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NASA NTRS2015

Fault Management Architectures and the Challenges of Providing Software Assurance

The satellite systems Fault Management (FM) is focused on safety, the preservation of assets, and maintaining the desired functionality of the system. How FM is implemented varies among missions. Common to most is system complexity due to a need to establish a multi-dimensional structure across hardware, software and operations. This structure is necessary to identify and respond to system faults, mitigate technical risks and ensure operational continuity. These architecture, implementation and software assurance efforts increase with mission complexity. Because FM is a systems engineering discipline with a distributed implementation, providing efficient and effective verification and validation (VV) is challenging. A breakout session at the 2012 NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Annual Workshop titled VV of Fault Management: Challenges and Successes exposed these issues in terms of VV for a representative set of architectures. NASA's IVV is funded by NASA's Software Assurance Research Program (SARP) in partnership with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to extend the work performed at the Workshop session. NASA IVV will extract FM architectures across the IVV portfolio and evaluate the data set for robustness, assess visibility for validation and test, and define software assurance methods that could be applied to the various architectures and designs. This work focuses efforts on FM architectures from critical and complex projects within NASA. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated VVIVV techniques provides a data set that can enable higher assurance that a satellite system will adequately detect and respond to adverse conditions. Ultimately, results from this activity will be incorporated into the NASA Fault Management Handbook providing dissemination across NASA, other agencies and the satellite community. This paper discusses the approach taken to perform the evaluations and preliminary findings from the research including identification of FM architectures, visibility observations, and methods utilized for VVIVV.

Fault Management↗

DOE OSTI2014

Astrometric performance of the Gemini multiconjugate adaptive optics system in crowded fields

The Gemini multiconjugate adaptive optics system (GeMS) is a facility instrument for the Gemini South telescope. It delivers uniform, near-diffraction-limited image quality at near-infrared wavelengths over a 2 arcmin field of view. Together with the Gemini South Adaptive Optics Imager (GSAOI), a near-infrared wide-field camera, GeMS/GSAOI's combination of high spatial resolution and a large field of view will make it a premier facility for precision astrometry. Potential astrometric science cases cover a broad range of topics including exoplanets, star formation, stellar evolution, star clusters, nearby galaxies, black holes and neutron stars, and the Galactic Centre. In this paper, we assess the astrometric performance and limitations of GeMS/GSAOI. In particular, we analyse deep, mono-epoch images, multi-epoch data and distortion calibration. In this work, we find that for single-epoch, undithered data, an astrometric error below 0.2 mas can be achieved for exposure times exceeding 1 min, provided enough stars are available to remove high-order distortions. We show however that such performance is not reproducible for multi-epoch observations, and an additional systematic error of ~0.4 mas is evidenced. This systematic multi-epoch error is the dominant error term in the GeMS/GSAOI astrometric error budget, and it is thought to be due to time-variable distortion induced by gravity flexure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Pushered single shell implosions for mix and radiation trapping studies using high-Z layers on National Ignition Facility

Pushered Single Shells (PSSs) are another approach to Inertial Confinement Fusion implosions that employ high-Z materials in the innermost capsule layer (pusher) as a means to enhance radiation trapping and lower core ignition requirements. However, adding high-Z materials can also increase losses due to mix, provide extra tamping, and make the capsule emission opaque to x-ray diagnostics. The first PSS implosions performed on the National Ignition Facility use plastic ablators with a germanium (Ge) dopant as a high-Z surrogate in the pusher to isolate the effects of high-Z mix and radiation trapping without changing tamping. Using a 2-shock laser pulse, the PSS implosions are designed and symmetrized to reach 3.7 keV core temperatures. A low concentration (2.8%) Ge dopant is added to the innermost layer, and the resulting effects on mix and x-ray opacity are observed. The method of separated reactants is used to infer information about mixing between the deuterated plastic pusher and the capsule fill gas (25% tritium) from the resulting nuclear DT reactions. Radiation transport is studied via capsule emission x-ray spectroscopy and imaging. Both nuclear and x-ray data corroborate the hypothesis that the addition of Ge strongly affects the mix region through radiation losses but has a minimal effect on the core and the warm, unmixed regions. Simulations using diffusive and turbulent mix models agree qualitatively with data, but quantitative agreement may require hybrid mix models that can model the transitional regime between turbulence and diffusion. Simulations matching the observables show increased core radiation trapping when Ge is added.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mosaic CCD method: A new technique for observing dynamics of cometary magnetospheres

