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At least 379 records · Page 21

Support for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) Field Campaign Report

An important challenge for Earth System Models (ESMs) is to represent land surface and subsurface processes and their complex interactions in a warming climate. This is especially important for arctic ecosystems where permafrost extent, topography, hydrology, vegetation, disturbance, and biogeochemistry are inextricably linked. The implications of such linkages include permafrost thaw and deepening of the active layer, microbial decomposition of vulnerable soil organic matter, altered productivity and migration of tall woody shrubs, and watershed-scale changes in surface and groundwater transport and storage. Although ESMs describe some of these interactions for high-latitude ecosystems, their representation requires extensive confrontation with field and laboratory observations to test and improve models, and to use those models to inspire new observations and experiments. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) is a 10-year project (2012 to 2022) to improve our predictive understanding of carbon-rich arctic system processes and feedbacks to climate. This is achieved through experiments, observations, and synthesis of existing data sets that strategically inform model process representation and parameterization, and that enhance the knowledge base required for model initialization, calibration, and evaluation. One question of special interest to the NGEE Arctic project addresses how above- and below-ground plant functional traits might change across environmental gradients, and what are the consequences for arctic ecosystem C, water, and nutrient fluxes? Arctic plant traits, and their variation in response to changing environmental conditions, will play a key role in the response of tundra ecosystems to warming, permafrost thaw, and the wetter or drier conditions expected in the future. The appropriate representation of these functional traits in models is necessary to accurately represent ecosystem C, water, and nutrient cycling in tundra ecosystems, now and in the future. We characterized the variation in above- and below-ground plant traits in response to varying edaphic and environmental conditions in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. These new data, combined with remote-sensing and synthesis activities across the Arctic and the globe, have been used to inform model structure and parameterization of key processes such as photosynthesis, nutrient dynamics, and trait variation across the landscape.

North Slope of Alaska, arctic processes (meteorolo↗

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

PARC3D calculations of the F/A-18A HARV inlet vortex generators

NASA Lewis Research Center is currently engaged in a research effort as a team member of the High Alpha Technology Program within the NASA agency. This program uses a specially-equipped F/A-18A aircraft called the High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV), in an effort to improve the maneuverability of high performance military aircraft at low-subsonic-speed, high-angle-of-attack conditions. The overall objective of the NASA Lewis effort is to develop inlet analysis technology towards efficient airflow delivery to the engine during these maneuvers. One portion of this inlet analysis technology uses computational fluid dynamics to predict installed inlet performance. Most of the F/A-18A HARV geometry, which includes the ramp/splitter plate, side diverter and slot, inlet lip and upper diverter, and deflected leading-edge flap has been modeled. The empennage and rear fuselage have not. A pair of vortex generators located on the bottom wall of the inlet were not modeled initially. These vortex generators were installed to alleviate any flow separation that may be induced by the wheel well protrusion into the inlet wall. Calculations completed with the PARC3D code showed that the pressure recovery has been underpredicted and the flow distortion over-predicted. To improve the correlation of PARC3D predictions with flight and wind tunnel tests, the vortex generators were included in the grid geometry and the results are presented in this report. The grid totals 27 blocks or 1.3 million grid points for the half model, which includes the vortex generator grid blocks. Two flight cases were calculated, a high speed case with a Mach number of 0.8 and angle of attack of 3.4; and a low speed case with a Mach number of 0.43 and angle of attack of 32.2. The vortex generators have a significant effect on the inlet boundary layers at high speed, low angle of attack; and have no effect at low speed, high angle of attack.

