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DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Next-Generation Cobalt-Free Cathodes – A Prospective Solution to the Battery Industry's Cobalt Problem

Lithium-ion batteries are overreliant on cobalt containing cathodes. Current projections estimate that hundreds of millions of electric vehicles (EVs) will be on the road by 2050, and this ever-growing demand threatens to deplete global cobalt reserves at an alarming rate. Moreover, cobalt supply chain issues have significantly increased cobalt prices throughout the last decade. As such, energy storage research and development need to reduce the reliance on cobalt to meet ever-growing demand for lithium-ion batteries. The present review summarizes the science and technology gaps and potential of numerous cobalt-free Li-ion cathodes including layered, spinel, olivine, and disordered rock-salt systems. Despite the promising performance of these Co-free cathodes, scale-up and manufacturing bottlenecks associated with these materials must also be addressed to enable widespread adoption in commercial batteries. Overall, this review broadly highlights the enormous promise of “zero-cobalt” Li-ion batteries to enable sustainable production of EVs in the coming decades.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Battery Energy Storage Scenario Analyses Using the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Assessment (LIBRA) Model

Meeting aggressive carbon emission goals will entail widespread deployment of renewable sources of electricity. Because these sources are variable, there is a need to develop scalable energy storage technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is supporting efforts to increase U.S. manufacturing and recycling capabilities for LIBs and to decrease costs of stationary storage batteries. Many factors influence the domestic manufacturing and cost of stationary storage batteries, including availability of critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, and nickel), competition from various demand sectors (consumer electronics, vehicles, and battery energy storage), resource recovery (recycling), government policies, and learning in the industry, among other factors. Understanding how these factors interact and identifying synergies and bottlenecks is important for developing effective strategies for the LIB stationary energy storage system. We developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resource Analysis (LIBRA) model as a tool to help stakeholders better understand the following types of questions: What are the roles of R&D, industrial learning, and scaling of demand in lowering the cost of battery energy storage system production? How do the intersections between the EV and stationary storage sectors affect the battery supply chain? For various stationary storage and EV penetration scenarios, what volumes of critical materials might be required and what role can resource recovery play? What does expected demand for both EVs and stationary storage portend for mineral resources and overall mineral scarcity? The LIBRA model is developed using a System dynamics (SD) modeling approach to represent interactions across the segments of the battery materials supply chain. System dynamics models can capture the complex interactions and feedback between the various system components that influence supply and demand. The LIBRA model is comprised of several interacting modules that represent specific portions of the LIB supply chain. The model tracks the buildout of the domestic LIB industry over time (2020 - 2050) and in the context of competing demands for raw materials, recycling, and markets for LIBs. The LIBRA model represents major systemic feedback loops and delays across the supply chain. This report provides a complete documentation for the LIBRA model, including model assumptions, data, scenario analysis results, and sensitivity analysis of the model's input space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interplay between electron localization, magnetic order, and Jahn-Teller distortion dictates LiMnO2 phase stability

The development of manganese (Mn)-rich cathodes for Li-ion batteries promises to alleviate potential supply chain bottlenecks in battery manufacturing. Fundamental challenges in Mn-rich cathodes arise from phenomena such as structural changes due to cooperative Jahn-Teller (JT) distortions of in octahedral environments, Mn migration, and phase transformations to spinel-like order, all of which affect the electrochemical performance. These physically complex phenomena motivate an re-examination of the Li-Mn-O rock-salt space, with a focus on the thermodynamics of the prototypical, polymorphs. It is found that the generalized gradient approximation (GGA-PBEsol) and meta-GGA ( ) density functionals with empirically fitted on-site Hubbard corrections yield spurious stable phases for , such as predicting a phase with -like order ( ) to be the ground state instead of the orthorhombic (Pmmn) phase, which is the experimentally known ground state. Accounting for antiferromagnetic order in each structure is shown to have a substantial effect on the total energies and resulting phase stability. By using hybrid-GGA (HSE06) and GGA with self-consistent Hubbard parameters (on-site and inter-site ) calculated from linear response theory, the experimentally observed phase stability trends are recovered. The calculated on-site between Mn- states in the experimentally observed orthorhombic, layered, and spinel phases are significantly smaller than in and disordered layered structures, by within GGA. The smaller values of are shown to be correlated with a collinear ordering of JT distortions, in which all orbitals are oriented in the same direction. This cooperative JT effect can lead to greater electron delocalization from Mn along the states due to increased Mn-O covalency, which contributes to the greater electronic stability compared to the phases with noncollinear JT arrangements. The structures with collinear ordering of JT distortions also generate greater vibrational entropy, which helps stabilize these phases at high temperature. These phases are shown to be strongly insulating with large calculated band gaps , which are computed using HSE06 and .

