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DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A model for oblique impacts on material surfaces

Many practical situations of material damage, wear, and erosion involve collisions between small particles and surfaces at inclined angles. While there are many well-validated models of normal incidence impact situations, elastic-plastic models for oblique incidence impact events are lacking. Here the finite element method is used to predict the normal and tangential coefficient of restitution in oblique impacts for hard, elastic spheres impacting an elastic-perfectly plastic material surface. The proposed model covers various impact angles ranging from 0° to 45°, within a limiting impact velocity below which the effects of heating are negligible. The normal coefficient of restitution follows power-laws with respect to normalized values of the impact velocity. Interestingly, the tangential coefficient of restitution follows a linear relationship with impact velocity. Together, these results provide a semi-empirical set of equations predicting oblique impact rebounds (both velocity and trajectory) for a wide range of conditions and material properties, with which experimental results can be rapidly interpreted. As a result, Laser-Induced Particle Impact Test (LIPIT) data are also presented for aluminum particles impacting aluminum substrates, at impact angles of 25° and 40°; the results compare favorably with the model and validate the general use of such models for the analysis of experimental data.

Coefficient of restitution↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plate motion in sheared granular fault system

Plate motion near the fault gouge layer, and the elastic interplay between the gouge layer and the plate under stick-slip conditions, is key to understanding the dynamics of sheared granular fault systems. Here, a two-dimensional implementation of the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which merges the finite element method (FEM) and the discrete element method (DEM), is used to explicitly simulate a sheared granular gouge fault system. In this work we focus on investigating the influence of normal load, driving shear velocity and plate stiffness on the velocities and displacements in the direction parallel to the shear direction (x-direction) measured at locations on the upper and lower plates just adjacent to the gouge. The simulations show that during slip phases the magnitudes of the measured velocities on the upper and lower plates are proportional to the normal load and may be inversely proportional to the square root of the plate's shear modulus. Whereas, the driving shear velocity does not show distinct influence on the measured velocities. Additionally, large slip velocities are generally associated with large macroscopic friction coefficient drops. For the models subjected to smaller normal loads, larger shear velocities and with stiffer shear plates, the same magnitude of slip velocity could cause a larger drop of macroscopic friction coefficient. During stick phases, the velocities of the upper and lower plates are respectively slightly greater and slightly smaller than half of the driving shear velocity and are both in the same direction of shear. The shear strain rate of the gouge is calculated from this velocity difference between the upper and lower plate during stick phases and thus the gouge effective shear modulus can be calculated. The results show that the gouge effective shear modulus increases proportionally with normal load, while the influence of shear velocity and plate stiffness on gouge effective shear modulus is minor. The simulations address the dynamics of a laboratory-scale fault gouge system and may aid in revealing the complexities of earthquake frictional dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A direct numerical simulation study for confined non-isothermal jet impingement at moderate nozzle-to-plate distances: Capturing jet-to-ambient density effects

A direct numerical simulation (DNS) campaign is deployed for a series of confined downward oriented, non-isothermal turbulent impinging jet configurations. A baseline Reynolds number of 9960 is obtained through a precursor DNS pipe flow simulation (Re τ = 505). Three jet temperature configurations (confinement height to nozzle diameter of three) enter a cylindrical domain that share ambient and impingement plate temperatures (298.15 K). The range of jet temperatures are crafted such that the ratio of inlet to ambient density varies from unity to 0.52, showcasing the effect of density disparity on flow characteristics such as core collapse, radial mixing of momentum and energy, near-wall stagnation behavior, wall-jet profiles, and large-scale vortical structures. Surface quantities provided include mean radial heat flux and wall-shear stress profiles, and heat flux histograms at select radial stations. Results showcase increased radial normal stresses for higher temperature jets that support increased mixing, resulting in large-scale recirculation structures that are smaller, while retaining similar normalized radial wall profiles for shear stress, heat flux and pressure. Furthermore, radial plots for wall shear stress and Nusselt number showcase strong radial decay as compared to previous configurations that share similar jet and ambient temperatures. For the 373.15 K case, a Gaussian-like histogram for heat fluxes at the impingement plate transitions to a log-normal profile as radial distances increase. In contrast, the 573.15 K configuration displays a bi-modal heat flux characteristic at the impingement plate, and in similar manner to the moderate temperature counterpart, transitions to a log-normal profile at larger radial distances.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the FLASH Effect in a Rat Brain Organotypic Model With a Novel High-Energy Electron Beam