Podleski, Steve D.↗

Lessons Learned on Operating and Preparing Operations for a Technology Mission from the Perspective of the Earth Observing-1 Mission

The New Millennium Program's first Earth-observing mission (EO-1) is a technology validation mission. It is managed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and is scheduled for launch in the summer of 2000. The purpose of this mission is to flight-validate revolutionary technologies that will contribute to the reduction of cost and increase of capabilities for future land imaging missions. In the EO-1 mission, there are five instrument, five spacecraft, and three supporting technologies to flight-validate during a year of operations. EO-1 operations and the accompanying ground system were intended to be simple in order to maintain low operational costs. For purposes of formulating operations, it was initially modeled as a small science mission. However, it quickly evolved into a more complex mission due to the difficulties in effectively integrating all of the validation plans of the individual technologies. As a consequence, more operational support was required to confidently complete the on-orbit validation of the new technologies. This paper will outline the issues and lessons learned applicable to future technology validation missions. Examples of some of these include the following: (1) operational complexity encountered in integrating all of the validation plans into a coherent operational plan, (2) initial desire to run single shift operations subsequently growing to 6 "around-the-clock" operations, (3) managing changes in the technologies that ultimately affected operations, (4) necessity for better team communications within the project to offset the effects of change on the Ground System Developers, Operations Engineers, Integration and Test Engineers, S/C Subsystem Engineers, and Scientists, and (5) the need for a more experienced Flight Operations Team to achieve the necessary operational flexibility. The discussion will conclude by providing several cost comparisons for developing operations from previous missions to EO-1 and discuss some details that might be done differently for future technology validation missions.

Mandl, Dan↗

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This paper describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This presentation describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This paper describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

Electrified powertrain↗

A transport equation for the scalar dissipation in reacting flows with variable density: First results

Although the different regimes of premixed combustion are not well defined, most of the recent developments in turbulent combustion modeling are led in the so-called flamelet regime. The goal of these models is to give a realistic expression to the mean reaction rate (w). Several methods can be used to estimate (w). Bray and coworkers (Libby & Bray 1980, Bray 1985, Bray & Libby 1986) express the instantaneous reaction rate by means of a flamelet library and a frequency which describes the local interaction between the laminar flamelets and the turbulent flowfield. In another way, the mean reaction rate can be directly connected to the flame surface density (Sigma). This quantity can be given by the transport equation of the coherent flame model initially proposed by Marble & Broadwell 1977 and developed elsewhere. The mean reaction rate, (w), can also be estimated thanks to the evolution of an arbitrary scalar field G(x, t) = G(sub O) which represents the flame sheet. G(x, t) is obtained from the G-equation proposed by Williams 1985, Kerstein et al. 1988 and Peters 1993. Another possibility proposed in a recent study by Mantel & Borghi 1991, where a transport equation for the mean dissipation rate (epsilon(sub c)) of the progress variable c is used to determine (w). In their model, Mantel & Borghi 1991 considered a medium with constant density and constant diffusivity in the determination of the transport equation for (epsilon(sub c)). A comparison of different flamelet models made by Duclos et al. 1993 shows the realistic behavior of this model even in the case of constant density. Our objective in this present report is to present preliminary results on the study of this equation in the case of variable density and variable diffusivity. Assumptions of constant pressure and a Lewis number equal to unity allow us to significantly simplify the equation. A systematic order of magnitude analysis based on adequate scale relations is performed on each term of the equation. As in the case of constant density and constant diffusivity, the effects of stretching of the scalar field by the turbulent strain field, of local curvature, and of chemical reactions are predominant. In this preliminary work, we suggest closure models for certain terms, which will be validated after comparisons with DNS data.

Mantel, T.↗

Radiogenic heating of comets by 26Al and implications for their time of formation

The effect of radiogenic heating on the thermal evolution of spherical icy bodies with radii 1 km < R < 100 km was investigated. The radioisotopes considered were 26Al, 40K, 232Th, 235U, and 238U. Except for the 26Al abundance, which was varied, the other initial abundances were kept fixed, at values derived from those of chondritic meteorites and corresponding to a gas-to-dust ratio of 1. The initial models were homogeneous and isothermal (To = 10 K) amorphous ice spheres, in a circular orbit at 10(4) AU from the Sun. The main object of this study was to examine the conditions under which the transition temperature from amorphous into cubic ice (Ta = 137 K) would be reached. It was shown that the influence of the short-lived radionuclide 26Al dominates the effect of other radioactive species for bodies of radii up to approximately 50 km. Consequently, if we require comets to retain their ice in amorphous form, as suggested by observations, an upper limit of approximately 4 x 10(-9) is obtained for the initial 26Al abundance in comets, a factor of 100 lower than that of the inclusions in the Allende meteorite. A lower limit for the formation time of comets may thus be derived. The possibility of a coexistence of molten cometary cores and extended amorphous ice mantles is ruled out. Larger icy spheres (R > 100 km) reached Ta even in the absence of 26Al, due to the decay of the other radionuclides. As a result, a crystalline core formed whose relative size depended on the composition assumed. Thus the outermost icy satellites in the solar system, which might have been formed of ice in the amorphous state, have probably undergone crystallization and may have exhibited eruptive activity when the gas trapped in the amorphous ice was released (e.g., Miranda).