Kam, Ronald L↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generative Design for Resilience of Interdependent Network Systems

Abstract Interconnected complex systems usually undergo disruptions due to internal uncertainties and external negative impacts such as those caused by harsh operating environments or regional natural disaster events. To maintain the operation of interconnected network systems under both internal and external challenges, design for resilience research has been conducted from both enhancing the reliability of the system through better designs and improving the failure recovery capabilities. As for enhancing the designs, challenges have arisen for designing a robust system due to the increasing scale of modern systems and the complicated underlying physical constraints. To tackle these challenges and design a resilient system efficiently, this study presents a generative design method that utilizes graph learning algorithms. The generative design framework contains a performance estimator and a candidate design generator. The generator can intelligently mine good properties from existing systems and output new designs that meet predefined performance criteria while the estimator can efficiently predict the performance of the generated design for a fast iterative learning process. Case studies results based on synthetic supply chain networks and power systems from the IEEE dataset have illustrated the applicability of the developed method for designing resilient interdependent network systems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2011

Highly Integrated Quality Assurance – An Empirical Case

Highly Integrated Quality Assurance – An Empirical Case Drake Kirkham1, Amy Powell2, Lucas Rich3 1Quality Manager, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625 M/S 6122, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-6122 2Quality Engineer, RPS Program, Idaho National Laboratory 3Quality Engineer, RPS Program, Idaho National Laboratory Contact: Voice: (208) 533-7550 Email: Drake.Kirkham@inl.gov Abstract. The Radioisotope Power Systems Program of the Idaho National Laboratory makes an empirical case for a highly integrated Quality Assurance function pertaining to the preparation, assembly, testing, storage and transportation of 238Pu fueled radioisotope thermoelectric generators. Case data represents multiple campaigns including the Pluto/New Horizons mission, the Mars Science Laboratory mission in progress, and other related projects. Traditional Quality Assurance models would attempt to reduce cost by minimizing the role of dedicated Quality Assurance personnel in favor of either functional tasking or peer-based implementations. Highly integrated Quality Assurance adds value by placing trained quality inspectors on the production floor side-by-side with nuclear facility operators to enhance team dynamics, reduce inspection wait time, and provide for immediate, independent feedback. Value is also added by maintaining dedicated Quality Engineers to provide for rapid identification and resolution of corrective action, enhanced and expedited supply chain interfaces, improved bonded storage capabilities, and technical resources for requirements management including data package development and Certificates of Inspection. A broad examination of cost-benefit indicates highly integrated Quality Assurance can reduce cost through the mitigation of risk and reducing administrative burden thereby allowing engineers to be engineers, nuclear operators to be nuclear operators, and the cross-functional team to operate more efficiently. Applicability of this case extends to any high-value, long-term project where traceability and accountability are determining factors.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenarios of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A↗

