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At least 379 records · Page 21

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shear Behavior of Artificial Clay Seams within Bedded Salt Structures

Bedded salt contains thin layers of clay, also known as clay seams, in-between far thicker layers of salt. These inhomogeneities are thought to have first-order effects on the closure of nearby drifts and potential roof collapses. Despite their importance, characterizations of the peak shear strength and residual shear strength of clay seams in salt are extremely rare in the published literature. A previous paper reported results from laboratory direct shear experiments on clay seam samples from the Permian Basin in New Mexico. These clay seams behaved similar to intact salt, which was attributed to the abundance of salt crystals intersecting the clay seams. None of those specimens contained a distinct ¼" - ½" (6 -12 mm) thick clay seam, as has been observed in drifts at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Due to the difficulty in obtaining WIPP samples with these types of clay seams, artificial seams of bentonite and brine sandwiched between sections of salt were created and shear tested. Eight 4" diameter samples were created with either a ¼" or ½" a thick seam and then consolidated at 3000 psi prior to shear testing. The direct shear tests on these samples were performed at nominal normal stresses representative of expected WIPP in-situ conditions (500 to 1500 psi). The resulting shear stress vs. shear displacement curves exhibited a peak followed by a gradual decay of shear strength. The shear stress never transitioned to a true residual shear stress plateau, so the final shear strength at the end of each test (0.75" of shear displacement) was analyzed instead. Both the peak shear strength and the final shear strength conformed to Mohr- Coulomb behavior with friction angles and cohesion strengths consistent with a saturated, highly consolidated, clay. These new artificial clay seam results and the previous clay-interspersed-with-salt results likely bound the expected shear behavior of WIPP clay seams.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

On the performance of Trellis coded modulation with octal phase shift keying over the TDRSS channel

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration moves into the 21st century with programs like Space Station Freedom, a manned mission to Mars, and the new Landsat mission, transmission demands on the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) will very likely exceed the available bandwidth. The Manual Lujan, Jr. Center for Space Telemetering and Telecommunications Systems (CSTTS) at New Mexico State University (NMSU) is studying techniques for increasing the data rate capabilities of TDRSS. These techniques include the use of advanced bandwidth efficient modulation formats to increase the data rate that can be sustained in a TDRSS transponder and the use of lossless bandwidth compression of the data to be transmitted to lower the data rate required from the user spacecraft. Based upon current technology the most promising bandwidth efficient modulation technique is Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) operating with Octal Phase shift Keying (8PSK). Trellis Coded Modulation coding with 8PSK carrier modulation has the capability to increase the data rate which can be transmitted through the TDRSS spacecraft by a factor of 2 to 2.5 times that available with todays coded QPSK systems with only a small penalty in link performance relative to the existing systems. However, before NASA can safely employ TCM coding it is necessary to prove that this complex format can perform on the real TDRSS link as it does in labs and simulation studies. This proof-of-concept test over a live satellite channel was the objective of the construction and testing performed under this task of the NMSU NASA grant referenced above. In conjunction with NASA, NMSU's CSTTS has constructed a system to test a new candidate TDRSS modulation scheme, TCM 8PSK, that can enhance the information throughput of the TDRSS spacecraft. The test system for this project which was constructed over a period of 18 months by NMSU consisted of two racks of commercial and univeristy-designed and -built equipment. This project has included modifications of an existing White Sands Ground Terminal (WSGT) High Rate QPSK Demodulator to demodulate 8PSK as well as the construction of other support hardware. Also, two TCM codecs (coder/decoders) have been constructed to implement two levels of bandwidth efficiency. One was designed and built by the research team at NMSU while the other was created by the University of Notre Dame with the University of South Australia. The NMSU codec achieves a 2-to-1 increase in data rate per unit bandwidth with a coding gain relative to QPSK of about 3dB. The Notre Dame/South Australia codec achieves a 2.5-to-1 increase in data rate per unit of occupied bandwidth and a coding gain of about 2dB.