Non-NASA Center↗

Synergism of Saturn, Enceladus and Titan and Formation of HCNO Prebiotic Molecules

Saturn as a system has two very exotic moons Titan and Enceladus. Titan, taking in energy from Saturn's magnetosphere, solar UV irradiation, and cosmic rays, can make HCN based molecules as discussed in earlier paper by Raulin and Owen. Space radiation effects at both moons, and as coupled by the Saturn magnetosphere, could cause an unexpected series of events potentially leading to prebiotic chemical evolution at Titan with HCNO from magnetospheric oxygen as the new ingredient. The "Old Faithful" model suggests that Enceladus, highly irradiated by Saturn magnetospheric electrons and thus having a source of chemical energy from radiolytic gas production, has episodic ejections of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and various hydrocarbons into Saturn's magnetosphere. The hydrocarbons do not survive transport through the plasma environment, but oxygen ions from Enceladus water molecules become the dominant ion species in the outer magnetosphere. At Titan, Cassini discovered that 1) keV oxygen ions, evidently from Enceladus, are bombarding Titan's upper atmosphere and 2) heavy positive and negative ions exist in significant abundances within Titan's upper atmosphere. Initial models of heavy ion formation in Titan's upper atmosphere invoked polymerization of aromatics such as benzenes and their radicals to make polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) , while a more recent model by Sittler et al., has raised the possibility of carbon chains forming from the polymerization of acetylene and its radicals to make fullerenes. Laboratory measurements indicate that fullerenes, which are hollow carbon shells, can trap keV oxygen ions. Clustering of the fullerenes with aerosol mixtures from PAHs and the dominant nitrogen molecules could form larger aerosols enriched in trapped oxygen. Aerosol precipitation could then convey these chemically complex structures deeper into the atmosphere and to the moon surface. Ionizing solar UV, magnetospheric electron, and galactic cosmic ray irradiation would provide further energy for processing into more complex organic forms. Further ionizing irradiation from cosmic rays deep in the atmosphere "tho lin" molecules are produced with all the molecular components present from which prebiotic organic molecules can form. This synergy of Saturn system, exogenic irradiation, and molecular processes provides a potential pathway for accumulation of prebiotic chemistry on the surface of Titan. Since fullerenes are also thought to exist in interstellar space, similar processes may also occur there to seed molecular clouds with prebiotic chemical species. We will also discuss possible future laboratory experiments that could be done to investigate fullerene formation at Titan and the trapping of oxygen in fullerenes.

Sittler, Edward C.↗

Code Calibration Applied to the TCA High-Lift Model in the 14 x 22 Wind Tunnel (Simulation With and Without Model Post-Mount)

The objective of this study is to calibrate a Navier-Stokes code for the TCA (30/10) baseline configuration (partial span leading edge flaps were deflected at 30 degs. and all the trailing edge flaps were deflected at 10 degs). The computational results for several angles of attack are compared with experimental force, moments, and surface pressures. The code used in this study is CFL3D; mesh sequencing and multi-grid were used to full advantage to accelerate convergence. A multi-grid approach was used similar to that used for the Reference H configuration allowing point-to-point matching across all the trailingedge block interfaces. From past experiences with the Reference H (ie, good force, moment, and pressure comparisons were obtained), it was assumed that the mounting system would produce small effects; hence, it was not initially modeled. However, comparisons of lower surface pressures indicated the post mount significantly influenced the lower surface pressures, so the post geometry was inserted into the existing grid using Chimera (overset grids).

