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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1999

Meteoroids and Meteor Storms: A Threat to Spacecraft

Robust system design is the best protection against meteoroid damage. Impacts by small meteoroids are common on satellite surfaces, but impacts by meteoroids large enough to damage well designed systems are very rare. Estimating the threat from the normal meteoroid environment is difficult. Estimates for the occasional "storm" are even more uncertain. Common sense precautions are in order for the 1999 Leonids, but wide-spread catastrophic damage is highly unlikely. Strong Leonid showers are also expected in 2000 and 2001, but these pose much less threat than 1999.

Anderson, B. Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗
NASA NTRS2004

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Severe Storm Observations and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dual-Polarization, Multi-Frequency Antenna Array for use with Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

Advancements in common aperture antenna technology were employed to utilize its proprietary genetic algorithmbased modeling tools in an effort to develop, build, and test a dual-polarization array for Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) applications. Final program results demonstrate the ability to achieve a lightweight, thin, higher-gain aperture that covers the desired spectral band. NASA employs various passive microwave and millimeter-wave instruments, such as spectral radiometers, for a range of remote sensing applications, from measurements of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, to cosmic background emission. These instruments such as the HIRAD, SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer), and LRR (Lightweight Rainfall Radiometer), provide unique data accumulation capabilities for observing sea surface wind, temperature, and rainfall, and significantly enhance the understanding and predictability of hurricane intensity. These microwave instruments require extremely efficient wideband or multiband antennas in order to conserve space on the airborne platform. In addition, the thickness and weight of the antenna arrays is of paramount importance in reducing platform drag, permitting greater time on station. Current sensors are often heavy, single- polarization, or limited in frequency coverage. The ideal wideband antenna will have reduced size, weight, and profile (a conformal construct) without sacrificing optimum performance. The technology applied to this new HIRAD array will allow NASA, NOAA, and other users to gather information related to hurricanes and other tropical storms more cost effectively without sacrificing sensor performance or the aircraft time on station. The results of the initial analysis and numerical design indicated strong potential for an antenna array that would satisfy all of the design requirements for a replacement HIRAD array. Multiple common aperture antenna methodologies were employed to achieve exceptional gain over the entire spectral frequency band while exhibiting superb VSWR (voltage standing wave ratio) values. Element size and spacing requirements were addressed for a direct replacement of the thicker, lower-performance, stack ed patch antenna array currently employed for the HIRAD application. Several variants to the multiband arrays were developed that exhibited four, equally spaced, high efficiency, "sweet spot" frequency bands, as well as the option for a high-performance wideband array. The 0.25-in. (≈6.4- mm) thickness of the antenna stack-up itself was achieved through the application of specialized antenna techniques and meta-materials to accomplish all design objectives.

Little, John↗
NASA NTRS2010

TPSAS-NF1676L-11609-DND

China and much of East Asia experienced a drought in the spring of 2010 that is said to be the worst in the past century. Strong winds (wind speed > 7 m/s) occurred in spring this year ~40% more than average in recent years. MODIS imagery indicates numerous major dust storms occurring in the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts. Intense, persistent dust was subsequently observed over North America by space-based, airborne and ground-based lidars during April 2010. Using CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP) measurements and air parcel back trajectories, we track the dust measured over North America back to East Asian source regions (mainly in the Tarim Basin). We also interpret the CALIOP and other A-Train observations using results from a 3D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and investigate the meteorological context that gave rise to these dust storms.

Z Liu↗
NASA NTRS1976

F-region enhancements induced by solar flares

ATS-6 total electron content (NT) observations during solar flares exhibit four types of response: (1) a sudden increase in NT (SITEC) for about 2 min with several maxima in growth rate, then a maximum or a distinct slowing in growth, followed by a slow smooth increase to a flat peak, and finally a slow decay in NT; (2) a SITEC that occurs during ionospheric storms, where NT decays abruptly after the first maximum; (3) slow enhancements devoid of distinct impulsive structure in growth rate; and (4) no distinct response in NT, even for relatively large soft X-ray flares. Flare-induced increases in NT are dominated by low-loss F2 ionization produced by 90-911-A emission. The impulsive flare component is relatively intense in the 90-911-A range, but is short lived and weak for flares near the edge of the visible solar disk and for certain slow flares. The impulsive flare component produces the rapid rise, the sharp maxima in growth rate, and the first maximum in SITECs. The slow flare components are strong in the 1-90-A range but relatively weak in the 90-911-A range and accumulatively contribute to the second maximum in type 1 and 3 events, except during storms when F2 loss rates are abnormally high in type 2 events.