On April 29, 1990, the plasma tail of Comet Austin was observed with a CCD camera on the 105-cm Schmidt telescope at the Kiso Observatory of the University of Tokyo. The area of the CCD used in this observation is only about 1 sq cm. When this CCD is used on the 105-cm Schmidt telescope at the Kiso Observatory, the area corresponds to a narrow square view of 12 ft x 12 ft. By comparison with the photograph of Comet Austin taken by Numazawa (personal communication) on the same night, we see that only a small part of the plasma tail can be photographed at one time with the CCD. However, by shifting the view on the CCD after each exposure, we succeeded in imaging the entire length of the cometary magnetosphere of 1.6 x 10(exp 6) km. This new technique is called 'the mosaic CCD method'. In order to study the dynamics of cometary plasma tails, seven frames of the comet from the head to the tail region were twice imaged with the mosaic CCD method and two sets of images were obtained. Six microstructures, including arcade structures, were identified in both the images. Sketches of the plasma tail including microstructures are included.

Saito, T.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of Kinetic Parameters by Oscillated Experiments

The availability of reliable values of the kinetic parameters (effective delayed neutron fraction {beta} and effective mean neutron generation time {Lambda}) is important for reactor kinetic analyses and for reactivity monitoring when adopting the point kinetic approach. The kinetic parameters may be obtained either by simulations (Monte Carlo or deterministic) of the system or by direct measurements. Several methods have been proposed for the direct experimental determination of the kinetic parameters, e.g. control rod drops and noise analysis approaches, e.g. In this work, the problem of the determination of kinetic parameters in subcritical systems is tackled. The system is subjected to an oscillated source and the value of the ratio {beta}/{Lambda} is related to a measurable quantity when the system response reaches an equilibrium condition. In the analysis presented, a pure frequency is considered: when analyzing more complicated source periodic behaviours, a Fourier analysis can allow to isolate the contributions of individual frequencies. The phase difference between the oscillating source and the system response is adopted as the experimental observable. The method for the interpretation of the measurements is based on the standard point kinetic model. The response of the system is obtained by localized neutron detectors and, therefore, spatial and spectral effects may also affect the results. This drawback needs some further discussion and will be considered in the future work. The phase shift between the source signal and the system response may be analytically retrieved by Laplace transforming the point kinetic equations in the presence of an oscillated source. An explicit formula relates the phase shift to the ratio {beta}/{Lambda} and to the frequency of the source. Based on this relationship, the ratio {beta}/{Lambda} can be determined. To validate the technique, the experimental data are simulated by a numerical code solving the time-dependent diffusion equations for a source-driven system. The work allows to assess the possibility of the technique and its limits of applicability. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Early Observations of the Type Ia Supernova iPTF 16abc: A Case of Interaction with Nearby, Unbound Material and/or Strong Ejecta Mixing

Early observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) provide a unique probe of their progenitor systems and explosion physics. Here we report the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) discovery of an extraordinarily young SN Ia, iPTF 16abc. By fitting a power law to our early light curve, we infer that first light for the SN, that is when the SN could have first been detected by our survey, occurred only $0.15\pm_{0.07}^{0.15}$ days before our first detection. In the $\sim$24 hr after discovery, iPTF 16abc rose by $\sim$2 mag, featuring a near-linear rise in flux for $\gtrsim$3 days. Early spectra show strong C II absorption, which disappears after $\sim$7 days. Unlike the extensivelyobserved SN Ia SN 2011fe, the $(B-V)_0$ colors of iPTF 16abc are blue and nearly constant in the days after explosion. We show that our early observations of iPTF 16abc cannot be explained by either SN shock breakout and the associated, subsequent cooling or the SN ejecta colliding with a stellar companion. Instead, we argue that the early characteristics of iPTF 16abc, including (i) the rapid, near-linear rise, (ii) the nonevolving blue colors, and (iii) the strong C II absorption, are the result of either ejecta interaction with nearby, unbound material or vigorous mixing of radioactive 56 Ni in the SN ejecta, or a combination of the two. Finally, in the next few years, dozens of very young normal SNe Ia will be discovered, and observations similar to those presented here will constrain the white dwarf explosion mechanism.

surveys↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct observation of 3D atomic packing in monatomic amorphous materials