Ultrahigh dose rate (FLASH) radiation therapy is reported to reduce normal tissue toxicity while maintaining tumor control; however, mechanism(s) remain obscure. To study FLASH mechanisms in brain tissue, we developed a novel experimental platform featuring a specialized high-energy electron linear accelerator, High Intensity Gamma Ray Source (HIGS), paired with an organotypic ex vivo brain metastasis model. We varied interpulse spacing to modulate the mean dose rate (MDR) of our unique 35 MeV electron beam, while maintaining extremely high instantaneous dose rate (IDR). We characterized dosimetry and targeting accuracy of the FLASH beam with film dosimetry. We combined this FLASH beam with an organotypic rat brain slice/breast carcinoma coculture model of brain metastasis to assess effects on normal and neoplastic tissues. Live-cell and bioluminescence imaging demonstrated cancer cell growth effects, whereas normal tissue responses and immune activation were assessed using live-cell imaging, cytokine profiles, and confocal microscopy. Here, we performed comparison experiments with 20 MeV electrons from a Varian clinical linear accelerator (VCLA) using conventional dose rates. The highest IDR of the FLASH beam to date was 20.7 ± 0.6 MGy/s, with maximum MDR of 20.7 MGy/s delivered in 1 pulse of 1 µs duration. Beam targeting was accurate to <1 mm and reproducible. HIGS-FLASH and VCLA dose rates equivalently decreased cancer cell growth. HIGS-FLASH irradiation significantly increased tumor necrosis factor α and fractalkine levels and confocal microscopy revealed distinct changes in microglial morphology slices suggesting microglia activation. Our novel experimental platform produces extremely high dose rates and rapid normal/neoplastic tissue readouts for mechanistic research into the effects of FLASH radiation in the brain. HIGS-FLASH irradiation induces comparable cancer cell growth inhibition but differential effects on cytokines and microglial morphology, suggesting that acute innate immune responses may be involved in FLASH normal tissue effects in the brain.

Kay, Tyler V. [Duke University, Durham, NC (United↗

DOE OSTI2021

Full core LOCA safety analysis for a PWR containing high burnup fuel

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recurrence analysis of friction based dry-couplant ultrasonic Lamb waves in plate-like structures

Here, in this study, the effect of friction on the generation of dry-coupled Lamb waves is experimentally investigated. Recurrence analysis is performed to analyze the complex behavior of friction based dry-coupled Lamb waves. In particular, the effect of the normal force, which is necessary for a stronger dry-coupled Lamb wave generation and the friction, on the transmission of mechanical energy and determinism characteristics of Lamb waves are investigated. The results verify that larger friction coefficient and friction force are crucial for generation and propagation of strong Lamb waves supporting the fact that the main mechanism to transfer mechanical energy using dry-couplant is friction. The sensitivity of Lamb waves to the friction coefficient, highlights the importance of designing specific pads with respect to condition of the surface. Besides, the results show that the normal force and friction coefficient can change the determinism characteristics behavior of multimode Lamb waves. Furthermore, it is shown that the determinism value is sensitive to the friction coefficient and normal force. A similar trend is observed in the determinism values and friction coefficient. In general, a smaller friction coefficient indicates smaller determinism value. Additionally, it is shown that a normal load can change the behavior of a system, as observed from recurrence plots, owing to changes in the Lamb waves trajectories in the phase-space domain. In addition, it is shown that recurrence plots enable the detection of mode transitions in multimode Lamb waves. Recurrence analysis is a complementary tool to frequency domain methods for accurate analysis of multimode Lamb waves behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uniform momentum and temperature zones in unstably stratified turbulent flows

Wall-bounded turbulent flows exhibit a zonal arrangement, in which streamwise velocity organizes into uniform momentum zones (UMZs), separated by thin layers of elevated interfacial shear. While significant research efforts have focused on these structural features in neutrally stratified flows, the effects of unstable thermal stratification on UMZs and on analogous uniform temperature zones (UTZs) have not been considered previously. In this article, statistical properties of UMZs and UTZs are investigated using a suite of large eddy simulations of unstably stratified turbulent channel flow spanning weakly to highly convective conditions. When normalized by the friction velocity and stability-dependent mixing length, the mean velocity gradient based on UMZ interfacial velocity jumps and the vorticity thickness exhibits good collapse for all stabilities, establishing a link between UMZ properties and scaling predictions from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. A similar relationship is found between UTZ properties and surface-layer scaling of the mean temperature gradient. In the mixed layer, mean UMZ depth is quasi-constant with wall-normal distance, while the deepest UTZs are found in the centre of the boundary layer. These instantaneous structures are found to be linked to the well-mixed velocity and temperature profiles in the convective mixed layer. Conditional averaging indicates that both UMZ and UTZ interfaces are associated with ejections of momentum and warm updrafts below the interface and sweeps of momentum and cool downdrafts above the interface. These results demonstrate a tangible connection between instantaneous structural features, mean properties and scaling laws in unstably stratified flows.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lightning Interferometry Uncertainty, Beam Steering Interferometry, and Evidence of Lightning Being Ignited by a Cosmic Ray Shower

