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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disturbance and diversity: Lichen species richness decreases with increasing anthropogenic disturbance

Anthropogenic disturbance is rapidly increasing through habitat degradation, development, and deforestation. Gaps remain in understanding the effects of this disturbance on diverse and ecologically important organisms such as lichens. In North America, studies have focused on epiphytic macrolichens and catastrophic disturbance, largely ignoring microlichens and less severe disturbances. The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis predicts these moderate disturbances will lead to higher species richness. Here we examine the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in the form of land management on overall lichen richness, including microlichens, and on the species richness of eight lichen functional groups. The study draws on a comprehensive data set of 872 species, in 208 one-hectare plots throughout the Southern Appalachian Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in eastern North America. A habitat quality index based on an established forestry metric was used as a proxy for anthropogenic disturbance and was quantified using a 10-part score including categories such as percent native tree canopy cover and degree of fragmentation. Linear models were used to compare habitat quality scores to overall species richness and to species richness of functional groups. Rather than following the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, all groups uniformly follow a negative linear relationship: as disturbance increases, species richness decreases. This pattern held even for widely variable functional groups such as morphotype. Effective conservation of lichen richness should prioritize the maintenance of existing older, less-disturbed stands within large, contiguously forested areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Information theory optimization of signals from small-angle scattering measurements

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) of particles in solution informs on the conformational states and assemblies of biological macromolecules (bioSAXS) outside of cryo- and solid-state conditions. In bioSAXS, the SAXS measurement under dilute conditions is resolution limited, and through an inverse Fourier transform, the measured SAXS intensities directly relate to the physical space occupied by the particles via the P (r)-distribution. Yet, this inverse transform of SAXS data has been historically cast as an ill-posed, ill-conditioned problem requiring an indirect approach. Here, we show that through the applications of matrix and information theories, the inverse transform of SAXS intensity data is a well-conditioned problem. The so-called ill-conditioning of the inverse problem is directly related to the Shannon number. By exploiting the oversampling enabled by modern detectors, a direct inverse Fourier transform of the SAXS data is possible, provided the recovered information does not exceed the Shannon number. The Shannon limit corresponds to the maximum number of significant singular values that can be recovered in a SAXS experiment, suggesting this relationship is a fundamental property of band-limited inverse integral transform problems. This correspondence reduces the complexity of the inverse problem to the Shannon limit and maximum dimension. We propose a hybrid scoring function using an information theory framework that assesses both the quality of the model-data fit as well as the quality of the recovered P (r)-distribution. The hybrid score utilizes the Akaike information criteria and Durbin-Watson statistic that considers parameter-model complexity, i.e., degrees of freedom, and the randomness of the model-data residuals. The described tests and findings extend the boundaries for bioSAXS by completing the information theory formalism initiated by Peter B. Moore to enable a quantitative measure of resolution in SAXS, robustly determine maximum dimension, and more precisely define the best parameter model appropriately representing the observed scattering data.

Rambo, Robert P. [Science and Technology Facilitie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Progress of Reactive-Mixing

This paper presents a physics-informed machine learning (ML) framework to construct reduced-order models (ROMs) for reactive-transport quantities of interest (QoIs) based on high-fidelity numerical simu-lations. QoIs include species decay, product yield, and degree of mixing. The ROMs for QoIs are applied to quantify and understand how the chemical species evolve over time. First, high-resolution datasets for constructing ROMs are generated by solving anisotropic reaction-di?usion equations using a non-negative finite element formulation for di?erent input parameters. The reactive-mixing model input parameters are: time-scale associated with flipping of velocity, spatial-scale controlling small/large vortex structures of velocity, perturbation parameter of the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion strength/contrast, and molecular diffusion. Second, random forests, F-test, and mutual information criterion are used to evaluate the importance of model inputs/features with respect to QoIs. We observed that anisotropic dispersion strength/contrast is the most important feature and time-scale associated with flipping of velocity is the least important feature. Third, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are used to construct ROMs based on the model inputs. The constructed SVR-ROMs are then used to predict scaling of QoIs. We also present estimates and inequalities on the QoIs, which inform that the species decay, mix, and produce in an exponential fashion. These inequalities also inform that a radial basis function is the most suitable kernel for the SVM/SVR models for QoIs. It is observed that R2-score for SVR-ROMs on unseen data is greater than 0.9, implying that the SVR-ROMs are able to predict the reaction-diffusion system state reasonably well. Finally, in terms of the computational cost, the proposed SVM-ROMs are O(107) times faster than running a high-fidelity finite element simulation for evaluating QoIs. This makes the proposed ML-based ROMs attractive for reactive-transport sensing and real-time monitoring applications as they are significantly faster yet reasonably accurate.

