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At least 379 records · Page 21

Grassland disturbance increases monarch butterfly oviposition and decreases arthropod predator abundance

Many species of conservation concern depend on disturbance to create or maintain suitable habitat. We evaluated effects of disturbance on the eastern migratory monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.), which has declined markedly in recent decades, primarily attributed to the loss of milkweed host plants from annual crop fields in the US Midwest. Currently, remaining milkweeds in this region primarily occur in perennial grasslands, where disturbance is infrequent, predatory arthropods are abundant, and seasonal patterns of plant phenology differ from crop fields. In a two-year study in Michigan, USA, we applied three treatments to 23 patches of common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.); one-third of each patch was left undisturbed, while the remaining thirds were mowed in either mid-June or mid-July, respectively, and allowed to regenerate. We subsequently measured effects on monarch oviposition, predator abundance, survival of sentinel eggs and larvae, and tested how milkweed phenology and aphid colonization—both of which are reset by disturbance—structure predation risk for immature monarchs. Monarchs laid more eggs on regenerating versus undisturbed stems under both mowing regimes. Predators were strongly suppressed by mowing treatments, requiring 2–4 weeks to recolonize milkweed after disturbance, and were more abundant on flowering or aphid-infested stems. We found no significant differences in monarch egg/larval survival, although it tended to be higher in mowed plots. Overall, monarchs laid more eggs on regenerating stems where their offspring may also experience enemy-free space. Future work should focus on testing grassland disturbance as a management tool to improve productivity of existing monarch breeding habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike N439K variants maintain fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate and evade immunity, with consequences for efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Here, we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is a highly variable region of S and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent, sentinel RBM mutation, N439K. We demonstrate N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and N439K viruses have similar in vitro replication fitness and cause infections with similar clinical outcomes as compared to wild type. We show the N439K mutation confers resistance against several neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one authorized for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and reduces the activity of some polyclonal sera from persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A machine learning pipeline for identifying infiltration managed aquifer recharge locations from satellite imagery in the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study focuses on an agricultural region in California’s Central Valley, USA, where Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is widely implemented to mitigate groundwater depletion under increasing water demand and climate variability. A deep learning and machine learning framework was developed to identify infiltration-MAR locations using satellite imagery and environmental data. The framework integrates surface water detection from Sentinel-2 imagery, geospatial delineation of water bodies, spatiotemporal tracking of water body dynamics, and supervised classification using meteorological, environmental, and topographic variables. The framework was applied to a 2379 km² study area southwest of Fresno, where 765 water bodies were detected, including 139 identified MAR sites based on publicly available datasets and expert knowledge. The classification model achieved an accuracy of 0.94 and an F1 score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis indicates that cropland, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and evaporation are among the most influential predictors for infiltration-MAR. Notably, the framework suggests that engineered water management in infiltration-MAR systems can disrupt or even reverse the expected positive correlation between surface water extent and precipitation. These findings provide physically interpretable insights into the characteristics of existing infiltration-MAR facilities and demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a reproducible, interpretable, and potentially transferable tool for data-driven infiltration-MAR identification and inventory development under growing climatic and hydrological uncertainty.

Classification↗

Immunomodulatory effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and perfluoroalkyl acids in East Greenland ringed seals (Pusa hispida)

To better elucidate the potential immune-related health effects of exposure to environmentally persistent organic pollutants (POP), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), in ringed seals (Pusa hispida), a sentinel Arctic species, we assessed 1) associations between mitogen-induced lymphocyte proliferation and in vivo tissue contaminant burdens, and 2) the concentration-response effects of in vitro exposure to PFASs and PCB congeners on mitogen-induced lymphocyte proliferation. Upon in vitro contaminant exposure, the non-coplanar PCB congeners CB 138, 153, and 180, but not the coplanar CB 169, significantly reduced lymphocyte proliferation between 10 and 20 µg g{sup −1} ww. The respective in vitro EC{sub 50} values for these congeners were 13.3, 20.7, 20.8, and 54.6 µg g{sup −1} ww. No modulation of lymphocyte proliferation was observed upon in vitro exposure to two individual PFASs, perfluorooctane sulphonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), at concentrations up to 1000 ng g-1. In addition, no significant correlations were found between lymphocyte proliferation and any blood or blubber contaminant measured. Taken together, these data suggest this population of ringed seals is not currently at high risk of altered lymphocyte proliferation from exposure to the POPs or PFASs in this study. - Highlights: • Assess relationships between tissue contaminants and changes in immune function. • Risk for contaminant-induced immunotoxicity in East Greenland ringed seal is low. • Weight of evidence suggest non-coplanar PCBs are immunotoxic at high concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The G2 erosion model: An algorithm for month-time step assessments