Abstract We present an uncertainty analysis on correlation‐based time delay estimate, the basis for broadband lightning interferometry. A normal interferometry would yield much higher uncertainties than the theoretically predicted lower bound due to finite correlation window lengths. However, if the signals are aligned in time, the uncertainties approach the lower bound and can be used to indicate the interferometric uncertainties. Based on this, we introduce a beam steering interferometry technique. It first estimates a direction centroid for the lightning sources with a normal interferometry and computes the time delays among the signals. It then shifts the raw data with the time delays to align the signals roughly in time and reprocess the aligned signals. It finally pushes the reprocessed results to their correct positions, based on the time delays estimated in the first step. We apply this technique on a fast positive breakdown (FPB) process that started a normal intracloud lightning. The FPB process is shown to have a much more complex structure and development than a normal interferometry would provide. More importantly, from both interferometric and polarization analyses, the FPB appears to be ignited by a cosmic ray shower (CRS). We estimate the radio frequency strength and frequency content related to a presumed CRS in a thunderstorm electric field and find that they are in agreement with the observations. We examine the electric field effect of the CRS front and find that it could raise the field above the threshold for positive breakdown and is capable of igniting the FPB (and the lightning).

Shao, Xuan‐Min↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shallow Aseismic Slip in the Delaware Basin Determined by Sentinel-1 InSAR

The Delaware Basin, Texas is currently a hot-spot of induced seismicity and ground deformation due to fluid extraction and injection associated with horizontal drilling techniques; however, the driving mechanism behind the seismicity and deformation remains under debate. Here, using vertical and east-west horizontal surface deformation measurements derived from Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we show that the subsurface responds differently to oil and gas activity in the northern and southeastern portions of the basin. In the north, where there is little seismicity, deformation patterns display long-wavelengths and equidimensional patterns. In contrast, the southeast region hosts most of the seismicity and displays spatial deformation patterns with narrow linear features that strike parallel to the maximum principal horizontal stress and to trends in seismicity, suggesting movement along normal faults. We model a linear deformation feature using edge dislocations and show that the InSAR observations can be reproduced by slip on normal faults contained within the Delaware Mountain Group (DMG), the formation that hosts local wastewater injection and the majority of earthquakes. Our model consists of three parallel, high-angle normal faults, with two dipping toward one another in a graben structure. Slip magnitudes reach up to 25 cm and are spatially correlated with injection wells. Measured seismicity can only explain ~2% of the fault motion predicted by our fault model, suggesting that slip leading to the deformation is predominantly aseismic. We conclude that seismic and aseismic fault motion in the southeastern Delaware Basin is likely driven by wastewater injection near critically-stressed normal faults within the DMG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Three-dimensional full-field velocity measurements in shock compression experiments using stereo digital image correlation

Shock compression plate impact experiments conventionally rely on point-wise velocimetry measurements based on laser-based interferometric techniques. This study presents an experimental methodology to measure the free surface full-field particle velocity in shock compression experiments using high-speed imaging and three-dimensional (3D) digital image correlation (DIC). The experimental setup has a temporal resolution of 100 ns with a spatial resolution varying from 90 to 200 μm/pixel. Experiments were conducted under three different plate impact configurations to measure spatially resolved free surface velocity and validate the experimental technique. First, a normal impact experiment was conducted on polycarbonate to measure the macroscopic full-field normal free surface velocity. Second, an isentropic compression experiment on Y-cut quartz–tungsten carbide assembly is performed to measure the particle velocity for experiments involving ramp compression waves. To explore the capability of the technique in multiaxial loading conditions, a pressure shear plate impact experiment was conducted to measure both the normal and transverse free surface velocities under combined normal and shear loading. The velocities measured in the experiments using digital image correlation are validated against previous data obtained from laser interferometry. Numerical simulations were also performed using established material models to compare and validate the experimental velocity profiles for these different impact configurations. The novel ability of the employed experimental setup to measure full-field free surface velocities with high spatial resolutions in shock compression experiments is demonstrated for the first time in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observation of impurity accumulation and its compatibility with high plasma performance in W7-X

