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Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Unattended Single Channel Analyzer (USCA) FY20 Summary Report

In FY20 LANL was funded to design, fabricate, test and document an instrument that can be used by the IAEA for gamma ray measurements in scintillator applications. This instrument, the Unattended Single Channel Analyzer (USCA), will be part of the family of IAEA unattended instruments and completes the suite of most used data acquisition needs provided by the previously designed UNAP instrument. The USCA is designed to meet all the same IAEA requirements designed into the UMSR and UDCM. The new instrument has the same look and feel making it simple for agency staff to move between instruments. This project taps into all the design functions developed during the UMSR and UDCM development. Along with the design and fabrication of a USCA, this project included production of a prototype for IAEA testing and a complete set of documentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Final Reports of the 2020 Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop

For the past ten years, the workshop has been bringing a highly talented and diverse group of student every summer. Students work in teams of two, alongside typically two mentors, on research projects reflecting a broad range of topics within computational physics. In addition, students attend a series of lectures on topics within computational physics, facility tours, and networking events. The program lasts ten weeks, with this year’s workshop running from June 8 to August 14. At the end of the summer, students give a final presentation, along with a written report. Those reports are what make up the remaining sections of this document. Admission to the workshop is by a competitive process, with the mentors forming the selection committee. One of the important accomplishments of the workshop has been to create a student pipeline from diverse schools that sometimes are not normally tapped by LANL recruiting. Many workshop students maintain a continuing relationship with LANL, returning as students interns, post-doctoral researchers, and staff members. Additionally, workshop alumni act as ambassadors for LANL. The result is a wider awareness both of LANL as a potential employer, and of the technical work that happens at LANL. This year, the workshop format was changed in several ways, in order to accommodate the off-site, virtual format. Students worked on LANL virtual desktop systems remotely, also accessing LANL HPC resources. In order to facilitate communication, student were given accounts on both Webex, a video teleconferencing platform, and Mattermost, an online team collaboration and chat platform, similar to Slack. Daily communication between students and mentors was primarily on Mattermost, with Webex conferencing as needed. The lectures were all done on Webex. Given the difficulty of the virtual format, and a concern that students might have video teleconferencing burn-out after an academic semester largely moved to that format, all lectures were optional this year. In spite of this, the attendance was generally high. Lecturers were asked to try to move to a more high-level, ”What is it?,” format. Once again, the students did a tremendous job. Over the course of ten weeks, they did important research across a staggering array of disciplines. The following pages contain the final report for each team’s research efforts. We hope you will find reading them as exciting as it was for us to produce them.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cyber Secure Sensor Network for Fossil Fuel Power Generation Assets Monitoring

The energy sector is undergoing digital transformation which is to say more and more power generation assets have become automated and connected to the internet. The connected sensors can tap into plants to monitor the health of assets and manage fleets remotely. These are just some of the benefits digitalization is bringing to the power industry. Within a power plant, control systems are no longer concerned with one system or one piece of equipment, but rather whole fleet of assets inter-connected with smart sensors which have the function of continuously monitoring and transmitting real-time operational data to operators. These connected systems will form a part of the industrial internet of things (IIoT). The big data scenarios provide benefits of performing system prognostics and optimization which is a key selling point of power plant digitalization.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

“Mirror” magnet experiment for quench studies, quench analysis techniques development and in support of superconducting magnet modeling

