Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Trending analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Creep response of the lunar crust in mare regions from an analysis of crater deformation

The settling trends of 318 lunar mare craters are compared with predictions of numerical finite-element models in order to determine the creep response of the upper lunar mare crust. No settling is evident in craters smaller than 5 km in diameter. Settling rates of larger craters increase as function of crater size in a manner suggesting a nonlinear lunar creep response corresponding to the power law epsilon = 8.3 x 10 to the minus 34th sigma squared where epsilon is the strain rate and sigma is the differential stress. However, the observed nonlinearity is probably an apparent nonlinearity resulting from the temperature-induced viscosity decrease with depth due to a lunar crustal temperature gradient of 3 C/km and a creep activation energy of 20 kcal/mole. It is concluded that creep in the lunar medium is essentially Newtonian, and that the effective viscosity of the upper lunar mare is (1.6 plus or minus 0.3) x 10 to the 25th poise.

Kunze, A. W. G.↗

Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere

The largest atmospheric temperature changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases are expected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where enhanced infrared cooling decreases the temperature. Ten-year (1980-1990) temperature trends at 55 km and 0.4 mb, derived using data from the ground-based lidar at Haute Provence, (France), and the SSU-instrument channel 47X on several satellites, are presented. These data show temperature decreases that are as large and in some cases exceed predictions based on current models. At 44 deg N, the ground-based lidar and satellite techniques give a negative trend of -0.10 + or - 0.04 percent per year and -0.14 + or - 0.02 percent per year, respectively. Agreement between these two data sets based on different measurement techniques gives confidence in the detected trends at this latitude. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data between 45 deg S and 45 deg N indicates a maximum decline of 0.16 percent per year near 30 deg N. A minimum trend decrease of 0.07 percent per year is detected between 20 and 30 deg S. Based on NOAA satellite radiance observations, these long-term temperature changes are larger than changes at any of the other stratospheric levels below 55 km monitored during this period.

Aikin, A. C.↗

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Andersen, S. B.↗

Overcoming Dimensionality Barriers in Satellite Data to Elucidate SPECTRAL-SPATIAL-TEMPORAL Trends in the Ocean

The weighted harmonic mean of spectral wavelengths can be used as an index of optical water types that share similar spectral signatures.This technique can be translated to relate spectral shape between sensors of varying spectral resolution.The output along a continuum of color values enables spatio-temporal analysis of subtle spectral shifts.Directional trends in absorption and backscatter data lend a hidden context to changes in water color. Conceptualization of multiple data dimensions is imperative as passive/active sensors grow increasingly sophisticated in nature.

Vandermeulen, Ryan↗

Interdisciplinary Investigations in Support of Project DI-MOD

Various concepts from time series analysis are used as the basis for the development of algorithms to assist in the analysis and interpretation of remote sensed imagery. An approach to trend detection that is based upon the fractal analysis of power spectrum estimates is presented. Additionally, research was conducted toward the development of a software architecture to support processing tasks associated with databases housing a variety of data. An algorithmic approach which provides for the automation of the state monitoring process is presented.