Highlights: • G2 is a soil erosion model for developing monthly erosion maps at regional scale. • G2 enhances the spatio-temporal variability of cover management and erosivity factors. • The V-factor models the impact of vegetation cover, land use and imperviousness layer. • G2 uses data from ESDAC, LUCAS, COPERNICUS, CORINE, SENTINEL and EU-DEM databases. • G2 has been applied in Strymonas Catchment, Crete, Cyprus and Albania catchments. A detailed description of the G2 erosion model is presented, in order to support potential users. G2 is a complete, quantitative algorithm for mapping soil loss and sediment yield rates on month-time intervals. G2 has been designed to run in a GIS environment, taking input from geodatabases available by European or other international institutions. G2 adopts fundamental equations from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Erosion Potential Method (EPM), especially for rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, and sediment delivery ratio. However, it has developed its own equations and matrices for the vegetation cover and management factor and the effect of landscape alterations on erosion. Provision of month-time step assessments is expected to improve understanding of erosion processes, especially in relation to land uses and climate change. In parallel, G2 has full potential to decision-making support with standardised maps on a regular basis. Geospatial layers of rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, and terrain influence, recently developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) on a European or global scale, will further facilitate applications of G2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Macro and trace elements in Paracentrotus lividus gonads from South West Atlantic areas

Highlights: • High levels of Pb and Hg in sea urchin gonads collected in open areas. • Studied areas seem to be suitable for the sustainable exploitation of sea urchin. • Levels of toxic elements in gonads were below MLs, not constituting a health risk. Sea urchin represents one of the most valuable seafood product being harvested and explored for their edible part, the gonads or roe. This species is generally considered a sentinel organism for ecotoxicological studies being widely used in monitoring programs to assess coastal aquatic environments quality, because is directly exposed to anthropogenic contaminants in their habitat. In this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the concentrations of macro (Cl, K, P, Ca, S) and trace (Zn, Br, Fe, Sr, I, Se, Rb, Cu, Cr, Ni, As, iAs, Cd, Pb, Hg) elements in Paracentrotus lividus gonads from three South West Atlantic production areas subjected to distinct environmental and anthropogenic pressures. In all studied areas, the elements profile in sea urchin gonads was Cl > K > P > Ca > S > Zn > Br > Fe > Sr > I > Rb > Cu > Se > Cr > Ni, suggesting an element guide profile with special interest for sea urchin farming development. Concerning toxic elements, the profile was the following: As > Cd > Pb > Hg > iAs. The results evidenced higher levels of Pb and Hg in open areas. Distinct area characteristics and anthropogenic pressures of production areas evidence the importance of biomonitoring contaminants, particularly toxic elements. In general, the levels of these elements were below maximum levels in foodstuffs (MLs) which pose a minimal health risk to consumers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How to estimate soil organic carbon stocks of agricultural fields? perspectives using ex-ante evaluation

Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of agricultural fields has a range of important applications from development of sustainable management practices to monitoring carbon stocks. There are many estimation strategies with the potential for more reliable estimates of SOC stock and more efficient use of soil sampling and analysis resources, especially by leveraging readily available auxiliary information such as remote sensing. However, concrete guidance for strategy selection is lacking. This study narrows this gap with a comparison of strategies for estimating deep SOC stock (0–60 cm) in a prototypical field. Using high density SOC stock measurements and simulation, we built on past studies by 1) ex-ante evaluating a large number of strategy options, 2) using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of the comparison, and 3) considering multiple Bayesian models to assess sensitivity to this modeling choice. We found that, using readily available auxiliary information, both balanced and stratified sampling offer substantial improvements over simple random sampling. The auxiliary information most important for this improvement is a Sentinel-2 SOC index = blue / (green × red), followed by the topographic wetness index. We found that these results are robust to the choice of mapping method, but that there is uncertainty in the magnitude of improvement. Here, we recommend future studies implement this Bayesian approach for simulated ex-ante evaluation of SOC stock estimation strategies across more fields to investigate the generalizability of these findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agricultural Risk Factors Influence Microbial Ecology in Honghu Lake

