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At least 379 records · Page 21

User's manual for the Langley Research Center 14- by 22- foot subsonic tunnel static data acquisition system

The Static Data Acquisition System (SDAS) components primarily responsible for acquiring data at the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel are the NEFF 620/600 Data Acquisition Unit (DAU) and the PSI 780B electronically scanned pressure (ESP) measurement system. A 9250 Modcomp computer is used to process the signal, to do all aerodynamic calculation, and to control the output of data. All of the tasks required to support a wind tunnel investigation are menu driven. The purpose of this report is to acquaint users of this system with the wide range of capabilities that exist with the available hardware and software and provide them with the proper procedures to follow when setting up or running individual tests.

Orie, Nettie M.↗

Gamma-radiation with E gamma 5 MeV detected from Seyfert galaxy 3C120 and region with 1" = 190 deg and b" = 20 deg

The observation of the Galaxy anticenter region in gamma-rays with E gamma = 5 / 100 MeV was made by gamma-telescope Natalya-1 in a balloon flight. The flight was performed at the ceiling 5.1 + or - 0.1 g/sq cm, magnetic cutoff being 17 GV. The description of the instrument and the analysis of the experiment conditions are given. The tracks of electron-positron pairs generated by gamma-quanta in the convertors were detected by wire spark chambers. The recorded events were classified manually by an operator using a graphic display into three classes: pairs, single and bad events. The arrival angle of gamma-quanta and their energy for selected gamma-ray events (pairs and singles) were determined through multiple scattering of pair components in the convertors. On the basis of the data obtained the celestial maps were made in gamma-rays for E sub gamma 5 MeV and E gamma 20 MeV energy ranges.

Damle, S. V.↗

Automation of surface observations program

At present, surface weather observing methods are still largely manual and labor intensive. Through the nationwide implementation of Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), this situation can be improved. Two ASOS capability levels are planned. The first is a basic-level system which will automatically observe the weather parameters essential for aviation operations and will operate either with or without supplemental contributions by an observer. The second is a more fully automated, stand-alone system which will observe and report the full range of weather parameters and will operate primarily in the unattended mode. Approximately 250 systems are planned by the end of the decade. When deployed, these systems will generate the standard hourly and special long-line transmitted weather observations, as well as provide continuous weather information direct to airport users. Specific ASOS configurations will vary depending upon whether the operation is unattended, minimally attended, or fully attended. The major functions of ASOS are data collection, data processing, product distribution, and system control. The program phases of development, demonstration, production system acquisition, and operational implementation are described.

Short, Steve E.↗

Advanced interactive display formats for terminal area traffic control

The basic design considerations for perspective Air Traffic Control displays are described. A software framework has been developed for manual viewing parameter setting (MVPS) in preparation for continued, ongoing developments on automated viewing parameter setting (AVPS) schemes. The MVPS system is based on indirect manipulation of the viewing parameters. Requests for changes in viewing parameter setting are entered manually by the operator by moving viewing parameter manipulation pointers on the screen. The motion of these pointers, which are an integral part of the 3-D scene, is limited to the boundaries of screen. This arrangement has been chosen, in order to preserve the correspondence between the new and the old viewing parameter setting, a feature which contributes to preventing spatial disorientation of the operator. For all viewing operations, e.g. rotation, translation and ranging, the actual change is executed automatically by the system, through gradual transitions with an exponentially damped, sinusoidal velocity profile, in this work referred to as 'slewing' motions. The slewing functions, which eliminate discontinuities in the viewing parameter changes, are designed primarily for enhancing the operator's impression that he, or she, is dealing with an actually existing physical system, rather than an abstract computer generated scene. Current, ongoing efforts deal with the development of automated viewing parameter setting schemes. These schemes employ an optimization strategy, aimed at identifying the best possible vantage point, from which the Air Traffic Control scene can be viewed, for a given traffic situation.

