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Cost Assessment and Validation Task Force on the International Space Station

The Cost Assessment and Validation (CAV) Task Force was established for independent review and assessment of cost, schedule and partnership performance on the International Space Station (ISS) Program. The CAV Task Force has made the following key findings: The International Space Station Program has made notable and reasonable progress over the past four years in defining and executing a very challenging and technically complex effort; The Program, size, complexity, and ambitious schedule goals were beyond that which could be reasonably achieved within the $2.1 billion annual cap or $17.4 billion total cap; A number of critical risk elements are likely to have an adverse impact on the International Space Station cost and schedule; The schedule uncertainty associated with Russian implementation of joint Partnership agreements is the major threat to the ISS Program; The Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 budget submission to Congress is not adequate to execute the baseline ISS Program, cover normal program, growth, and address the known critical risks. Additional annual funding of between $130 million and $250 million will be required; and Completion of ISS assembly is likely to be delayed from, one to three years beyond December 2003.

Source record↗

Trade Space Assessment for Human Exploration Mission Design

Many human space exploration mission architecture assessments have been performed over the years by diverse organizations and individuals. Direct comparison of metrics among these studies is extremely difficult due to widely varying assumptions involving projected technology readiness, mission goals, acceptable risk criteria, and socio-political environments. However, constant over the years have been the physical laws of celestial dynamics and rocket propulsion systems. A finite diverse yet finite architecture trade space should exist which captures methods of human exploration - particularly of the Moon and Mars - by delineating technical trades and cataloging the physically realizable options of each. A particular architectural approach should then have a traceable path through this "trade tree". It should be pointed out that not every permutation of paths will result in a physically realizable mission approach, but cataloging options that have been examined by past studies should help guide future analysis. This effort was undertaken in two phases by multi-center NASA working groups in the spring and summer of 2004 using more than thirty years of past studies to "flesh out" the Moon-Mars human exploration trade space. The results are presented, not as a "trade tree", which would be unwieldy, but as a "menu" of potential technical options as a function of mission phases. This is envisioned as a tool to aid future mission designers by offering guidance to relevant past analyses.

Joosten, B. Kent↗

Overview of Ablation Modeling at NASA

The ambitious scientific payload and crew delivery goals of imminent and future NASA missions are associated with challenging and complex vehicle entries. Advanced ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials will be re- quired for such missions, and, as such, a robust ablation modeling capability is critical to assessing performance by bridging the wide gap between ground testing and entry conditions. The traditional ablation modeling toolset - contin- uum thermal/materials response analysis - has grown recently to include high-fidelity, multi-scale, and multi-physics techniques that provide a more complete description of the rich physics and chemistry of ablation to better drive down risks related to extreme entries. The present talk provides a snapshot of ongoing NASA activities in ablation mod- eling, including a review of the current technical capabilities and tools at play within the Agency, the important role academia plays in supporting technical area advancements, and how such internal and external investments intersect with upcoming missions to drive down risks.

Justin Haskins↗

Improving and Automating Building Model Data Exchange

There are many instances throughout a project’s lifecycle where there arises a need for quick and accurate risk assessment of building designs. For example, an unexpected design change during construction may necessitate structural engineers to perform a seismic risk assessment on analytical models of the updated building design using high fidelity structural analysis software, such as ANSYS or Abaqus. However, the efficiency of such workflows often depends upon the interoperability of architectural design software and structural analysis software. When the quality of this interoperability is lacking or even non-existent, the efficiency of virtual engineering workflows is hampered, which increases project costs. A McGraw Hill industry survey of professional users of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies found that there is high demand for BIM interoperability for structural analysis, but that the value/difficulty ratio is currently too low for practical use. There have been efforts by the academic community to facilitate model data exchange between the architectural design and structural analysis domains, but such solutions have not been widely adopted by industry, face technical challenges, and oftentimes are limited in applicability for users of various BIM software. Therefore, INL is developing capabilities to improve, automate, and generalize model data exchange between architectural BIM software (e.g., Revit) and structural analysis software (e.g., SAP2000, ANSYS). The goal is to help expedite and automate as much of the pre-processing step for creating analytical models in finite element analysis software as reasonably as possible. Such a "BIM-to-FEA" conversion tool should provide direct benefit to end-users through accuracy, automation, quick turn-around, and wide applicability. To generalize the application of this BIM-to-FEA conversion tool and increase its useability among the many different commercial BIM software currently used by industry, the program is being developed with the concept of openBIM. OpenBIM is the application of non-proprietary, open data standards that allow for BIM model data exchange in a format that is accessible, retainable, and useable for all users. The most widely used open, non-proprietary data exchange format for BIM is the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) schema. IFC is developed by buildingSMART international and is ISO certified (ISO 16739-1:2018). The BIM-to-FEA conversion tool is being developed for compatibility with typical commercial building designs of steel framed structures. The tool is currently capable of importing architectural BIM data of framed building structures, recognizing and extracting the aspects of the model that are required for structural analysis, adjusting the connectivity of frame members, and finally exporting to an analytical model stored in the IFC format. The exported IFC analytical model can then be imported into various openBIM compliant software, such as SAP2000. Such capabilities have already been tested on commercial software, as shown above, and continue to be improved. Work is underway to test the conversion on various commercial BIM software, develop a user-friendly interface, incorporate the program into the broader DeepLynx data warehouse project being developed by INL, and to eventually open-source the tool for the benefit of the community. Future development of the tool envisions the ability for efficient iterative risk assessment of generative building designs, all within a workflow utilizing open-source tools. One such open-source tool will be MOOSE, an advanced finite element analysis tool developed at INL. The conversion tool will also branch out from typical commercial building designs and will aim to incorporate nuclear construction. The aim will be to convert both structural and non-structural components of nuclear facilities, such as curved concrete containment structures and piping systems, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of nuclear waste disposal in space, phase 3. Volume 2: Technical report