Liquids and solids are two fundamental states of matter. Although the structure of crystalline solids has long been solved by crystallography, our understanding of the 3D atomic structure of liquids and amorphous materials remained speculative. In 1952, Frank hypothesized that icosahedral order is the prevalent atomic motif in monatomic liquids. Over the past six decades, there have been a great deal of experimental, computational and theoretical studies to understand the structure of liquids and amorphous materials. A polytetrahedral packing model was proposed to explain the 3D atomic structure of monatomic liquids and amorphous materials, in which icosahedral order is a key feature. The icosahedral order has also been found to play an important role in the structure of metallic glasses and quasicrystals. Here we advance atomic electron tomography to determine for the first time the 3D atomic positions in monatomic amorphous materials, including a Ta thin film and two Pd nanoparticles. Despite the different chemical composition and synthesis methods, we observe that pentagonal bipyramids are the most abundant atomic motifs in these amorphous materials. Contrary to the traditional understanding, the pentagonal bipyramids do not assemble full icosahedra, but are closely connected with each other to form networks that extend to medium-range scale. Our molecular dynamic simulations, coupled with experimental results, further reveal that the 3D atomic structure of monatomic liquids is similar to the experimental amorphous material. Moreover, we find that the pentagonal bipyramid networks, prevalent in monatomic liquids, rapidly grow in size and form a fraction of full icosahedra during the quench from a liquid to a metallic glass state, providing a possible new picture of structural evolution through the glass transition.

Yuan, Yakun↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Perspective for the High Lift Common Research Model Using the LAVA Framework

An in-depth assessment of the High Lift-Common Research Model (HL-CRM) aerodynamic performance is made using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology. Results presented here were produced in support of the 4th AIAA High Lift Prediction Workshop(HLPW-4), with additional simulation results and analysis used to support findings from the workshop. Mesh resolution, RANS closure models, and tunnel effects were among the sources of simulation sensitivity addressed, all in the pursuit of evaluating best-practice simulation methods for complex high-lift configurations. In general, free-air simulations using RANS yield accurate predictions of integrated loads in the pre-stall regime for the HL-CRM, while strong sensitivity to simulation method is observed near CLmax. Additionally, a study assessing changes in aerodynamic performance due to flap deflection angle indicated strong sensitivity to turbulence model closure and mesh resolution, particularly at the highest deflection setting. Several available corrections for the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model were tested and generally introduced more error relative to the experiment in comparison to the baseline SA closure model. The Standard Menter Baseline Two-Equation (k-ωBSL) turbulence model was also explored, which arguably yielded results highly consistent with experiment, but at a substantially higher computational cost. Therefore, as a compromise between computational cost and accuracy, the baseline SA closure model was selected for additional HL-CRM studies that assess alternative solution methods. These strategies include “warm start” approaches, which initialize the simulation from a previously converged solution at a nearby angle of attack, unsteady calculations, and simulations that model the experimental wind tunnel. Results from these studies would reinforce the shortcomings of RANS in predicting aircraft performance at high-lift conditions, namely at high-αand highly loaded flap conditions, while also answering questions about appropriate modeling techniques to minimize the errors associated with RANS where possible

TTT↗

DOE OSTI2022

$O(N)$ ab initio calculation scheme for large-scale moiré structures

Here we present a two-step method specifically tailored for band structure calculation of the small-angle moiré-pattern materials which contain tens of thousands of atoms in a unit cell. In the first step, the self-consistent field calculation for the ground state is performed with the O(N) Krylov subspace method implemented in openmx. Second, the crystal momentum-dependent Bloch Hamiltonian and overlap matrix are constructed from the results obtained in the first step and only a small number of eigenvalues near the Fermi energy are solved with shift-invert and Lanczos techniques. By systematically tuning two key parameters, the cutoff radius for electron hopping interaction and the dimension of the Krylov subspace, we obtained the band structures for both rigid and corrugated twisted bilayer graphene structures down to the first magic angle (θ = 1.08°) with high enough accuracy at affordable costs. The band structures are in good agreement with those from tight-binding models, continuum models, plane-wave pseudopotential based ab initio calculations, and experimental observations. This method is also shown to be efficient in twisted double-bilayer graphene and bilayer WSe 2 . We think this two-step method can play a crucial role in other twisted two-dimensional materials, especially those with much more complex band structure and where the effective model is hard to construct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

The local crystallization in nanoscale diamond-like carbon films during annealing

