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DOE OSTI2025

Report to the President: Harnessing Social and Behavioral Science Insights to Enhance Policymaking and Improve the Lives of the American People

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On January 15, 2025, PCAST sent a report to the President with recommendations to harness the insights of social and behavioral science research to benefit the American public.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

PCAST: Letter to the President on Future Opportunities for Science and Technology to Impact the Nation

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On January 15, 2025, PCAST sent a letter to the President on the crucial role that science and technology plays in empowering our nation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Bird Surveys Report for Calendar Year 2016

Resource stewardship is an integral part of the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) responsibilities at the Hanford Site. Efficient conservation or management of any species or any population is supported through the availability of reliable information on the population in question. DOERL conducts ecological monitoring on the Hanford Site to collect and track this information. Ecological monitoring data provide baseline information about the plants, animals, and habitat under DOE-RL stewardship at Hanford that is required for decision-making under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The Hanford Site Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP, DOE/EIS-0222-F), which is the Environmental Impact Statement for Hanford Site activities, helps ensure that DOE-RL, its contractors, and other entities conducting activities on the Hanford Site are in compliance with NEPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Opportunities for policy historians: The evolution of the US civilian space program

The evolution of U.S. civilian space policy and the institutional framework through which that policy was implemented are discussed. Space policy principles the governed decision making between 1957 and 1962 are identified. The government/industry relations regarding space related research and development are discussed.

Logsdon, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

This report assesses the potential atmospheric impacts of a proposed fleet of high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. The purpose of the report is to assess the effects of HSCT's on atmospheric composition and climate in order to provide a scientific basis for making technical, commercial, and environmental policy decisions regarding the HSCT fleet. The work summarized here was carried out as part of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (a component of the High-Speed Research Program) as well as other NASA, U.S., and international research programs. The principal focus is on change in stratospheric ozone concentrations. The impact on climate change is also a concern. The report describes progress in understanding atmospheric processes, the current state of understanding of HSCT emissions, numerical model predictions of HSCT impacts, the principal uncertainties in atmospheric predictions, and the associated sensitivities in predicted effects of HSCT'S.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Standards Roadmapping for Mission Assurance in Commercial Spaceflight

This paper explores the application of established roadmapping approaches in standards planning and roadmap development to support mission assurance objectives. Mission assurance requires proactive planning across multiple domains including technical, schedule, cost, organizational, and policy. The intersection of these domains happens at the enterprise level, and enterprise systems engineering processes can systematically guide mission assurance activities, including development of standards roadmaps. Standards planning and development is a critical contributor to an effective mission assurance strategy, although standards are often developed and adopted reactively. Technology and standards planning is a key Enterprise Process Management activity, as identified by the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge, and technology and standards roadmaps are strategic tools used to enable that process. Technology roadmapping has proven effective in guiding enterprise architecture and concept design, and standards planning supports enterprise requirements definition and management. However, there are limited methodologies to guide such standards planning activities. The application of technology roadmapping principles to standards planning formalizes the process and establishes a repeatable framework for standards development and integration. The framework development described in this paper fills a methodological gap by adapting proven roadmapping techniques to standards planning. Through a comparison of roadmapping methodologies and a case study analysis, this approach outlines a systematic process for anticipating and planning standards needs. In the case of developing a standards integration roadmap for NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA), technology roadmapping principles were adapted to develop a roadmap framework to allow NASA and OSMA to define an agency-wide standards integration plan for commercial and industry safety and mission assurance standards. The outcome highlights key adaptations required for roadmapping in a standards context and describes the process steps to formalize a standards planning activity. The roadmapping framework adapted for standards development and integration enables more strategic, forward-looking standards planning and allows for better alignment between evolving capabilities and mission assurance requirements. Beyond its application to mission assurance, this methodology can be transferred to other domains requiring standards development, providing a systematic approach that integrates systems engineering principles into policy strategy and decision-making processes.

Enterprise Systems Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2015

Visualizing Safeguards: Software for Conceptualizing and Communicating Safeguards Data

The nuclear programs of states are complex and varied, comprising a wide range of fuel cycles and facilities. Also varied are the types and terms of states’ safeguards agreements with the IAEA, each placing different limits on the inspectorate’s access to these facilities. Such nuances make it difficult to draw policy significance from the ground-level nuclear activities of states, or to attribute ground-level outcomes to the implementation of specific policies or initiatives. While acquiring a firm understanding of these relationships is critical to evaluating and formulating effective policy, doing so requires collecting and synthesizing large bodies of information. Maintaining a comprehensive working knowledge of the facilities comprising even a single state’s nuclear program poses a challenge, yet marrying this information with relevant safeguards and verification information is more challenging still. To facilitate this task, Brookhaven National Laboratory has developed a means of capturing the development, operation, and safeguards history of all the facilities comprising a state’s nuclear program in a single graphic. The resulting visualization offers a useful reference tool to policymakers and analysts alike, providing a chronology of states’ nuclear development and an easily digestible history of verification activities across their fuel cycles.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Teams and teamwork at NASA Langley Research Center