The options, reference definitions and/or requirements currently envisioned for the total nuclear waste disposal in space mission are summarized. The waste form evaluation and selection process is documented along with the physical characteristics of the iron nickel-base cermet matrix chosen for disposal of commercial and defense wastes. Safety aspects of radioisotope thermal generators, the general purpose heat source, and the Lewis Research Center concept for space disposal are assessed as well as the on-pad catastrophic accident environments for the uprated space shuttle and the heavy lift launch vehicle. The radionuclides that contribute most to long-term risk of terrestrial disposal were determined and the effects of resuspension of fallout particles from an accidental release of waste material were studied. Health effects are considered. Payload breakup and rescue technology are discussed as well as expected requirements for licensing, supporting research and technology, and safety testing.

Rice, E. E.↗

X-57 Systems Engineering Lessons Learned

The X-57 Maxwell is an electric aircraft based on a 4-passenger, twin engine Tecnam P2006T General Aviation aircraft. The X-57 project originally envisioned a straightforward integration of commercial-off-the-shelf hardware components and software into a novel configuration to demonstrate the aerodynamic and performance benefits of Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP). The project was initially started with a high-risk venture capitalist approach under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, which led to an initial philosophy of Project Management “light” (which was then interpreted as Systems Engineering (SE) “light”). As the project matured, it was forced to transition to one with increasing SE-rigor as the project scope changed, hardware and software deficiencies were found, and the team realized the magnitude of the technical and integration challenges. In hindsight, these technical challenges came in part from an overly optimistic technology readiness assessment (TRA) at the beginning of the project, which resulted in the project assuming that little to no subsystem development would be required. The project’s approach to systems engineering evolved throughout three separate informal phases of the project as it underwent two key transitions as a result of the team wrestling with the technical challenges and resultant changing project scope. This paper discusses the assumptions, approaches, and challenges encountered from a Systems Engineering standpoint in each of the three informal phases of the X-57 project. This paper also provides recommendations on how future projects can apply Systems Engineering best practices upfront along with a realistic TRA to aid projects that find themselves with similar challenges.

Systems Engineering↗

Generation and Characteristics of Plutonium and Americium Contaminated Soils Underlying Waste Sites at Hanford