Mudunuru, Maruti K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computer-aided classification of suspicious pigmented lesions using wide-field images

Early identification of melanoma is conducted through whole-body visual examinations to detect suspicious pigmented lesions, a situation that fluctuates in accuracy depending on the experience and time of the examiner. Computer-aided diagnosis tools for skin lesions are typically trained using pre-selected single-lesion images, taken under controlled conditions, which limits their use in wide-field scenes. Here, we propose a computer-aided classifier system with such input conditions to aid in the rapid identification of suspicious pigmented lesions at the primary care level. 133 patients with a multitude of skin lesions were recruited for this study. All lesions were examined by a board-certified dermatologist and classified into “suspicious” and “non-suspicious”. A new clinical database was acquired and created by taking Wide-Field images of all major body parts with a consumer-grade camera under natural illumination condition and with a consistent source of image variability. 3–8 images were acquired per patient on different sites of the body, and a total of 1759 pigmented lesions were extracted. A machine learning classifier was optimized and build into a computer aided classification system to binary classify each lesion using a suspiciousness score. In a testing set, our computer-aided classification system achieved a sensitivity of 100% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were later confirmed by dermoscopy examination (“SPL_A”) and 83.2% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were not confirmed after examination (“SPL_B”). Sensitivity for non-suspicious lesions was 72.1%, and accuracy was 75.9%. With these results we defined a suspiciousness score that is aligned with common macro-screening (naked eye) practices. This work demonstrates that wide-field photography combined with computer-aided classification systems can distinguish suspicious from non-suspicious pigmented lesions, and might be effective to assess the severity of a suspicious pigmented lesions. We believe this approach could be useful to support skin screenings at a population-level.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset of mechanically induced thermal runaway measurement and severity level on Li-ion batteries

The deployment of Li-ion batteries covers a wide range of energy storage applications, from mobile phones, e-bikes, electric vehicles (EV) and stationary energy storage systems. However, safety issue such as thermal runaway is always one of the most important concerns to prevent Li-ion batteries from further market penetration. A standardized single-side indentation test protocol was developed to mechanically induce an internal short-circuit. The cell voltage, compressive load, indenter stroke, and temperature at the indentation point are measured in time series. The test data of each cell, along with cell parameters such as dimensions, mass, chemistry, state of charge (SOC), capacity, are integrated together to calculate a thermal runaway severity score from 0 to100. Complete data collection process including the original measured record, test method, severity score calculation scheme is presented in this article. The thermal runaway severity analysis and the more than 100 tested Li-ion battery records provide a good data source for further comparison and ranking of thermal runaway risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prenatal exposure to mixtures of persistent endocrine disrupting chemicals and postnatal body size in British girls

Endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) exposure is ubiquitous. EDC exposure during critical windows of development may interfere with the body's endocrine system, affecting growth. Previous human studies have examined one EDC at a time in relation to infant growth. By studying mixtures, the human experience can be better approximated. We investigated the association of prenatal exposure to persistent EDCs (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs)) as mixtures with postnatal body size among female offspring. We used a sub-sample of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 425), based in the United Kingdom. We quantified 52 EDCs in maternal serum collected during pregnancy. We used Bayesian kernel machine regression with a random intercept to examine the association of prenatal concentrations of EDC mixtures with longitudinal postnatal body size measures for each EDC class separately (PFAS, PCBs, and OCPs) and for all three classes combined. Weight and height measures at 0, 2, 9, and 19 months were obtained by health professionals as part of routine child health surveillance. The mixture representing all three classes combined (31 chemicals) (n = 301) was inversely associated with postnatal body size. Holding all EDCs in the 31-chemical mixture at the 75th percentile compared to the 50th percentile was associated with 0.15 lower weight-for-age z-score (95% credible interval –0.26, –0.03). Weak inverse associations were also seen for height-for-age and body mass index-for-age scores. Furthermore, these results suggest that prenatal exposure to mixtures of persistent EDCs may affect postnatal body size.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Micromovements and discomfort associated with flight mission with helmet operation tasks with different levels of cognitive workload