Agricultural activities, including stock-farming, planting industry, and fish aquaculture, can affect the physicochemical and biological characters of freshwater lakes. However, the effects of pollution producing by agricultural activities on microbial ecosystem of lakes remain unclear. Hence, in this work, we selected Honghu Lake as a typical lake that is influenced by agriculture activities. We collected water and sediment samples from 18 sites, which span a wide range of areas from impacted and less-impacted areas. We performed a geospatial analysis on the composition of microbial communities associated with physicochemical properties and antibiotic pollution of samples. The co-occurrence networks of water and sediment were also built and analyzed. Our results showed that the microbial communities of impacted and less-impacted samples of water were largely driven by the concentrations of TN, TP, NO3--N, and NO2--N, while those of sediment were affected by the concentrations of Sed-OM and Sed-TN. Antibiotics have also played important roles in shaping these microbial communities: the concentrations of oxytetracycline and tetracycline clearly reflected the variance in taxonomic diversity and predicted functional diversity between impacted and less-impacted sites in water and sediment samples, respectively. Furthermore, for samples from both water and sediment, large differences of network topology structures between impacted and less-impacted were also observed. Our results provide compelling evidence that the microbial community can be used as a sentinel of eutrophication and antibiotics pollution risk associated with agricultural activity; and that proper monitoring of this environment is vital to maintain a sustainable environment in Honghu Lake.

Agriculture activities↗

Locoregional Recurrence Risk for Patients With T1,2 Breast Cancer With 1-3 Positive Lymph Nodes Treated With Mastectomy and Systemic Treatment

Purpose: Postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) has been shown to benefit breast cancer patients with 1 to 3 positive lymph nodes, but it is unclear how modern changes in management have affected the benefits of PMRT. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed the locoregional recurrence (LRR) rates in 1027 patients with T1,2 breast cancer with 1 to 3 positive lymph nodes treated with mastectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy with or without PMRT during an early era (1978-1997) and a later era (2000-2007). These eras were selected because they represented periods before and after the routine use of sentinel lymph node surgery, taxane chemotherapy, and aromatase inhibitors. Results: 19% of 505 patients treated in the early era and 25% of the 522 patients in the later era received PMRT. Patients who received PMRT had significantly higher-risk disease features. PMRT reduced the rate of LRR in the early era cohort, with 5-year rates of 9.5% without PMRT and 3.4% with PMRT (log-rank P=.028) and 15-year rates 14.5% versus 6.1%, respectively; (Cox regression analysis: adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 0.37, P=.035). However, PMRT did not appear to benefit patients treated in the later cohort, with 5-year LRR rates of 2.8% without PMRT and 4.2% with PMRT (P=.48; Cox analysis: AHR 1.41, P=.48). The most significant factor predictive of LRR for the patients who did not receive PMRT was the era in which the patient was treated (AHR 0.35 for later era, P<.001). Conclusion: The risk of LRR for patients with T1,2 breast cancer with 1 to 3 positive lymph nodes treated with mastectomy and systemic treatment is highly dependent on the era of treatment. Modern treatment advances and the selected use of PMRT for those with high-risk features have allowed for identification of a cohort at very low risk for LRR without PMRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Management of the Regional Lymph Nodes Following Breast-Conservation Therapy for Early-Stage Breast Cancer: An Evolving Paradigm