Osborne, William P.↗

NASA Data Acquisition System Software Development for Rocket Propulsion Test Facilities

Current NASA propulsion test facilities include Stennis Space Center in Mississippi, Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama, Plum Brook Station in Ohio, and White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico. Within and across these centers, a diverse set of data acquisition systems exist with different hardware and software platforms. The NASA Data Acquisition System (NDAS) is a software suite designed to operate and control many critical aspects of rocket engine testing. The software suite combines real-time data visualization, data recording to a variety formats, short-term and long-term acquisition system calibration capabilities, test stand configuration control, and a variety of data post-processing capabilities. Additionally, data stream conversion functions exist to translate test facility data streams to and from downstream systems, including engine customer systems. The primary design goals for NDAS are flexibility, extensibility, and modularity. Providing a common user interface for a variety of hardware platforms helps drive consistency and error reduction during testing. In addition, with an understanding that test facilities have different requirements and setups, the software is designed to be modular. One engine program may require real-time displays and data recording; others may require more complex data stream conversion, measurement filtering, or test stand configuration management. The NDAS suite allows test facilities to choose which components to use based on their specific needs. The NDAS code is primarily written in LabVIEW, a graphical, data-flow driven language. Although LabVIEW is a general-purpose programming language; large-scale software development in the language is relatively rare compared to more commonly used languages. The NDAS software suite also makes extensive use of a new, advanced development framework called the Actor Framework. The Actor Framework provides a level of code reuse and extensibility that has previously been difficult to achieve using LabVIEW. The

Herbert, Phillip W., Sr.↗

A Rapid Sequential Separation Method for Determination of Actinides and TENORM in Fracking Wastes - 20223

With recent advances in unconventional drilling technology in the US and around the world, the risks of environmental contamination and exposure due to technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) from fracking wastes have also surfaced. Although the Permian Basin (southeastern New Mexico, western Texas) has long been a modest producer of oil, the advent of fracking technology a decade ago turned it into hot property for producers. A 2018 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources by the U.S. Geological Survey estimates an average 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of gas. This is likely to increase the use of unconventional drilling and TENORM generation. TENORM concentrations in oil and gas exploration and production waste can be several hundred to several thousand times higher than background TENORM concentrations. Both the thorium and uranium decay chains contribute to airborne radionuclides arising from the radon gas escaping the ground and subsequently decaying as airborne particulates. Additionally, radon decay products {sup 210}Pb and {sup 210}Po can build up in scale on the internal surfaces of oil and gas handling pipes and in sludge in refineries, becoming potential inhalation and ingestion hazards for workers. Furthermore, southeastern NM is also home to world's only licensed and operating transuranic nuclear waste repository, the DoE's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Plutonium isotopes ({sup 239+240}Pu) and {sup 241}Am, are expected to account for more than 99% of the total radioactivity scheduled for disposal in the WIPP repository. Thus, an improved understanding of the environmental fate and transport of TENORM, liberated by unconventional drilling, is essential to assess how best to protect individuals and the environment. In this context, accurate measurement of TENORM and actinides in environmental and biological samples is essential. In this presentation, a new sequential method for the separation and pre-concentration of actinides (Pu, Am, Np) and TENORM (Po, U and Th) derived from oil and gas exploration is proposed. The TEVA method involves a rapid co-precipitation step to remove matrix interferences from the samples, followed by plutonium oxidation state adjustment to Pu (IV) and an incubation period of ∼ 1 hour at 50-60 deg. C to allow the resultant Po (II) to oxidize into Po(IV). The polonium, neptunium, thorium and plutonium are then separated on a TEVA column, while americium and uranium are separated on a TRU column. After separation, the alpha counting source was prepared by micro-precipitation with copper sulfide (CuS) for polonium and neodymium fluoride (NdF{sub 3}) for actinides. The efficiency and reliability of the procedures were tested by analyzing filter, drinking water and frack sand samples. The method is simple, robust and can be performed quickly with excellent removal of interferences, high chemical recovery and very good alpha peak resolution. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Research in X-ray Astronomy

This research grant supported an active sounding rocket program at Penn State University over a period of over 10 years. During this period, the grant supported at least 8 graduate students in Astronomy & Astrophysics for at least a portion of their research. During the same period, our group was involved in seven sounding rocket flights, launched from White Sands, New Mexico, and from Woomera, Australia. Most of these rocket flights, and most of the work supported by this grant, involved the use of X-ray CCD cameras. The first X-ray CCD camera ever flown in space was our sounding rocket observation of SN1987A (flight 36.030 in 1987). Subsequent flights utilized improved CCD detectors, culminating in the'state-of-the-art EEV detector developed for our CUBIC mission, which was flown on 36.093 last May. Data from the last three flights, which observed the diffuse X-ray background with CCDS, include detection of the OVII He(alpha) line in the high latitude diffuse background and detection of the Mg XI He(alpha) line in the North Polar Spur. These results have been reported at meetings of the American Astronomical Society and the SPIE. The analysis of flights 36.092 and 36.106 is part of Jeff Mendenhall's PhD thesis and will be published in the Astrophysical Journal next year. The 36.093 data are currently being analyzed by PhD student Laura Cawley. From 1990 to 1996 this grant supported our development and launch of the CUBIC instrument on the SAC-B satellite, which was designed to measure the spectrum of the soft X-ray diffuse background with moderate energy resolution and high S/N ratio. Unfortunately, this mission terminated shortly after launch due to a failure of the Pegasus XL launch vehicle. This work resulted in publication of 4 papers in the SPIE Proceedings and four others in refereed journals, in addition to several other conference proceedings and contributed papers. In addition to the CCD flights described above, this grant has supported preliminary development of a new sounding rocket payload utilizing a replicated Ni mirror that is being developed at PSU in collaboration with MSFC. Initial testing of the coating technology has produced promising results.