Grunwald, Arthur J.↗

Astrobiology Survey of a Lava Cave at Lava Beds National Monument by a Rover Carrying a Remote Sensing Instrument Payload

We report here on a survey of a lava tube cave by a rover that is instrumented for astrobiology missions. The NASA Ames testbed rover, CaveR, was deployed in Valentine Cave in Lava Beds National Monument (N. CA, USA) during August of 2018. The rover carried an instrument package consisting of Near Infrared and Visible Spectrometer System (NIRVSS) a point spectrometer operating in 1590-3400 nm range, sensitive to H2O and -OH bearing minerals, pyroxenes, and carbonates (Roush, et al 2018); the bore sighted Drill Operations Camera (DOC), a monochrome imager illuminated by LEDs at 410, 540, 640, 740, 905 and 940 nm; a Realsense ™ depth sensor system for 3D model generation; and a high resolution DSLR stereo camera. The payload was mounted on a tiltable instrument platform attached to the left side of the rover. The rover was driven manually in the cave by field operators, following instructions from a remote science operations team, and simulating a mission concept with science-guided autonomy. A simulated mission took place for 3 days with a team of 3 scientists selecting targets and interpreting data from the payload. To begin the mission, the rover drove along one wall of the cave imaging continuously with the Realsense in 20 m cave segments, three total. At the start of each day, the images from a 20m segment and a panorama stitched from them were provided to the science team to examine. The science team used these data to prioritize specific points along the cave wall for the collection of NIRVSS, DOC, and DSLR data. The objective of the data collection was to identify and study putative biological and mineralogical features in the cave. The data were delivered in xGDS, a customized mapping, planning, and data base management software developed at NASA Ames (Lee, et al 2013). Once the targets for further observations were selected, a plan for collecting the observations (positions in the cave and pointing for each requested observation) was constructed using xGDS and delivered to a rover team to execute the science data collection plan. Acquired data were delivered back to the science team for analysis. Preliminary results from the experiment illustrate the utility of the system (rover plus payload) to study the cave geology and mineralogy and its potential for identifying biomineral features.

Wong, Uland↗

Variable Sweep Transition Flight Experiment (VSTFE): Unified Stability System (USS). Description and Users' Manual

NASA initiated the Variable Sweep Transition Flight Experiment (VSTFE) to establish a boundary layer transition database for laminar flow wing design. For this experiment, full-span upper surface gloves were fitted to a variable sweep F-14 aircraft. The development of an improved laminar boundary layer stability analysis system called the Unified Stability System (USS) is documented and results of its use on the VSTFE flight data are shown. The USS consists of eight computer codes. The theoretical background of the system is described, as is the input, output, and usage hints. The USS is capable of analyzing boundary layer stability over a wide range of disturbance frequencies and orientations, making it possible to use different philosophies in calculating the growth of disturbances on sweptwings.

Rozendaal, Rodger A.↗

Between-Simulator Comparison of Motion Filter Order and Break Frequency Interaction Effects on Pilot Control Behavior

This paper investigates the interaction effects of motion filter order and break frequency on pilots' manual control behavior and control performance using two simulators. Eighteen pilots performed the experiment in the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) at NASA Ames Research Center and twenty pilots in the SIMONA Research Simulator at Delft University of Technology. The experiment used a full-factorial design with three motion filter orders (first-, second-, and third-order) and two filter break frequencies (0.5 and 2.0 rad/s), in addition to reference no-motion and full-motion conditions. Key task variables, such as the quality of the motion and visual cues and the characteristics of the sidestick, were matched across both simulators. Overall, the expected effects of filter order and break frequency variations were found, with both increasing order and increasing break frequency causing pilots to use less motion feedback in their control strategy, resulting in lower tracking performance. Furthermore, across the wide range of filter orders tested in the experiment, the existing Sinacori-Schroeder motion fidelity criterion was found to be a good predictor of the interaction effects of both filter settings on pilot control behavior. For the same motion condition, there was a consistent offset in the results between simulators, due to the more high-gain control strategy adopted by a number of the VMS pilots. Still, the observed relative trends in pilot control behavior and performance between motion conditions were equivalent in both simulators and thus accurately replicated.

manual control↗

User manual for NASA Lewis 10 by 10 foot supersonic wind tunnel

This manual describes the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Lewis Research Center and provides information for users who wish to conduct experiments in this facility. Tunnel performance operating envelopes of altitude, dynamic pressure, Reynolds number, total pressure, and total temperature as a function of test section Mach number are presented. Operating envelopes are shown for both the aerodynamic (closed) cycle and the propulsion (open) cycle. The tunnel test section Mach number range is 2.0 to 3.5. General support systems, such as air systems, hydraulic system, hydrogen system, fuel system, and Schlieren system, are described. Instrumentation and data processing and acquisition systems are also described. Pretest meeting formats and schedules are outlined. Tunnel user responsibility and personnel safety are also discussed.

