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At least 379 records · Page 21

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗

Optical imaging spectroscopy

During the recent solar maximum the combination of imaging and spectroscopy in the visible part of the spectrum became a powerful tool for observational study of flares primarily because of the development of two-dimensional charge-coupled-device (CCD) arrays. In combination with appropriate new operational methods, this has led to the ability to observe, for the first time, the preflare and impulsive-phase physical processes associated with spatially resolved features of flare loops. As a result of concurrent theoretical developments, modeling progressed from an empirical to a physical level. This made it possible to interpret imaging spectra in terms of coronal pressure and heat flux, particle beam heating, chromospheric evaporation, and explosive chromospheric dynamics at the footpoints of flare loops. There is clear potential for further advances in the near future, taking advantage of improvements in digital recording speed (approx. 10-fold), number of photosensitive elements per array (approx. 10-fold), real-time data pre-reduction (potentially 10- to 100-fold), and using multiple CCD arrays. By the time of the next solar maximum imaging spectroscopy is expected to achieve spatial resolution or approx. arc 1 arc s, temporal resolution or approx. 5 s, and simultaneous critically-sampled spectroscopy of several lines and continua. As a result, continued increase in our understanding of the physical processes and configurations of solar flares in the chromosphere, temperature minimum region, and photosphere can be anticipated. Even greater progress toward a more global understanding of flares will obviously come about when simultaneous optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray imaging spectroscopy are possible.

Canfield, R. C.↗

An additional source of uncertainty and bias in digital spectral estimates near the Nyquist frequency

An additional source of bias and uncertainty in digital spectral estimates near the Nyquist frequency is discovered which is produced by the fact that the finite width main lobe of the spectral window is periodic with period of 2(omega sub c), equal to 4pi times the Nyquist frequency. For estimates near omega sub c, contributions from frequencies near -(omega sub c) are found to appear even for a sufficiently sampled bandlimited time history. In real-world applications, this source should be significant if the number of data points is small, and it should be of even more importance if the signal is not strictly bandlimited.

Hardin, J. C.↗

The width of fault zones in a brittle-viscous lithosphere: Strike-slip faults

A fault zone in an ideal brittle material overlying a very weak substrate could, in principle, consist of a single slip surface. Real fault zones have a finite width consisting of a number of nearly parallel slip surfaces on which deformation is distributed. The hypothesis that the finite width of fault zones reflects stresses due to quasistatic flow in the ductile substrate of a brittle surface layer is explored. Because of the simplicity of theory and observations, strike-slip faults are examined first, but the analysis can be extended to normal and thrust faulting.

Parmentier, E. M.↗

A volatile organic analyzer for Space Station: Description and evaluation of a gas chromatography/ ion mobility

A Volatile Organic Analyzer (VOA) is being developed as an essential component of the Space Station's Environmental Health System (EHS) air quality monitoring strategy to provide warning to the crew and ground personnel if volatile organic compounds exceed established exposure limits. The short duration of most Shuttle flights and the relative simplicity of the contaminant removal mechanism have lessened the concern about crew exposure to air contaminants on the Shuttle. However, the longer missions associated with the Space Station, the complex air revitalization system and the proposed number of experiments have led to a desire for real-time monitoring of the contaminants in the Space Station atmosphere. Achieving the performance requirements established for the VOA within the Space Station resource (e.g., power, weight) allocations led to a novel approach that joined a gas chromatograph (GC) to an ion mobility spectrometer (IMS). The authors of this paper will discuss the rational for selecting the GC/IMS technology as opposed to the more established gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) for the foundation of the VOA. The data presented from preliminary evaluations will demonstrate the versatile capability of the GC/IMS to analyze the major contaminants expected in the Space Station atmosphere. The favorable GC/IMS characteristics illustrated in this paper included excellent sensitivity, dual-mode operation for selective detection, and mobility drift times to distinguish co-eluting GC peaks. Preliminary studies have shown that the GC/IMS technology can meet surpass the performance requirements of the Space Station VOA.

