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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the penetration of the 660 km phase change by mantle downflows

We present a simple analytic model of the interaction of cold convective downwelling currents with an endothermic phase change. The model describes the ponding and lateral spreading of downflows along the phase transition interface. A simple comparison of the vertical forces on the ponding material provides a necessary condition for a downflow to penetrate the phase boundary. This condition is fundamentally dependent on the geometry of the downflow. For planar downwellings, the model predicts a minimum ponding time before the structure can penetrate the phase boundary. For columnar (axisymmetric) downflows, there is no minimum time of spreading required before penetration can proceed. The model thus provides an explanation for the observation that in numerical models of three-dimensional convection with an endothermic phase change, cylindrical downflows penetrate the phase interface while planar ones do not. Since descending slabs in the Earth's mantle display a wide spectrum of geometries between planar and cylindrical (given various trench curvatures, as well as intersections of two or more subduction zones), this phenomenon may explain, in part, why some slabs appear to extend into the lower mantle while others are deflected at the 660 km discontinuity.

Bercovici, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Particle Spreading Dynamics on Powder Bed Quality in Metal Additive Manufacturing

Powder spreading precedes creation of every new layer in powder bed additive manufacturing (AM). The powder spreading process can lead to powder layer defects such as porosity, poor surface roughness and particle segregation. Therefore, the creation of homogeneous layers is the first task for optimal part printing. Discrete element methods (DEM) powder spreading simulations are typically limited to a single layer and/or small number of particles. Therefore, results from such model configurations may not be generalized to multiple layer processes. In this study, a computationally efficient multi-layer powder spreading DEM simulation model is proposed. The model is calibrated experimentally using static Angle of Repose measurements. The adhesion model parameter, cohesive energy density is related to adhesive surface energy and strain energy release rate parameters. The model results show that interaction between particle and the powder spreading rake leads to noticeable variation in packing density, surface roughness, dynamic angle of repose (AOR), particle size distribution, and particle segregation. Finally, the powder model is experimentally validated using a recoater spreading rig to measure the dynamic AOR at spreading speeds consistent with recoating speeds and layer heights used in AM processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation and Applications of Cloud Climatologies from CALIOP

Clouds have a major impact on the Earth radiation budget and differences in the representation of clouds in global climate models are responsible for much of the spread in predicted climate sensitivity. Existing cloud climatologies, against which these models can be tested, have many limitations. The CALIOP lidar, carried on the CALIPSO satellite, has now acquired over two years of nearly continuous cloud and aerosol observations. This dataset provides an improved basis for the characterization of 3-D global cloudiness. Global average cloud cover measured by CALIOP is about 75%, significantly higher than for existing cloud climatologies due to the sensitivity of CALIOP to optically thin cloud. Day/night biases in cloud detection appear to be small. This presentation will discuss detection sensitivity and other issues associated with producing a cloud climatology, characteristics of cloud cover statistics derived from CALIOP data, and applications of those statistics.

Winker, David↗
NASA NTRS1984

Structure of nonevaporating sprays - Measurements and predictions

Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays (SMD of 30 and 87 microns) injected into a still air environment, including: mean and fluctuating gas velocities and Reynolds stress using laser-Doppler anemometry; mean liquid fluxes using isokinetic sampling; drop sizes using slide impaction; and drop sizes and velocities using multiflash photography. The new measurements were used to evaluate three representative models of sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop interaction with turbulent fluctuations were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of both interphase slip and turbulent fluctuations were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models were unsatisfactory for present test conditions-both underestimating flow widths and the rate of spread of drops. In contrast, the SSF model provided reasonably accurate predictions, including effects of enhanced spreading rates of sprays due to drop dispersion by turbulence, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Symposium (International) on Combustion, 19th, Technion Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel, August 8-13, 1982, Proceedings