When performing stationary tasks under elevated cognitive workload, individuals must perform continual muscle contractions to maintain stability of the body, resulting in fatigue of the postural muscles. When the muscles perform these contractions in a prolonged manner, the body potentially responds through small changes in body movements—micromovements that may lead to discomfort. The study purpose was to evaluate impact of cognitive load on micromovements. The micromovements were measured during three different cognitive workloads; low, medium, and high. The NASA-TLX score was used to evaluate the perceived mental workload and discomfort was assessed by visual analog scale. In total, 60 subjects (30 males and 30 females) were recruited and performed cognitive tasks that simulated flight operations such as changing the radio frequency based on air traffic control messages, balancing the fuel levels in simulated fuel tanks, and aiming a reticle in a designated moving target using the cyclic control. Cognitive load was defined by the frequency of events. Micromovements were defined by changes in the center of pressure (COP) of the seat pan and COP standard deviation. It was found that the high cognitive workloads had the highest NASA-TLX scores including mental demands, temporal demands, and effort. The neck area had the highest overall levels of discomfort followed by upper back. The highest standard deviation for COP shift and number of micromovements occurred for medium cognitive workloads. In conclusion, while there were some interesting trends, few trends reached a statistical significance due to high variability among subjects for the outcome variables.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards deep computer vision for in-line defect detection in polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell materials

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cells are a promising source of alternative energy. However, their production is limited by a lack of well-established methods for quality control of their constituent materials like the membrane-electrode assembly during roll-to-roll manufacturing. One potential solution is the implementation of deep learning methods to detect unwanted defects through their detection in scanned images. Here we explore the detection of defects like scratches, pinholes, and scuffs in a sample dataset of PEM optical images using two deep learning algorithms: Patch Distribution Modeling (PaDiM) for unsupervised anomaly detection and Faster-RCNN for supervised object detection. Both methods achieve scores on performance metrics (ROC-AUC and PRO-AUC for PaDiM and AP for Faster-RCNN) that are comparable to their scores on benchmark datasets. These methods also have the potential to detect a wider range of defects compared to IR thermography and previous optical inspection methods. Overall, deep learning shows promise at detecting relevant defects of interest and has the potential to achieve real-time defect detection.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Class imbalance in out-of-distribution datasets: Improving the robustness of the TextCNN for the classification of rare cancer types

In the last decade, the widespread adoption of electronic health record documentation has created huge opportunities for information mining. Natural language processing (NLP) techniques using machine and deep learning are becoming increasingly widespread for information extraction tasks from unstructured clinical notes. Disparities in performance when deploying machine learning models in the real world have recently received considerable attention. In the clinical NLP domain, the robustness of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for classifying cancer pathology reports under natural distribution shifts remains understudied. In this research, we aim to quantify and improve the performance of the CNN for text classification on out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets resulting from the natural evolution of clinical text in pathology reports. We identified class imbalance due to different prevalence of cancer types as one of the sources of performance drop and analyzed the impact of previous methods for addressing class imbalance when deploying models in real-world domains. Our results show that our novel class-specialized ensemble technique outperforms other methods for the classification of rare cancer types in terms of macro F1 scores. We also found that traditional ensemble methods perform better in top classes, leading to higher micro F1 scores. Based on our findings, we formulate a series of recommendations for other ML practitioners on how to build robust models with extremely imbalanced datasets in biomedical NLP applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

The second phase of the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME-2) provides globally available Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasts with a daily resolution. The S2S precipitation forecasts are getting increasing attention for their potentials in providing hydrometeorological forcing information for water resources planning at an extended range. However, the forecast skills of many existing S2S forecast products will significantly decrease when the lead time increases, hindering their applicability for watershed-scale hydrologic modeling. Therefore, forecast validation and large-scale evaluation are of great importance for water resources planning and hydrological applications. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the S2S precipitation forecasts from the NMME-2 dataset over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and during the study period from 1982 to 2011. Three aspects of precipitation forecast capabilities are compared and analyzed: bias, skill scores, and the ability to predict extreme precipitation events. The Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) is used as ground truth reference. Differs from other regional forecast validation study, we further examined and analyzed the dependences of NMME-2 precipitation forecast skills according to different seasonality, geographical locations, and lead times. Results show that the forecast biases are not sensitive to lead times but are seasonally dependent of all NMME-2 models. Overestimations are found in the Western U.S. in cooler seasons while underestimations are observed in the central regions of the U.S. in warmer seasons. The forecast skill of all individual NMME-2 models generally decreases as increases of lead times. The simple model averaging (SMA) of five NMME-2 models demonstrates a higher forecast skill than any individual NMME-2 models. Spatially, the highest forecast skill scores are observed at coastal areas in the Western U.S. with an one-week lead time. As compared to the historical resampled forecasts, NMME-2 also shows better performance in predicting extreme precipitation events above 99% percentiles and below 1% percentiles with higher probability of detections and lower false alarm ratios. Finally, the obtained results suggest the great potentials of NMME-2 precipitation forecasts in assisting ensemble hydrologic forecasts at the S2S scale over the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.

Contact tip wear↗