Lessard, Wendy B.↗

Development of a kinetic-thermodynamic model for lime-stabilization of Na-bentonite

This study presents the first kinetic model to predict the solid and pore solution composition of Na-bentonite clay reacting with slaked lime over a period of 720 days. The model successfully accounts for most experimental data using a single kinetic rate constant. The following sequence of reactions was predicted by the model: initial rapid dissolution of portlandite within the first 7 days, leading to a decrease in pH and dissolved calcium, and concurrent formation of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H: jennite), calcium aluminate hydrate (C-A-H: C₄AH₁₃), calcium aluminosilicate hydrates (stratlingite) and hydrotalcite. After 7 days, jennite and stratlingite are predicted to transform into tobermorite-II, contributing to strength development up to 28 days. From 28 to 90 days, continued montmorillonite dissolution is predicted, along with minor formation of ettringite, partial tobermorite-II dissolution, and precipitation of secondary phases such as albite and talc. Experimentally, portlandite dissolution was confirmed by TGA and XRD and found to be complete within 7 days, in agreement with model predictions. However, other predicted solid-phase transformations (e.g., tobermorite-II formation and dissolution, ettringite, albite, and talc formation) could not be conclusively verified through experimental techniques. Aqueous phase measurements confirmed that the pH and Ca trends in solution, and that equilibrium was reached by 90 days.

Chemical kinetics↗

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) projections by Earth System Models (ESMs) depend on ice sheet surface mass balances. Accurate, global atmosphere reanalyses would be ideal for providing equilibrated ice sheet model initial conditions in fully coupled ESM simulations. Here we present the first evaluation of 1980–1990 global reanalysis precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica that uses independent observations of net accumulation rates derived from shallow ice cores. Precipitation distributions from both the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA‐2) are highly correlated with contemporaneous co‐located net accumulation rates from Greenland ( r 2 > 0.95) and West Antarctica ( r 2 > 0.7). Three other commonly used reanalyses (WFDE5, CRUNCEP, and GSWP3) exhibit significantly weaker correlations on one or both ice sheets. Our findings imply that ESMs should use ERA5 or MERRA‐2 in data‐forced simulations to validate ice sheet model dynamics and precondition firn for SLR projections.

Schneider, Adam↗

Improving an Acoustic Vehicle Detector Using an Iterative Self-Supervision Procedure

In many non-canonical data science scenarios, obtaining, detecting, attributing, and annotating enough high-quality training data is the primary barrier to developing highly effective models. Moreover, in many problems that are not sufficiently defined or constrained, manually developing a training dataset can often overlook interesting phenomena that should be included. To this end, we have developed and demonstrated an iterative self-supervised learning procedure, whereby models are successfully trained and applied to new data to extract new training examples that are added to the corpus of training data. Successive generations of classifiers are then trained on this augmented corpus. Using low-frequency acoustic data collected by a network of infrasound sensors deployed around the High Flux Isotope Reactor and Radiochemical Engineering Development Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we test the viability of our proposed approach to develop a powerful classifier with the goal of identifying vehicles from continuously streamed data and differentiating these from other sources of noise such as tools, people, airplanes, and wind. Using a small collection of exhaustively manually labeled data, we test several implementation details of the procedure and demonstrate its success regardless of the fidelity of the initial model used to seed the iterative procedure. Finally, we demonstrate the method’s ability to update a model to accommodate changes in the data-generating distribution encountered during long-term persistent data collection.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Experimental Simulations of Lunar Magma Ocean Crystallization: The Plot (But Not the Crust) Thickens

Numerical models of differentiation of a global-scale lunar magma ocean (LMO) have raised as many questions as they have answered. Recent orbital missions and sample studies have provided new context for a large range of lithologies, from the comparatively magnesian "purest anorthosite" reported by to Si-rich domes and spinel-rich clasts with widespread areal distributions. In addition, the GRAIL mission provided strong constraints on lunar crustal density and average thickness. Can this increasingly complex geology be accounted for via the formation and evolution of the LMO? We have in recent years been conducting extensive sets of petrologic experiments designed to fully simulate LMO crystallization, which had not been attempted previously. Here we review the key results from these experiments, which show that LMO differentiation is more complex than initial models suggested. Several important features expected from LMO crystallization models have yet to be reproduced experimentally; combined modelling and experimental work by our group is ongoing.