Donnelly, R. F.↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MAJOR GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR ERUPTIONS OF 2012 MARCH 7: COMPREHENSIVE SUN-TO-EARTH ANALYSIS

During the interval 2012 March 7–11 the geospace experienced a barrage of intense space weather phenomena including the second largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far. Significant ultra-low-frequency wave enhancements and relativistic-electron dropouts in the radiation belts, as well as strong energetic-electron injection events in the magnetosphere were observed. These phenomena were ultimately associated with two ultra-fast (>2000 km s{sup −1}) coronal mass ejections (CMEs), linked to two X-class flares launched on early 2012 March 7. Given that both powerful events originated from solar active region NOAA 11429 and their onsets were separated by less than an hour, the analysis of the two events and the determination of solar causes and geospace effects are rather challenging. Using satellite data from a flotilla of solar, heliospheric and magnetospheric missions a synergistic Sun-to-Earth study of diverse observational solar, interplanetary and magnetospheric data sets was performed. It was found that only the second CME was Earth-directed. Using a novel method, we estimated its near-Sun magnetic field at 13 R{sub ⊙} to be in the range [0.01, 0.16] G. Steep radial fall-offs of the near-Sun CME magnetic field are required to match the magnetic fields of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) at 1 AU. Perturbed upstream solar-wind conditions, as resulting from the shock associated with the Earth-directed CME, offer a decent description of its kinematics. The magnetospheric compression caused by the arrival at 1 AU of the shock associated with the ICME was a key factor for radiation-belt dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On CCN Effects upon Convective Cold Pool Timing and Features

Abstract Cold pools produced by deep convection can initiate new convection, and their representation in larger-scale weather and climate models could improve prediction of the extent and timing of upscale growth. Cold pools originate from latent cooling from precipitation changing phase, but little attention has been paid to microphysical influences on cold pool characteristics, particularly CCN effects. Datasets obtained from the CACTI and RELAMPAGO field campaigns, along with idealized numerical modeling, are utilized to investigate the hypothesis that convective storms forming in higher-CCN environments generate their first surface rainfall later, delaying cold pool initiation. Aircraft observations of CCN and shallow convection on 9 days do suggest a CCN effect. Those ingesting more CCN contained fewer drizzle drops, although a decreased cloud depth with increasing CCN was also likely a limiting factor. In three of those cases that later developed into deep convection, the timing of cold pool onset was not ubiquitously delayed in environments with more CCN. Idealized numerical simulations suggest that an ordinary thunderstorm can experience small delays in cold pool onset with increasing CCN due to changes in graupel production, but CCN effects on the cold pool from a supercell thunderstorm can be easily overpowered by its unique dynamics. A strong inverse relationship between cold pool strength, expansion rate, and depth with increasing CCN is suggested by the results of the ordinary thunderstorm simulation. Further consideration of CCN appears warranted for future cold pool parameterization development, but other environmental factors affecting storm morphology and precipitation cannot be ignored.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2016

Prompt acceleration of magnetospheric electrons to ultrarelativistic energies by the 17 March 2015 interplanetary shock

Trapped electrons in Earth's outer Van Allen radiation belt are influenced profoundly by solar phenomena such as high-speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections (CME), and interplanetary (IP) shocks. In particular, strong IP shocks compress the magnetosphere suddenly and result in rapid energization of electrons within minutes. It is believed that the electric fields induced by the rapid change in the geomagnetic field are responsible for the energization. During the latter part of March 2015, a CME impact led to the most powerful geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -223 nT at 17 March, 23 UT) observed not only during the Van Allen Probe era but also the entire preceding decade. Magnetospheric response in the outer radiation belt eventually resulted in elevated levels of energized electrons. The CME itself was preceded by a strong IP shock whose immediate effects vis-a-vis electron energization were observed by sensors on board the Van Allen Probes. The comprehensive and high-quality data from the Van Allen Probes enable the determination of the location of the electron injection, timescales, and spectral aspects of the energized electrons. The observations clearly show that ultrarelativistic electrons with energies E > 6 MeV were injected deep into the magnetosphere at L ≈ 3 within about 2 min of the shock impact. However, electrons in the energy range of ≈250 keV to ≈900 keV showed no immediate response to the IP shock. Finally, electric and magnetic fields resulting from the shock-driven compression complete the comprehensive set of observations that provide a full description of the near-instantaneous electron energization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prompt Acceleration of Magnetospheric Electrons to Ultrarelativistic Energies by the 17 March 2015 Interplanetary Shock

Trapped electrons in Earth's outer Van Allen radiation belt are influenced profoundly by solar phenomena such as high-speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections (CME), and interplanetary (IP) shocks. In particular, strong IP shocks compress the magnetosphere suddenly and result in rapid energization of electrons within minutes. It is believed that the electric fields induced by the rapid change in the geomagnetic field are responsible for the energization. During the latter part of March 2015, a CME impact led to the most powerful geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = −223 nT at 17 March, 23 UT) observed not only during the Van Allen Probe era but also the entire preceding decade. Magnetospheric response in the outer radiation belt eventually resulted in elevated levels of energized electrons. The CME itself was preceded by a strong IP shock whose immediate effects vis-a-vis electron energization were observed by sensors on board the Van Allen Probes. The comprehensive and high-quality data from the Van Allen Probes enable the determination of the location of the electron injection, timescales, and spectral aspects of the energized electrons. The observations clearly show that ultrarelativistic electrons with energies E greater than 6 MeV were injected deep into the magnetosphere at L approximately equals 3 within about 2 min of the shock impact. However, electrons in the energy range of approximately equals 250 keV to approximately equals 900 keV showed no immediate response to the IP shock. Electric and magnetic fields resulting from the shock-driven compression complete the comprehensive set of observations that provide a full description of the near-instantaneous electron energization.