At the W7-X stellarator, the bolometer system has measured an intensive radiation zone in the inner plasma region (at a normalized radius $ρ$ ~ 0.3–0.4) in the hydrogen plasma generated by electron cyclotron resonance heating; it differs from the normal plasma radiation distribution with an edge-localized emission zone. Spectroscopic diagnostics have recorded high-Z elements such as iron. This phenomenon happens in the plasma phases after gas supply turn-off, which results in all impurity relevant diagnostic signals increasing for several seconds. Despite the enhancement of the core radiation, the plasma energy confinement is improved. A transport analysis shows that this impurity radiation behavior is associated with a low diffusion coefficient ($D$~ 0.02 m 2 s -1 ) and a reversal of the convection around the radial position of the emission peak, which, under normal conditions, separates the zones of outward convection in the central (|$V$| ~ 0.1 m s -1 ) and inward convection in the outer region (|$V$| ~ 0.3 m s -1 ). An impurity accumulation around this radial position has been identified. The transport coefficients obtained are comparable with the theoretical predictions of collisional impurity transport. In the plasma phases studied, both impurity and energy confinement are enhanced. The mechanism responsible for the improvement is believed to be a reduction of micro-instabilities associated with the observed steepening of the density profile, initiated by a low edge plasma density (<1.0 × 10 19 m -3 ) after switching off the gas fueling. The normalized temperature and density gradients fulfil the condition for the suppression of ITG turbulence.

suppression of ITG turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2020

CODEX weak lensing mass catalogue and implications on the mass–richness relation

The COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray clusters (CODEX) sample contains the largest flux limited sample of X-ray clusters at 0.35 < z < 0.65. It was selected from ROSAT data in the 10 000 square degrees of overlap with BOSS, mapping a total number of 2770 high-z galaxy clusters. We present here the full results of the CFHT CODEX programme on cluster mass measurement, including a reanalysis of CFHTLS Wide data, with 25 individual lensing-constrained cluster masses. We employ lensfit shape measurement and perform a conservative colour–space selection and weighting of background galaxies. Using the combination of shape noise and an analytic covariance for intrinsic variations of cluster profiles at fixed mass due to large-scale structure, miscentring, and variations in concentration and ellipticity, we determine the likelihood of the observed shear signal as a function of true mass for each cluster. We combine 25 individual cluster mass likelihoods in a Bayesian hierarchical scheme with the inclusion of optical and X-ray selection functions to derive constraints on the slope α, normalization β, and scatter σln λ|μ of our richness–mass scaling relation model in log-space: ${\langle {\rm In}\,\, \lambda\!\!\mid\!\!\mu\rangle = \alpha\mu + \beta,} $ with μ = ln (M 200c /M piv ), and M piv = 10 14.81 M ⊙ . We find a slope $\alpha = 0.49^{+0.20}_{-0.15}$, normalization $\exp (\beta) = 84.0^{+9.2}_{-14.8}$, and $\sigma _{\ln \lambda | \mu } = 0.17^{+0.13}_{-0.09}$ using CFHT richness estimates. In comparison to other weak lensing richness–mass relations, we find the normalization of the richness statistically agreeing with the normalization of other scaling relations from a broad redshift range (0.0 < z < 0.65) and with different cluster selection (X-ray, Sunyaev–Zeldovich, and optical).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Lick Observatory Supernova Search follow-up program: photometry data release of 70 SESNe

We present BVRI and unfiltered (Clear) light curves of 70 stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe), observed between 2003 and 2020, from the Lick Observatory Supernova Search follow-up program. Our SESN sample consists of 19 spectroscopically normal SNe Ib, 2 peculiar SNe Ib, six SNe Ibn, 14 normal SNe Ic, 1 peculiar SN Ic, 10 SNe Ic-BL, 15 SNe IIb, 1 ambiguous SN IIb/Ib/c, and 2 superluminous SNe. Our follow-up photometry has (on a per-SN basis) a mean coverage of 81 photometric points (median of 58 points) and a mean cadence of 3.6 d (median of 1.2 d). From our full sample, a subset of 38 SNe have pre-maximum coverage in at least one passband, allowing for the peak brightness of each SN in this subset to be quantitatively determined. We describe our data collection and processing techniques, with emphasis toward our automated photometry pipeline, from which we derive publicly available data products to enable and encourage further study by the community. Using these data products, we derive host-galaxy extinction values through the empirical colour evolution relationship and, for the first time, produce accurate rise-time measurements for a large sample of SESNe in both optical and infrared passbands. By modelling multiband light curves, we find that SNe Ic tend to have lower ejecta masses and lower ejecta velocities than SNe Ib and IIb, but higher 56Ni masses.