In 2012, a Hanford site-wide review on plutonium and americium geochemistry (Cantrell and Felmy 2012) identified remaining research challenges associated with defining scientifically defensible end-states and supporting remediation decisions. Three research challenges were identified in this review: 1. Determine the transformations of Hanford Site sediments in response to changes in waste/groundwater composition. Significant mineralogical transformations can take place when wastes contact Hanford sediments. These transformations can significantly impact the solubility and acidic adsorption of plutonium and americium and possibly result in the generation of pseudo colloids that could facilitate plutonium/americium migration. 2. Assess the impact of changes in waste/groundwater chemistry on the potential for plutonium/americium solubilization or colloid formation. Changes in waste or groundwater chemistry can greatly impact the chemical form or speciation of plutonium and americium. Knowledge of plutonium and americium speciation will be crucial in terms of evaluating the potential for solubilization, adsorption or remobilization of adsorbed complexes, colloid formation, and colloid interactions with sedimentary minerals. 3. Establish the role of organic complexants and/or non-aqueous solvents in the transport of plutonium/americium in the deep subsurface. Plutonium has been found to be associated with TBP and the presence of non-aqueous solvents, at least in certain Z-9 sediments. It will be important to establish the role of non-aqueous solvent in past movement of plutonium and its potential role in future mobility. This report provides the technical basis for interpreting data obtained from field samples and will allow waste chemistry impacts on plutonium/americium re-mobilization mechanisms to be assessed. This report helps address the three previously identified research challenges – sediment transformations, solution chemistry impacts, and the role of organic complexants and solvents – in plutonium and americium contaminated Hanford sediments. Ultimately, these and potential future studies will lead to a defensible description of plutonium and americium mobility in relation to waste site conditions that can be interpreted to balance the risks posed by their migration and envisioned remediation activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long‐term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in 2004 of evaluating the tolerance limits and safe operating bands called for in the Bioastronautics Strategy. Over the next several years, the concept of the "operating bands" were turned into Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS), developed by the technical resources of the SLSD at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). These standards were developed and reviewed at the SLSD and then presented to the OCHMO for acceptance. The first set of standards was published in 2007 as the NASA‐STD‐3001, Volume 1, Crew Health that elaborated standards for several physiological areas such as cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, radiation exposure and nutrition. Volume 2, Human Factors, Habitability and Human Health was published in 2011, along with development guidance in the Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH). Taken together, the SFHSS Volumes 1 and 2, and the HIDH replaced the NASA‐STD‐3000 with new standards and revisions of the older document. Three other changes were also taking place that facilitated the development of the human system risk management approach. In 2005, the life sciences research and development portfolio underwent a comprehensive review through the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) that resulted in the reformulation of the Bioastronautics Program into Human Research Program (HRP) that was focused on appropriate mitigation results for high priority human health risks. The baseline HRP budget was established in August 2005. In addition, the OCHMO formulated the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) in 2006 that established the position of the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) at the NASA JSC along with other key technical disciplines, and the OCHMO became the responsible office for the SFHSS as noted above. The final change was the establishment in 2008 of the Human System Risk Board (HSRB), chaired by the CMO with representation from the HRP, SLSD management and technical experts. The HSRB then began to review all human system risks, established a comprehensive risk management and configuration management plan and data sharing policy. These major developments of standards, the HRP, the HMTA and a forum for review of human system risks (HSRB) facilitated the integration of human research, medical operations, systems engineering and many other disciplines in the comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB began a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30 where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit 6 and 12 months, deep space sortie for 30 days and 1 year, a one year lunar mission, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence base for that risk, the available risk mitigations, traceability to the SFHSS and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the HRP, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets. These risk assessments were completed for 6 DRMs in December of 2014 and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB will review each risk at least annually and especially when new information is available that must be considered for effective risk mitigation. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Davis, Jeffrey↗

NASA safety program activities in support of the Space Exploration Initiatives Nuclear Propulsion program

The activities of the joint NASA/DOE/DOD Nuclear Propulsion Program Technical Panels have been used as the basis for the current development of safety policies and requirements for the Space Exploration Initiatives (SEI) Nuclear Propulsion Technology development program. The Safety Division of the NASA Office of Safety and Mission Quality has initiated efforts to develop policies for the safe use of nuclear propulsion in space through involvement in the joint agency Nuclear Safety Policy Working Group (NSPWG), encouraged expansion of the initial policy development into proposed programmatic requirements, and suggested further expansion into the overall risk assessment and risk management process for the NASA Exploration Program. Similar efforts are underway within the Department of Energy to ensure the safe development and testing of nuclear propulsion systems on Earth. This paper describes the NASA safety policy related to requirements for the design of systems that may operate where Earth re-entry is a possibility. The expected plan of action is to support and oversee activities related to the technology development of nuclear propulsion in space, and support the overall safety and risk management program being developed for the NASA Exploration Program.

Sawyer, J. C., Jr.↗

Configuration Management Process Assessment Strategy

Purpose: To propose a strategy for assessing the development and effectiveness of configuration management systems within Programs, Projects, and Design Activities performed by technical organizations and their supporting development contractors. Scope: Various entities CM Systems will be assessed dependent on Project Scope (DDT&E), Support Services and Acquisition Agreements. Approach: Model based structured against assessing organizations CM requirements including best practices maturity criteria. The model is tailored to the entity being assessed dependent on their CM system. The assessment approach provides objective feedback to Engineering and Project Management of the observed CM system maturity state versus the ideal state of the configuration management processes and outcomes(system). center dot Identifies strengths and risks versus audit gotcha's (findings/observations). center dot Used "recursively and iteratively" throughout program lifecycle at select points of need. (Typical assessments timing is Post PDR/Post CDR) center dot Ideal state criteria and maturity targets are reviewed with the assessed entity prior to an assessment (Tailoring) and is dependent on the assessed phase of the CM system. center dot Supports exit success criteria for Preliminary and Critical Design Reviews. center dot Gives a comprehensive CM system assessment which ultimately supports configuration verification activities.*

Henry, Thad↗

Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study

The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NARUC grid data sharing playbook