Topics discussed are related to elementary reactions, reaction mechanisms and modeling, laminar flames, flame chemistry, turbulent reacting shear flows, turbulent premixed flames, turbulent combustion measurements, continuous combustors, detonation, detonation and explosion, heterogeneous detonation, propellant combustion, fire-ignition and thermal degradation, fire-flame spread and burning, fire-modeling, spray combustion, and droplet combustion. Coal combustion kinetics and mechanisms are considered along with coal combustion mechanisms and pyrolysis, coal combustion techniques, NOx in coal combustion, gaseous pollutants, soot and PAH, soot and inorganic pollutants, I.C. engine combustion, and ignition and extinction. Attention is given to intricate paths and simple steps in chemical kinetics and combustion, the formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by combustion, turbulent flame structure and speed in spark ignition engines, and unresolved problems in SOx, NOx, and soot control in combustion.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mid-latitude clouds contribute to Arctic amplification via interactions with other climate feedbacks

Abstract Traditional feedback analyses, which assume that individual climate feedback mechanisms act independently and add linearly, suggest that clouds do not contribute to Arctic amplification. However, feedback locking experiments, in which the cloud feedback is disabled, suggest that clouds, particularly outside of the Arctic, do contribute to Arctic amplification. Here, we reconcile these two perspectives by introducing a framework that quantifies the interactions between radiative feedbacks, radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, and atmospheric heat transport. We show that including the cloud feedback in a comprehensive climate model can result in Arctic amplification because of interactions with other radiative feedbacks. The surface temperature change associated with including the cloud feedback is amplified in the Arctic by the surface-albedo, Planck, and lapse-rate feedbacks. A moist energy balance model with a locked cloud feedback exhibits similar behavior as the comprehensive climate model with a disabled cloud feedback and further indicates that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes to Arctic amplification via feedback interactions. Feedback locking in the moist energy balance model also suggests that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification across comprehensive climate models. These results imply that constraining the mid-latitude cloud feedback will greatly reduce the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. Furthermore, these results highlight a previously unrecognized non-local pathway for Arctic amplification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effect of surface radiation on flame spread in a quiescent, microgravity environment

In most theories of laminar flame spread over solid combustibles, radiation is neglected. However, when gas motion is completely absent, which may occur in the quiescent, microgravity environment of a spacecraft, the importance of radiation compared to convection is enhanced. Here, a theoretical model is developed of flame spread over a thin solid fuel into an opposing flow of oxidizer, the opposing flow being present in the quiescent environment in flame-fixed coordinates, including the effects of radiative heat transfer from the fuel surface. Numerical solutions to the conservation equations in the gas and the solid phase that describe the spreading flame are presented for a variety of ambient conditions and surface emittances. When surface radiation is significant, the solid surface acts as a heat sink, causing the flame to cool, shrink in size, and spread more slowly. Better agreement with experiment for net heat transfer to the surface is obtained when surface radiation is included. For low ambient oxygen levels, radiative effects lead to flame extinction. A radiation/conduction parameter is identified that adequately describes the importance of surface radiation.

Bhattacharjee, S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Influence of Aqueous Dispersivity on Transport of Radiological Material at LANL MDA G - 20450

