Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Nuclear data uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear recoil response of liquid xenon and its impact on solar 8B neutrino and dark matter searches

Knowledge of the ionization and scintillation responses of liquid xenon (LXe) to nuclear recoils is crucial for LXe-based dark matter experiments. Current calibrations carry large uncertainties in the low-energy region below ∼3 keV nr where signals from dark matter particles of <10 GeV/c 2 masses are expected. The coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CE ν NS) by solar 8 B neutrinos also results in a continuum of nuclear recoil events below 3.0 keV nr (99% of events), which further complicates low-mass dark matter searches in LXe experiments. In this paper, we describe a method to quantify the uncertainties of low-energy LXe responses using published calibration data, followed by case studies to evaluate the impact of yield uncertainties on 8 B searches and low-mass dark matter sensitivity in a typical ton-scale LXe experiment. We conclude that naively omitting yield uncertainties leads to overly optimistic limits by factor ∼2 for a 6 GeV WIMP mass. Future nuclear recoil light yield calibrations could allow experiments to recover this sensitivity and also improve the accuracy of solar 8 B flux measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical uncertainty quantification for heavy-ion fusion

Despite recent advances and focus on rigorous uncertainty quantification for microscopic models of quantum many-body systems, the uncertainty on the dynamics of those systems has been underexplored. To address this, we have used time-dependent Hartree-Fock to examine the model uncertainty for a collection of low-energy, heavy-ion fusion reactions. Fusion reactions at near-barrier energies represent a rich test-bed for the dynamics of quantum many-body systems owing to the complex interplay of collective excitation, transfer, and static effects that determine the fusion probability of a given system. The model uncertainty is sizable for many of the systems studied and the primary contribution arises from static properties that are ill-constrained, such as the neutron radius of neutron-rich nuclei. Furthermore, these large uncertainties motivate the use of information from reactions to better constrain existing models and to infer static properties from reaction data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SMR safety through HTTF modeling and benchmark efforts for code validation for gas-cooled reactor applications

Accurate modeling and simulation tools for thermal-hydraulics calculations are a key element needed to design and license new advanced reactors including Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Microreactors. Uncertainties in modeling and simulation can have significant safety and economic implications. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled prismatic-block nuclear reactors. High-quality measurement data is available from the HTTF that is suitable for a thermal-hydraulics code validation benchmark for gas-cooled reactor simulations. Here, this paper summarizes individual HTTF modeling efforts to date for tool validation at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oregon State University (OSU) and Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) using system thermal-hydraulics codes, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes and system-CFD code couplings. Also, the paper introduces the ongoing OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) High Temperature Gas Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics (HTGR T/H) benchmark that allows for better comparisons of results between different international modeling teams. The benchmark provides well defined computational problems that include code-to-code comparisons and comparisons to measured data. These problems provide an avenue for quantifying accuracy and identifying sources of uncertainty in thermal-hydraulics calculations, including in measured thermophysical properties, as part of validation for gas-cooled reactor simulation tools.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
NASA NTRS1993

HZE reactions and data-base development

The primary cosmic rays are dispersed over a large range of linear energy transfer (LET) values and their distribution over LET is a determinant of biological response. This LET distribution is modified by radiation shielding thickness and shield material composition. The current uncertainties in nuclear cross sections will not allow the composition of the shield material to be distinguished in order to minimize biological risk. An overview of the development of quantum mechanical models of heavy ion reactions will be given and computational results compared with experiments. A second approach is the development of phenomenological models from semi-classical considerations. These models provide the current data base in high charge and energy (HZE) shielding studies. They will be compared with available experimental data. The background material for this lecture will be available as a review document of over 30 years of research at Langley but will include new results obtained over the last year.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Data Sources for Improved Safeguards and Accountancy of Electrochemical Fuel Reprocessing Systems. Final Report