In order to progress on various research points related to superconducting magnets, we suggest performing series of tests with induced and natural quenches on a mirror magnet, probably using a “11 T” coil. The “mirror” is to have voltage taps instrumented on half the strands, on both coil ends. It is to be instrumented with multiple spot-heaters, of the order of ten, in designated pole-turn areas. Instrumentation is to include quench antenna array facing the inner coil surface, as well as acoustic sensors on the inner layer pole. Further, acoustic sensors at the magnet ends and an acoustic calibration transducer are to be installed. Thus, we are to test sensitivity and precision of acoustic and quench antenna (QA) array sensors, both at close proximity to the coil, and we are to test and commission acoustic on-magnet real-time “calibration”. New or extended DAQ will be tested as well. In addition to diagnostic development, the purpose of the magnet experiment is to investigate current redistribution in the coil, both during quenching and in operating conditions; to assess voltage build up across strands and in the coil segments during quenching, to explore voltage signature differentiation between different type of quenches; to improve modeling of processes during quenching and for magnet design purposes. In this experiment, we expect to be able to characterize the processes during a quench in unprecedented details.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Solar Plus: Strategies for Oregon and Washington

The Solar Plus initiative convened leaders from the State Energy Offices in Oregon and Washington, plus representatives from utilities, regulators, the solar industry and community-based organizations to tap into the region’s unique opportunities to develop distributed solar with an emphasis on equity and inclusion of vulnerable communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Update on Nuclear Energy Projects and Plans in Ukraine (Meeting Report)

Following the 1986 disastrous accident at Chernobyl, gaining independence following the fall of the former Soviet Union, two revolutions, and on-going Russian intervention, Ukrainea is seeking to expand its use of commercial nuclear energy and to further reduce its dependence on Russia for energy. Nuclear energy in Ukraine has made a significant contribution toward achieving sustainable development and social goals. Ukraine is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and nuclear is a cornerstone of the country’s effort to combat the effects. With broad support from the U.S. government, Ukraine is cooperating with the U.S. on fresh nuclear fuel supply, civilian nuclear security, outage optimization, spent fuel storage, and future nuclear technology. And is looking to tap U.S. expertise on plant management, and electric grid operations and expansion. NEIc hosted this virtual event to provide an update on nuclear energy projects and plans in Ukraine. Featured speakers included Yaroslav Demchenkov, Deputy Minister of Energy, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister – Trade Representative, Petro Kotin, CEO, Energoatom,d and Ann K. Ganzer, Senior Bureau Official, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Dept. of State. Maria Korsnick, NEI CEO, moderated the discussion. About forty individuals attended representing the Ukraine and U.S. governments, and U.S. suppliers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Final Reports of the 2021 Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop

Since 2011, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop has been bringing together a highly talented and diverse group of students every summer. Students work in teams of two, alongside typically two mentors, on research projects reflecting a broad range of topics within computational physics. In addition, students attend a series of lectures on topics within computational physics, facility tours, and networking events. The program lasts ten weeks, with this year’s workshop running from June 7 to August 13. At the end of the summer, students give a final presentation, along with a written report. Those reports are what make up the remaining sections of this document. Admission to the workshop is by a competitive process, with the mentors forming the selection committee. One of the important accomplishments of the workshop has been to create a student pipeline from diverse schools that sometimes are not normally tapped by LANL recruiting. Many workshop students maintain a continuing relationship with LANL, returning as student interns, post-doctoral researchers, and staff members. Additionally, workshop alumni act as ambassadors for LANL. The result is a wider awareness both of LANL as a potential employer, and of the technical work that happens at LANL. This year, the workshop was once again in an off-site, virtual format. Students worked on LANL virtual desktop systems remotely, also accessing LANL HPC resources. In order to facilitate communication, student were given accounts on both Webex, a video teleconferencing platform, and Mattermost, an online team collaboration and chat platform, similar to Slack. Daily communication between students and mentors was primarily on Mattermost, with Webex conferencing as needed. The lectures were all done on Webex. Given the difficulty of the virtual format, and a concern that students might have video teleconferencing burn-out, all lectures were optional this year. In spite of this, the attendance was generally high. Lecturers were asked to try to move to a more high-level, ”What is it?,” format. Once again, the students did a tremendous job. Over the course of ten weeks, they did important research across a staggering array of disciplines. The following pages contain the final report for each team’s research efforts. Enjoy!