Radiation therapy to the breast following breast conservation surgery has been the standard of care since randomized trials demonstrated equivalent survival compared to mastectomy and improved local control and survival compared to breast conservation surgery alone. Recent controversies regarding adjuvant radiation therapy have included the potential role of additional radiation to the regional lymph nodes. This review summarizes the evolution of regional nodal management focusing on 2 topics: first, the changing paradigm with regard to surgical evaluation of the axilla; second, the role for regional lymph node irradiation and optimal design of treatment fields. Contemporary data reaffirm prior studies showing that complete axillary dissection may not provide additional benefit relative to sentinel lymph node biopsy in select patient populations. Preliminary data also suggest that directed nodal radiation therapy to the supraclavicular and internal mammary lymph nodes may prove beneficial; publication of several studies are awaited to confirm these results and to help define subgroups with the greatest likelihood of benefit.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Boost Effect on Local Tumor Control in Young Women With Breast Cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the local control rate and complications of a single fraction of high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR BT) boost in women aged 45 yeas and younger after breast-conserving therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1999 and 2007, 167 patients between the ages of 26 and 45 years old (72 were 40 years old or younger), with stages T1 to T2 invasive breast cancer with disease-free margin status of at least 5 mm after breast-conserving surgery received 46 to 50 Gy whole-breast irradiation plus a 7-Gy HDR-BT boost (“fast boost”). An axillary dissection was performed in 72.5% of the patients and sentinel lymph node biopsy in 27.5%. A supraclavicular area was irradiated in 19% of the patients. Chemotherapy was used in 86% of the patients and hormone treatment in 77%. Clinical nodes were present in 18% and pathological nodes in 29%. The pathological stage was pT0: 5%, pTis: 3%, pT1: 69% and pT2: 23%. Intraductal component was present in 40% and 28% were G3. Results: At a median follow-up of 92 months, 9 patients relapsed on the margin of the implant, and 1 patient in another quadrant, resulting in a 10-year local relapse rate of 4.3% and a breast relapse rate of 4.9%, with breast preservation in 93.4%; no case of mastectomy due to poor cosmesis arose. Actuarial 5- and 10-year disease-free, cause-specific, and overall survival rates were 87.9% and 85.8%, and 92.1% and 88.4%, and 92.1% and 87.3%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, triple-negative cases and negative hormone receptors did worse, but in a multivariate analysis, only the last factor was significant for local and breast control. Asymptomatic fibrosis G2 was recorded in 3 cases, and there were no other late complications. Cosmetic results were good to excellent in 97% of cases. Conclusions: A single dose of 7 Gy using the fast-boost technique is well tolerated, with a low rate of late complications and improved local tumor control in women aged 45 and younger, compared to published data. This approach is recommended in breast-preserving treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Patterns of Local-Regional Management Following Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Breast Cancer: Results From ACOSOG Z1071 (Alliance)

Purpose: American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z1071 was a prospective trial evaluating the false negative rate of sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients with initial node-positive disease. Radiation therapy (RT) decisions were made at the discretion of treating physicians, providing an opportunity to evaluate variability in practice patterns following NAC. Methods and Materials: Of 756 patients enrolled from July 2009 to June 2011, 685 met all eligibility requirements. Surgical approach, RT, and radiation field design were analyzed based on presenting clinical and pathologic factors. Results: Of 401 node-positive patients, mastectomy was performed in 148 (36.9%), mastectomy with immediate reconstruction in 107 (26.7%), and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in 146 patients (36.4%). Of the 284 pathologically node-negative patients, mastectomy was performed in 84 (29.6%), mastectomy with immediate reconstruction in 69 (24.3%), and BCS in 131 patients (46.1%). Bilateral mastectomy rates were higher in women undergoing reconstruction than in those without (66.5% vs 32.2%, respectively, P<.0001). Use of internal mammary RT was low (7.8%-11.2%) and did not differ between surgical approaches. Supraclavicular RT rate ranged from 46.6% to 52.2% and did not differ between surgical approaches but was omitted in 193 or 408 node-positive patients (47.3%). Rate of axillary RT was more frequent in patients who remained node-positive (P=.002). However, 22% of patients who converted to node-negative still received axillary RT. Post-mastectomy RT was more frequently omitted after reconstruction than mastectomy (23.9% vs 12.1%, respectively, P=.002) and was omitted in 19 of 107 patients (17.8%) with residual node-positive disease in the reconstruction group. Conclusions: Most clinically node-positive patients treated with NAC undergoing mastectomy receive RT. RT is less common in patients undergoing reconstruction. There is wide variability in RT fields. These practice patterns conflict with expert recommendations and ongoing trial guidelines. There is a significant need for greater uniformity and guidelines regarding RT following NAC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Quality of Life in Women Undergoing Breast Irradiation in a Randomized, Controlled Clinical Trial Evaluating Different Tumor Bed Boost Fractionations