Limero, Thomas F.↗

Automatic Data Distribution for CFD Applications on Structured Grids

Data distribution is an important step in implementation of any parallel algorithm. The data distribution determines data traffic, utilization of the interconnection network and affects the overall code efficiency. In recent years a number data distribution methods have been developed and used in real programs for improving data traffic. We use some of the methods for translating data dependence and affinity relations into data distribution directives. We describe an automatic data alignment and placement tool (ADAPT) which implements these methods and show it results for some CFD codes (NPB and ARC3D). Algorithms for program analysis and derivation of data distribution implemented in ADAPT are efficient three pass algorithms. Most algorithms have linear complexity with the exception of some graph algorithms having complexity O(n(sup 4)) in the worst case.

Frumkin, Michael↗

Automatic Data Distribution for CFD Applications on Structured Grids

Data distribution is an important step in implementation of any parallel algorithm. The data distribution determines data traffic, utilization of the interconnection network and affects the overall code efficiency. In recent years a number data distribution methods have been developed and used in real programs for improving data traffic. We use some of the methods for translating data dependence and affinity relations into data distribution directives. We describe an automatic data alignment and placement tool (ADAFT) which implements these methods and show it results for some CFD codes (NPB and ARC3D). Algorithms for program analysis and derivation of data distribution implemented in ADAFT are efficient three pass algorithms. Most algorithms have linear complexity with the exception of some graph algorithms having complexity O(n(sup 4)) in the worst case.

Frumkin, Michael↗

Coming of Age

One of the great perks I looked forward to when I turned sixteen was being able to give up my paper route and get a regular job. Paper routes are okay, but for a young, timid kid who was afraid to ask for money, it often proved to be a non-profit operation. At age sixteen, I could get a social security number, which meant that I could go get myself a real job. In my early days of running a division and having my own employees, I m sad to say that I emulated that behavior more than once. At the time, I rationalized it. Now, I know how wrong I was, and how I may have ruined the morale of employees who only wanted to do good work. I recognize that almost every time I didn't get what I wanted from an employee, it was because they didn't understand what I really expected from them, they didn't understand how to provide it, or there were constraints placed on them that stopped them from doing a good job. I'am sure OJ. is long dead and gone. He wasn't young when I worked for him. I think he would have been amazed to learn what a long-lasting effect his behavior that week in 1963 had on me.

Morgan, Ray↗

Immunity-Based Aircraft Fault Detection System

In the study reported in this paper, we have developed and applied an Artificial Immune System (AIS) algorithm for aircraft fault detection, as an extension to a previous work on intelligent flight control (IFC). Though the prior studies had established the benefits of IFC, one area of weakness that needed to be strengthened was the control dead band induced by commanding a failed surface. Since the IFC approach uses fault accommodation with no detection, the dead band, although it reduces over time due to learning, is present and causes degradation in handling qualities. If the failure can be identified, this dead band can be further A ed to ensure rapid fault accommodation and better handling qualities. The paper describes the application of an immunity-based approach that can detect a broad spectrum of known and unforeseen failures. The approach incorporates the knowledge of the normal operational behavior of the aircraft from sensory data, and probabilistically generates a set of pattern detectors that can detect any abnormalities (including faults) in the behavior pattern indicating unsafe in-flight operation. We developed a tool called MILD (Multi-level Immune Learning Detection) based on a real-valued negative selection algorithm that can generate a small number of specialized detectors (as signatures of known failure conditions) and a larger set of generalized detectors for unknown (or possible) fault conditions. Once the fault is detected and identified, an adaptive control system would use this detection information to stabilize the aircraft by utilizing available resources (control surfaces). We experimented with data sets collected under normal and various simulated failure conditions using a piloted motion-base simulation facility. The reported results are from a collection of test cases that reflect the performance of the proposed immunity-based fault detection algorithm.

Dasgupta, D.↗

Active Flow Control Stator With Coanda Surface

Active Flow Control increases the permissible aerodynamic loading. Curved surface near the trailing edge ("Coanda surface"): a) increases turning -> higher pressure ratio. b) controls boundary layer separation -> increased surge margin. Objective: Reduce the number of vanes or compressor stages. Constraints: 1. In a real compressor, the vane must still function entirely without blowing. 2. Maintain the flow exit angle of the reference stator despite the resulting increase in stator loading.

