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At least 379 records · Page 21

Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events

Volcanic eruptions in otherwise clean environments are “natural experiments” wherein the effects of aerosol emissions on clouds and climate can be partitioned from meteorological variability and anthropogenic activities. In this work, we combined satellite retrievals, reanalysis products, and atmospheric modeling to analyze the mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions during two degassing events at the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018. The eruptive nature of the 2008 and 2018 degassing events was distinct from long-term volcanic activity for Kilauea. Although previous studies assessed the modulation of cloud properties from the 2008 event, this is the first time such an analysis has been reported for the 2018 event and that multiple degassing events have been analyzed and compared at this location. Both events resulted in significant changes in cloud effective radius and cloud droplet number concentration that were decoupled from local meteorology and in line with an enhanced cloud albedo. However, it is likely that the effects of volcanic emissions on liquid water path and cloud fraction were largely offset by meteorological variability. Comparison of cloud anomalies between the two events suggested a threshold response of aerosol–cloud interactions to overcome meteorological effects, largely controlled by aerosol loading. In both events, the ingestion of aerosols within convective parcels enhanced the detrainment of condensate in the upper troposphere, resulting in deeper clouds than observed under pristine conditions. Accounting for ice nucleation on ash particles led to enhanced ice crystal concentrations at cirrus levels and a slight decrease in ice water content, improving the correlation of the model results with the satellite retrievals. Overall, aerosol loading, plume characteristics, and meteorology contributed to changes in cloud properties during the Kilauea degassing events.

Katherine H. Breen↗

Autoplan: A self-processing network model for an extended blocks world planning environment

Self-processing network models (neural/connectionist models, marker passing/message passing networks, etc.) are currently undergoing intense investigation for a variety of information processing applications. These models are potentially very powerful in that they support a large amount of explicit parallel processing, and they cleanly integrate high level and low level information processing. However they are currently limited by a lack of understanding of how to apply them effectively in many application areas. The formulation of self-processing network methods for dynamic, reactive planning is studied. The long-term goal is to formulate robust, computationally effective information processing methods for the distributed control of semiautonomous exploration systems, e.g., the Mars Rover. The current research effort is focusing on hierarchical plan generation, execution and revision through local operations in an extended blocks world environment. This scenario involves many challenging features that would be encountered in a real planning and control environment: multiple simultaneous goals, parallel as well as sequential action execution, action sequencing determined not only by goals and their interactions but also by limited resources (e.g., three tasks, two acting agents), need to interpret unanticipated events and react appropriately through replanning, etc.

Dautrechy, C. Lynne↗

Interrelationship of Nondestructive Evaluation Methodologies Applied to Testing of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are commonly used in spacecraft for containment of pressurized gases and fluids, incorporating strength and weight savings. The energy stored is capable of extensive spacecraft damage and personal injury in the event of sudden failure. These apparently simple structures, composed of a metallic media impermeable liner and fiber/resin composite overwrap are really complex structures with numerous material and structural phenomena interacting during pressurized use which requires multiple, interrelated monitoring methodologies to monitor and understand subtle changes critical to safe use. Testing of COPVs at NASA Johnson Space Center White Sands T est Facility (WSTF) has employed multiple in-situ, real-time nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methodologies as well as pre- and post-test comparative techniques to monitor changes in material and structural parameters during advanced pressurized testing. The use of NDE methodologies and their relationship to monitoring changes is discussed based on testing of real-world spacecraft COPVs. Lessons learned are used to present recommendations for use in testing, as well as a discussion of potential applications to vessel health monitoring in future applications.

Leifeste, Mark R.↗

Influence of Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology on the Long-Range Transport of Indochina Biomass Burning Aerosols

Impacts of long-range transported biomass burning aerosols from northern Indochina on regional air quality, atmospheric visibility, and climate effects have been discussed extensively in the literature over the past decade. However, the mechanism between aerosol transport and the low-level jet (LLJ) in synoptic meteorology dynamics (e.g., the frontal system) is still not fully understood. In this study, we present results of aerosol-LLJ interaction based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application version 2 (NASA/MERRA-2) dataset simultaneous to field campaigns in spring 2013–2015 over Southeast Asia. For linking the atmospheric circulation to aerosol transport, a general meteorological condition favorable for aerosol transport is demonstrated. Biomass burning aerosol accumulation over the source region (i.e., northern Indochina) coincided with weak westerly system over the northern South China Sea, and as the synoptic weather system evolved, the aerosols were transported to downwind regions (i.e., Taiwan and West Pacific) by a cold front and LLJ dynamics. The MERRA-2 reanalysis data show the postcold front accompanied a LLJ stream at approximately 700 hPa (3 km) and accelerated the haze plume transport eastward with a life cycle of approximately 3–5 days, an event that reoccurred multiple times from March to April. Our results indicate that coexistence of LLJ and a South China Sea anticyclone at 700 hPa, which primarily could drive the mechanism behind these transport events. Furthermore, more observational data from Southeast Asia would greatly benefit studies of aerosol-meteorology interactions in the region.