Electrochemical reprocessing (also commonly known as “pyroprocessing”) of used nuclear fuel is an alternative to aqueous reprocessing that confers a number of advantages, including the ability to process more recently-discharged fuel, smaller resultant waste volumes, and the lack of isolation of plutonium in the product stream. While electrochemical reprocessing systems have seen a significant research and development effort, nuclear safeguards and security of these systems remains under-developed, particularly given the significant differences in operating environment and process flowsheet compared with established aqueous methods. Objective 4 of DOE’s nuclear energy research and development activities in Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap is: “Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.” Material Control & Accountancy (MC&A) programs at nuclear processing plants deter and detect theft and diversion of nuclear material by both outside and inside adversaries. Empirical modeling and data analytics of online measurements and state indicators can improve the timeliness of detection and reduce the uncertainty in accountancy measures. To support the development and demonstration of such methods, data are needed that capture expected measurement values collected throughout electrochemical reprocessing facilities. A review of the available literature of current research in measurements for electrochemical reprocessing systems identified twenty-two candidate measurement methodologies, which characterize fuel/salt composition, concentrations of various isotopes and elements, and operational parameters throughout the reprocessing facility. Four primary measurement methodologies have been simulated based on either physical simulations or empirical correlations: gamma emissions, neutron emissions, hybrid k-edge densitometry (HKED), and cyclic voltammetry. Initial investigation into the use of these measures for process monitoring and detection suggests the approach is viable and worthy of further investigation. This report summarizes efforts to generate signatures of key measurements during operation of electrochemical reprocessing facilities and initial investigation of data analytics to support process monitoring, diversion detection, and accountancy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved plutonium and americium photon branching ratios from microcalorimeter gamma spectroscopy

Photon branching ratios are critical input data for activities such as nuclear materials protection and accounting because they allow material compositions to be extracted from measurements of gamma-ray intensities. Uncertainties in these branching ratios are often a limiting source of uncertainty in composition determination. Here, we use high statistics, high resolution - (60–70 eV full-width-at-half-maximum at 100 keV) gamma-ray spectra acquired using microcalorimeter sensors to substantially reduce the uncertainties for 11 plutonium ( 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 241 Pu) and 241 Am branching ratios important for material control and accountability and nuclear forensics in the energy range of 125 keV to 208 keV. Lastly, we show a reduction in uncertainty of over a factor of three for one branching ratio and a factor of 2–3 for four branching ratios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty analysis for VERA problem 2 using the cell-code Condor v2.8.05

Condor is a cell-level neutronic calculation code that applies multi-group collision probabilities with heterogeneous response coupling method within generic geometry configurations. Under the Condor's code continuous development, the incorporation of up-to-date methodologies and state-of-the-art practices in reactor analysis represents a driving force. In this work, the capabilities of Condor v2.8.05 to develop an uncertainty analysis for realistic PWR-kind fuel assemblies are studied. The Total Monte Carlo approach is applied to quantify the impact of fabrication tolerances in the code's results for reactivity and power distributions, by means of randomly sampled input values using the VERA problem 2 as basis. The VERA problem 2 proposes a series of Westinghouse 2D 17 x 17-type fuel lattices, to be calculated reflected at beginning-of-life without Xe. The configurations correspond to a modern PWR. Selected neutronic parameters from Condor runs are thus analyzed in terms of the observed spread as well as the obtained distributions for the randomly perturbed cases, showing the capability of the code to handle the required input data, as well as its ability to provide valuable insights regarding uncertainty quantification.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Dependent Fission Product Yields

Since 2011, the LLNL-LANL-TUNL collaboration has undertaken experimental measurements of the energy evolution of the chain fission product yields (FPY) from neutron-induced fission of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu using quasi-monoenergetic neutrons produced at the TUNL 10 MV Van de Graaff accelerator. Our method relies on direct, post-irradiation γ-ray spectroscopy of γ-rays emitted by fission products in actinide targets, with multiple γ-ray spectra taken continuously for a period from a half-hour to three months from the end of irradiation. The main experimental results of this study have been published for eight incident neutron energies of En = 0.58, 1.37, 2.37, 3.6, 4.6, 5.5, 8.9 and 14.8 MeV [1–4]. For each incident energy, approximately 16 cumulative FPYs were determined, nearly all being high-yield fission products, i.e., those occurring in the peaks of the mass distributions. As will be described in this report, our FPY analysis has been significantly improved in every step of the process, reducing the overall systematic uncertainties compared to previously published data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

EUCLID Experiment: Design, Execution, and Early Results [Slides]

This presentation covers design, execution, and early results for the EUCLID experiment. Unresolved compensating errors for Pu-239 and the Joint uncertainty problems are discussed. Various tools and design implementations are discussed along with upcoming work. Additional slides compare EUCLID calculations to experiment for several nuclear data libraries. ENDF/B-VIII.1β2 is named e81b2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of detection rate changes and correlations on random-coincidence background measurements