Soeder, Ronald H.↗

Development of Machine Learning Algorithms to Segment and Study Images of Astromaterial Samples

Introduction: Micrometer-scale chemical analyses of chondritic meteorites and mission-returned asteroid samples can reveal details of the physical and chemical processes operating in the early solar system, including processes that gave rise to planets, moons, and minor bodies. These primitive astromaterials are comprised of chondrules, calcium- and aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI), and many other silicates, oxides, metals, sulfides, and fine-grained materials. The chemical and mineralogical complexity of these samples, vast populations of different components, and heterogeneity across mm to km scales, all limit our understanding of the origin and evolution of these materials. Here, we describe recent efforts to use machine learning techniques to automate the segmentation of chemical maps of chondritic meteorites, designed to aid studies of asteroid samples returned by spacecraft. By automating the task of segmentation it will become possible to rapidly analyze and interpret the sizes, shapes, mineralogy, chemistry, and other properties of every chondrule, calcium- and aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) and other clast within and between asteroid samples. Sample return missions significantly accelerate and heighten the need to develop such new data analysis techniques, and associated data repositories. Techniques: Neural networks require abundant training data, i.e. images which have been segmented by a human user. We have manually segmented data available from previous petrologic and chemical work at NASA Johnson Space Center and the American Museum of Natural History [1-4]. These data were derived from energy- and wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS, WDS) mapping of samples from many chondrite groups. The Deeplabv3+ [5] neural network architecture was trained on human-labeled masks and used to create machine-labeled masks. Several different algorithms were investigated, with inputs ranging from common RGB image formats through to hyperspectral datasets, with raw data comprising greyscale maps of Mg, Ca, and Al, with or without Si, Fe, Ti for both EDS and WDS data, and extending to other elements in EDS only. Each greyscale image was paired with a binary mask for each labelled particle type. Results: The trained algorithms can segment (Fig 1), classify, and measure the dimensions of thousands of particles in chemical maps of a standard 1-inch round petrographic section in seconds to minutes, rather than many hours needed by a human. Accuracy of the algorithms varied from chondrite to chondrite and across particle types. Further results and details of the algorithms will be presented at the workshop. Future directions: Machine learning has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of complex particle populations contained within primitive astromaterial, with segmentation being a critical first step. Example applications include better understanding of particle transport, nebular reservoirs, parent body accretion, and a deeper understanding of the relationships between particle populations and bulk rock elemental and isotopic compositions. In addition to benefits that machine learning can bring to individual researchers, building a community data repository of thousands to millions of particles across hundreds of samples will open up many other possibilities. For example, with a large enough dataset it will be possible to search for exceptionally closely matching particles across disparate samples. Such a capability would enable a single CAI from OSIRISREx or Hayabusa/II samples to be matched to chondritic CAIs that exhibit near-identical size, texture, and mineralogy, down to the level of similar core phenocrysts, zonation, and rim sequences. Such comparative analyses will help to disentangle precursor chemistry, chronology, gas/dust reservoirs during heating, and accretion. Such an endeavor would be impossible without machine learning and a large community data repository of astromaterial chemical/mineralogic maps.