In 2022, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) launched an initiative to support its members in addressing issues related to grid data sharing. The Grid Data Sharing Collaborative was funded by the DOE’s Office of Electricity and Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). NARUC invited programmatic, policy, technical, and cybersecurity subject matter experts from public utility commissions, utilities, non-governmental organizations, energy service companies, and DOE to join the two-year Grid Data Sharing Collaborative to help develop a flexible framework for states to use as a starting point when navigating complex decision-making inherent in grid data sharing. The framework took shape through a series of intensive workshops during which Collaborative participants explored illustrative use cases to identify data needs, articulate the benefits and risks of sharing such data, and assess the trade-offs. Along the way, participants offered suggestions for how the framework could be used in practice. The purpose of this playbook is to describe the elements of the Grid Data Sharing Framework and to begin supporting its implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Securing Solar for the Grid (S2G) (Final Project Report) [Slides]

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded project Securing Solar for the Grid (S2G) from FY22-24. The project scope included development and dissemination of standards' requirements, best practices, equipment testing procedures, assessment tools, as well as education and training materials for cyber defense, posture and maturity tailored to solar technologies. The outcomes for this work include: co-led the development of cybersecurity certification standard (UL2941), co-led the development of cybersecurity guide (IEEE1547.3), development of recommendations for supply chain cybersecurity, and development of cybersecurity risk profiles and recommendations for DERMS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrated Military Systems

The Integrated Military Systems (IMS) Center at Sandia National Laboratories is a technical systems integrator of high-risk, high-impact systems. It provides cutting-edge technologies, subsystems, solutions, and products that provide a competitive advantage at every point of engagement. Building on more than six decades of experience, IMS seeks to pursue and provide solutions to the most challenging national security issues. We leverage technical capabilities from the Laboratories' core mission and innovatively apply technology to defense problems. IMS' diverse capabilities produce revolutionary technologies in the areas such as precision strike and defense, autonomy, NG&C, directed energy, signal processing/ATR, lethality and threat assessment, and systems engineering. Our talented engineers and staff take a problem from initial design all the way through testing and fielding.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

System reliability and risk assessment task goals and status

The major focus for continued development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) codes is in support of system testing and certification of advanced propulsion systems. Propulsion system testing has evolved over the years from tests designed to show success, to tests designed to reveal reliability issues before service use. Such test conditions as performance envelope corners, high rotor imbalance, power dwells, and overspeed tests are designed to shake out problems that can be associated with low and high cycle fatigue, creep, and stress rupture, bearing durability, and the like. Subsystem testing supports system certification by standing as an early evaluation of the same durability and reliability concerns as for the entire system. The NESSUS software system is being further developed to support the definition of rigorous subsystem and system test definition and reliability certification. The principal technical issues are outlined which are related to system reliability, including key technology issues such as failure mode synergism, sequential failure mechanisms, and fault tree definition.

Cruse, T. A.↗

Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) telescope overview

The Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) will be the first true infrared observatory in space, building upon the technical and scientific experience gained through its two NASA survey-oriented predecessors: the Infrared Astronomical Satellite and the Cosmic Background Explorer. During its minimum five year lifetime, the SIRTF will perform pointed scientific observations at wavelengths from 1.8 to 1200 microns with an increase in sensitivity over previous missions of several orders of magnitude. This paper discusses a candidate design for the SIRTF telescope, encompassing optics, cryostat, and instrument accommodation, which has been undertaken to provide a fulcrum for the development of functional requirements, interface definition, risk assessment and cost. The telescope optics employ a baffled Ritchey-Chretien Cassegrain system with a 1-m class primary mirror, an active secondary mirror, and a stationary facetted tertiary mirror. The optics are embedded in a large superfluid He cryostat designed to maintain the entire telescope-instrument system at temperatures below 3 K.

Schember, Helene↗

Development of the J-2X Engine for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle: Building on the Apollo Program for Lunar Return Missions

The United States (U.S.) Vision for Space Exploration has directed NASA to develop two new launch vehicles for sending humans to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. In January 2006, NASA streamlined its hardware development approach for replacing the Space Shuttle after it is retired in 2010. Benefits of this approach include reduced programmatic and technical risks and the potential to return to the Moon by 2020, by developing the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) propulsion elements now, with full extensibility to future Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) lunar systems. The Constellation Program selected the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne J-2X engine to power the Ares I Upper Stage Element and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage. This decision was reached during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study and confirmed after the Exploration Launch Projects Office performed a variety of risk analyses, commonality assessments, and trade studies. This paper narrates the evolution of that decision; describes the performance capabilities expected of the J-2X design, including potential commonality challenges and opportunities between the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles; and provides a current status of J-2X design, development, and hardware testing activities. This paper also explains how the J-2X engine effort mitigates risk by testing existing engine hardware and designs; building on the Apollo Program (1961 to 1975), the Space Shuttle Program (1972 to 2010); and consulting with Apollo-era experts to derive other lessons lived to deliver a human-rated engine that is on an aggressive development schedule, with its first demonstration flight in 2012.

Greene, William D.↗