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At least 379 records · Page 21

Interplanetary Low-Thrust Design Using Proximal Policy Optimization

This paper aims to demonstrate a reinforcement learning technique for developing complex, decision-making policies capable of planning interplanetary transfers.Using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), a neural network agent is trained to produce a closed-loop controller capable of transfers between Earth and Mars.The agent is trained in an environment that utilizes a medium fidelity solar electric propulsion model and a real ephemeris model of the Earth and Mars. The results are compared against those generated by the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG) tool.

proximal policy optimization↗

Increasing the Uptake of Ecological Model Results in Policy Decisions to Improve Biodiversity Outcomes

Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains uncommon. We share insights from a multidisciplinary National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center working group on technical, communication, and process-related factors that facilitate or hamper uptake of model results. We emphasize that it is not simply technical model improvements, but active and iterative stakeholder involvement that can lead to more impactful outcomes. In particular, trust- and relationship-building with decision-makers are key for knowledge-based decision making. In this respect, nurturing knowledge exchange on the interpersonal (e.g., through participatory processes), and institutional level (e.g., through science-policy interfaces across scales), represent promising approaches. To this end, we offer a generalized approach for linking modeling and decision-making.

Biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships↗

Policy, Regulatory, Legal, and Permitting Case Study Subtask 3.2 – Topical Report

This report summarizes the policy, regulatory, legal, and permitting requirements to-date for the siting of a CO 2 injection and storage project in the CarbonSAFE Illinois East Sub-Basin pre-feasibility study area. Where applicable, the East Sub-Basin case study focuses on a proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) site location in West Terre Haute, Indiana. Indiana has established the legal mechanisms to obtain rights to the subsurface mineral estate with the expectation to apply to reservoir pore space for CO 2 storage in an analogous manner to storage of natural gas, which is a common practice in Indiana. There is, however, no precedent in Indiana to take liability for stored CO 2 . There are currently no Indiana State incentives for CCS, but at the Federal level, tax credits for carbon capture and storage under 26. U.S. Code § 45Q constitute the greatest incentive targeted at CCS projects. The amendment to these credits put forth in the Bipartisan Budget Act (the FUTURE Act) of 2018 substantially increases the per-ton incentive for CCS—from $22.66 per ton in tax year 2017 up to $50 per ton in tax year 2027, for CO 2 not used as an injectant (i.e. saline storage). Additional economic opportunities may exist for the provision of CO 2 for potential EOR in the Illinois Basin. Policies that may support the development of CO 2 pipelines and/or CCS projects in Indiana include: 1) Title 41 of the FAST Act (2015), which created a new governance structure, procedures, and funding authorities in order to improve and expedite Federal review and authorization of covered infrastructure projects, including pipelines, and 2) the Eminent Domain for Transportation of Carbon Dioxide by Pipeline (IC 14-39, Indiana State, 2011), which declares pipeline transportation of CO 2 exclusively to a carbon management application, including sequestration, enhanced oil recovery, and deep saline injection as a benefit to the welfare of Indiana and the people. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program Class VI rule and permit requirements address all components pertaining to CO 2 injection and monitoring for long-term storage, and outline the minimum technical criteria to protect underground sources of drinking water at, and surrounding, injection well sites. The Class VI requirements also address financial responsibility for corrective action, post-injection site care, and site closure. In addition, UIC Program public notice requirements include that the EPA issue notice of the draft permit preparation to key stakeholders, and open a public comment period of not less than 30 days. A public hearing about the permit would also be held, if specifically requested by the public. A potential Class VI CO 2 injection well permit for the East Sub-Basin case study site would be obtained through the US EPA Region 5, because the State of Indiana does not have UIC Class VI primacy. Although no CO 2 injection wells have been permitted in Indiana, the US EPA Region 5 (which covers Illinois and Indiana) and the East Sub-Basin CarbonSAFE team (via the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium [MGSC]) have Class VI permitting experience from several projects located in Illinois. Based on our experience, applying for a Class VI permit can be an intensive and iterative process requiring clear communication and numerous interactions with EPA staff. In addition to gathering and preparing the data/models and documentation necessary for a permit application’s initial submittal, the subsequent public comments, EPA response and review, and answering of any follow-up questions/requests by the EPA could significantly increase the timeframe of draft permit issuance. The US EPA offers guidance documents regarding the specific Class VI permit requirements, and shows a general permitting timeline example from the FutureGen Alliance 2.0 covering one-and-a-half years from permit submittal to issuance. However, the overall permitting process to-date has a high degree of variability, and in MGSC’s project experience we observed a more extended timeline to receive Class VI permits for each of two CO 2 injection wells.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Policies to Support Wind Power Deployment: Key Considerations and Good Practices