Machine Learning↗

Application of unsupervised deep learning to image segmentation and in-situ contact angle measurements in a CO 2 -water-rock system

Rock surface wettability is a critical property that regulates multiphase flows in porous media, which can be quantified using the surface contact angle (CA). X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) provides an effective approach to in-situ measurements of surface CAs. However, the CA measurement accuracy depends significantly on the quality of CT image segmentation, which is the clustering of CT pixels into separate phases. Inspired by this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based CA measurement workflow. Motivated by the recent tremendous progress in unsupervised learning techniques and aiming to avoid expensive manual data annotations, an unsupervised DL pipeline for CT image segmentation was proposed and implemented, which includes unsupervised model training and post-processing. The unsupervised model training was driven by a novel loss function constrained with feature similarity and spatial continuity and implemented by iterative forward and backward paths; the former clustered the pixel-wise feature vectors extracted by convolution neural networks, whereas the latter updated the parameters using gradient descent. An over-segmentation strategy was adopted for model training. The post-processing steps based on agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) were implemented to further merge the over-segmented model output to the desired cluster number, which is intended to improve the efficiency of image segmentation. The developed unsupervised DL pipeline was compared with other commonly-used image segmentation methods using pixel-wise and physics-based evaluation metrics on a synthetic raw-image dataset, which had a known ground truth. The unsupervised DL pipeline showed the best performance. Next, the segmented images were input to an automatic CA measurement tool, and the results were validated by comparisons with manual measurements. The CA values from the manual and automatic measurements showed similar distributions and statistical properties. The automatic measurement demonstrated a wider spectrum because of the much larger number of measurement data points. The primary novelty of the unsupervised DL pipeline developed in this study lies in the novel loss function and the over-segmentation strategy associated with AHC post-processing. Finally, the workflow has been proven an efficient tool for pore-scale wettability characterization, which has a wide range of applications in fundamental studies of multiphase flows in natural porous media, which have critical implications to geological carbon sequestration, hydrocarbon energy recovery, and contaminant transport in groundwater.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-supervised physics-informed generative networks for phase retrieval from a single X-ray hologram

X-ray phase contrast imaging significantly improves the visualization of structures with weak or uniform absorption, broadening its applications across a wide range of scientific disciplines. Propagation-based phase contrast is particularly suitable for time- or dose-critical in vivo/in situ/operando (tomography) experiments because it requires only a single intensity measurement. However, the phase information of the wave field is lost during the measurement and must be recovered. Conventional algebraic and iterative methods often rely on specific approximations or boundary conditions that may not be met by many samples or experimental setups. In addition, they require manual tuning of reconstruction parameters by experts, making them less adaptable for complex or variable conditions. Here we present a self-learning approach for solving the inverse problem of phase retrieval in the near-field regime of Fresnel theory using a single intensity measurement (hologram). A physics-informed generative adversarial network is employed to reconstruct both the phase and absorbance of the unpropagated wave field in the sample plane from a single hologram. Unlike most state-of-the-art deep learning approaches for phase retrieval, our approach does not require paired, unpaired, or simulated training data. This significantly broadens the applicability of our approach, as acquiring or generating suitable training data remains a major challenge due to the wide variability in sample types and experimental configurations. The algorithm demonstrates robust and consistent performance across diverse imaging conditions and sample types, delivering quantitative, high-quality reconstructions for both simulated data and experimental datasets acquired at beamline P05 at PETRA III (DESY, Hamburg), operated by Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon. Furthermore, it enables the simultaneous retrieval of both phase and absorption information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Energy X-ray Diffraction Microscopy for Nuclear Forensics FY2022 Project Report

