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DOE OSTI2015

Chapter 9, Land and Bioenergy in Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), Bioenergy & Sustainability: bridging the gaps.

In this chapter we address the questions of whether and how enough biomass could be produced to make a material contribution to global energy supply on a scale and timeline that is consistent with prominent low carbon energy scenarios. We assess whether bioenergy provision necessarily conflicts with priority ecosystem services including food security for the world s poor and vulnerable populations. In order to evaluate the potential land demand for bioenergy, we developed a set of three illustrative scenarios using specified growth rates for each bioenergy sub-sector. In these illustrative scenarios, bioenergy (traditional and modern) increases from 62 EJ/yr in 2010 to 100, 150 and 200 EJ/yr in 2050. Traditional bioenergy grows slowly, increasing by between 0.75% and 1% per year, from 40 EJ/yr in 2010 to 50 or 60 EJ/ yr in 2050, continuing as the dominant form of bioenergy until at least 2020. Across the three scenarios, total land demand is estimated to increase by between 52 and 200 Mha which can be compared with a range of potential land availability estimates from the literature of between 240 million hectares to over 1 billion hectares. Biomass feedstocks arise from combinations of residues and wastes, energy cropping and increased efficiency in supply chains for energy, food and materials. In addition, biomass has the unique capability of providing solid, liquid and gaseous forms of modern energy carriers that can be transformed into analogues to existing fuels. Because photosynthesis fixes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, biomass supply chains can be configured to store at least some of the fixed carbon in forms or ways that it will not be reemitted to the atmosphere for considerable periods of time, so-called negative emissions pathways. These attributes provide opportunities for bioenergy policies to promote longterm and sustainable options for the supply of energy for the foreseeable future.

Woods J, Lynd LR↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Independent Biotechnology: The Innovation-Regulation Dilemma

The Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory convened a workshop on August 19, 2016 to consider “Independent Biotechnology: The Innovation-Regulation Dilemma”. The topic was motivated by the observation that non-government funded biotechnology research and development activities have grown and diversified tremendously over the past decade. This sector encompasses a broad range of actors and activities: individuals with private laboratories, community “hackerspaces,” biotechnology incubators, and individual startups. Motivations and aspirations are diverse and include such things as personal curiosity, community education, the invention of new products or services, and even the realization of certain economic, political, or social goals. One driving force is the “democratization” of ever more powerful biological technologies, allowing individual citizens and groups access to capabilities that have traditionally only been available to researchers in universities, research institutes, national laboratories, and large commercial concerns. Another is the rise of alternative financing mechanisms such as “crowdsourcing,” which ostensibly provide greater freedom to innovate, and greater public visibility, but entail looser management oversight and transparency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Connecting the resource nexus to basic urban service provision – with a focus on water-energy interactions in New York City

Urban water and energy systems are crucial for sustainably meeting basic service demands in cities. Therefore, this paper proposes and applies a technology-independent “reference resource-to-service system” framework for concurrent evaluation of urban water and energy system interventions and their ‘nexus’ or ‘interlinkages’. In a concrete application, data that approximate New York City conditions are used to evaluate a limited set of interventions in the residential sector, spanning from low-flow toilet shifts to extensive green roof installations. Results indicate that interventions motivated primarily by water management goals can considerably reduce energy use and contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, energy efficiency interventions can considerably reduce water use in addition to lowering emissions. However, interventions yielding the greatest reductions in energy use and emissions are not necessarily the most water conserving ones, and vice versa. Useful further research, expanding the present analysis should consider a broader set of resource interactions, towards a full climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) nexus approach. Overall, assessing the impacts, trade-offs and co-benefits from interventions in one urban resource system on others also holds promise as support for increased resource efficiency through integrated decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quality Assurance Framework for Mini-Grids