Lick Observatory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuating intertwined stripes in the strange metal regime of the Hubbard model

Strongly correlated electron systems host a variety of poorly understood correlations in their high-temperature normal state. Unlike ordered phases defined by order parameters, regions of the normal state are often defined through unconventional properties such as strange metallic transport or spectroscopic pseudogaps. Characterizing the microscopic correlations in the normal state is necessary to elucidate mechanisms that lead to these properties and their connection to ground-state orders. Here, in this paper, we establish the presence of intertwined charge and spin stripes in the strange metal normal state of the Hubbard model using determinant quantum Monte Carlo calculations. The charge and spin density waves constituting the stripes are fluctuating and short ranged; yet they obey a mutual commensurability relation and remain microscopically interlocked, as evidenced through measurements of three-point spin-spin-hole correlation functions. Our findings demonstrate the ability of many-body numerical simulations to unravel the microscopic correlations that define quantum states of matter.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

The use of subchondral bone topography to approximate the center of rotation of the elbow joint in dogs

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to compare the approximate center of rotation in normal and diseased elbows in dogs. Study design Cross‐sectional study Sample population Computer tomography scans of nine dogs with unilateral fragmented medial coronoid process (FMCP). Methods A board certified radiologist confirmed that each dog had unilateral FMCP, and a normal contralateral elbow. Digital 3D models of all elbow joints were uploaded into a surgical planning software package. Four axes approximating the center of rotation (COR) of elbow joints were generated using five geometric shapes based on subchondral topography of the humeral condyle radius and ulna. Images showing the locations where axes exited the medial and lateral cortex of the humeral condyle were captured and imported into a second software package, for measurement of distances between exit points and the origin of a system of axes. Results In normal joints 20/27 (74%) axes exited the medial cortex, and 25/27 (93%) axes exited the lateral cortex cranial and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. In diseased joints 22/27 (81%) axes exited medial cortex and 19/27 (70%) axes exited the lateral cortex, caudal and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. Conclusion Based on CT‐ derived geometry, the COR of elbow affected with FMCP was generally more caudal than normal. Clinical significance External landmarks approximating the location of the elbow COR are provided, and while not validated, may assist in planning, creation, and assessment of procedures for FMCP.

Berger, Chen↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Relationship between Precipitation and Precipitable Water in CMIP6 Simulations and Implications for Tropical Climatology and Change

It is well documented that over the tropical oceans, column-integrated precipitable water (pw) and precipitation (P) have a nonlinear relationship. In this study moisture budget analysis is used to examine this P–pw relationship in a normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the parameters of the nonlinear relationship depend on the vertical structure of moisture convergence. Specifically, the precipitable water values at which precipitation is balanced independently by evaporation versus by moisture convergence define a critical normalized precipitable water, pw nc . This is a measure of convective inhibition that separates tropical precipitation into two regimes: a local evaporation-controlled regime with widespread drizzle and a precipitable water–controlled regime. Most of the 17 CMIP6 historical simulations examined here have higher pw nc compared to ERA5, and more frequently they operate in the drizzle regime. When compared to observations, they overestimate precipitation over the high-evaporation oceanic regions off the equator, thereby producing a ‘‘double ITCZ’’ feature, while underestimating precipitation over the large tropical landmasses and over the climatologically moist oceanic regions near the equator. The responses to warming under the SSP585 scenario are also examined using the normalized precipitable water framework. It is shown that the critical normalized precipitable water value at which evaporation versus moisture convergence balance precipitation decreases as a result of the competing dynamic and thermodynamic responses to warming, resulting in an increase in drizzle and total precipitation. Statistically significant historical trends corresponding to the thermodynamic and dynamic changes are detected in ERA5 and in lowintensity drizzle precipitation in the PERSIANN precipitation dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