Morphological information on nuclear material has been identified using visible light and scanning electron microscopy. These identify qualitative differences in particle morphology. Three-dimensional imaging of materials through alternating scanning electron microscopy imaging and focused ion beam milling has also been used. Unfortunately, these techniques are time- and labor-intensive, with significant sample preparation required and lengthy analysis times. Further, the resulting 3D images are qualitative, require manual identification, and do not capture statistically-representative populations. High energy X-ray 3D imaging using a direct-beam or diffracted-beam (High-Energy Diffraction Microscopy) have been developed at the Advanced Photon Source and can produce quantitative information on grains (phase, location, etc.) and pores (size distribution, sphericity) in a material. These techniques require only minutes to characterize a sample volume and are non-destructive, thus suitable for a wide range of existing samples and for confirmatory analyses to be carried out using conventional microscopy techniques. In this first year of the project, all uranium oxide samples were synthesized and characterized using conventional analyses by the analytical chemistry laboratory. Conventional analysis methods included powder x-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, impurity analysis via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and infrared spectroscopy. Impurity analysis shows a drop in boron content from UO 3 to the lowest U 3 O 8 calcination temperature, but otherwise no appreciable difference in any sample. Analysis of diffraction data shows a flip of peaks from UO 3 dominated for the 600 °C calcined sample to U 3 O 8 dominated at 700 °C and 800 °C. Analysis of scanning electron microscopy images shows that with increased calcination temperature the size distribution of particles seems to increase and broaden. Both of these last findings are in line with previously published data, though this work used significantly fewer particles to simply show similar trends instead of getting truly quantitative particle analysis. Infrared analysis similarly shows ingrowth of U 3 O 8 as calcination temperature is increased, along with depression of peaks associated with UO 3 and water. Samples were prepared for analysis at the Advanced Photon Source at beamline 1-ID. It is anticipated that analysis will occur in November of 2022. AI/ML techniques to de-noise data coming out of 1-ID during the analyses was also developed during this time using previously gathered data. Preliminary results using a self-supervision technique called Noise2Selfshow good de-noising of data. Once the uranium oxide samples are analyzed, real data will be used to test the de-noising and other AI/ML techniques that may be developed in the second year of the project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High-Energy X-ray Diffraction Microscopy for Nuclear Forensics (FY23 Project Report)

Morphological information on nuclear material has been identified using visible light and scanning electron microscopy. These identify qualitative differences in particle morphology. Three-dimensional imaging of materials through alternating scanning electron microscopy imaging and focused ion beam milling has also been used. Unfortunately, these techniques are time- and labor-intensive, with significant sample preparation required and lengthy analysis times. Further, the resulting 3D images are qualitative, require manual identification, and do not capture statistically-representative populations. High energy X-ray 3D imaging using a direct-beam or diffracted-beam (High-Energy Diffraction Microscopy) have been developed at the Advanced Photon Source and can produce quantitative information on grains (phase, location, etc.) and pores (size distribution, sphericity) in a material. These techniques require only minutes to characterize a sample volume and are non-destructive, thus suitable for a wide range of existing samples and for confirmatory analyses to be carried out using conventional microscopy techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of TIMS performance subjected to simulated wind blast

The results of the performance of the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) when it is subjected to various wind conditions in the laboratory are described. Various wind conditions were simulated using a 24 inch fan or combinations of air jet streams blowing toward either or both of the blackbody surfaces. The fan was used to simulate a large volume of air flow at moderate speeds (up to 30 mph). The small diameter air jets were used to probe TIMS system response in reaction to localized wind perturbations. The maximum nozzle speed of the air jet was 60 mph. A range of wind directions and speeds were set up in the laboratory during the test. The majority of the wind tests were conducted under ambient conditions with the room temperature fluctuating no more than 2 C. The temperature of the high speed air jet was determined to be within 1 C of the room temperature. TIMS response was recorded on analog tape. Additional thermistor readouts of the blackbody temperatures and thermocouple readout of the ambient temperature were recorded manually to be compared with the housekeeping data recorded on the tape. Additional tests were conducted under conditions of elevated and cooled room temperatures. The room temperature was varied between 19.5 to 25.5 C in these tests. The calibration parameters needed for quantitative analysis of TIMS data were first plotted on a scanline-by-scanline basis. These parameters are the low and high blackbody temperature readings as recorded by the TIMS and their corresponding digitized count values. Using these values, the system transfer equations were calculated. This equation allows us to compute the flux for any video count by computing the slope and intercept of the straight line that relates the flux to the digital count. The actual video of the target (the lab floor in this case) was then compared with a simulated target. This simulated target was assumed to be a blackbody at emissivity of .95 degrees and the temperature was assumed to be at ambient temperature as recorded by the TIMS for each scanline. Using the slope and the intercept the flux corresponding to this target was converted into digital counts. The counts were observed to have a strong correlation with the actual video as recorded by the TIMS. The attached graphs describe the performance of the TIMS when compressed air is blown at each one of the blackbodies at different speeds. The effect of blowing a fan and changing the room temperature is also being analyzed. Results indicate that the TIMS system responds to variation in wind speed in real time and maintains the capability to produce accurate temperatures on a scan line basis.