Starks, Scott A.↗

Fatigue and Damage Tolerance Analysis of a Hybrid Composite Tapered Flexbeam

The behavior of nonlinear tapered composite flexbeams under combined axial tension and cyclic bending loading was studied using coupon test specimens and finite element (FE) analyses. The flexbeams used a hybrid material system of graphite/epoxy and glass/epoxy and had internal dropped plies, dropped in an overlapping stepwise pattern. Two material configurations, differing only in the use of glass or graphite plies in the continuous plies near the midplane, were studied. Test specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter tail-rotor flexbeam and were tested in a hydraulic load frame under combined constant axialtension load and transverse cyclic bending loads. The first determination damage observed in the specimens occurred at the area around the tip of the outermost ply-drop group in the tapered region of the flexbeam, near the thick end. Delaminations grew slowly and stably, toward the thick end of the flexbeam, at the interfaces above and below the dropped-ply region. A 2D finite element model of the flexbeam was developed. The model was analyzed using a geometrically non-linear analysis with both the ANSYS and ABAQUS FE codes. The global responses of each analysis agreed well with the test results. The ANSYS model was used to calculate strain energy release rates (G) for delaminations initiating at two different ply-ending locations. The results showed that delaminations were more inclined to grow at the locations where they were observed in the test specimens. Both ANSYS and ABAQUS were used to calculate G values associated with delamination initiating at the observed location but growing in different interfaces, either above or below the ply-ending group toward the thick end, or toward the thin end from the tip of the resin pocket. The different analysis codes generated the same trends and comparable peak values, within 5-11 % for each delamination path. Both codes showed that delamination toward the thick region was largely mode II, and toward the thin region was predominantly mode I. The calculated peak G-values from either analysis predict delamination is most likely to occur along the same interface where it was observed in the test specimens. Calculated peak G values were used with material characterization data to calculate a curve relating the fatigue life of the specimens, N, to the applied transverse load, V, for a given constant axial load.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗

Scientific Impact of MODIS C5 Calibration Degradation and C6+ Improvements

The Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land and atmosphere data sets are scheduled for release in 2014. C6 contains significant revisions of the calibration approach to account for sensor aging. This analysis documents the presence of systematic temporal trends in the visible and near-infrared (500 m) bands of the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS Terra and, to lesser extent, in MODIS Aqua geophysical data sets. Sensor degradation is largest in the blue band (B3) of the MODIS sensor on Terra and decreases with wavelength. Calibration degradation causes negative global trends in multiple MODIS C5 products including the dark target algorithm's aerosol optical depth over land and Ångstrom exponent over the ocean, global liquid water and ice cloud optical thickness, as well as surface reflectance and vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As the C5 production will be maintained for another year in parallel with C6, one objective of this paper is to raise awareness of the calibration-related trends for the broad MODIS user community. The new C6 calibration approach removes major calibrations trends in the Level 1B (L1B) data. This paper also introduces an enhanced C6C calibration of the MODIS data set which includes an additional polarization correction (PC) to compensate for the increased polarization sensitivity of MODIS Terra since about 2007, as well as detrending and Terra- Aqua cross-calibration over quasi-stable desert calibration sites. The PC algorithm, developed by the MODIS ocean biology processing group (OBPG), removes residual scan angle, mirror side and seasonal biases from aerosol and surface reflectance (SR) records along with spectral distortions of SR. Using the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm over deserts, we have also developed a detrending and cross-calibration method which removes residual decadal trends on the order of several tenths of 1% of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance in the visible and near-infrared MODIS bands B1-B4, and provides a good consistency between the two MODIS sensors. MAIAC analysis over the southern USA shows that the C6C approach removed an additional negative decadal trend of Terra (Delta)NDVI approx.0.01 as compared to Aqua data. This change is particularly important for analysis of vegetation dynamics and trends in the tropics, e.g., Amazon rainforest, where the morning orbit of Terra provides considerably more cloud-free observations compared to the afternoon Aqua measurements.

Terra and Aqua↗

Thermal analysis considerations for large space structures

A number of issues and needs relative to thermal analysis of large space structures and space stations are discussed. Some indications of trends in the Langley thermal-structural analysis research program consistent with the issues and needs are also presented. The main heat transfer mechanism in space is radiation; consequently, there is a need for a strong thrust on improved radiation analysis capability. Also the important interactions among temperatures, deformations, and controls need to be accounted for. Finite element analysis capability seems to be lagging behind lumped-parameter capability or heat pipe analysis. The Langley plan will include improving radiation analysis capability, evaluating the errors involved in certain approximate analysis and modeling techniques for large space trusses, and continuing the development of integrated thermal-structural finite elements with an emphasis on radiation heat transfer. Work will be initiated to develop finite element analysis techniques for heat pipes. Finally, optimization research activities will be oriented toward methods to design flexible orbiting structures to account for thermal and thermal deformation requirements.

