SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reduced-order models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Control Parameter Sensitivity Study for Inverter-Based-Resource Dominated Grids: A Small Signal Stability Approach and Framework

The growing adoption of renewable energy is driving the prevalence of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within power grids. Future power grids will integrate both grid-following IBRs (GFM-IBRs) and grid-forming IBRs (GFL-IBRs) alongside synchronous generators. Therefore, it is crucial to perform stability studies that account for all components and especially control interactions related to IBRs. Extensive research has performed to study the IBR-related stability, however, the sensitivity study of IBRs' control parameters on system stability has not been adequately studied yet, especially from a systematic way. Therefore, this paper conducts a small signal stability analysis for a generic grid with multiple types of resources and develops an analytical framework for assessing the sensitivity of control parameters affecting stability margins. To achieve that, the non-autonomous reduced-order non-linear dynamic model is developed for a generic power system with multiple synchronous generator-based resources (SGBRs), GFM-IBRs, and GFL-IBRs. Based on the analytic model, a systematic framework for parametric sensitivity on systems' asymptotic stability is developed. A parameter sensitivity analysis based on eigenvalue methods is proposed. The impact of the droop controllers of GFM-IBRs, PQ-dispatch and the PLL controller of GFL-IBR on the system asymptotic stability is discussed. This sensitivity study is aiming to provide deep insights on control parameters' impact on system stability, and gives direction for parameter tuning in case of instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cavity evolution and void swelling in dual ion irradiated tempered martensitic steels

Microstructural evolutions in two variants of the F82H 8 wt%Cr tempered martensitic steel under dual (He + plus Fe 3+ ) ion irradiations at 500 °C have been characterized by transmission electron microscopy. Emphasis is on understanding the combined effects of displacements per atom (dpa) and the helium/dpa ratio (He/dpa) on cavity evolution and void swelling (f v ). The dual ion database includes 231 alloy-dpa-He/dpa conditions for irradiations up to ~ 82 dpa and 3700 appm helium. Here, we hypothesize that the large “scatter” observed in the f v data is primarily due to local microstructural variations, especially those that shield regions at shallower depths from the effects of injected interstitial atoms, which would otherwise reduce f v . More generally, our hypothesis is that the highest f v data, at a specified dpa and He/dpa, provides the most appropriate estimate of swelling for fusion neutron irradiation conditions. The dose dependence of f v can be described by an incubation dpa i , marking the onset of significant void growth, and a post-incubation swelling rate, f v ’ = Δf v /Δdpa. Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa. The f v ’ data are quantitatively consistent with a simple model for defect partitioning between evolving bubble, void, and dislocation sinks strengths and biases. Most notably, the model correctly predicts both the incubation dpa i , and the subsequent f v ’, in spite of the fact that they reflect somewhat different physics. Our analysis also suggests that defect recombination is modest at 500 °C. Along with other considerations, this supports the hypothesis that, even at high dpa rates, dual ion irradiations can be used to reasonably emulate void nucleation and growth for a range of fusion-relevant neutron irradiation service conditions. A companion paper incorporates the results of this study in a reduced-order, data-driven void swelling model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

BUQEYE guide to projection-based emulators in nuclear physics

The BUQEYE collaboration (Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors in Your effective field theory) presents a pedagogical introduction to projection-based, reduced-order emulators for applications in low-energy nuclear physics. The term emulator refers here to a fast surrogate model capable of reliably approximating high-fidelity models. As the general tools employed by these emulators are not yet well-known in the nuclear physics community, we discuss variational and Galerkin projection methods, emphasize the benefits of offline-online decompositions, and explore how these concepts lead to emulators for bound and scattering systems that enable fast and accurate calculations using many different model parameter sets. We also point to future extensions and applications of these emulators for nuclear physics, guided by the mature field of model (order) reduction. All examples discussed here and more are available as interactive, open-source Python code so that practitioners can readily adapt projection-based emulators for their own work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Space–Time Reduced Order Model for Linear Dynamical Systems in Python Using Less than 120 Lines of Code

A classical reduced order model (ROM) for dynamical problems typically involves only the spatial reduction of a given problem. Recently, a novel space–time ROM for linear dynamical problems has been developed [Choi et al., Space–tume reduced order model for large-scale linear dynamical systems with application to Boltzmann transport problems, Journal of Computational Physics, 2020], which further reduces the problem size by introducing a temporal reduction in addition to a spatial reduction without much loss in accuracy. The authors show an order of a thousand speed-up with a relative error of less than 10−5 for a large-scale Boltzmann transport problem. In this work, we present for the first time the derivation of the space–time least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection for linear dynamical systems and its corresponding block structures. Utilizing these block structures, we demonstrate the ease of construction of the space–time ROM method with two model problems: 2D diffusion and 2D convection diffusion, with and without a linear source term. For each problem, we demonstrate the entire process of generating the full order model (FOM) data, constructing the space–time ROM, and predicting the reduced-order solutions, all in less than 120 lines of Python code. We compare our LSPG method with the traditional Galerkin method and show that the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10−3) to O(10−4) relative errors for these problems. Depending on parameter–separability, online speed-ups may or may not be achieved. For the FOMs with parameter–separability, the space–time ROMs can achieve O(10) online speed-ups. Finally, we present an error analysis for the space–time LSPG projection and derive an error bound, which shows an improvement compared to traditional spatial Galerkin ROM methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rheo-Structural Spectroscopy: Fingerprinting the In Situ Response of Fluids to Arbitrary Flow Fields