Source record↗

The Washington DC Metro Area Lightning Mapping Array

During the spring and summer of 2006, a network of eight lightning mapping stations has been set up in the greater DC metropolitan area to monitor the total lightning activity in storms over Virginia, Maryland and the Washington DC area. The network is a joint project between New Mexico Tech, NASA, and NOAA/National Weather Service, with real-time data being provided to the NWS for use in their forecast and warning operations. The network utilizes newly available portable stations developed with support from the National Science Foundation. Cooperating institutions involved in hosting mapping stations are Howard University, Montgomery County Community College in Rockville MD, NOAA/NWS's Test and Evaluation Site in Sterling, VA, College of Southern Maryland near La Plata MD, the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University, Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, VA, the University of Maryland at Baltimore County, and George Mason University (Prince William Campus) in Manassas, VA. The network is experimental in that its stations a) operate in the upper rather than the lower VHF (TV channel 10, 192-198 MHz) to reduce the radio frequency background noise associated with urban environments, and b) are linked to the central processing site via the internet rather than by dedicated wireless communication links. The central processing is done in Huntsville, AL, and updated observations are sent to the National Weather Service every 2 min. The observational data will also be available on a public website. The higher operating frequency results in a decrease in signal strength estimated to be about 15-20 dB, relative to the LMA networks being operated in northern Alabama and central Oklahoma (which operate on TV channels 5 and 3, respectively). This is offset somewhat by decreased background noise levels at many stations. The receiver threshold levels range from about -95 dBm up to -80 dBm and the peak lightning signals typically extend 15-20 dB above the threshold values. Despite having decreased sensitivity, the network locates lightning in plan position over all of Maryland and Delaware, much of Virginia, and into Southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 3-D coverage is provided out to 100-150 km range from the Sterling WFO including the 3 major DC commercial airports (Reagan National, Dulles International, and Baltimore Washington International). The network will eventually consist of 10 or more stations, which will extend and improve its coverage.

Krehbiel, Paul↗

High Resolution X-ray Imaging

NAG5-5020 covered a period of 7.5 years during which a great deal of progress was made in x-ray optical techniques under this grant. We survived peer review numerous times during the effort to keep the grant going. In 1994, when the grant started we were actively pursuing the application of spherical mirrors to improving x-ray telescopes. We had found that x-ray detectors were becoming rapidly more sophisticated and affordable, but that x-ray telescopes were only being improved through the intense application of money within the AXAF program. Clearly new techniques for the future were needed. We were successful in developing and testing at the HELSTF facility in New Mexico a four reflection coma-corrected telescope made from spheres. We were able to demonstrate 0.3 arcsecond resolution, almost to the diffraction limit of the system. The community as a whole was, at that time, not particularly interested in looking past AXAF (Chandra) and the effort needed to evolve. Since we had reached the diffraction limit using non-Wolter optics we then decided to see if we could build an x-ray interferometer in the laboratory. In the lab the potential for improved resolution was substantial. If synthetic aperture telescopes could be built in space, then orders of magnitude improvement would become feasible. In 1998 NASA, under the direction of Dr Nick White of Goddard, started a study to assess the potential and feasibility of x-ray interferometry in space. My work became of central interest to the committee because it indicated that such was possible. In early 1999 we had the breakthrough that allowed us build a practical interferometer. By using flats and hooking up with the Marshall Space Flight Center facilities we were able to demonstrate fringes at 1.25keV on a one millimeter baseline. This actual laboratory demonstration provided the solid proof of concept that NASA needed. As the year progressed the future of x-ray astronomy jelled around the Maxim program. Maxim is a set of two major x-ray astronomy missions based on the concepts I developed and demonstrated under this SR&T grant. The first Maxim is to image the sky at 100 micro-arcsecond resolution. That is one thousand times higher resolution than Hubble. The full Maxim has the ultimate goal of imaging the event horizon of a black hole in an active galactic nucleus (ALAN). This will require 0.1 micro-arcsecond resolution - one million times higher than Hubble! Nonetheless, using the techniques developed under this grant, it has become possible. Maxim Pathfinder is now in the NASA planning for a new start in approximately 20 10. The full Maxim is carried as a vision mission for the post 2015 timeframe. Finally, this grant is the evolved version of the SR&T grant we carried during the 1980s and up to 1994. At that point in time this grant was also working on x-ray optics, but concentrating on x-ray spectroscopy. The techniques developed by 1990 were not chosen for use on Chandra or XMM-Newton because they were too new. During the last year, however, the Constellation-X mission recognized the need for better spectroscopy techniques and tapped our expertise. We were able to support the initial work on Con-X through this program. It now appears that the off-plane mount will be used in Con-X, increasing performance and decreasing cost and risk.