Coincidence detection of multiple particles emitted during an experiment can yield a new depth of understanding of the underlying process under study. However, the probability of detecting particles that are generated from the same physical event within a given coincidence time window is generally much lower than that of detecting particles that appear in the same coincidence time window, but were not created from the same physical event, and are therefore detected randomly in coincidence with each other. Thus, accurate and precise methods of measuring this random-coincidence background are essential for a wide variety of fields of science. A method to determine this background directly using the data themselves without any additional experimental run time or fake signals introduced in the data was recently established (O’Donnell, 2016). This method yields a statistical uncertainty on the random-coincidence background that is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the true coincidence data, though the potential for systematic errors of backgrounds from this method was never explored. In this work, we discuss common varieties of correlated and uncorrelated changes in the detection rates of each particle detected in an experiment. Here we demonstrate here that a correlation between particle detection rates from, for example, an incident particle beam that initiates a physical process of interest, creates systematic errors in the random-coincidence background measurement. We also discuss the impact of a variety of other realistic scenarios for rate changes in experiments. Lastly, a method is introduced to correct for errors in the random-coincidence background from any source, yielding an optimization between statistical precision and eliminating potential lingering systematic errors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summer 2025 SULI: Nucleus ID, TinyTPC, and Scientific Communication

This paper summarizes my work during the Summer 2025 SULI internship, which focused on two main projects and broader scientific development. The first project involved improving the particle identification (PID) of protons, deuterons, and tritons using PIDA distributions and template fitting, with the goal of modeling nuclear final-state interactions (FSI) and testing the robustness of the method against systematic uncertainties. These techniques pave the way for future application to LArTPC data from the ICARUS detector. The second project centered on the optimization and data-taking of the TinyTPC detector, a compact LArTPC used for high-resolution low-energy measurements. I adjusted gain and threshold parameters, performed hardware validation tests, and developed analysis strategies to extract meaningful physics from collected data. Throughout the summer, I also enhanced my scientific communication and mentorship skills through presentations, collaborative analysis, and peer guidance.

McCright, Hannah [Maryland U.]↗
NASA NTRS2017

Relativistic Three-Dimensional Lippmann-Schwinger Cross Sections for Space Radiation Applications

Radiation transport codes require accurate nuclear cross sections to compute particle fluences inside shielding materials. The Tripathi semi-empirical reaction cross section, which includes over 60 parameters tuned to nucleon-nucleus (NA) and nucleus-nucleus (AA) data, has been used in many of the world’s best-known transport codes. Although this parameterization fits well to reaction cross section data, the predictive capability of any parameterization is questionable when it is used beyond the range of the data to which it was tuned. Using uncertainty analysis, it is shown that a relativistic Three- Dimensional Lippmann-Schwinger (LS3D) equation model based on Multiple Scatter- ing Theory (MST) that uses 5 parameterizations—3 fundamental parameterizations to nucleon-nucleon (NN) data and 2 nuclear charge density parameterizations—predicts NA and AA reaction cross sections as well as the Tripathi cross section parameterization for reactions in which the kinetic energy of the projectile in the laboratory frame (TLab) is greater than 220 MeV/n. The relativistic LS3D model has the additional advantage of being able to predict highly accurate total and elastic cross sections. Consequently, it is recommended that the relativistic LS3D model be used for space radiation applications in which TLab > 220 MeV/n.

C M Werneth↗
DOE OSTI2026

Determination of nuclear PDFs using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Global QCD analyses of nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) have traditionally relied on the Hessian method for uncertainty estimation. However, the inherent Gaussian approximation and reliance on local curvature often prove insufficient for nPDF fits, which are frequently characterized by limited data constraints and non-Gaussian likelihoods. In this paper, we present the first nPDF determination based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, implemented within the nCTEQ framework using an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The MCMC approach enables a direct mapping of the posterior distribution and reveals a highly nontrivial parameter-space structure, including multiple modes and pronounced non-Gaussian behavior, particularly for the valence PDFs. We perform the first single-nucleus global analysis of lead PDFs using exclusively lead data and compare it to a multi-nuclei fit employing a standard analytic A dependence. The inclusion of lighter nuclei reduces quark uncertainties and modifies the shape of the lead PDFs, while leaving the gluon distribution largely unaffected. A complementary Hessian analysis exposes systematic limitations of the Gaussian approximation. Our results demonstrate that MCMC methods provide a more reliable framework for uncertainty quantification in nPDF determinations.

Derakhshanian, N. [Institute of Nuclear Physics Po↗