Providing clean and affordable energy services to the more than 1 billion people globally who lack access to electricity is a critical driver for poverty reduction, economic development, improved health, and social outcomes. More than 84% of populations without electricity are located in rural areas where traditional grid extension may not be cost-effective; therefore, distributed energy solutions such as mini-grids are critical. To address some of the root challenges of providing safe, quality, and financially viable mini-grid power systems to remote customers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) teamed with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a Quality Assurance Framework (QAF) for isolated mini-grids. The QAF for mini-grids aims to address some root challenges of providing safe, quality, and affordable power to remote customers via financially viable mini-grids through two key components: (1) Levels of service: Defines a standard set of tiers of end-user service and links them to technical parameters of power quality, power availability, and power reliability. These levels of service span the entire energy ladder, from basic energy service to high-quality, high-reliability, and high-availability service (often considered 'grid parity'); (2) Accountability and performance reporting framework: Provides a clear process of validating power delivery by providing trusted information to customers, funders, and/or regulators. The performance reporting protocol can also serve as a robust monitoring and evaluation tool for mini-grid operators and funding organizations. The QAF will provide a flexible alternative to rigid top-down standards for mini-grids in energy access contexts, outlining tiers of end-user service and linking them to relevant technical parameters. In addition, data generated through implementation of the QAF will provide the foundation for comparisons across projects, assessment of impacts, and greater confidence that will drive investment and scale-up in this sector. The QAF implementation process also defines a set of implementation guidelines that help the deployment of mini-grids on a regional or national scale, helping to insure successful rapid deployment of these relatively new remote energy options. Note that the QAF is technology agnostic, addressing both alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) mini-grids, and is also applicable to renewable, fossil-fuel, and hybrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Communication Requirements in 5G-Enabled Healthcare Applications: Review and Considerations

Fifth generation (5G) mobile communication technology can enable novel healthcare applications and augment existing ones. However, 5G-enabled healthcare applications demand diverse technical requirements for radio communication. Knowledge of these requirements is important for developers, network providers, and regulatory authorities in the healthcare sector to facilitate safe and effective healthcare. In this paper, we review, identify, describe, and compare the requirements for communication key performance indicators in relevant healthcare use cases, including remote robotic-assisted surgery, connected ambulance, wearable and implantable devices, and service robotics for assisted living, with a focus on quantitative requirements. We also compare 5G-healthcare requirements with the current state of 5G capabilities. Finally, we identify gaps in the existing literature and highlight considerations for this space.

5G networks↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Space-Conditioning Loads in Commercial Buildings

Space conditioning end-uses, which include heating, cooling, and ventilation, represent a significant fraction of commercial building energy use, with a wide variety of heating and cooling technology options available in the market. In the interest of improving the overall efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) technologies, governments, utilities and private sector entities have implemented a variety of market transformation policies that aim to influence consumer purchase decisions. To evaluate the costs and benefits of such programs, analysts typically postulate a hypothetical default equipment choice, and compare it to one that provides comparable service with lower energy and/or power use. The corresponding reduced operating cost provides a benefit that offsets the potential higher cost of improved efficiency. Typically, life-cycle cost or cash-flow analyses are used to quantify the net economic benefit. These analyses require the capability to assess how a given equipment design would perform across a broad range of characteristics, both of the building and of the local weather. While these assessments can be performed using customized building simulations, it is generally not practical to develop and validate detailed building simulation code to cover all the potential variations of equipment design and installation. An alternative, and somewhat simpler, approach is to solely use detailed building simulations to generate time series of heating and cooling loads in commercial buildings. These loads can then be used as input to more detailed, stand-alone engineering models that simulate HVAC system performance under different equipment designs. This approach was used to evaluate a range of high-efficiency commercial packaged air conditioner design options for the Department of Energy’s Appliance and Equipment Standards Program (DOE-EERE 2015). While there may be some loss of precision relative to full simulation, the accuracy of this approach is sufficient for practical applications of cost-benefit analysis. This report describes the development of a database of commercial building heating and cooling loads, generated using the EnergyPlus software package, a whole building energy use model supported by the Department of Energy (DOE-EERE 2020a). EnergyPlus takes as input a set of configuration files that describe the building itself (size, zoning, envelope characteristics, etc.) and the various systems within it (HVAC, lighting, water heating, etc.). This analysis uses a publicly available collection of commercial reference buildings (CRB), comprised of sixteen building types and three vintages (DOE-EERE 2020b; Deru et al 2011). Each building is simulated in eighteen different locations, covering a wide range of climatic conditions. The prototype building description files assign the type of HVAC equipment used, and capacities across climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1998

Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Benchmarking Airline Operational Performance in Highly Regulated Environments

Enhancing competitiveness in the global airline industry is at the forefront of attention with airlines, government, and the flying public. The seemingly unchecked growth of major airline alliances is heralded as an enhancement to global competition. However, like many mega-conglomerates, mega-airlines will face complications driven by size regardless of the many recitations of enhanced efficiency. Outlined herein is a conceptual model to serve as a decision tool for policy-makers, managers, and consumers of airline services. This model is developed using public data for the United States (U.S.) major airline industry available from the U/S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and other public and private sector sources. Data points include number of accidents, pilot deviations, operational performance indicators, flight problems, and other factors. Data from these sources provide opportunity to develop a model based on a complex dot product equation of two vectors. A row vector is weighted for importance by a key informant panel of government, industry, and consumer experts, while a column vector is established with the factor value. The resulting equation, known as the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR), where Q is quality, C is weight, and V is the value of the variables, is stated Q=C[i1-19] x V[i1-19]. Looking at historical patterns of AQR results provides the basis for establishment of an industry benchmark for the purpose of enhancing airline operational performance. A 7 year average of overall operational performance provides the resulting benchmark indicator. Applications from this example can be applied to the many competitive environments of the global industry and assist policy-makers faced with rapidly changing regulatory challenges.

Bowen, Brent D.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Chapter 4 - Environmental Sustainability Aspects of Forest Biomass Mobilisation. In the book Mobilisation of Forest Bioenergy in the Boreal and Temperate Biomes

The environmental sustainability of forest biomass procurement needs to be well understood, as the capacity of ecosystems to provide biomass without negative impacts on ecological functioning limits the biomass potential. Emerging bioenergy markets typically first take advantage of secondary residue streams of various wood processing industries and tertiary end-of-life residues. The use of these secondary and tertiary wood resources is not likely to compromise the environmental sustainability of forests. When these resources in any region become scarce or fully utilized, primary residues (i.e., by-products of forestry harvesting operations and silvicultural practices) such as branches, tops, and non-merchantable trees become increasingly targeted as feedstock sources. Forest biomass procurement in the boreal and temperate biomes should therefore not be analyzed as a stand-alone activity, but rather as an intensification of land use and of forest management, in which tree parts and trees are harvested in addition to conventional forest product fractions. Thus, principles of protection and sustainability should remain the same whether forests are managed for conventional forest products only or also for biomass for energy. Some modifications may be needed to properly identify and find mitigation strategies for sensitive conditions where field evidence suggests that the incremental removal of biomass or other forms of intensive management may not be sustainable. Silvicultural practices such as fertilization, competition control, and soil preparation are options to manage the microenvironment, tree growing conditions, and prevent or mitigate negative impacts. Moreover, landscape management regulations should be put in place to ensure that sufficient biodiversity-important features such as dead wood, aging stands, corridors, etc. are preserved. Special attention should then be directed to trees and stands with high biodiversity values or those important for maintaining ecosystem services which, without a bioenergy market, would have been left uncut. Applying the concept of adaptive forest management, ecological monitoring following harvesting operations, scientific field testing and modeling should be combined to produce better knowledge that could help improve practices. The forestry sector needs to start adapting to a future situation where it is expected to provide conventional forest products, biomaterials and bioenergy. To achieve this, good governance mechanisms such as landscape-level land use planning and science-based improvements of practices will become increasingly important to ensure sustainable forest product supply chains.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Energy Efficiency Roadmap for Uganda, Making Energy Efficiency Count. Executive Summary