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Radiation Hardened Foam Cold Test Plan – Phase-I: Foam Adhesion, Contamination Fixation, Moisture Stresses, Pipe Cutting, and Thermal Profile Testing

This document outlines the Phase-I test objectives and implementation plan for a down-selective foam fixative technology intended to facilitate activities in support of the Savannah River Site (SRS) F/H labs deactivation and decommissioning (D&D) efforts. It is a collaborative effort between Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), Florida International University (FIU), and the SRS F/H labs team intended to test and evaluate the potential of an intumescent, fire-retardant foam in mitigating the release of contamination during dismantling operations on radioactively contaminated piping in legacy facilities. The cold test plan addresses specific requirements highlighted by site and safety personnel and will be executed in FIU’s Outdoor Test and Evaluation Facility using a mock-up that replicates the operational conditions at the proposed hot test location at F/H labs. Results from the cold test plan will inform the hot test at F/H labs, which will use the foam fixative to confine and/or isolate residual contamination within a 3-dimensional void space of Hastelloy C-22 piping designated for removal from the site and transported to a proper disposal facility. Phase-I testing will address eight test objectives: (1) evaluation of the adhesion and bonding properties of foam fixative in piping, (2) evaluation of the adhesion of the foam fixative in piping under varying moisture conditions, (3) determination of the heat profile of the foam fixative during curing, (4) determination of the relationship between pipe diameter and foam fixative quantity, (5) determination of the internal pipe pressure after foam deployment and curing, (6) development of a leak test standard operating procedure to test for the effectiveness of the foam plug, (7) initiation of a literature review to determine if using a hot tap is a viable method to deliver foam into piping, and (8) initiation of a 10-foot mock up test that will be used in Phase-II cold testing. The cold test will be conducted at FIU and all testing activities will comply with SRNL Conduct of R&D Protocols (SRNL-IM-2020-00019).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DC-AC Tool: Fully Automating the Acquisition of AC Power Flow Solution

DC2AC is an automated tool for achieving a converged AC power flow solution from any dispatch, e.g., determined using DC power flow model based optimal power flow. The entire process is free of human interference. It is usually encountered in practice that, even with a DC power flow solution, acquiring the solved AC power flow solution, if exists, sometimes could be a challenging task, especially during the planning stage. It is also difficult to distinguish the unsolvable cases from diverging iterations. Manual adjustments to approach the desired power flow condition has been largely relied on in the past using lots of engineering heuristics. This tool provides a systematic way to first achieve a solvable AC power flow case by modifying the power flow condition, and then try to track the AC power flow solution while gradually removing the adopted changes. If all adopted changes can be completely removed, then the original AC power flow solution is obtained. Otherwise, insights for actionable controls are derived to help operation and planning. Currently, this tool has been implemented in Python using SIEMENS PTI PSS/E as power flow solver, where only adjusting generator terminal voltage set point is considered as an available means to try to turn an unsolved power flow to a solved one. In future, more means should be considered, including the operation of tap-changing transformers, switched shunts and redispatch of active power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Employee Spotlight: Carlos Archuleta -- Bring on the baritone