The local crystallization during annealing at 600 °C in nanoscale diamond-like carbon coatings films grown by pulsed vacuum-arc deposition method was observed using modern techniques of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. The crystallites formed by annealing have a face-centred cubic crystal structure and grow in the direction [01{sup ¯}1{sup ¯}] as a normal to the film surface. The number and size of the crystallites depend on the initial values of the intrinsic stresses before annealing, which in turn depend on the conditions of film growth. The sizes of crystallites are 10 nm for films with initial compressive stresses of 3 GPa and 17 nm for films with initial compressive stresses of 12 GPa. Areas of local crystallization arising during annealing have a structure different from the graphite. Additionally, the investigation results of the structure of nanoscale diamond-like carbon coatings films using Raman spectroscopy method are presented, which are consistent with the transmission electron microscopy research results.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2016

Observation of yttrium oxide nanoparticles in cabbage (Brassica oleracea) through dual energy K-edge subtraction imaging

Background: The potential transfer of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) from plants into the food chain has raised widespread concerns. In order to investigate the effects of ENPs on plants, young cabbage plants (Brassica oleracea) were exposed to a hydroponic system containing yttrium oxide (yttria) ENPs. The objective of this study was to reveal the impacts of NPs on plants by using K-edge subtraction imaging technique. Results: Using synchrotron dual-e nergy X-ray micro-tomography with K-edge subtraction technique, we studied the uptake, accumulation, distribution and concentration mapping of yttria ENPs in cabbage plants. It was found that yttria ENPs were uptaken by the cabbage roots but did not effectively transferred and mobilized through the cabbage stem and leaves. This could be due to the accumulation of yttria ENPs blocked at primary-lateral-root junction. Instead, non-yttria minerals were found in the xylem vessels of roots and stem. Conclusions: Synchrotron dual-energy X-ray micro-tomography is an effective method to observe yttria NPs inside the cabbage plants in both whole body and microscale level. Furthermore, the blockage of a plant's roots by nanoparticles is likely the first and potentially fatal environmental effect of such type of nanoparticles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Design for the First Narrowband Filter for the Dark Energy Camera: Optimizing the LAGER Survey for z ∼ 7 Galaxies

We present the design for the first narrowband filter, NB964, for the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), which is operated on the 4-m Blanco Telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. The NB964 filter profile is essentially defined by maximizing the power of searching for Lyman-alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs) in the epoch of reionization, with the consideration of the night sky background in the near-infrared and the DECam quantum efficiency. The NB964 filter was manufactured by Materion in 2015. It has a central wavelength of 964.2 nm and a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 9.2 nm. An NB964 survey named Lyman Alpha Galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization (LAGER) has been ongoing since December 2015. Here, we report results of lab tests, on-site tests, and observations with the NB964 filter. The excellent performances of this filter ensure that the LAGER project is able to detect LAEs at z ~ 7 with a high efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

GROWTH on S190510g: DECam Observation Planning and Follow-up of a Distant Binary Neutron Star Merger Candidate

The first two months of the third Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing run (2019 April-May) showed that distant gravitational-wave (GW) events can now be readily detected. Three candidate mergers containing neutron stars (NS) were reported in a span of 15 days, all likely located more than 100 Mpc away. However, distant events such as the three new NS mergers are likely to be coarsely localized, which highlights the importance of facilities and scheduling systems that enable deep observations over hundreds to thousands of square degrees to detect the electromagnetic counterparts. On 2019 May 10 02:59:39.292 UT the GW candidate S190510g was discovered and initially classified as a binary neutron star (BNS) merger with 98% probability. The GW event was localized within an area of 3462 deg 2 , later refined to 1166 deg 2 (90%) at a distance of 227 ± 92 Mpc. We triggered Target-of-Opportunity observations with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), a wide-field optical imager mounted at the prime focus of the 4 m Blanco Telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. This Letter describes our DECam observations and our real-time analysis results, focusing in particular on the design and implementation of the observing strategy. Within 24 hr of the merger time, we observed 65% of the total enclosed probability of the final skymap with an observing efficiency of 94%. Here, we identified and publicly announced 13 candidate counterparts. S190510g was reclassified 1.7 days after the merger, after our observations were completed, with a "BNS merger" probability reduced from 98% to 42% in favor of a "terrestrial classification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Concurrent Monte Carlo transport and fluence optimization with fluence adjusting scalable transport Monte Carlo

