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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape

Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.

Robbins, Zachary J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phosphorus budgets of intensively managed row crops at a long–term agroecosystem research site in the upper US Midwest

Phosphorus (P) budgets for cropping systems provide insights for keeping soil P at optimal levels for crops while avoiding excess inputs. We quantified 12 years of P inputs (fertilizer and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) for replicated maize (Zea mays L.)—soybean (Glycine max L.)—wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop rotations under conventional, no-till, reduced input, and biologically based (organic without compost or manure) management systems at the Kellogg Biological Station LTAR site in southwest Michigan. Conventional, no-till, and reduced input systems were fertilized between 13 and 50 kg P ha –1 depending on year. Soil test phosphorus (STP) was measured at 0- to 25-cm depth every autumn. Leached P was measured as dissolved P in the soil solution sampled beneath the rooting depth and combined with modeled percolation. Fertilization and harvest were the predominant P fluxes in the fertilized systems, whereas only harvest dominated P flux in the unfertilized organic system. Leaching losses were minor terms in the budgets, but leachate concentrations were nevertheless close to the range of concern for downstream eutrophication. Over the 12-year study period, the organic system exhibited a negative P balance (–82.0 kg P ha –1 ), coinciding with suboptimal STP levels, suggesting a need for P supplementation. In contrast, the fertilized systems showed positive P balances (mean: 70.1 kg P ha –1 ) with STP levels well above agronomic optima. Results underscore the importance of tailored P management strategies to sustain crop productivity while mitigating environmental impacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficacy of a Short-Term Captive Broodstock Program Compared with Hatchery-Origin Spring Chinook Salmon Derived from the Same Population

Abstract We examined the efficacy of a one-generation (five brood years: 1997–2001) captive broodstock program for spring Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha by comparing survival rates of captive broodstock progeny (CBP; F2) with that of hatchery-origin fish (HOR) from a conservation hatchery supplementation program in which both groups were derived from the Tucannon River (Washington State) population for the 2000–2006 brood years. Survival rates compared were egg to fry, fry to smolt, egg to smolt, total (ages 3–5) and adult (ages 4+) smolt-to-adult-return (SAR) survival, and total (ages 3–5) and adult (ages 4+) progeny-to-parent (P:P) ratio. Total escapement and adult P:P ratios were also examined to determine if observed demographic benefits to the population continued after the captive broodstock program ended. The CBP group had lower within-hatchery survival than the HOR group, with significant differences in survival at the egg-to-fry and egg-to-smolt stages due to poor egg viability. Mean untransformed total and adult SARs for the CBP were half those of the HOR group; however, SARs did not differ significantly. The CBP also had significantly lower total and adult P:P ratios than the HOR group and were below replacement for six of the seven brood years. While the captive broodstock provided additional fish for release that would not have been available otherwise, overall the CBP performed poorly and below expectations compared with the HOR group, both within the hatchery and after release. The captive broodstock program provided a short-term demographic boost, most notable in the 2008–2010 return years, but the benefit did not carry over after the program ended.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Oxygen‐Scavenger Sulfide Coating Enabling Long‐Term Stable Nickel‐Rich Cathodes

Oxygen release is a major issue associated with layer-structured metal oxide cathodes in lithium batteries, which can further cause a series of problems, such as irreversible phase transition, microcracking, and electrolyte decomposition. Eventually, these issues jointly result in cell performance degradation and safety hazards. Thus, it is very significant to tackle oxygen release for achieving long-term stable cyclability, but very challenging. Although intensive efforts have been invested to date, there still lacks a feasible solution. In this study, nanoscale ZrS 2 coatings are applied on prefabricated LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) cathodes directly via atomic layer deposition (ALD). Very encouragingly, we reveal that this ALD-deposited conformal ZrS 2 nanocoating can serve as an exceptional oxygen scavenger and then convert into a stable sulfate (Zr(SO 4 ) 2 ) coating. Such an in situ conversion is very beneficial and effective for protecting the electrolyte from decomposition. In addition, the resultant Zr(SO 4 ) 2 coating further inhibits undesirable reactions, stabilizes the interface between NMC811 and the electrolyte, suppresses microcracking, mitigates transition metal dissolution, and maintains the structural stability of the NMC811 cathode. Consequently, the ZrS 2 -coated NMC811 cathode has demonstrated extraordinary performance. Thus, this study advances the understanding of interface engineering while paving a new technical pathway for commercializing NMC811 cathodes.