DOE OSTI2020

LWRS 2019 Accomplishments Report

Nuclear energy is an important part of supplying our nation’s energy—safely, dependably, and economically—with reduced carbon dioxide emissions. The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy-Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) supports a strong and viable domestic nuclear industry. In collaboration with industry programs, the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program supports the continued operation of the commercial fleet of nuclear power plants. DOE’s role in this program focuses on enhancing the safe, efficient, and economical performance of the nation’s nuclear fleet. This report describes the accomplishments of the LWRS Program during Fiscal Year 2019. DOE-NE’s0F primary mission is to advance nuclear power as a resource capable of making major contributions in meeting the nation’s energy supply, environmental, and energy security needs. Under the guidance of three research objectives, NE resolves barriers to technical, cost, safety, security, and proliferation resistance through early stage research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) to: • Enhance the long-term viability and competitiveness of the existing U.S. reactor fleet • Develop an advanced reactor pipeline • Implement and maintain national strategic fuel-cycle and supply-chain infrastructures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A plan to revitalize the domestic superconducting radio-frequency industry

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are essential building blocks of modern particle accelerators for scientific research, and they offer unique capabilities that could be transformative for commercial applications. Growth of the domestic SRF industry in North America has faced several challenges over the past decades, as most of the international demand for cavities was supplied by European vendors. This contribution provides a brief review of the domestic industrial vendor space, an outlook of the global demand for SRF cavities and an outline of the challenges leading to this supply chain deficiency. One of the main challenges towards establishing a robust domestic SRF industry has been the large uncertainty in the demand. Meanwhile, research and development activities to raise technical readiness of SRF accelerators for industrial use have continued and several potential markets are emerging that may offer a consistent and growing demand for SRF cavities. Finally, reasons and means of establishing and sustaining competitive domestic suppliers are described.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Management for a Novel Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Interior Permanent Magnet Machine

The work presents a thermal management solution for a novel non-heavy rare-earth permanent magnet machine being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The motor has been designed to minimize losses while maximizing performance for a range of speeds and power ratings. The novel motor design reduces rare-earth magnet usage, thereby avoiding supply chain issues. The motor component heat losses are established for operating windows and desired performance. These heat losses, along with windage losses, are being used to develop cooling solutions for different components of this machine. A novel thermal management solution for stators and rotors has been developed, and progress is presented in this paper. The stator cooling is achieved with the help of water-ethylene glycol flowing over the finned aluminum stator jacket, and rotor cooling with automatic transmission fluid passing through novel channels designed in the rotor laminations. The attempt is to establish effective cooling of the stator winding, laminations, and rotor magnets. A 3D conjugate heat transfer model has been developed for overall thermal analysis to establish a down- selected thermal management solution for the machine. The model, in addition to estimated component heat losses, includes windage losses and its impact on rotor and stator cooling. Overall, the work presents a workable thermal solution for the interior permanent magnet machine with potential for further improvements. Future work will involve establishing end winding and refinement of other end parts of the machine with the aim of establishing a robust thermal management solution. The work will also focus on different shapes (e.g., round, non-round, presence of wedges) of rotor-stator gaps and investigate windage losses and their impact on thermal management for higher rotational speeds for the machine.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for the Global Commercialization of Floating Offshore Wind Energy

Floating offshore wind (FOW) has the potential to unlock access to wind resources in deep water where fixed-bottom turbines are not feasible, enabling coastal regions around the world to meet growing energy demands. Although fixed-bottom offshore wind is commercially mature, FOW, which may be needed for water deeper than 60 m, must progress in multiple ways to reach full commercial viability. In this Perspective, we examine the status of the global FOW industry's commercial development across three key areas - technical innovation, industrialization and cross-cutting value. Technical innovation has enabled FOW turbines to perform as well as fixed-bottom turbines, with the promise of future cost reductions. However, the complex architecture of FOW turbines, combining floating structures with more than 8,000 electrical and mechanical parts in wind turbines, requires industrialization efforts such as standardization and supply-chain integration to enable commercial project deployment. FOW can potentially offer unique benefits, including reduced environmental impacts and strengthened economic development in coastal regions, through substantial regional economic activity. Successful coordination across these three areas could help to position FOW as a major contributor to a competitive, reliable and resilient global energy system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A High-Voltage High-Current Benchtop Test Stand for Solid-State Switch Testing at the SNS