Adelman, H. M.↗

Analysis of a Multiprocessor Guidance Computer

The design of the next generation of spaceborne digital computers is described. It analyzes a possible multiprocessor computer configuration. For the analysis, a set of representative space computing tasks was abstracted from the Lunar Module Guidance Computer programs as executed during the lunar landing, from the Apollo program. This computer performs at this time about 24 concurrent functions, with iteration rates from 10 times per second to once every two seconds. These jobs were tabulated in a machine-independent form, and statistics of the overall job set were obtained. It was concluded, based on a comparison of simulation and Markov results, that the Markov process analysis is accurate in predicting overall trends and in configuration comparisons, but does not provide useful detailed information in specific situations. Using both types of analysis, it was determined that the job scheduling function is a critical one for efficiency of the multiprocessor. It is recommended that research into the area of automatic job scheduling be performed.

Maltach, E. G.↗

Theoretical and Experimental Evaluation of the Bond Strength Under Peeling Loads

Reliable applications of adhesively bonded joints require understanding of the stress distribution along the bond-line and the stresses that are responsible for the joint failure. To properly evaluate factors affecting peel strength, effects of defects such as voids on the stress distribution in the overlap region must be understood. In this work, the peel stress distribution in a single lap joint is derived using a strength of materials approach. The bonded joint is modeled as Euler-Bernoulli beams, bonded together with an adhesive. which is modeled as an elastic foundation which can resist both peel and shear stresses. It is found that for certain adhesive and adherend geometries and properties, a central void with the size up to 50 percent of the overlap length has negligible effect on the peak peel and shear stresses. To verify the solutions obtained from the model, the problem is solved again by using the finite element method and by treating the adherends and the adhesive as elastic materials. It is found that the model used in the analysis not only predicts the correct trend for the peel stress distribution but also gives rather surprisingly close results to that of the finite element analysis. It is also found that both shear and peel stresses can be responsible for the joint performance and when a void is introduced, both of these stresses can contribute to the joint failure as the void size increases. Acoustic emission (AE) activities of aluminum-adhesive-aluminum specimens with different void sizes were monitored. The AE ringdown counts and energy were very sensitive and decreased significantly with the void size. It was observed that the AE events were shifting towards the edge of the overlap where the maximum peeling and shearing stresses were occurring as the void size increased.

Nayeb-Hashemi, Hamid↗

DORIS Satellite Phase Center Determination and Consequences on the Derived Scale of the Terrestrial Reference Frame

This slide presentation reports on the analysis of several years of Delft Object-oriented Radar Interferometric Software (Doris) data undertaken to estimate daily determination of satellite antenna phase center corrections. This was done on a satellite by satellite basis. For each DORIS satellite, we considered long-term time series of such individual estimations, looking for possible biases, discontinuities, trends or annual signals. The analysis compared DORIS to GPS estimates for common satellites (Jason and TOPEX/Poseidon).

terrestrial reference frame scale↗

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

Investigation of Rotor Performance and Loads of a UH-60A Individual Blade Control System

Wind tunnel measurements of performance, loads, and vibration of a full-scale UH-60A Black Hawk main rotor with an individual blade control (IBC) system are compared with calculations obtained using the comprehensive helicopter analysis CAMRAD II and a coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 analysis. Measured data show a 5.1% rotor power reduction (8.6% rotor lift to effective-drag ratio increase) using 2/rev IBC actuation with 2.0 amplitude at = 0.4. At the optimum IBC phase for rotor performance, IBC actuator force (pitch link force) decreased, and neither flap nor chord bending moments changed significantly. CAMRAD II predicts the rotor power variations with the IBC phase reasonably well at = 0.35. However, the correlation degrades at = 0.4. Coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 shows excellent correlation with the measured rotor power variations with the IBC phase at both = 0.35 and = 0.4. Maximum reduction of IBC actuator force is better predicted with CAMRAD II, but general trends are better captured with the coupled analysis. The correlation of vibratory hub loads is generally poor by both methods, although the coupled analysis somewhat captures general trends.