Nickel-rich cathodes↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Abstract Evaluation of long-term temporal and spatial climatic change in mountainous regions is a critical challenge because of the interactive effects of multiple land and climatic factors and processes. Here we present the application of the statistical framework to the assessment of changes of climatic conditions, using data from 17 meteorological stations across the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA, and spanning the period from 1966 to 2021. The framework is developed based on (1) a time-series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) evaluation and time series analysis of potential evapotranspiration (ET o ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), aridity index (AI), standard precipitation index (SPI) and standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and (3) a temporal-spatial climatic zonation of the studied area based on the hierarchical clustering and PCA analysis of the SPEI, because the SPEI can be considered an integrative characteristic of the changes of climatic conditions. The Budyko model, with the application of the Penman–Monteith equation for the estimation of ET o , was used to determine the ET. The time series analysis of the AI is used to identify the periods with energy limited and water limited conditions. Hierarchical clustering of site locations for the three temporal segments of the SPEI showed a significant temporal-spatial shifts, indicating that dynamic climatic processes drive zonation patterns. Therefore, the watershed climatic zonation requires periodic re-evaluation based on the structural time series analysis of meteorological and water balance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term missing value imputation for time series data using deep neural networks

We present an approach that uses a deep learning model, in particular, a MultiLayer Perceptron, for estimating the missing values of a variable in multivariate time series data. We focus on filling a long continuous gap (e.g., multiple months of missing daily observations) rather than on individual randomly missing observations. Our proposed gap filling algorithm uses an automated method for determining the optimal MLP model architecture, thus allowing for optimal prediction performance for the given time series. We tested our approach by filling gaps of various lengths (three months to three years) in three environmental datasets with different time series characteristics, namely daily groundwater levels, daily soil moisture, and hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange. We compared the accuracy of the gap-filled values obtained with our approach to the widely used R-based time series gap filling methods ImputeTS and mtsdi. The results indicate that using an MLP for filling a large gap leads to better results, especially when the data behave nonlinearly. Thus, our approach enables the use of datasets that have a large gap in one variable, which is common in many long-term environmental monitoring observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding long-term groundwater flow at Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nevada National Security Site, USA, from naturally occurring geochemical and isotopic tracers

Abstract Recently collected naturally occurring geochemical and isotopic groundwater tracers were combined with historic data from the Pahute Mesa area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), Nevada, USA, to provide insights into long-term regional groundwater flow patterns, mixing and recharge. Pahute Mesa was the site of 85 nuclear detonations between 1965 and 1992, many of them deeply buried devices that introduced radionuclides directly into groundwater. The dataset examined included major ions and field measurements, stable isotopes of hydrogen (δ 2 H), oxygen (δ 18 O), carbon (δ 13 C) and sulfur (δ 34 S), and radioisotopes of carbon ( 14 C) and chloride ( 36 Cl). Analysis of the patterns of groundwater 14 C data and the δ 2 H and δ 18 O signatures indicates that groundwater recharge is predominantly of Pleistocene age, except for a few localized areas near major ephemeral drainages. Steep gradients in sulfate (SO 4 ) and chloride (Cl) define a region near the western edge of the NNSS where high-concentration groundwater flowing south from north of the NNSS merges with dilute groundwater flowing west from eastern Pahute Mesa in a mixing zone that coincides with a groundwater trough associated with major faults. The 36 Cl/Cl and δ 34 S data suggest that the source of the high Cl and SO 4 in the groundwater was a now-dry, pluvial-age playa lake north of the NNSS. Patterns of groundwater flow indicated by the combined data sets show that groundwater is flowing around the northwest margin of the now extinct Timber Mountain Caldera Complex toward regional discharge areas in Oasis Valley.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Invited Review Paper in Commemoration of Over 50 Years of Oxidation of Metals: Addressing the Role of Water Vapor on Long-Term Stainless Steel Oxidation Behavior

In the past 20 years, it has become clear that the long-term exposure of chromia-forming austenitic stainless steels to air containing ~ 10 vol% water vapor at 650–800 °C significantly increases the Cr consumption rate compared to laboratory air. However, a similar acceleration does not occur in 100% steam because O 2 is not available to form volatile CrO 2 (OH) 2 . As the research has shown, this accelerated Cr loss is particularly important for thin-walled components like gas turbine recuperators. Typically, conventional austenitic stainless steels exhibit accelerated attack (i.e., rapid formation of Fe-rich oxide nodules), while higher alloyed steels resist this type of degradation until the alloy surface becomes Cr depleted. The development of strategies and solutions for this issue are reviewed. Model Fe–Cr–Ni alloys have been used to study composition effects on this behavior. For example, increasing the Mn content up to ~ 4 wt% was not beneficial, but increasing the Ni content improved oxidation resistance in this environment. However, at 650–700 °C even highly alloyed steels showed surface Cr depletion at alloy grain boundaries resulting in Fe-rich oxide nodule formation. The path forward for this issue will require more refined mechanistic understanding and increased used of modeling to develop better application-specific lifetime models to identify the most cost-effective alloy solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxidation Lifetime Modeling of 625 and 120 Foils After Long-term Exposure in Flowing Air + 10% ${\hbox {H}_2\hbox {O}}$ at 700 and 800 $^\circ$C