Jaggi, S.↗

Analysis of Automated Fault Detection and Diagnosis Records as an Indicator of HVAC Fault Prevalence: Methodology and Preliminary Results

Faults in commercial buildings can cause energy waste and other performance problems such as reduced occupant comfort, reduced equipment longevity, and increased noise. However, it is currently unknown how commonly faults occur in different equipment types. A method has been developed to estimate the prevalence of faults in air handling units, air terminal units, and rooftop units. This method includes two types of data. The first is data from several automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) software technologies. This type of data provides a large sample that represents a wide range of building types, geographical locations, and equipment types. It includes fault diagnoses from thousands of buildings around the United States, as well as anonymized metadata describing the building and equipment characteristics. The number of fault records is in the order of 107. However, despite the size and richness of the data sample, this data contains some degree of inaccuracy, i.e., false positive and false negative findings. Therefore, the study includes a second type of data, coming from manual inspection of buildings that have had the same AFDD methods applied to them (from the commercial AFDD offerings). Since the field tests are conducted in buildings with AFDD-generated fault prevalence data, they can be combined with the larger sample size to provide insight into the potential biases or lower sensitivity of the AFDD data. Once a library of fault prevalence data is built, it will be studied to provide further insight into the drivers of fault prevalence, for example, whether prevalence is correlated with building type, geographical location (which is tied to climate and to utility rates), building size, etc. This paper describes the methods developed for this study and illustrates them with preliminary data. It discusses some of the challenges of harmonizing disparate outputs from multiple AFDD vendors, application of a unifying fault taxonomy, and fault prevalence metrics.

Ebrahimi Fakhar, Amir↗

Ground data systems resource allocation process

The Ground Data Systems Resource Allocation Process at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory provides medium- and long-range planning for the use of Deep Space Network and Mission Control and Computing Center resources in support of NASA's deep space missions and Earth-based science. Resources consist of radio antenna complexes and associated data processing and control computer networks. A semi-automated system was developed that allows operations personnel to interactively generate, edit, and revise allocation plans spanning periods of up to ten years (as opposed to only two or three weeks under the manual system) based on the relative merit of mission events. It also enhances scientific data return. A software system known as the Resource Allocation and Planning Helper (RALPH) merges the conventional methods of operations research, rule-based knowledge engineering, and advanced data base structures. RALPH employs a generic, highly modular architecture capable of solving a wide variety of scheduling and resource sequencing problems. The rule-based RALPH system has saved significant labor in resource allocation. Its successful use affirms the importance of establishing and applying event priorities based on scientific merit, and the benefit of continuity in planning provided by knowledge-based engineering. The RALPH system exhibits a strong potential for minimizing development cycles of resource and payload planning systems throughout NASA and the private sector.

Berner, Carol A.↗

Manual for a workstation-based generic flight simulation program (LaRCsim), version 1.4

LaRCsim is a set of ANSI C routines that implement a full set of equations of motion for a rigid-body aircraft in atmospheric and low-earth orbital flight, suitable for pilot-in-the-loop simulations on a workstation-class computer. All six rigid-body degrees of freedom are modeled. The modules provided include calculations of the typical aircraft rigid-body simulation variables, earth geodesy, gravity and atmospheric models, and support several data recording options. Features/limitations of the current version include English units of measure, a 1962 atmosphere model in cubic spline function lookup form, ranging from sea level to 75,000 feet, rotating oblate spheroidal earth model, with aircraft C.G. coordinates in both geocentric and geodetic axes. Angular integrations are done using quaternion state variables Vehicle X-Z symmetry is assumed.

Jackson, E. Bruce↗

Detection of atmospheric rivers with inline uncertainty quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0.1

It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the following question: given a “plausible” AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of eight researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of “plausible” AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0.1, to the MERRA-2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Niño–Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