Guendogdu↗

Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model that does not contain AIRS profiles.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

A Formally-Verified Decision Procedure for Univariate Polynomial Computation Based on Sturm's Theorem

Sturm's Theorem is a well-known result in real algebraic geometry that provides a function that computes the number of roots of a univariate polynomial in a semiopen interval. This paper presents a formalization of this theorem in the PVS theorem prover, as well as a decision procedure that checks whether a polynomial is always positive, nonnegative, nonzero, negative, or nonpositive on any input interval. The soundness and completeness of the decision procedure is proven in PVS. The procedure and its correctness properties enable the implementation of a PVS strategy for automatically proving existential and universal univariate polynomial inequalities. Since the decision procedure is formally verified in PVS, the soundness of the strategy depends solely on the internal logic of PVS rather than on an external oracle. The procedure itself uses a combination of Sturm's Theorem, an interval bisection procedure, and the fact that a polynomial with exactly one root in a bounded interval is always nonnegative on that interval if and only if it is nonnegative at both endpoints.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗

Application of Human-Autonomy Teaming to an Advanced Ground Station for Reduced Crew Operations

Within human factors there is burgeoning interest in the "human-autonomy teaming" (HAT) concept as a way to address the challenges of interacting with complex, increasingly autonomous systems. The HAT concept comes out of an aspiration to interact with increasingly autonomous systems as a team member, rather than simply use automation as a tool. The authors, and others, have proposed core tenets for HAT that include bi-directional communication, automation and system transparency, and advanced coordination between human and automated teammates via predefined, dynamic task sequences known as "plays." It is believed that, with proper implementation, HAT should foster appropriate teamwork, thus increasing trust and reliance on the system, which in turn will reduce workload, increase situation awareness, and improve performance. To this end, HAT has been demonstrated and/or studied in multiple applications including search and rescue operations, healthcare and medicine, autonomous vehicles, photography, and aviation. The current paper presents one such effort to apply HAT. It details the design of a HAT agent, developed by Human Automation Teaming Solutions, Inc., to facilitate teamwork between the automation and the human operator of an advanced ground dispatch station. This dispatch station was developed to support a NASA project investigating a concept called Reduced Crew Operations (RCO); consequently, we have named the agent R-HATS. Part of the RCO concept involves a ground operator providing enhanced support to a large number of aircraft with a single pilot on the flight deck. When assisted by R-HATS, operators can monitor and support or manage a large number of aircraft and use plays to respond in real-time to complicated, workload-intensive events (e.g., an airport closure). A play is a plan that encapsulates goals, tasks, and a task allocation strategy appropriate for a particular situation. In the current implementation, when a play is initiated by a user, R-HATS determines what tasks need to be completed and has the ability to autonomously execute them (e.g., determining diversion options and uplinking new routes to aircraft) when it is safe and appropriate. R-HATS has been designed to both support end users and researchers in RCO and HAT. Additionally, R-HATS and its underlying architecture were developed with generalizability in mind as a modular software applicable outside of RCO/aviation domains. This paper will also discuss future further development and testing of RHATS.

automation↗

Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): A Four-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) Simulation