Like many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda has focused its energy sector investments largely on increasing energy access by increasing energy supply. The links between energy efficiency and energy access, the importance of energy efficiency in new energy supply, and the multiple benefits of energy efficiency for the level and quality of energy available, have been largely overlooked. Implementing energy efficiency in parallel with expanding both the electricity grid and new clean energy generation reduces electricity demand and helps optimize the power supply so that it can serve more customers reliably at minimum cost. Ensuring efficient appliances are incorporated into energy access efforts provides improved energy services to customers. Energy efficiency is an important contributor to access to modern energy. This Energy Efficiency Roadmap for Uganda (Roadmap) is a response to the important role that electrical energy efficiency can play in meeting Uganda’s energy goals. Power Africa and the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) initiatives collaborated with more than 24 stakeholders in Uganda to develop this document. The document estimates that if the most efficient technologies on the market were adopted, 2,224 gigawatt hours could be saved in 2030 across all sectors, representing 31% of the projected load. This translates into 341 megawatts of peak demand reductions, energy access to an additional 6 million rural customers and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 10.6 million tonnes in 2030. The Roadmap also finds that 91% of this technical potential is cost-effective, and 47% is achievable under conservative assumptions. The Roadmap prioritizes recommendations for implementing energy efficiency and maximizing benefits to meet the goals and priorities established in Uganda’s 2015 SEforALL Action Agenda. One important step is to create and increase demand for efficiency through long-term enabling policies and financial incentives combined with development of technical expertise in the labor force to allow for the promotion of new business models, such as energy service companies. A combination of enabling policies, financial schemes, regulations, enforcement, and skill development are needed to open the energy efficiency market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Material For Harsh Environments : 2020 Virtual Workshop Summary Report

This report identifies seven high-priority, crosscutting research directions for energy-producing and energy-intensive industries in which harsh service environments are experienced. Electrical power-generating technologies that could benefit include nuclear, renewable (e.g., wind, solar thermal, geothermal, and hydro), and combustion processes (e.g., hydrogen, natural gas, biomass, and coal). Investment in these research areas could drive deployment of new materials and manufacturing innovations that would, in turn, enable widespread implementation of advanced materials into the energy production and manufacturing sectors, leading to step-changes in materials systems’ performance and manufacturing efficiency. Those technological step-change advancements would stimulate and reinvigorate domestic manufacturing, improve U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, markedly improve energy efficiency in targeted energy-intensive manufacturing processes, and enable practice of technologies that reduce the carbon footprint across a broad swath of manufacturing and electricity production supply chains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

From remotely-sensed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to ecosystem structure, function, and service: Part II—Harnessing data

Although our observing capabilities of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) have been growing rapidly, the quality and consistency of SIF datasets are still in an active stage of research and development. As a result, there are considerable inconsistencies among diverse SIF datasets at all scales and the widespread applications of them have led to contradictory findings. The present review is the second of the two companion reviews, and data oriented. It aims to (1) synthesize the variety, scale, and uncertainty of existing SIF datasets, (2) synthesize the diverse applications in the sector of ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics, and (3) clarify how such data inconsistency superimposed with the theoretical complexities laid out in may impact process interpretation of various applications and contribute to inconsistent findings. We emphasize that accurate interpretation of the functional relationships between SIF and other ecological indicators is contingent upon complete understanding of SIF data quality and uncertainty. Additionally, biases and uncertainties in SIF observations can significantly confound interpretation of their relationships and how such relationships respond to environmental variations. Built upon our syntheses, we summarize existing gaps and uncertainties in current SIF observations. Further, we offer our perspectives on innovations needed to help improve informing ecosystem structure, function, and service under climate change, including enhancing in-situ SIF observing capability especially in “data desert” regions, improving cross-instrument data standardization and network coordination, and advancing applications by fully harnessing theory and data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