Purpose: The future of radiation therapy will require advanced inverse planning solutions to support single-arc, multiple-arc, and “4π” delivery modes, which present unique challenges in finding an optimal treatment plan over a vast search space, while still preserving dosimetric accuracy. The successful clinical implementation of such methods would benefit from Monte Carlo (MC) based dose calculation methods, which can offer improvements in dosimetric accuracy when compared to deterministic methods. The standard method for MC based treatment planning optimization leverages the accuracy of the MC dose calculation and efficiency of well-developed optimization methods, by precalculating the fluence to dose relationship within a patient with MC methods and subsequently optimizing the fluence weights. However, the sequential nature of this implementation is computationally time consuming and memory intensive. Methods to reduce the overhead of the MC precalculation have been explored in the past, demonstrating promising reductions of computational time overhead, but with limited impact on the memory overhead due to the sequential nature of the dose calculation and fluence optimization. The authors propose an entirely new form of “concurrent” Monte Carlo treat plan optimization: a platform which optimizes the fluence during the dose calculation, reduces wasted computation time being spent on beamlets that weakly contribute to the final dose distribution, and requires only a low memory footprint to function. In this initial investigation, the authors explore the key theoretical and practical considerations of optimizing fluence in such a manner. Methods: The authors present a novel derivation and implementation of a gradient descent algorithm that allows for optimization during MC particle transport, based on highly stochastic information generated through particle transport of very few histories. A gradient rescaling and renormalization algorithm, and the concept of momentum from stochastic gradient descent were used to address obstacles unique to performing gradient descent fluence optimization during MC particle transport. The authors have applied their method to two simple geometrical phantoms, and one clinical patient geometry to examine the capability of this platform to generate conformal plans as well as assess its computational scaling and efficiency, respectively. Results: The authors obtain a reduction of at least 50% in total histories transported in their investigation compared to a theoretical unweighted beamlet calculation and subsequent fluence optimization method, and observe a roughly fixed optimization time overhead consisting of ∼10% of the total computation time in all cases. Finally, the authors demonstrate a negligible increase in memory overhead of ∼7–8 MB to allow for optimization of a clinical patient geometry surrounded by 36 beams using their platform. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a fluence optimization approach, which could significantly improve the development of next generation radiation therapy solutions while incurring minimal additional computational overhead.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory: Realtime Image Subtraction Pipeline

A fast-turnaround pipeline for realtime data reduction plays an essential role in discovering and permitting followup observations to young supernovae and fast-evolving transients in modern time-domain surveys. In this paper, we present the realtime image subtraction pipeline in the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory. By using highperformance computing, efficient databases, and machine-learning algorithms, this pipeline manages to reliably deliver transient candidates within 10 minutes of images being taken. Our experience in using high-performance computing resources to process big data in astronomy serves as a trailblazer to dealing with data from large-scale time-domain facilities in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Charge order–superfluidity transition in a two-dimensional system of hard-core bosons and emerging domain structures

We have used high-performance parallel computations by NVIDIA graphics cards applying the method of nonlinear conjugate gradients and Monte Carlo method to observe directly the developing ground state configuration of a two-dimensional hard-core boson system with decrease in temperature, and its evolution with deviation from a half-filling. This has allowed us to explore unconventional features of a charge order—superfluidity phase transition, specifically, formation of an irregular domain structure, emergence of a filamentary superfluid structure that condenses within of the charge-ordered phase domain antiphase boundaries, and formation and evolution of various topological structures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing circular polarization and magnetic field structure in active galactic nuclei

The composition and magnetic field morphology of relativistic jets can be studied using circular polarization (CP) measurement. Recent three-dimensional relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (3D RMHD) simulations coupled with radiative transfer (RT) calculations make strong predictions about the level (and morphology) of the jet’s CP emission. These simulations show that the sign of CP and the electric vector position angle (EVPA) are both sensitive to the jet’s magnetic field morphology within the radio core. We probe this theory by exploring whether the jet’s radio core EVPA orientation is consistent with the observed sign of the core CP in deep full-track polarimetric observations. Based on a selection of sources from earlier MOJAVE observations, we aim to probe the nature of linear polarization (LP) and CP in the innermost regions of jets from a small sample of nine blazars. This sample includes sources that have exhibited: (i) positive CP; (ii) negative CP; or (iii) positive and negative CP simultaneously in the radio core region. By coupling deep polarimetric observations of a carefully selected sample of blazars with state-of-the-art RMHD and RT calculations, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the physics of blazar jets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