Yeo, Hyeonsoo↗

Investigation of Rotor Performance and Loads of a UH-60A Individual Blade Control System

Wind tunnel measurements of performance, loads, and vibration of a full-scale UH-60A Black Hawk main rotor with an individual blade control (IBC) system are compared with calculations obtained using the comprehensive helicopter analysis CAMRAD II and a coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 analysis. Measured data show a 5.1% rotor power reduction (8.6% rotor lift to effective-drag ratio increase) using 2/rev IBC actuation with 2.0. amplitude at u = 0.4. At the optimum IBC phase for rotor performance, IBC actuator force (pitch link force) decreased, and neither flap nor chord bending moments changed significantly. CAMRAD II predicts the rotor power variations with IBC phase reasonably well at u = 0.35. However, the correlation degrades at u = 0.4. Coupled CAMRAD II/OVERFLOW 2 shows excellent correlation with the measured rotor power variations with IBC phase at both u = 0.35 and u = 0.4. Maximum reduction of IBC actuator force is better predicted with CAMRAD II, but general trends are better captured with the coupled analysis. The correlation of vibratory hub loads is generally poor by both methods, although the coupled analysis somewhat captures general trends.

Yeo, Hyeonsoo↗

Integrated Physics-based Modeling and Experiments for Improved Prediction of Combustion Dynamics in Low-Emission Systems

Concurrent simulation and experiment was undertaken to assess the ability of a hybrid RANS-LES model to predict combustion dynamics in a single-element lean direct-inject (LDI) combustor showing self-excited instabilities. High frequency pressure modes produced by Fourier and modal decomposition analysis were compared quantitatively, and trends with equivalence ratio and inlet temperature were compared qualitatively. High frequency OH PLIF and PIV measurements were also taken. Submodels for chemical kinetics and primary and secondary atomization were also tested against the measured behavior. For a point-wise comparison, the amplitudes matched within a factor of two. The dependence on equivalence ratio was matched. Preliminary results from simulation using an 18-reaction kinetics model indicated instability amplitudes closer to measurement. Analysis of the simulations suggested a band of modes around 1400 Hz were due to a vortex bubble breakdown and a band of modes around 6 kHz were due to a precessing vortex core hydrodynamic instability. The primary needs are directly coupled and validated ab initio models of the atomizer free surface flow and the primary atomization processes, and more detailed study of the coupling between the 3D swirling flow and the local thermoacoustics in the diverging venturi section.

combustion↗

Tropospheric ozone - Seasonal behavior, trends, and anthropogenic influence

In the present analysis of tropospheric ozone data, attention is given to spatial and temporal variations. Two modes of seasonal behavior are noted for surface ozone at mid-latitudes: a broad summer maximum within a few hundred km of industrial/urban areas in Europe and the U.S., and a minimum in summer or autumn in sparcely populated regions that are remote from industrial activity. These and limited historical data indicate that summertime concentrations of ozone near the surface in the rural areas of Europe and the U.S. may have increased between 20 and 100 percent since the 1940s. It is suggested that the summer maximum in ozone and other observed trends are due to photochemical production associated with anthropogenic emissions of NO(x), hydrocarbons, and CO from fossil fuel combustion.

Logan, J. A.↗

Variability of Solar Radiation under Cloud-Free Skies in China: The Role of Aerosols

In this study, we analyzed long-term surface global and diffuse solar radiation, aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), and relative humidity (RH) from China. Our analysis reveals that much of China experienced significant decreases in global solar radiation (GSR) and increases in diffuse solar radiation under cloud-free skies between the 1960s and 1980s. With RH and aerosol SSA being rather constant during that time period, we suggest that the increasing aerosol loading from emission of pollutants is responsible for the observed reduced GSR and increased diffuse radiation in cloud-free skies. Although pollutant emissions continue to increase after the 1980s, the increment of aerosol SSA since 1980s can partly explain the transition of GSR from a decreasing trend to no apparent trend around that time. Preliminary analysis is also provided on the potential role of RH in affecting the global and diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth surface.

Qian, Yun↗