Energy supply, distribution, and demand are continuing to evolve as new generation sources come online and new appliances are installed. A larger percentage of the United States (U.S.) energy mix is provided by variable energy sources such as wind and solar each year, and distributed generation is becoming more common. In parallel, an evolution in consumer products such as electrical vehicles, information technology devices for residential and industrial applications, and appliances is changing how energy is consumed. As a result of these trends, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are being called upon to operate more flexibly than ever before. Furthermore, advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) might operate as part of an electricity system that looks very different than when the current NPP fleet was constructed. A-NPPs face the possibility that they will need to operate in an environment where flexibility (e.g., fast ramping) is more highly valued than stability (e.g., baseload generation for conventional demand curves). The current fleet of NPPs is struggling to remain economical in competitive markets in an era of historically low natural gas prices and renewable sources with very low marginal costs. These factors, overlaid with an ambiguous national policy related to nuclear energy and a decision-making context that struggles with multi-decade capital investments, raise key questions and present significant challenges to the economics of nuclear power in the evolving grid. Multiple factors could improve the economics of A-NPPs, including: (1) minimizing the need for active safety systems, (2) minimizing adoption of one-off reactor designs, (3) establishing policies that credit low carbon emitting technologies, and (4) integrating energy storage technologies that increase revenue and reduce costs through a combination of ancillary services, market hedging, and reduced costs via stable operation. This report focuses on Item (4), containing an overview, synthesis, and examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Combined Heat and Power in Mexico: Market Opportunity Analysis

Energy reforms in Mexico have emphasized the need for a more diversified energy portfolio to enhance energy security, decrease environmental degradation, and increase Mexico’s economic competitiveness. Starting in 2013, these reforms provide new opportunities for the cogeneration of heat and power (also called combined heat and power, or CHP) in the following ways: (1) they include efficient CHP under clean electricity generation provisions, allowing them to generate Clean Energy Certificates (CEL); and (2) they facilitate investment and competition in natural gas, the primary fuel source of CHP, expanding access to and reducing the price of gas, and increasing the competitive advantage of CHP. Considering the changing regulatory environment in Mexico, and the potential opportunities offered to suppliers of CHP technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a report to identify opportunities and challenges facing U.S. suppliers of CHP technology and services within the context of the current regulatory environment in Mexico. This report, prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge National Laboratory, also provides an overview of the current energy policy environment and the electricity market dynamics related to the CHP sector in Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Model Evaluation and Hindcasting: An Experiment with an Integrated Assessment Model

Integrated assessment models have been extensively used for analyzing long term energy and greenhouse emissions trajectories and have influenced key policies on this subject. Though admittedly these models are focused on the long term trajectories, how well these models are able to capture historical dynamics is an open question. In a first experiment of its kind, we present a framework for evaluation of such integrated assessment models. We use Global Change Assessment Model for this zero order experiment, and focus on the building sector results for USA. We calibrate the model for 1990 and run it forward up to 2095 in five year time steps. This gives us results for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 which we compare to observed historical data at both fuel level and service level. We focus on bringing out the key insights for the wider process of model evaluation through our experiment with GCAM. We begin with highlighting that creation of an evaluation dataset and identification of key evaluation metric is the foremost challenge in the evaluation process. Our analysis highlights that estimation of functional form of the relationship between energy service demand, which is an unobserved variable, and its drivers is a significant challenge in the absence of adequate historical data for both the dependent and driver variables. Historical data availability for key metrics is a serious limiting factor in the process of evaluation. Interestingly, service level data against which such models need to be evaluated are itself a result of models. Thus for energy services, the best we can do is compare our model results with other model results rather than observed and measured data. We show that long term models, by the nature of their construction, will most likely underestimate the rapid growth in some services observed in a short time span. Also, we learn that modeling saturated energy services like space heating is easier than modeling unsaturated services like space cooling and understanding that how far a service is from its saturation level is a key question which we probably don’t have an answer to. Finally and most importantly, even if long term models partially miss the short term dynamics, the long term insights provides by these models is fairly robust. We conclude by highlighting that our work is the first step in the much wider process of integrated assessment model evaluation and will hence have its own limitations. Future evaluation research work should build upon this zero order experiment for improving our modeling of human and coupled earth systems.

building energy↗