Aqueous dispersivity is a phenomenon by which a solute moving in groundwater mixes with water that does not contain the solute and becomes diluted. Solutes take paths of varying lengths through pore networks or experience slower velocities due to interactions with pore walls. Aqueous dispersivity leads to breakthrough curves with earlier arrival than expected in purely advective systems and persistent 'tails,' or late-arriving, dilute concentrations of the solute. Dispersivity can be longitudinal (in the direction of flow) or transverse (orthogonal to flow). LANL has disposed of radioactive material at Material Disposal Area (MDA) G since the late 1950's. Most of the disposed materials at MDA G are low-level waste (LLW), but other types of radioactive wastes are disposed or stored at the site. For example, there is a collection of remote-handled transuranic waste (RH-TRU) waste in 33 shafts, which were intended to be stored retrievably. Aqueous-phase radionuclides included in models of contaminant transport at MDA G are subject to dispersive processes in porous media of the vadose zone and saturated zone. To model dispersivity at MDA G probabilistically, we created site-specific distributions of aqueous dispersivity. First, we performed a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed publications, reports from other performance assessments of MDA G, and documentation from sites that were considered similar based on expert opinion, such as Yucca Mountain. Data were included from a wide range of sources, so that distributions developed based on the data reflect the current state of knowledge in properties of the subsurface environment. Data were grouped based on value type (e.g., determined via experiment or used in a different model), rock type, zone type (saturated or unsaturated), and site, and were weighted in the distributions according to their relevance to the site and zone type. We combined Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping techniques to produce approximate distributions of mean aqueous dispersivity. Distributions of dispersivity for saturated and unsaturated zone transport are differentiated by data weight and the length scales over which transport occurs. We find that underestimating or disregarding transverse dispersivity may lead to overstating simulated well capture in the saturated zone at MDA G. Neglecting transverse dispersivity is a common assumption due in part to use of one-dimensional transport models that do not consider solute spreading orthogonal to flow. Also, we find that variability in longitudinal dispersivity is associated with substantial travel time alterations in the MDA G unsaturated zone and in simulated contaminant breakthrough times at a downstream observation plane in the MDA G saturated zone. Finally, at large scales (>1000 m), a linear trend between the dispersivity coefficient and length over which transport occurs may overestimate the dispersivity coefficient. Future modeling work with application to solute spreading could include interacting advective and diffusive zones in the highly fractured basalt below MDA G. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modeling of combustion processes of stick propellants via combined Eulerian-Lagrangian approach

This research is motivated by the improved ballistic performance of large-caliber guns using stick propellant charges. A comprehensive theoretical model for predicting the flame spreading, combustion, and grain deformation phenomena of long, unslotted stick propellants is presented. The formulation is based upon a combined Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to simulate special characteristics of the two phase combustion process in a cartridge loaded with a bundle of sticks. The model considers five separate regions consisting of the internal perforation, the solid phase, the external interstitial gas phase, and two lumped parameter regions at either end of the stick bundle. For the external gas phase region, a set of transient one-dimensional fluid-dynamic equations using the Eulerian approach is obtained; governing equations for the stick propellants are formulated using the Lagrangian approach. The motion of a representative stick is derived by considering the forces acting on the entire propellant stick. The instantaneous temperature and stress fields in the stick propellant are modeled by considering the transient axisymmetric heat conduction equation and dynamic structural analysis.

Kuo, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An evidential approach to model-based satellite diagnosis

The paper presents an approach to the implementation of an automated satellite diagnosis capability which emphasizes techniques offering flexibility in the application of diagnostic strategies. The system utilizes a structural and behavioral model of the satellite; it uses a form of spreading activation to perform the diagnostic procedures on the model. A Dempster-Shafer evidential framework was implemented, making it possible to integrate evidence from the multiple sources necessary for building useful systems.

Bickmore, Timothy W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of flaming combustion and flaming-to-smoldering transition in wildland fire spread at flame scale

Our objective in the present study is to provide basic insights into the coupling between external-gas and solid biomass vegetation processes that control the dynamics of flame spread in wildland fire problems. Here we focus on a modeling approach that resolves processes occurring at vegetation and flame scales, i.e., the formation of flammable vapors due to the thermal degradation of the solid biomass, the subsequent combustion in ambient air, the thermal feedback to the biomass through radiative and convective heat transfer, and the possible transition from flaming combustion (taking place outside of the solid biomass) to smoldering combustion (taking place inside the solid biomass). The capability uses a multiphase combustion framework and treats external-gas processes through a Large Eddy Simulation solver and solid biomass processes through a discrete particle model. The discrete particle model adopts a one-dimensional porous medium formulation, includes descriptions of drying, thermal pyrolysis, oxidative pyrolysis, and char oxidation, as well as a description of the external-gas-to-solid-biomass diffusion of oxygen mass; the discrete particle model thereby provides a treatment of in-depth oxidative processes and allows the simulation of smoldering combustion. The modeling capability is applied to the simulation of fire spread across a surrogate biomass vegetation bed corresponding to a discrete array of cylindrical-shaped, vertically-oriented, pine wood sticks, characterized by a monomodal size distribution, in horizontal flat terrain and under wind-aided conditions. The numerical results demonstrate that the model can simulate successful flaming-to-smoldering transition followed by complete biomass consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Laser Beam Propagation Through Inhomogeneous Media with Shock-Like Profiles: Modeling and Computing