The objectives of this project were to develop new sample environments, measurement methodologies and associated modeling tools for characterizing the structural response to arbitrarily complex processing flows using small angle scattering, and to apply these new tools for understanding the fundamental physics governing the structuring of anisotropic particulate and polymeric materials under flow histories and conditions relevant to industrial processing flows. The research resulted in the development and implementation of a new sample environment, the fluidic four roll mill (FFoRM), for in situ small angle neutron and X-ray scattering (SANS/SAXS) measurements. These measurements are capable of generating large data sets that “fingerprint” how a complex fluid responds to a wide range of flow histories involving time variations in deformation type and rate. New modeling tools were developed to extract detailed microstructural information from such data sets, including orientation distribution functions and interparticle correlation functions, as well as reduced-order parametric descriptors of these high-dimensional functions that can be used to readily map, visualize and interpret a fluid’s structural response to its flow history. These new tools were applied to a range of model materials involving elongated particle suspensions in order to provide new insights into the physics of how flow couples with orientational and structural order in complex flows, particularly under non-dilute conditions for which no accurate theories currently exist. Using these investigations, we elucidated a number of new insights into the fundamental phenomena driving such process-structure-property relationships. These findings provide guidance for the further development of rheological models, and ultimately can inform the rational and model-based design of flow processes to achieve optimized orientational ordering that is key to the properties and function of a wide range of energy-relevant materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning of dynamically responsive chemical Hamiltonians with semiempirical quantum mechanics

Conventional machine-learning (ML) models in computational chemistry learn to directly predict molecular properties using quantum chemistry only for reference data. While these heuristic ML methods show quantum-level accuracy with speeds several orders of magnitude faster than traditional quantum chemistry methods, they suffer from poor extensibility and transferability; i.e., their accuracy degrades on large or new chemical systems. Incorporating quantum chemistry frameworks into the ML models directly solves this problem. Here we take the structure of semiempirical quantum mechanics (SEQM) methods to construct dynamically responsive Hamiltonians. SEQM methods use empirical parameters fitted to experimental properties to construct reduced-order Hamiltonians, facilitating much faster calculations than ab initio methods but with compromised accuracy. By replacing these static parameters with machine-learned dynamic values inferred from the local environment, we greatly improve the accuracy of the SEQM methods. Trained on molecular energies and atomic forces, these dynamically generated Hamiltonian parameters show a strong correlation with atomic hybridization and bonding. Trained with only about 60,000 small organic molecular conformers, the resulting model retains interpretability, extensibility, and transferability when testing on much larger chemical systems and predicting various molecular properties. Overall, this work demonstrates the virtues of incorporating physics-based descriptions with ML to develop models that are simultaneously accurate, transferable, and interpretable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing interfacial momentum closures in two-phase bubbly flow with machine learning-aided methods

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach has already reached a high level of maturity for single-phase flows, however the development of closure models for two-phase flow requires additional attention. Multiphase CFD (M-CFD) methods resolve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy while differing in the approaches and strategies adopted in the physical closure models. The most widely adopted framework for M-CFD is the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid approach which assumes that all phases are co-existing inside each computational cell. For each fluid, the full set of conservation equations is solved; therefore, each fluid has a different velocity field. For adiabatic two-phase flow, the mechanisms of the interfacial momentum transfer are modeled by the interfacial forces representing different physical mechanisms. One of the crucial issues in the development and application of two-fluid model is the understanding of the interfacial momentum closures which determines the bubble distribution and migration behaviors. Dedicated experiments are performed to support the physical understanding and drive the closures’ development. However, limitations exist due to the uncertainties in the experimental measurement and the simplified analytical assumptions which have difficulties on representing the complex non-linear flow fields. In this paper, a data-driven approach, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM), is developed and proposed to resolve the challenges of modeling the interfacial forces closures. Case study is performed with two-phase flow scenarios where the high-fidelity experimental data is available. Within the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid framework, only momentum equations for gas and liquid phases are solved and reduced-order interfacial momentum closures are aided with FSM. Predictions of void fraction and velocity fields are analyzed and demonstrate the potential of machine learning-driven interfacial forces closures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods for Estimating Dose from Galactic Cosmic Rays and Jovian Radiation Belts on Reduced-Order Monte Carlo Geometries