The recent reorganization and shift to managing total quality at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has placed an increasing emphasis on teams and teamwork in accomplishing day-to-day work activities and long-term projects. The purpose of this research was to review the nature of teams and teamwork at LaRC. Models of team performance and teamwork guided the gathering of information. Current and former team members served as participants; their collective experience reflected membership in over 200 teams at LaRC. The participants responded to a survey of open-ended questions which assessed various aspects of teams and teamwork. The participants also met in a workshop to clarify and elaborate on their responses. The work accomplished by the teams ranged from high-level managerial decision making (e.g., developing plans for LaRC reorganization) to creating scientific proposals (e.g., describing spaceflight projects to be designed, sold, and built). Teams typically had nine members who remained together for six months. Member turnover was around 20 percent; this turnover was attributed to heavy loads of other work assignments and little formal recognition and reward for team membership. Team members usually shared a common and valued goal, but there was not a clear standard (except delivery of a document) for knowing when the goal was achieved. However, members viewed their teams as successful. A major factor in team success was the setting of explicit a priori rules for communication. Task interdependencies between members were not complex (e.g., sharing of meeting notes and ideas about issues), except between members of scientific teams (i.e., reliance on the expertise of others). Thus, coordination of activities usually involved scheduling and attendance of team meetings. The team leader was designated by the team's sponsor. This leader usually shared power and responsibilities with other members, such that team members established their own operating procedures for decision making. Sponsors followed a hands-off policy during team operations, but they approved and reviewed team products. Most teams, particularly high-level decision-making teams, had little or no authority to carry out their decisions. Team members had few interpersonal conflicts. They monitored each other respectfully about meeting deadlines. Feedback and backup behaviors were seen as desirable aspects of teamwork, wanted by the members, and done appropriately.

Dickinson, Terry L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Language Barriers in Organismal Biology: What Can Journals Do Better?

Synopsis In the field of organismal biology, as in much of academia, there is a strong incentive to publish in internationally recognized, highly regarded, English-language journals to promote career advancement. This expectation has created a linguistic hegemony in scientific publishing, whereby scholars for whom English is an additional language face additional barriers to achieving the same scientific recognition as scholars who speak English as a first language. Here, we surveyed the author guidelines of 230 journals in organismal biology with impact factors of 1.5 or greater for linguistically inclusive and equitable practices and policies. We looked for efforts that reflect first steps toward reducing barriers to publication for authors globally, including the presence of statements that encouraged submissions from authors of diverse nationalities and backgrounds, policies regarding manuscript rejection based on perceived inadequacies of the English language, the existence of bias-conscious reviewer practices, whether translation and editing resources or services are available, allowance for non-English abstracts, summaries, or translations, and whether journals offer license options that would permit authors (or other scholars) to translate their work and publish it elsewhere. We also directly contacted a subset of journals to verify whether the information on their author guidelines page accurately reflects their policies and the accommodations they would make. We reveal that journals and publishers have made little progress toward beginning to recognize or reduce language barriers. Counter to our predictions, journals associated with scientific societies did not appear to have more inclusive policies compared to non-society journals. Many policies lacked transparency and clarity, which can generate uncertainty, result in avoidable manuscript rejections, and necessitate additional time and effort from both prospective authors and journal editors. We highlight examples of equitable policies and summarize actions that journals can take to begin to alleviate barriers to scientific publishing.

Nolde-Lopez, B.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Energizing Government Decision-Makers with the Facts on Solar Technology, Policy, and Integration

The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies. Government officials can submit requests directly to the STAT for technical assistance. STAT then partners with experts in solar policy, regulation, finance, technology, and other areas to deliver accurate, up-to-date information to state and local decision makers. The STAT responds to requests on a wide range of issues -- including, but not limited to, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, rate design, program design, workforce and economic impacts of solar on jurisdictions, and project financing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

COSPAR Workshop Series on Refining Planetary Protection Requirements for Human Missions to Mars

COSPAR and its space agency partners are supporting a multi-year stepwise process devel-oping needed approaches to address planetary protection requirements for human missions beyond Earth orbit. The objective is to support incremental development from the current qualitative COSPAR planetary protection “Principles and Guidelines for Human Missions to Mars” to quantitative implementable planetary protection requirements for such future mis-sions. The workshops and meetings in this series have involved participants from NASA, ESA, JAXA and other national space agencies, as well as the scientific/technical community, and commercial/private enterprise stakeholders, based around three main topic areas: Microbial and Human Health Monitoring; Spacecraft Technology and Operations, and; Natural Trans-port of Contamination at Mars. This presentation provides a status update on the findings of the COSPAR Meetings on this topic to date. First, the identification and prioritization of knowledge gaps will be summarized. Next, where a knowledge gap is to be addressed by new measurements, example descriptions of measurements needed to close the knowledge gaps (and instruments necessary to make those measurements) will be discussed. Where the knowledge gaps closure is based on Agency policy decisions, the scope of the decision-making parameters and process will be described. Lastly, the presentation will consider how the findings of the study series can be integrated into current and future space agency and COSPAR activities.