Hsiang-Yu Huang↗

MMS Observations of Storm-Time Magnetopause Boundary Layers in the Vicinity of the Southern Cusp

During a storm-time interval around winter solstice, observations by the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission show multiple distinct magnetopause boundary layers (BLs) in the vicinity of the southern cusp. The microphysics of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during storm times are not well understood, because the observations are relatively lacking. This event enables the opportunity to probe the storm-time magnetopause, and observations support that MMS was near a reconnection site equatorward of the southern cusp, suggesting active reconnection in close proximity to closed magnetic flux regions in the BL. The Grid Agnostic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) for Extended Research Applications global MHD simulation shows evidence for transient secondary reconnection sites near the southern cusp, demonstrating mechanisms to form closed field line regions of the BL.

Brandon L. Burkholder↗

Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Experimental object-level strategic control with cooperating manipulators

This article presents the high-level control module and user interface of the Dynamic and Strategic Control of Cooperating Manipulators (DASCCOM) project at Stanford University's Aerospace Robotics Laboratory. In addition to cooperative dynamic control, DASCCOM incorporates real-time vision-ased feedback, a novel strategic programming technique, and an iconic 'object-only' graphical user interface. By focusing on the vertical integration problem, we are examining not only these subsystems, but also their interfaces and interactions. The control system implements a multilevel hierarchical structure interconnected via a real-time network. At the highest level, a mouse-driven graphical user interface allows an operator to direct the activities of the system conceptually. Strategic command is provided by an event-driven finite state machine. This methodology provides a powerful yet flexible technique for managing concurrent system interactions. The dynamic controller implements object impedance control - an extension of Neville Hogan's impedance control concept to cooperative multiple-arm manipulation of a single object. This article concentrates on user interfacing techniques and strategic programming capabilities. These modules allow the user to directly specify conceptual object relationships. Experimental results are presented, showing the system locating and identifying a moving object, 'catching' it, and performing a simple cooperative assembly. Each of these operations is executed autonomously, with only object-level task-specification direction from a remote operator.

Schneider, Stanley A.↗

Time-Varying Loads of Co-Axial Rotor Blade Crossings

The blade crossing event of a coaxial counter-rotating rotor is a potential source of noise and impulsive blade loads. Blade crossings occur many times during each rotor revolution. In previous research by the authors, this phenomenon was analyzed by simulating two airfoils passing each other at specified speeds and vertical separation distances, using the compressible Navier-Stokes solver OVERFLOW. The simulations explored mutual aerodynamic interactions associated with thickness, circulation, and compressibility effects. Results revealed the complex nature of the aerodynamic impulses generated by upperlower airfoil interactions. In this paper, the coaxial rotor system is simulated using two trains of airfoils, vertically offset, and traveling in opposite directions. The simulation represents multiple blade crossings in a rotor revolution by specifying horizontal distances between each airfoil in the train based on the circumferential distance between blade tips. The shed vorticity from prior crossing events will affect each pair of upperlower airfoils. The aerodynamic loads on the airfoil and flow field characteristics are computed before, at, and after each airfoil crossing. Results from the multiple-airfoil simulation show noticeable changes in the airfoil aerodynamics by introducing additional fluctuation in the aerodynamic time history.

Time-Varying Loads↗

The Real Time Interactive Display Environment (RTIDE), a display building tool developed by Space Shuttle flight controllers

NASA's Mission Control Center, located at Johnson Space Center, is incrementally moving from a centralized architecture to a distributed architecture. Starting with STS-29, some host-driven console screens will be replaced with graphics terminals driven by workstations. These workstations will be supplied realtime data first by the Real Time Data System (RTDS), a system developed inhouse, and then months later (in parallel with RTDS) by interim and subsequently operational versions of the Mission Control Center Upgrade (MCCU) software package. The Real Time Interactive Display Environment (RTIDE) was built by Space Shuttle flight controllers to support the rapid development of multiple new displays to support Shuttle flights. RTIDE is a display building tool that allows non-programmers to define object-oriented, event-driven, mouseable displays. Particular emphasis was placed on upward compatibility between RTIDE versions, ability to acquire data from different data sources, realtime performance, ability to modularly upgrade RTIDE, machine portability, and a clean, powerful user interface. The operational and organizational factors that drove RTIDE to its present form, the actual design itself, simulation and flight performance, and lessons learned in the process are discussed.