Cash, Webster↗

Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

Evaluating algorithmic bias on biomarker classification of breast cancer pathology reports

Objectives: This work evaluated algorithmic bias in biomarkers classification using electronic pathology reports from female breast cancer cases. Bias was assessed across 5 subgroups: cancer registry, race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, and socioeconomic status. Materials and Methods: We utilized 594 875 electronic pathology reports from 178 121 tumors diagnosed in Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Seattle, and Utah to train 2 deep-learning algorithms to classify breast cancer patients using their biomarkers test results. We used balanced error rate (BER), demographic parity (DP), equalized odds (EOD), and equal opportunity (EOP) to assess bias. Results: We found differences in predictive accuracy between registries, with the highest accuracy in the registry that contributed the most data (Seattle Registry, BER ratios for all registries >1.25). BER showed no significant algorithmic bias in extracting biomarkers (estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) for race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, or socioeconomic subgroups (BER ratio <1.25). DP, EOD, and EOP all showed insignificant results. Discussion: We observed significant differences in BER by registry, but no significant bias using the DP, EOD, and EOP metrics for socio-demographic or racial categories. This highlights the importance of employing a diverse set of metrics for a comprehensive evaluation of model fairness. Conclusion: A thorough evaluation of algorithmic biases that may affect equality in clinical care is a critical step before deploying algorithms in the real world. We found little evidence of algorithmic bias in our biomarker classification tool. Artificial intelligence tools to expedite information extraction from clinical records could accelerate clinical trial matching and improve care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Background Measurements and Simulations of the ComPair Balloon Flight

ComPair, a prototype of the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory (AMEGO), completed a short-duration high-altitude balloon campaign on 27 August 2023 from Fort Sumner, New Mexico, USA. The goal of the balloon flight was to demonstrate ComPair as both a Compton and Pair telescope in flight, reject the charged particle background, and measure the background γ-ray spectrum. This analysis compares measurements from the balloon flight with Monte Carlo simulations to benchmark the instrument. The comparison finds good agreement between the measurements and simulations and supports the conclusion that ComPair accomplished its goals for the balloon campaign. Additionally, two charged particle background rejection schemes are discussed: a soft ACD veto that records a higher charged particle event rate but with less risk of event loss, and a hard ACD veto that limits the charged particle event rate on board. There was little difference in the measured spectra from the soft and hard ACD veto schemes, indicating that the hard ACD veto could be used for future flights. The successes of ComPair’s engineering flight will inform the development of the next generation of ComPair with upgraded detector technology and larger active area.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neurosensory and Sinus Evolution as Tyrannosauroid Dinosaurs Developed Giant Size: Insight from the Endocranial Anatomy of Bistahieversor sealeyi