J. Andy Spry↗

DOE OSTI2018

The discretionary power of the environmental assessment practitioner

Discretion is an essential and unavoidable element of most decision-making and is thus often closely related to the judgment exercised by politicians and practitioners alike. It is evident that discretionary power can be executed in different ways, leading to different results. Therefore, it also has a significant influence on the effectiveness of the environmental assessment (EA) as examined in recent environment impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environment assessment (SEA) literature. However, limited attention has been given to the practitioners' role and how they exercise their discretion, while the effectiveness and implementation of decisions has been a recurrent theme in EA literature. This article explores the connections between discretion and some of the fundamental ideas behind how EIA and SEA function in our societies. Firstly, the article develops and presents a theoretical model of discretion, allowing us to explore the phenomena of discretion from four dimensions: source, form, value and dynamics of discretion. Secondly, a review of EA literature is performed with the purpose of mapping how discretion is studied and what kind of discretion is found in the context of EA – focusing on one of the dimensions – ‘source of discretion’. The results imply that it is prevalent for practitioners to exercise rule, value and task discretion in every choice they make at each stage of the EA implementation process, which influences EA effectiveness, either positively or negatively, depending on how discretionary power is exercised and reflected in EA practitioners' practice. It draws both the management's attention to how to regulate EA policies and the practitioners' attention to how to make a difference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Centralized Analysis of Local Data, With Dollars and Lives on the Line: Lessons From The Home Radon Experience

In this chapter we elucidate four main themes. The first is that modern data analyses, including "Big Data" analyses, often rely on data from different sources, which can present challenges in constructing statistical models that can make effective use of all of the data. The second theme is that although data analysis is usually centralized, frequently the final outcome is to provide information or allow decision-making for individuals. Third, data analyses often have multiple uses by design: the outcomes of the analysis are intended to be used by more than one person or group, for more than one purpose. Finally, issues of privacy and confidentiality can cause problems in more subtle ways than are usually considered; we will illustrate this point by discussing a case in which there is substantial and effective political opposition to simply acknowledging the geographic distribution of a health hazard. A researcher analyzes some data and learns something important. What happens next? What does it take for the results to make a difference in people's lives? In this chapter we tell a story - a true story - about a statistical analysis that should have changed government policy, but didn't. The project was a research success that did not make its way into policy, and we think it provides some useful insights into the interplay between locally-collected data, statistical analysis, and individual decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Midmarket Solar Policies in the United States: A Guide for Midsized Solar Customers

The midscale market for solar photovoltaics (PV) has not experienced the same high growth rate as residential- or utility-scale market segments in the past five years when solar PV deployment increased rapidly. Midscale solar can be defined as behind-the-meter solar PV between 50 kilowatts and 2 megawatts adopted by multi-housing residential, commercial, industrial, non-profit, and other entities. A number of challenges face the midscale segment, including difficulties in contracting, mismatch between tenant lease and PV financing terms, high transaction costs relative to project sizes, and inefficiencies in matching prospective projects with capital. The changing policy landscape across U.S. states provides both opportunities and challenges to midmarket solar. Some states, such as California, are expanding system capacity limits for policies such as net metering, thus enabling a wider range of customers to benefit from excess generation. A number of states and utilities are making changes to rate design to introduce new or higher user fees for solar customers or reduced tariffs for net metering, which decrease the value of solar generation. An understanding of these policies relative to project feasibility and economics is important for prospective customers to make informed decisions to adopt solar PV. This guide complements existing solar policy resources to help potential customers navigate through the policy landscape in order to make informed decisions for their solar investment. The first part of this guide introduces the key solar policies necessary for policy-based decision-making, which involves using knowledge of a solar policy to improve project economics and efficiency. Policies that could result in policy-based decisions include interconnection standards, net metering, user fees, incentives, and third-party ownership policies. The goal of this section is to equip prospective customers and project developers with the tools necessary to understand and use solar policies in a dynamic policy environment. The second part of this guide provides a complete, state-by-state inventory of midmarket solar policies for potential customers and developers to use as reference when making policy-based decisions. Although solar policies are dynamic, the profiles provide a framework for assessing policies to build the parameters that could be used to determine feasibility and structure of a solar PV system for midmarket customers and developers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