A model describing oxidation kinetics considering simultaneous oxidation and volatilization of external oxide scales was integrated with a CALPHAD-based coupled thermodynamic and kinetic approach to predict the oxidation-induced lifetime of foils of alloys 625 and 120. Long-term exposures in flowing air +10% H 2 O at 700 and 800 °C under two flow velocities were used to validate the modeling results. The time to a critical Cr concentration of 10 wt% at the oxide/alloy interface, t 10 , was shown to correlate with the breakdown of the Cr 2 O 3 scale for the studied experimental conditions. Finally, the modeling approach was extended to consider time-dependent oxidation and volatilization rate constants to develop a more appropriate lifetime criterion for microturbine recuperator foils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural Coarsening Kinetics and Mechanical Property Changes in Long-Term Aged Sn–Pb–Sb Solder Joints

Tin-lead-antimony (50Sn–47Pb–3Sb wt.%) soldered assemblies were mechanically tested approximately 30 years after initial production and found to have solder joints of reduced strength. The microstructure of this solder alloy exhibits a ternary eutectic structure with Sn-rich, Pb-rich, and SnSb phases. Accelerated aging was performed to evaluate solder microstructural coarsening and associated strength of laboratory solder joints to correlate these properties to the “naturally aged” solder joints. Isothermal aging was conducted at room temperature, 55, 70, 100, and 135 °C and aging times that ranged from 0.1 to 365 days. The coarsening kinetics of the Pb-rich phase were determined through optical microscopy and image analysis methods established in previous studies on binary Sn–Pb solder. A kinetic equation was developed with time exponent n of 0.43 and activation energy of 24000 J/mol, suggesting grain boundary diffusion or other fast diffusion pathways controlling the microstructural evolution. Compression testing and Vickers microhardness showed significant strength loss within the first 20–30 days after soldering; then, the microstructure and mechanical properties changed more slowly over long periods of time. Further, by combining accelerated aging data and the microstructure-based kinetics, strength predictions were made that match well with the properties of the actual soldered assemblies naturally aged for 30 years. However, aging at the highest temperature of 135 °C produced anomalous behavior suggesting that extraneous aging mechanisms are active. Therefore, data obtained at this temperature or higher should not be used. Overall, the combined microstructural and mechanical property methods used in this study confirmed that the observed reduction in strength of ~ 30-year-old solder joints can be accounted for by the microstructural coarsening that takes place during long-term solid-state aging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A long-term pilot-scale algal cultivation on power plant flue gas – Cultivation stability and biomass accumulation

A long-term culture of a selected freshwater microalgal assemblage on power plant flue gas was realized using a pilot-scale photobioreactor. Different culture conditions of light cycle, harvesting amount, pH stabilization, and sulfur addition were tested during a 12-month continuous operation at a natural gas fired power plant. The results concluded that the daily harvesting amount of 60% with no light-cycle and NH 4 NO 3 as the nitrogen source and pH stabilization agent, resulted in optimal cultivation performance. Biomass concentration and biomass productivity reached 1.07 ± 0.23 g L -1 and 0.43 ± 0.14 g L -1 d -1 , respectively. During the year-long cultivation period, the algal assemblage was relatively stable with average abundances of 88 ± 4% and 12 ± 4% for algae and bacteria, respectively, and no significant differences between individual case scenarios. The stable culture fostered a stable biomass composition. Protein, carbohydrate, and lipid contents of the algal biomass were 58.60 ± 2.41%, 19.5 ± 2.44%, and 9.70 ± 1.68%, respectively.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous monitoring of algal biomass: Success stories and lessons learned from long-term field deployment

Autonomous, high-frequency monitoring of outdoor algal ponds is needed to quantify biomass productivity and detect culture decline in environments prone to contamination, grazers, and variable operating conditions. We report successes and lessons learned in translating a laboratory spectroradiometric monitoring approach to a multi-year autonomous field deployment at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI). The system measures spectrally resolved pond reflectance by ratioing upwelling radiance from each raceway to simultaneous downwelling sky irradiance using fiber-coupled spectrometers. A physics-based reflectance model (ASHARP) is fit to each spectrum pair to estimate optical parameters, including a biomass-proxy coefficient (C a ) which enables near-real-time tracking of biomass accumulation and culture state at 2–5 min intervals. From May 2022 through September 2025 the platform operated continuously while scaling from two to six raceway ponds. Several strains of algae were monitored successfully, including the high productivity Tetraselmis striata and Picochlorum celeri. Transitioning data acquisition from a Windows laptop to a Raspberry Pi improved uptime from 57% (2022) to ~89% (2024–2025) and enabled routine real-time analysis. Further, we converted relative biomass estimates to absolute ash-free dry weight (AFDW) using experimentally-derived calibrations, providing field-relevant biomass predictions with conservative confidence bounds. These results demonstrate the feasibility of long-term, autonomous optical monitoring for well-mixed open-raceway algal cultivation and provide practical guidance for reliable field operation and scaling.

Katinas, Christopher Michael [Sandia National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