Tyrannosaurus rex and other tyrannosaurid dinosaurs were apex predators during the latest Cretaceous, which combined giant size and advanced neurosensory systems. Computed tomography (CT) data have shown that tyrannosaurids had a trademark system of a large brain, large olfactory bulbs, elongate cochlear ducts, and expansive endocranial sinuses surrounding the brain and sense organs. Older, smaller tyrannosauroid relatives of tyrannosaurids developed some, but not all, of these features, raising the hypothesis that tyrannosaurid-style brains evolved before the enlarged tyrannosaurid-style sinuses, which might have developed only with large body size. This has been difficult to test, however, because little is known about the brains and sinuses of the first large-bodied tyrannosauroids, which evolved prior to Tyrannosauridae. Here we present the first CT data for one of these species, Bistahieversor sealeyi from New Mexico. Bistahieversor had a nearly identical brain and sinus system as tyrannosaurids like Tyrannosaurus, including a large brain, large olfactory bulbs, reduced cerebral hemispheres, and optic lobes, a small tab-like flocculus, long and straight cochlear ducts, and voluminous sinuses that include a supraocciptal recess, subcondyar sinus, and an anterior tympanic recess that exits the braincase via a prootic fossa. When characters are plotted onto tyrannosauroid phylogeny, there is a two-stage sequence in which features of the tyrannosaurid-style brain evolved first (in smaller, nontyrannosaurid species like Timurlengia), followed by features of the tyrannosaurid-style sinuses (in the first large-bodied nontyrannosaurid tyrannosauroids like Bistahieversor). This suggests that the signature tyrannosaurid sinus system evolved in concert with large size, whereas the brain did not.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the distribution of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus) in relation to geology, topography, and climate

The Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus; hereafter JMS) is an endangered salamander restricted to the Jemez Mountains in north-central New Mexico, United States. This strictly terrestrial and lungless species requires moist surface conditions for activities such as mating and foraging. Threats to its current habitat include fire suppression and ensuing severe fires, changes in forest composition, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Forest composition changes resulting from reduced fire frequency and increased tree density suggest that its current aboveground habitat does not mirror its historically successful habitat regime. However, because of its limited habitat area and underground behavior, we hypothesized that geology and topography might play a significant role in the current distribution of the salamander. We modeled the distribution of the JMS using a machine learning algorithm to assess how geology, topography, and climate variables influence its distribution. The best habitat suitability model indicates that geology type and maximum winter temperature (November to March) were most important in predicting the distribution of the salamander (23.5% and 50.3% permutation importance, respectively). Minimum winter temperature was also an important variable (21.4%), suggesting this also plays a role in salamander habitat. Our habitat suitability map reveals low uncertainty in model predictions, and we found slight discrepancies between the designated critical habitat and the most suitable areas for the JMS. Because geological features are important to its distribution, we recommend that geological and topographical data are considered, both during survey design and in the description of localities of JMS records once detected.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Blind photovoltaic modeling intercomparison: A multidimensional data analysis and lessons learned

The Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) organized a blind PV performance modeling intercomparison to allow PV modelers to blindly test their models and modeling ability against real system data. Measured weather and irradiance data were provided along with detailed descriptions of PV systems from two locations (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and Roskilde, Denmark). Participants were asked to simulate the plane-of-array irradiance, module temperature, and DC power output from six systems and submit their results to Sandia for processing. The results showed overall median mean bias (i.e., the average error per participant) of 0.6% in annual irradiation and –3.3% in annual energy yield. While most PV performance modeling results seem to exhibit higher precision and accuracy as compared to an earlier blind PV modeling study in 2010, human errors, modeling skills, and derates were found to still cause significant errors in the estimates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Open‐source photovoltaic model pipeline validation against well‐characterized system data

Abstract All freely available plane‐of‐array (POA) transposition models and photovoltaic (PV) temperature and performance models in pvlib‐python and pvpltools‐python were examined against multiyear field data from Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data include different PV systems composed of crystalline silicon modules that vary in cell type, module construction, and materials. These systems have been characterized via IEC 61853‐1 and 61853‐2 testing, and the input data for each model were sourced from these system‐specific test results, rather than considering any generic input data (e.g., manufacturer's specification [spec] sheets or generic Panneau Solaire [PAN] files). Six POA transposition models, 7 temperature models, and 12 performance models are included in this comparative analysis. These freely available models were proven effective across many different types of technologies. The POA transposition models exhibited average normalized mean bias errors (NMBEs) within ±3%. Most PV temperature models underestimated temperature exhibiting mean and median residuals ranging from −6.5°C to 2.7°C; all temperature models saw a reduction in root mean square error when using transient assumptions over steady state. The performance models demonstrated similar behavior with a first and third interquartile NMBEs within ±4.2% and an overall average NMBE within ±2.3%. Although differences among models were observed at different times of the day/year, this study shows that the availability of system‐specific input data is more important than model selection. For example, using spec sheet or generic PAN file data with a complex PV performance model does not guarantee a better accuracy than a simpler PV performance model that uses system‐specific data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