Policies have played an important role in scaling up wind deployment and increasing its economic viability while also supporting country-specific economic, social, and environmental development goals. Although wind power has become cost-competitive in several contexts, challenges to wind power deployment remain. Within the context of country-specific goals and challenges, policymakers are seeking

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Combining Simulation and Optimization to Derive Operating Policies for a Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Optimizing short-term decisions over a rolling horizon and/or using deterministic penalties to capture system stochasticity can lead to myopic policies that fail to consider unplanned events and their long-term adverse effects. We present a methodology that integrates an off-line optimization model with a simulation procedure to determine the profitability of different operating strategies; specifically, the latter is used to generate additional constraints for the former when failures occur according to system component operating lifetimes that (i) are subject to exogenous uncertainty, and (ii) may degrade more quickly under specific operating conditions. We use the feedback provided by the simulation model in a parametric analysis to obtain penalties that can be used in short-term operations scheduling to maximize the long-term revenues obtained by the optimization model. We apply this research to a concentrating solar power plant; our results show that the methodology can be used to choose an operating policy that balances maximizing profit while accounting for maintenance costs. Integrating the optimization model with a simulation procedure reveals that aggressive prices for cycling yield about 55% fewer startups and 30% fewer failures compared to using a more typical start-up operating strategy, and can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in repair costs over the lifetime of the plant.

concentrating solar power↗

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗

Win–Win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China

The rapid growth of energy consumption in China has led to increased emissions of air pollutants. As a response, in its 12th Five Year Plan the Chinese government proposed mitigation targets for SO2 and NOx emissions. Herein we have investigated mitigation measures taken in different sectors and their corresponding impacts on the energy system. Additionally, as non-fossil energy development has gained traction in addressing energy and environmental challenges in China, we further investigated the impact of non-fossil energy development on air pollutant emissions, and then explored interactions and co-benefits between these two types of policies. An extended Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) was used in this study, which includes an additional air pollutant emissions control module coupling multiple end-of-pipe (EOP) control technologies with energy technologies, as well as more detailed end-use sectors in China. We find that implementing EOP control technologies would reduce air pollution in the near future, but with little room left to implement these EOP technologies, other cleaner and more efficient technologies are also effective. These technologies would reduce final energy consumption, increase electricity’s share in final energy, and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy and electricity consumption. Increasing non-fossil energy usage at China’s proposed adoption rate would in turn also reduce SO2 and NOx emissions, however, the reductions from this policy alone still lag behind the targeted requirements of air pollutant reduction. Fortunately, a combination of air pollutant controls and non-fossil energy development could synergistically help realize the respective individual targets, and would result in lower costs than would addressing these issues separately.

Air pollution↗

A review of microgrid development in the United States – A decade of progress on policies, demonstrations, controls, and software tools

Microgrids have become increasingly popular in the United States. Supported by favorable federal and local policies, microgrid projects can provide greater energy stability and resilience within a project site or community. Here, we review major federal, state, and utility-level policies driving microgrid development in the United States. Representative U.S. demonstration projects are selected and their technical characteristics and non-technical features are introduced. The paper discusses trends in the technology development of microgrid systems as well as microgrid control methods and interactions within the electricity market. Software tools for microgrid design, planning, and performance analysis are illustrated with each tool's core capability. Finally, the paper summarizes the successes and lessons learned during the recent expansion of the U.S. microgrid industry that may serve as a reference for other countries developing their own microgrid industries.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic viability of multiple algal biorefining pathways and the impact of public policies

This study presents an extensive systems-level multi-pathway sustainability assessment of algae biofuel production that demonstrates the necessity of high-value co-products, examines the impact of public policy scenarios, and identifies improvements and pathway directions required for economic viability. Engineering process models for several fuel and co-product pathways were leveraged to perform high fidelity techno-economic analysis. These pathways included: baseline hydrothermal liquefaction; protein extraction followed by hydro-thermal liquefaction; fractionation into high-value chemicals with fermentation followed by hydrothermal liquefaction for fuels; and a small-scale first-of-a-kind plant coupled with a wastewater treatment facility. From these models, it was shown that hydrothermal liquefaction as a fuel-only pathway is not economically viable. Likewise, the benefits of coupling with wastewater water treatment are insignificant compared to the impact ofreduced facility size resulting in increased capital costs. These models were also used to examine public policy scenarios, uniquely presenting their impact on the breakeven cost of fuel production and sensitivity to scenario assumptions. Specifically, depreciation type was shown to be irrelevant for write offs faster than 10 years. Due to discounting, short-term subsidies were found to capture 50% of the subsidy value in 6 years with an additional24 years required for full subsidy valuation. Integration of a carbon economy was shown to decrease biofuel production costs, particularly for the protein pathway due to the co-product accounting. Finally, a metric of normalized costs was used to compare algal biorefineries to corn and cellulosic ethanol production, showing that algal systems are uniquely different due to significantly higher capital costs, though operational costs are comparable. Overall, this work demonstrates that, to reach economic viability, algal biofuel production must either utilize higher value non-fuel co-products or achieve drastic reductions in capital costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility

Climate change has the potential to affect crop prices and price volatility. However, the economic models used in prior assessments largely do not include known, automatic, stabilizing factors. Crop storage can stabilize prices and U.S. crop policy tends to provide support that moves opposite prices. We quantify effects of circa 2050 climate forcing on the inter-annual variability of U.S. Corn Belt corn and soybean yields using statistical crop models and climate scenarios from regional and global climate models. Climate change generally reduces mean yields and increases the inter-annual variability of yields in the Midwestern U.S. Using these yield impacts and an economic model with automatic market stabilizers, we find only modest increases in price volatility. Although individual producers and states are negatively affected by the yield reductions, the aggregate effect for all corn and soybean producer returns can be positive because of price increases. Moreover, agricultural policies based on price levels or revenue variation offset some of the impacts of market variation on farm income. Our results differ from other recent results and temper concerns that increasing climate instability necessarily translates to greater uncertainty about agricultural commodity uses, including as food and biofuels, in the near future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New bounding and decomposition approaches for MILP investment problems: Multi-area transmission and generation planning under policy constraints

A novel two-phase bounding and decomposition approach to compute optimal and near-optimal solutions to large-scale mixed-integer investment planning problems is proposed and it considers a large number of operating subproblems, each of which is a convex optimization. Our motivating application is the planning of power transmission and generation in which policy constraints are designed to incentivize high amounts of intermittent generation in electric power systems. The bounding phase exploits Jensen’s inequality to define a lower bound, which we extend to stochastic programs that use expected-value constraints to enforce policy objectives. The decomposition phase, in which the bounds are tightened, improves upon the standard Benders’ algorithm by accelerating the convergence of the bounds. The lower bound is tightened by using a Jensen’s inequality-based approach to introduce an auxiliary lower bound into the Benders master problem. Upper bounds for both phases are computed using a sub-sampling approach executed on a parallel computer system. Numerical results show that only the bounding phase is necessary if loose optimality gaps are acceptable. But, the decomposition phase is required to attain optimality gaps. Moreover, use of both phases performs better, in terms of convergence speed, than attempting to solve the problem using just the bounding phase or regular Benders decomposition separately.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Travel Time to Radiation Oncology Facilities in the United States and the Influence of Certificate of Need Policies

Radiation therapy often requires weeks of daily treatment making travel distance a known barrier to care. However, the full extent and variability of travel burden, defined by travel time, across the nation is poorly understood. Additionally, some states restrict radiation oncology (RO) services through Certificate of Need (CON) policies, but it is unknown how this affects travel times to care. Therefore, we aim to evaluate travel times to US RO facilities and assess the association with CON policies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Waste picker livelihoods and inclusive neoliberal municipal solid waste management policies: The case of the La Chureca garbage dump site in Managua, Nicaragua

Highlights: • Landfill modernization project in Nicaragua yields unintended consequences. • Enclosure of garbage site displaces hundreds of impoverished waste pickers. • Persistent social marginalization contributes to environmental degradation. • Sustainable development must incorporate concerns of informal waste pickers. - Abstract: The modernization (i.e. mechanization, formalization, and capital intensification) and enclosure of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems threaten waste picker livelihoods. From 2009 to 2013, a major development project, embodying traditional neoliberal policies with inclusive social policies, transformed the Managua, Nicaragua, municipal solid waste site from an open-air dump where as many as 2,000 informal waste pickers toiled to a sanitary landfill. To investigate waste pickers’ social and economic condition, including labor characteristics, household income, and poverty incidence, after the project’s completion, 146 semi-structured survey questionnaires were administered to four communities adjacent to the landfill and 45 semi-structured interviews were completed with key stakeholders. Findings indicate that hundreds of waste pickers were displaced by the project, employment benefits from the project were unevenly distributed by neighborhood, and informal waste picking endures due to persistent impoverishment, thereby contributing to continued social and economic marginalization and environmental degradation. The findings highlight the limitations of inclusive neoliberal development efforts to transform MSWM in a low-income country.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3–7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35–40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.

Ou, Shawn↗

AGU Publications Updates Authorship Policy to Foster Greater Equity and Transparency in Global Research Collaborations

AGU Publications encourages research collaborations between regions, countries, and communities. When well-resourced researchers complete research or field work in low-resourced settings while excluding local communities or researchers from the process, this can be referred to as parachute science or helicopter research. To help address concerns of parachute science and to promote greater equity and transparency in global research collaborations, AGU Publications has updated its authorship policy across its scholarly journals. The implementation of this policy follows a successful 18-month pilot at JGR: Biogeosciences. For research completed in low-resourced regions, authors are encouraged to include a disclosure statement pertaining to the ethical and scientific considerations of their research collaborations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