Kalvelage, Thomas A.↗

Compression of Jupiter's magnetosphere by the solar wind - Reexamination via MHD simulation of evolving corotating interaction regions

Major changes in the solar wind before, during and after the Pioneer 10 and 11 missions' encounter with the Jovian magnetosphere are considered. A numerical simulation of the multiple corotating interaction region (CIR) evolutions from one spacecraft to its sister spacecraft is shown to have confirmed the suggestion by Smith et al (1978) that Jupiter's magnetosphere was compressed by interplanetary CIRs during three out of four of the observed events. The MHD simulation presented suggests that the Jupiter magnetosphere reacts to solar wind rarefactions by expanding. A pair of previously unexplained magnetopause crossings of the Pioneer 11 outbound pass may be due to a delayed reexpansion of the Jupiter magnetosphere from a compression that occurred during the inbound pass.

Smith, Z. K.↗

Predicting the Cosmic-Ray Environment Near Earth

Package of computer programs developed to predict cosmic-ray environment for spacecraft in orbit near Earth. Single cosmic-ray particle deposits enough electrical charge on sensitive area of individual circuit to change bit state. Single-event upsets may not cause permanent damage but upset functioning devices. Used to predict upset rate for space mission. Also calculates time-average cosmic-ray environment for multiple circular orbits, fragments of trajectories, and isolated points. Package written in HPL for interactive execution and implemented on HP 9825B desktop computer.

Edmonds, L.↗

Evidence for Systematic Changes in the Stratospheric Aerosol Size Following Volcanic Eruptions of Diverse Magnitudes Using Space-Based Instruments

An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption’s main aerosol layer and an apparent change in aerosol size distribution that spans multiple orders of magnitude in the stratospheric impact of an volcanic event. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. In this respect, it may be a unique tool to verify the performance of interactive aerosol models used in GCMs and ESMs and may suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single channel observations such the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main aerosol layer may significantly modulate these results.

Larry Thomason↗

Interaction of Burning Metal Particles

Multiple particle/droplet flames are ubiquitous in practical combustion systems, and thus the flame interaction processes are of great practical importance. This explains the strong current interest in interactive combustion phenomena. This research is aimed at the investigation of combustion parameters of microgravity model aerosols: relatively large uniform metal particles aerosolized in microgravity environment. An experiment consisting of creation and ignition of a metal multiparticle system in microgravity and high-speed video-recording of the combustion events will produce visual records of the development of individual particle flames, their interactions and the particle motion they induce simultaneously with the observation of the entire aerosol combustion process. Frame by frame analysis of the video-images taken using a high-speed movie camera will allow one to determine particle brightness temperatures and the decrease in particle diameter during combustion. Analysis of the experimental results and comparison with the results of single metal particle combustion experiments, conducted under similar microgravity conditions in the framework of a parallel program, will establish the relationship between single and multiple particle burning rates and combustion temperatures, concentrations at which the flame substructure forms rather than individual particle flames, efficiency of radiative heat transfer in metal aerosol combustion, what is the role of electrostatic forces in structuring the flame and the effect of that structure on the flame propagation rate. Although some details of fine particle aerosol clouds, such as the kinetics limited burning rate, radiative heat transfer in a system with a high specific surface, particle induced turbulence, etc., will probably not be very well simulated in the planned experiments, they are relatively well understood and can be accounted for using an adequate individual particle combustion model. On the other hand, the unknown particle interaction phenomena to be studied in this research program are generic and can be readily projected onto a cloud combustion model which would also incorporate a correction for particle size.

Dreizin, Edward L.↗

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

Excessive production of electron pairs by soft photons in low multiplicity ion interactions

Three multiply charged primary cosmic ray interactions with carbon nuclei are reported, in which the number of materialized electron pairs within a distance of about 0.3 conversion length is larger than predicted from isospin considerations. These are the most energetic (sigma E gamma 4 TeV) of the low multiplicity ( 15 tracks) events observed in the Japanese-American Cooperative Experiment (JACEE-2) emulsion chamber.

Burnett, T. H.↗

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