This document outlines the methods and tools developed to estimate dose rates from galactic cosmic rays and the trapped radiation belts surrounding Jupiter using Monte Carlo particle transport software. Furthermore, the techniques described here are specific for translating high-resolution MAVRIC models to analogous but lower resolution Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport (MCNP) code models to estimate charged particle effects on models originally developed to study neutral particles only. This capability was initially developed to predict doses to various components of dynamic radioisotope power systems for spaceflight applications, but the tools and methods can be easily applied to other problem geometries and expanded to other space radiation environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporally-consistent koopman autoencoders for forecasting dynamical systems

Absence of sufficiently high-quality data often poses a key challenge in data-driven modeling of high-dimensional spatio-temporal dynamical systems. Koopman Autoencoders (KAEs) harness the expressivity of deep neural networks (DNNs), the dimension reduction capabilities of autoencoders, and the spectral properties of the Koopman operator to learn a reduced-order feature space with simpler, linear dynamics. However, the effectiveness of KAEs is hindered by limited and noisy training datasets, leading to poor generalizability. To address this, we introduce the Temporally-Consistent Koopman Autoencoder (tcKAE), designed to generate accurate long-term predictions even with limited and noisy training data. This is achieved through a consistency regularization term that enforces prediction coherence across different time steps, thus enhancing the robustness and generalizability of tcKAE over existing models. We provide analytical justification for this approach based on Koopman spectral theory and empirically demonstrate tcKAE’s superior performance over state-of-the-art KAE models across a variety of test cases, including simple pendulum oscillations, kinetic plasma, and fluid flow data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Co-Optimized Machine Learned Manifolds for Modeling Chemically Reacting Flows

Chemically reacting flows play a key role in a wide range of engineered systems, from chemical and polymer processing to combustion-based energy conversion technologies. Simulations of these flows involve solving a coupled set of partial differential equations for mass, momentum, energy, and all relevant chemical species in the system. Chemical reaction pathways may be extremely complex and involve hundreds or more intermediate species, with reactions that occur over timescales varying by several orders of magnitude - presenting a significant numerical stiffness challenge. The combination of these factors makes simulation of chemically reacting flows vastly more expensive than nonreactive simulations, and often makes direct solution of the governing equations intractable. It is necessary to apply lower-fidelity models in place of the detailed governing equations in order to reduce computational cost to enable reacting flow simulation tools to be used in the engineering design process. Many of the models employed for this purpose are based on reducing the dimension of the thermochemical state, motivated by the observation that the observed thermochemical states in a system lie on a low-dimensional manifold in thermochemical state space. This behavior occurs due to the fast equilibration of certain reactive and transport processes, and physics-based manifold models rely on idealized assumptions about the balance of timescales and the way in which chemistry and transport are coupled. In this work, we apply a novel method for data-driven manifold-based modeling that can leverage data from high-fidelity reacting flow simulations to improve model accuracy in cases where the physics-based modeling assumptions break down. The approach is designed to be broadly applicable across chemically reacting flow systems but is applied here to turbulent combustion modeling.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of Manifold-Based Combustion Models in a Highly Scalable Low Mach Number Reacting Flow Solver: Preprint

Manifold-based representations of the thermochemistry are often employed in conjunction with large eddy eimulation (LES) to lower the cost of combustion simulations. This work describes steps taken to implement this modeling approach in PeleLM, a scalable and performance-portable low Mach number flow solver. Most significantly, this includes adapting the projection method used by PeleLM to satisfy the mass conservation constraint for use with manifold-based models. The implementation is designed to be general across manifold-based models, including both those that employ traditional tabulation and those that employ neural networks. An initial demonstration for simple test cases is presented and will be used for performance assessment.

high-performance computing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Learning for the Mori--Zwanzig Formalism: A Generalization of the Koopman Learning Framework

A theoretical framework which unifies the conventional Mori--Zwanzig formalism and the approximate Koopman learning of deterministic dynamical systems from noiseless observation is presented. In this framework, the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, developed in statistical mechanics to tackle the hard problem of construction of reduced-order dynamics for high-dimensional dynamical systems, can be considered as a natural generalization of the Koopman description of the dynamical system. We next show that, similar to the approximate Koopman learning methods, data-driven methods can be developed for the Mori--Zwanzig formalism with Mori's linear projection operator. We have developed two algorithms to extract the key operators, the Markov and the memory kernel, using time series of a reduced set of observables in a dynamical system. We have adopted the Lorenz `96 system as a test problem and solved for the above operators. These operators exhibit complex behaviors, which are unlikely to be captured by traditional modeling approaches in Mori--Zwanzig analysis. The nontrivial generalized fluctuation-dissipation relationship, which relates the memory kernel with the two-time correlation statistics of the orthogonal dynamics, was numerically verified as a validation of the solved operators. Here we present numerical evidence that the generalized Langevin equation, a key construct in the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, is more advantageous in predicting the evolution of the reduced set of observables than the conventional approximate Koopman operators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