Within human factors there is burgeoning interest in the Human-Autonomy Teaming (HAT) concept as away to address the challenges of interacting with complex, increasingly autonomous systems. The HAT concept comes out of an aspiration to interact with increasingly autonomous automation as a team member, rather than simply use automation as a tool. The authors, and others, have proposed core tenets for HAT that include bi-directional communication, automation and system transparency, and advanced coordination between human and automated teammates via predefined, dynamic task sequences known as plays (Shively et al., 2017). It is believed that, with proper implementation, HAT should foster appropriate teamwork, thus increasing trust and reliance on the system, which in turn will reduce workload, increase situation awareness, and improve performance. To this end, HAT has been demonstrated and/or studied in multiple applications including search and rescue operations (Nourbakhsh et al., 2005), healthcare and medicine (Tsui Yanco, 2007), autonomous vehicles (Parasuraman, Barnes, Cosenzo, Mulgund, 2007), photography (Lachter, Brandt, Sadler, Shively, in press), and aviation (Shively et al., in press). The current paper presents one such effort to apply HAT. It details the design of a R-HAT Agent developed as part of a NASA Research Agreement awarded to Human-Autonomy Teaming Solutions Inc. (HATS Inc), and developed in collaboration with the Human-Autonomy Teaming Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center. The role of this Agent is to mediate interaction between the automation and the human operator of an advanced ground dispatch station, with this mediation based upon previously mentioned core tenets for HAT and the many lessons learned from the HAT research literature. This dispatch station was developed to support a NASA project investigating a concept called Reduced Crew Operations (RCO; Lachter, Brandt, Battiste, Matessa, Johnson, in press). Part of the RCO concept involves a ground operator providing enhanced support to a large number of aircraft with a single pilot on the flight deck. When assisted by the Agent, operators can monitor and support or manage a large number of aircraft and use plays to respond in real-time to complicated, workload-intensive events (e.g., an airport closure). A play is a plan that encapsulates goals, tasks, and a task allocation strategy appropriate for a particular situation. In the current implementation, when a play is initiated by a user, the Agent determines what tasks need to be done and has the ability to autonomously execute them (e.g., determining diversion options and uplinking new routes to aircraft) when it is safe and appropriate. The R-HAT Agent has been designed to both support end users and research in RCO and HAT. Additionally, the Agent and its underlying architecture were developed with generalizability in mind as a modular piece of software applicable outside of RCO aviation in domains such as those mentioned above. This paper will also discuss future further development and testing of the R-HAT Agent.

Bakowski, Deborah L.↗

Maximizing Dust Devil Follow-up Observations on Mars Using Cubesats and On-board Scheduling

Several million dust devil events occur on Mars every day. These events last, on average, about 30 minutes and range in size from meters to hundreds of meters in diameter. Designing low-cost missions that will improve our knowledge of dust devil formation and evolution, and their connection to atmospheric dynamics and the dust cycle, is fundamental to informing future crewed Mars lander missions about surface conditions. In this paper we present a mission for a constellation of low orbiting Mars cubesats, each carrying imagers with agile pointing capabilities. The goal is to maximize the number of dust devil follow-up observations through real-time, on-board scheduling. We study scenarios where cubesats are equipped with a 2.5 degree boresight angle camera that accommodates five slew positions (including nadir). We assume a concept of operations where the cubesats autonomously survey the surface of Mars and can autonomously detect dust devils from their surface imagery. When a dust devil is detected, the constellation is autonomously re-tasked through an on-board distributed scheduler to capture as many follow-on images of the event as possible, so as to study its evolution. The cubesat orbits are propagated assuming two-body dynamics and the ground tracks and camera field of view are computed assuming a spherical Mars. Realistic inter-agent communication link opportunities are computed and included in our optimization, which allow for real-time event detection information to be shared within the constellation. We compare against a powerful ``omniscient'' mission which has a priori knowledge of all dust devil activity to show the gap between predicted performance and the best possible outcome. In particular, we show that the communications are especially important for acquiring follow-up observations, and that a realistic distributed scheduling mechanism is sufficient to capture nearly all dust devil observations that are possible for a given orbit configuration.

Hook, Joshua Vander↗

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗

A study of real jet effects on the surface pressure distribution induced by a jet in a crossflow

A study of jet exit profile, exit Mach number, swirl and turbulence level on jet-induced loadings for jets exhausting from a surface into a crossflow is presented. The importance of each of these real jet characteristics is assessed using available data. Where adequate surface pressure distribution data are available, a correlation method to predict surface pressure for a jet exhausting from an infinite flat plate is used either to attempt to develop a correlation based on the real jet characteristics or to model the effects of that characteristic. Data comparisons are presented for selected cases. Also, a summary of information on surface pressure distribution data for jet exhausting from flat plates into a subsonic crossflow is presented.

Perkins, S. C., Jr.↗