radiation belts↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnection to the Location of ENSO Heating

The Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to anomalous convection in the tropical western and eastern Pacific Ocean is distinctly different. The response to westward-located heating has a meridional dipole in the South Pacific with large zonal scale and appears unable to be interpreted simply as a stationary Rossby wave train that disperses poleward and eastward from a tropical source like the meridionally arched response to eastward-located heating. Here, this study investigates the cause of this asymmetry by examining the daily evolution of the response to suddenly switching on steady diabatic heating over a western and central/eastern equatorial Pacific location using large-ensemble integrations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. We focus on the austral winter months when the subtropical jet supports the development of an effective Rossby wave source in the subtropical westerlies and acts as a waveguide. We show that the subtropical jet strongly influences the height response to the western tropical Pacific heating, promoting prominent zonal circumglobal propagation. Development of a transient eddy feedback in the extratropical storm track after approximately 10 days appears to play a primary role in establishing the time-mean response, which we test through comparison with similar experiments conducted using a simplified linear model. Conversely, the height anomalies for eastern tropical Pacific heating, farther away from the subtropical jet core, have larger meridional propagation, dispersing in a typical Hoskins–Karoly manner into the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, while the transient eddy feedback plays a secondary role for the establishment of the steady response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Particle entry into the equatorial magnetosphere.

Explorer-45 data are reviewed which concern the behavior and dynamics of protons associated with the storm-time and quiet-time extraterrestrial ring current at the equatorial plane. The quiet-time proton energy spectrum exhibits a peak in the interval between 100 and 200 keV. During storm conditions, the intensities of the higher energy protons decrease while the intensities of protons from 10 to 100 keV are greatly enhanced, making them the dominant contributor to the storm-time particle energy density. It is shown that during magnetic storms, the ratio of the particle energy density to the magnetic field energy density reaches values greater than unity, and that the plasmasphere has a strong influence on the characteristics of particle injection.

Fritz, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Delineating mid- and low-level water vapor patterns in pre-convective environments using VAS moisture channels

Infrared and visible imagery from VAS are used to delineate mid- and lower-tropospheric moisture fields for a variety of severe storm cases in the southern and central United States. The ability of sequences of images to isolate areas of large negative vertical moisture gradients and apparent convective instability prior to the onset of convective storms is assessed. A variety of image combination procedures are used to deduce the stability fields which are then compared with the available radiosonde data. The results for several severe storm cases indicate that VAS can detect mid- and low-level mesoscale water vapor fields as distinct radiometric signals. The VAS imagery shows a strong tendency for thunderstorms to develop along the edges of bands of midlevel dryness as they overtake either preexisting or developing low-level moisture maxima. Image sequences depict the speed with which deep moist and dry layers can develop and move.

Petersen, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Radio and Plasma Wave Observations at Saturn from Cassini's Approach and First Orbit

We report data from the Cassini radio and plasma wave instrument during the approach and first orbit at Saturn. During the approach, radio emissions from Saturn showed that the radio rotation period is now 10 hours 45 minutes 45 k 36 seconds, about 6 minutes longer than measured by Voyager in 1980 to 1981. In addition, many intense impulsive radio signals were detected from Saturn lightning during the approach and first orbit. Some of these have been linked to storm systems observed by the Cassini imaging instrument. Within the magnetosphere, whistler-mode auroral hiss emissions were observed near the rings, suggesting that a strong electrodynamic interaction is occurring in or near the rings.

Gurnett, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Acceleration of Magnetospheric Relativistic Electrons by Ultra-Low Frequency Waves: A Comparison between Two Cases Observed by Cluster and LANL Satellites

Understanding the origin and acceleration of magnetospheric relativistic electrons (MREs) in the Earth's radiation belt during geomagnetic storms is an important subject and yet one of outstanding questions in space physics. It has been statistically suggested that during geomagnetic storms, ultra-low-frequency (ULF) Pc-5 wave activities in the magnetosphere are correlated with order of magnitude increase of MRE fluxes in the outer radiation belt. Yet, physical and observational understandings of resonant interactions between ULF waves and MREs remain minimum. In this paper, we show two events during storms on September 25, 2001 and November 25, 2001, the solar wind speeds in both cases were > 500 km/s while Cluster observations indicate presence of strong ULF waves in the magnetosphere at noon and dusk, respectively, during a approx. 3-hour period. MRE observations by the Los Alamos (LANL) spacecraft show a quadrupling of 1.1-1.5 MeV electron fluxes in the September 25, 2001 event, but only a negligible increase in the November 2.5, 2001 event. We present a detailed comparison between these two events. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of MRE acceleration during the September 25, 2001 event can be attributed to the compressional wave mode with strong ULF wave activities and the physical origin of MRE acceleration depends more on the distribution of toroidal and poloidal ULF waves in the outer radiation belt.

Shao, X.↗