Draper, D. S.↗

Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Lai, Chung-Cheng A.↗

n-Propylbenzene Droplet Combustion: Experiments and Numerical Modeling

n-Propylbenzene (PB, C9H12, 432K boiling point) is important as a constituent in surrogates for some transportation fuels but little is understood about its droplet burning characteristics. We present an experimental and numerical study of a fuel droplet burning under conditions where the sole means of gas transport is fuel evaporation at the droplet surface thereby creating a one-dimensional gas transport that is amenable to detailed numerical modeling. The one-dimensional gas transport that results is amenable to detailed numerical modeling. Initial droplet diameters (Do) ranged from 0.3 mm to about 5 mm to better understand the mechanisms that control burning over such a wide range of Do. For Do < 1 mm droplets were burned while anchored to 14 m SiC fibers within a sealed container in free-fall during which time the droplets were ignited by spark discharge and the burning process recorded by video cameras. Larger and free-floating droplets were studied in the spaced-based platform of the orbiting International Space Station for Do > 1.0 mm which provided unlimited times for experimental observation. Measurements of droplet, flame and soot shell diameters were made and are discussed in the presentation. The experimental results showed formation of optically thick soot clouds developing during burning that required a robust image analysis algorithm to enable measurement of droplet diameter. The measured droplet diameters were well predicted by a numerical model that included soot formation, a PB kinetic mechanism comprising 576 species and 27369 reactions, unsteady gas and liquid transport, variable properties and radiative transport. Flame diameters showed more variability compared to the simulations, depending on how the flame was defined (peak gas temperature and OH concentration). Droplets burned slower as Do was increased and the PB sooting propensity increased with Do. Flame extinction was observed for Do > 3.3 mm indicating a strong effect of radiation as Do was increased compared to the smaller droplet diameters examined where extinction was not experimentally observed. For the largest droplets examined the possibility that the observed extinction is indicative of a transition to cool flame burning is still under investigation.

Guo, Songtao↗

Updated Trends of the Stratospheric Ozone Vertical Distribution in the 60°S-60°N Latitude Range Based on the LOTUS Regression Model

This study presents an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S - 60°N latitude range over the 2000 - 2020 period using an updated version of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) regression model that was used to evaluate such trends up to 2016 for the last WMO Ozone Assessment (2018). In addition to the derivation of detailed trends as a function of latitude and vertical coordinates, the regressions are performed with the data sets averaged over broad latitude bands, i.e., 60°S–35°S, 20°S–20°N and 35°N–60°N. The same methodology as in the last Assessment is applied to combine trends in these broad latitude bands in order to compare the results with the previous studies. Longitudinally resolved merged satellite records are also considered in order to provide a better comparison with trends retrieved from ground-based records, e.g., lidar, ozone sondes, Umkehr, microwave and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometers at selected stations where long-term time series are available. The study includes a comparison with trends derived from the REF-C2 simulations of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). This work confirms past results showing an ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, which is now significant in the three broad latitude bands. The increase is largest in the northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes, with ~2.2%/decade at ~2.1 hPa, and ~2.1%/decade at ~3.2 hPa respectively, compared to ~1.6%/decade at ~2.6 hPa in the tropics. New trend signals have emerged from the records, such as a significant decrease of ozone in the tropics around 35 hPa and a non-significant increase of ozone in the southern midlatitudes at about 20 hPa. Non-significant negative ozone trends are derived in the lowermost stratosphere, with the most pronounced trends in the tropics. While a very good agreement is obtained between trends from merged satellite records and the CCMI-1 REF-C2 simulation in the upper stratosphere, observed negative trends in the lower stratosphere are not reproduced by models at southern and, in particular, at northern midlatitudes, where models report an ozone increase. However, the lower stratospheric trend uncertainties are quite large, for both measured and modelled trends. Finally, 2000-2020 stratospheric ozone trends derived from the ground-based and longitudinally resolved satellite records are in reasonable agreement over the European Alpine and tropical regions, while at the Lauder station in the southern hemisphere mid-latitudes they show some differences.

Stratospheric ozone trends↗