Wave propagation in inhomogeneous media has been studied for such diverse applications as propagation of radiowaves in atmosphere, light propagation through thin films and in inhomogeneous waveguides, flow visualization, and others. In recent years an increased interest has been developed in wave propagation through shocks in supersonic flows. Results of experiments conducted in the past few years has shown such interesting phenomena as a laser beam splitting and spreading. The paper describes a model constructed to propagate a laser beam through shock-like inhomogeneous media. Numerical techniques are presented to compute the beam through such media. The results of computation are presented, discussed, and compared with experimental data.

Adamovsky, Grigory↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven multiscale model for reactive wetting simulations

Here, we describe a data-driven, multiscale technique to model reactive wetting of a silver–aluminum alloy on a Kovar™ (Fe-Ni-Co alloy) surface. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the dependence of surface tension and wetting angle on the drop’s composition and temperature. A design of computational experiments is used to efficiently generate training data of surface tension and wetting angle from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results are used to parameterize models of the material’s wetting properties and compute the uncertainty in the models due to limited data. The data-driven models are incorporated into an engineering-scale (continuum) model of a silver–aluminum sessile drop on a Kovar™ substrate. Model predictions of the wetting angle are compared with experiments of pure silver spreading on Kovar™ to quantify the model-form errors introduced by the limited training data versus the simplifications inherent in the molecular dynamics simulations. The paper presents innovations in the determination of “convergence” of noisy MD simulations before they are used to extract the wetting angle and surface tension, and the construction of their models which approximate physio-chemical processes that are left unresolved by the engineering-scale model. Together, these constitute a multiscale approach that integrates molecular-scale information into continuum scale models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2003

Computational And Experimental Studies Of Three-Dimensional Flame Spread Over Liquid Fuel Pools

Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) studied ignition and flame spread above liquid fuels initially below the flashpoint temperature by using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that solves the coupled equations of both the gas and the liquid phases. Pulsating flame spread was attributed to the establishment of a gas-phase recirculation cell that forms just ahead of the flame leading edge because of the opposing effect of buoyancy-driven flow in the gas phase and the thermocapillary-driven flow in the liquid phase. Schiller and Sirignano (1996) extended the same study to include flame spread with forced opposed flow in the gas phase. A transitional flow velocity was found above which an originally uniform spreading flame pulsates. The same type of gas-phase recirculation cell caused by the combination of forced opposed flow, buoyancy-driven flow, and thermocapillary-driven concurrent flow was responsible for the pulsating flame spread. Ross and Miller (1998) and Miller and Ross (1998) performed experimental work that corroborates the computational findings of Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) and Schiller and Sirignano (1996). Cai, Liu, and Sirignano (2002) developed a more comprehensive three-dimensional model and computer code for the flame spread problem. Many improvements in modeling and numerical algorithms were incorporated in the three-dimensional model. Pools of finite width and length were studied in air channels of prescribed height and width. Significant three-dimensional effects around and along the pool edge were observed. The same three-dimensional code is used to study the detailed effects of pool depth, pool width, opposed air flow velocity, and different levels of air oxygen concentration (Cai, Liu, and Sirignano, 2003). Significant three-dimensional effects showing an unsteady wavy flame front for cases of wide pool width are found for the first time in computation, after being noted previously by experimental observers (Ross and Miller, 1999). Regions of uniform and pulsating flame spread are mapped for the flow conditions of pool depth, opposed flow velocity, initial pool temperature, and air oxygen concentration under both normal and microgravity conditions. Details can be found in Cai et al. (2002, 2003). Experimental results recently performed at NASA Glenn of flame spread across a wide, shallow pool as a function of liquid temperature are also presented here.

Ross, Howard D.↗