Purpose: To identify differences in breast cancer patient-reported quality of life (QOL) between 2 radiation tumor bed boost dose regimens. Methods and Materials: Four hundred patients with stage 0, I, or II breast cancer who underwent segmental mastectomy with sentinel node biopsy and/or axillary node dissection were treated with either a daily or weekly boost. Patients were treated prone to 40.5 Gy/15 fractions to the whole breast, 5 days per week. Patients were randomized to a concomitant daily boost to the tumor bed of 0.5 Gy, or a weekly boost of 2 Gy on Friday. Patients completed 6 validated QOL survey instruments at baseline, last week of treatment (3 weeks), 45-60 days from the completion of radiation treatment, and at 2-year follow-up. Results: There were no statistically significance differences in responses to the 6 QOL instruments between the daily and weekly radiation boost regimens, even after adjustment for important covariates. However, several changes in responses over time occurred in both arms, including worsening functional status, cosmetic status, and breast-specific pain at the end of treatment as compared with before and 45 to 60 days after the conclusion of treatment. Conclusions: Whole-breast, prone intensity modulated radiation has similar outcomes in QOL measures whether given with a daily or weekly boost. This trial has generated the foundation for a current study of weekly versus daily radiation boost in women with early breast cancer in which 3-dimensional conformal radiation is allowed as a prospective stratification factor.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Use of Geriatric Assessment Tools in Selecting Therapies in Women Aged ≥70 Years With Hormone Receptor–Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Preliminary Experience With a Quality Improvement Initiative

Purpose: To develop a multidisciplinary algorithmic approach to management of women aged ≥70 years with clinically staged T1N0 hormone receptor–positive breast cancer, including geriatric assessments predicting life expectancy and the likelihood of functional decline in the near future, in the context of a program-wide quality improvement initiative, to better select patients for therapeutic interventions. Methods and Materials: Two geriatric assessment tools, the Combined Lee-Schonberg Index and the Vulnerable Elderly Scale, were introduced into our clinical workflow to predict long-term mortality and likelihood of functional decline. Scores from these tools, along with patient preferences and clinical features, were incorporated into a preoperative algorithm addressing the use of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), and a postoperative algorithm addressing the use of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT). Results: The algorithms were approved for use in August 2015. Twenty-four patients were identified by in-clinic screening and have been managed using the algorithms as a guide. Mean patient age was 80 years (range, 71-89 years). Per the preoperative algorithm, consideration of omission of SLNB was an option in 11 of 24 patients (46%), and in total 18 of 24 (75%) opted against SLNB. Per the postsurgical algorithm, consideration of omission of adjuvant RT was an option for 19 of 24 patients (79%), and in total 17 of 24 (71%) opted to forego RT. Conclusion: Incorporation of simple geriatric assessments seems to have had a marked impact on decision making regarding both surgical and adjuvant therapies for women aged ≥70 years with early-stage hormone-positive breast cancer compared with historical patterns, with ≥71% omission of both SLNB and adjuvant RT in patients managed according to an institutional quality improvement initiative.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗

The efficacy and ecological impact of mercury sorbents on the physiology and reproductive fitness of Daphnia magna

Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination threatens ecosystems due to its bioaccumulation and toxicity. Effective and sustainable remediation strategies are essential, with carbon-based sorbents like biochar (BC) and activated carbon (AC) gaining attention for their high adsorption capacity and cost-effectiveness. However, their ecological impacts remain poorly understood. This study evaluates the Hg removal efficacy and ecological effects of three sorbents—BC, granular AC (GAC), and AC fiber (ACF)—in a flow-through column system with and without Hg additions. We tested Hg removal at two concentrations (1 and 4 µg/L Hg) and assessed chronic exposure effects on a sentinel and sensitive freshwater organism, Daphnia magna, over 30 days of exposure to the columns’ effluent. GAC removed 100 % of Hg, while BC and ACF achieved 99 % removal. The ACF + 4 µg/L Hg effluent induced 70 % lethality in D. magna after nearly three weeks of exposure, while the GAC effluent significantly reduced fecundity, even in the absence of Hg exposure. In contrast, the BC effluent enhanced reproductive output, likely due to inputs of carbon and nitrogen in the effluent. These findings highlight the need to balance Hg removal efficacy with ecological safety, emphasizing the importance of considering both remediation effectiveness and potential environmental impacts.

Activated carbon↗

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. In this work, we observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 10 6 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