A crowded theater grows silent as two performers engage in a moment filled with tension. Carlos Archuleta of Nuclear Materials Science (MST-16) portrays Tenorio in Hector Armienta’s $\textit{Bless Me, Ultima}$, an opera based upon the novel by Rudolfo Anaya. Tapping into his acting acumen, Carlos channels the malicious personality of a saloon-keeper and likely warlock named Tenorio. Tenorio is an embodiment of evil, and throughout the opera he serves as the antagonist against Ultima, the story’s main character. When Carlos begins to sing, his thundering voice reverberates across the crowd, delivering the menace of such a malevolent personality. A talented and versatile baritone, as a youngster Carlos had a strong interest in music, but in a genre decidedly different than opera.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations. To make advancements in all the aforementioned scientific areas, many technical aspects need to be more thoroughly studied and deeply understood in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES). The unique dynamics inherent in a discrete event modeling approach, by their very nature, intersect and influence the entire stack of the computing system, including (a) the unique nature of the instruction sets exercised in PDES workloads without a predominance of high-precision floating point operations, (b) virtual time-constrained multi-threaded execution of many logical processes per processor, (c) extremely variable and difficult to predict network traffic characteristics, (d) interfaces and inter-dependencies with machine learning and artificial intelligence codes at higher software layers, and (e) highly challenging load balancing needs, especially in effectively accounting for accelerated/extremely heterogeneous computing in current and future high-performance computing systems. Efficient and accurate parallel execution of PDES workloads is also dominated by challenges in dealing with their asynchronous concurrency fundamentally present at the model level. Conservative synchronization, optimistic/speculative synchronization, and their hybrid schemes open new questions in fundamental computer science with respect to reversibility of computation and prediction (lookahead) of behaviors inherent within model codes. On the implementation front, there are relatively few scalable, general-purpose parallel discrete event simulators in the world, and even fewer have been studied on emerging hardware platforms. To enable scientific advances using PDES, the research needs in computer science must also be pursued and met in the intersection of the algorithmic and hardware-aware aspects of scalable PDES engines. This report is aimed at capturing a computer science-oriented view of this important area of research in PDES, presenting a sample of important applications with their inherent discrete event technology elements. Needs are outlined in core areas of parallel discrete event research as well as cross-cutting directions in computer science research that positively impact scientific advancements across several important application areas. A selection of priority research opportunities in advanced computing for PDES is identified to serve as reference for key research topics and their order of importance for scientific advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fracture Adjacent Matrix Permeability: Insights from a Direct Experimental Approach

Description of a measurement technique, using a triple-pressure tap Hassler Style Core holder, that facilitates pressure measurement perpendicular to a fracture. Through the measurement of permeability changes at multiple distances from the fracture, this system enables an understanding of how end effects and localized ‘skin effects’ can impact the ability of fluids to move to and from the bulk matrix. Measurements of this type may lead to improved input values for reservoir simulations involving discrete fractures and/or dual-permeability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Controlling Sustainability of Hydraulic Fracture Permeability in Ductile Shales

Hydraulic fracturing technology, along with horizontal drilling and associated completion technologies, dramatically increased US oil and gas production, by increasing the permeability of tight shales and allowing for cost-effective extraction of trapped hydrocarbons. For efficient and economical production, the targeted shale has to be fractured easily (i.e., good ‘frackability’), but also the permeability of induced fractures have to be sustained during production (good ‘sustainability’). For these reasons, currently, ductile shale with high clay content (>~40%) is difficult to exploit as a hydrocarbon resource, although hydrocarbons can still be found in it. Good frackability, high-TOC, low-clay-content resource shales—the ‘low-hanging fruit’—will be depleted, and we need to develop tools that allow tapping into currently underutilized, clay-rich ductile shales. This research project aims (1) to understand the behavior of fractures in clay-rich, ductile (and sometimes swelling) shales and (2) to begin to develop technologies for efficient and economical production from such shales. With these objectives, we examine time-dependent, coupled mechanical-hydrological behavior of open and proppant-filled fractures within different types of shales. In the preceding project, the focus of the research was to understand the behavior of the fractures and to predict their permeability changes due to fracture closure from shale matrix deformation and proppant embedment. In the current project, we investigate the possibility of chemically manipulating the sustainability of hydraulic fractures in ductile shales—specifically by altering the proppant-embedding behavior—via chemical means, at different stages of oil and gas production.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Power Router for Distributing Solar in Communities (Solar Prize): Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-20-16809 (Final Report)

The American Made Solar Prize is a prize competition from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) that is designed to revitalize U.S. solar manufacturing. The competition aims to support the growth of U.S. solar manufacturing and reenergize American energy innovation by tapping into American's competitive spirit and the nation's unparalleled innovation ecosystem leveraging national labs, incubators, facilities and more.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