Solid-state switches already replaced thyratrons in the SNS extraction kicker power supplies, offering improved efficiency and reliability. However, recent supply chain disruptions, combined with a self-firing issue, led us to explore alternative solutions. A vendor-developed MOS-Gated Thyristor switch was introduced but ultimately failed during testing. To investigate the failure and assess possible improvements, a benchtop test stand was constructed to evaluate the performance of a single stage board. This test stand features a Pulse Forming Network (PFN) that operates at 6 kV and 6 kA, with a repetition rate exceeding 60 Hz, simulating real operational conditions. By utilizing this setup, we seek to gain a better understanding of the failure mechanisms, refine the switch designs, and ultimately develop a more reliable alternative for the extraction kicker power supplies.

Bullman, Austin [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal electricity market has significantly grown over the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 GWe in 2021 (GEA, 2016). Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. In particular, the turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. This study focuses on analysis of the global supply chain and manufacturing costs for Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turboexpanders and steam turbines used in geothermal power plants. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). MSP is the minimum price that a company must sell its product for in order to pay back the capital and operating expenses during the plant lifetime (CEMAC, 2017). The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 dollar/kW and 30 dollar/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. Sensitivity analysis indicated these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty of Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Making for Operations and Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant

This paper summarizes research that integrates condition monitoring and prognostics with decision making for nuclear power plant operations and maintenance. As part of this research, we have developed an online asset management tool to help reduce life-cycle maintenance and repair costs. Using the latest advancements in condition monitoring, supply chain analytics, and deep reinforcement learning, we have created a predictive maintenance tool that can optimize the maintenance and spare-part management of a repairable nuclear system. To demonstrate these methods, preliminary studies were conducted on a simple, representative maintenance system undergoing a stochastic degradation process that requires repairs or replacement to continue operation. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we were able to reduce maintenance spending by approximately 50% compared to optimized, time-based maintenance strategies. Not only does the decision maker reduce the average life-cycle costs, it also minimizes the chance of high cost scenarios, lowering the variance of the expected cost distributions, and reducing overall financial risk. Furthermore, this work also studies the ability of the decision maker to handle various levels of noise from observation uncertainty. By introducing uncertainty into the decision-making process, we have quantified the robustness and resiliency of the decision maker, as well as identified necessary levels of observability to demonstrate cost effectiveness.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cybersecurity and Digital Components: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. As the energy sector has become more globalized and increasingly complex, digitized, and even virtualized, its supply chain risk for digital components – the software, virtual platforms and services, and data – in energy systems has evolved and expanded. All digital components in U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable and may be subject to cyber supply cha in risks stemming from a variety of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This includes digital components in all systems within the ESIB, namely those systems operated by asset owners across different energy subsectors (e.g., electricity, oil and natural gas, and renewables) and the systems operated by a worldwide industrial complex with capabilities to perform research and development and design, produce, operate, and maintain energy sector systems, subsystems, components, or parts to meet U.S. energy requirements. Supply chain risks for digital components including software, virtual platforms and services, and data have grown in recent years as increasingly sophisticated cyber adversaries have targeted exploiting vulnerabilities in these digital assets. Supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wind Turbine Drivetrain Reliability and Wind Plant Operations and Maintenance Research and Development Opportunities

The Drivetrain Reliability Collaborative holds annual meetings convened by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the U.S. Department of Energy to bring researchers and stakeholders throughout the wind turbine drivetrain supply, operations, and sustainment chain together to explore the state of the art in mechanical system reliability and operations and maintenance challenges that if solved could have significant benefits. Identification of these research and development opportunities are a prime focus of the meetings and are summarized in this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