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At least 379 records · Page 21

Benchmarking quantum logic operations relative to thresholds for fault tolerance

Contemporary methods for benchmarking noisy quantum processors typically measure average error rates or process infidelities. However, thresholds for fault-tolerant quantum error correction are given in terms of worst-case error rates—defined via the diamond norm—which can differ from average error rates by orders of magnitude. One method for resolving this discrepancy is to randomize the physical implementation of quantum gates, using techniques like randomized compiling (RC). In this work, we use gate set tomography to perform precision characterization of a set of two-qubit logic gates to study RC on a superconducting quantum processor. We find that, under RC, gate errors are accurately described by a stochastic Pauli noise model without coherent errors, and that spatially correlated coherent errors and non-Markovian errors are strongly suppressed. We further show that the average and worst-case error rates are equal for randomly compiled gates, and measure a maximum worst-case error of 0.0197(3) for our gate set. Our results show that randomized benchmarks are a viable route to both verifying that a quantum processor’s error rates are below a fault-tolerance threshold, and to bounding the failure rates of near-term algorithms, if—and only if—gates are implemented via randomization methods which tailor noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fusion RF Modeling Machine Learning (FusionML_RF) v1.0

FusionML_RF consists of multiple codes and trained machine learning (ML) models that perform low-cost output modeling from the Genray-CQL3D. Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. For example, completing a single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time. On the other hand, these ML models achieve ~ms of inference time with high accuracy across the input parameter space. This software collection consists of multiple components. (1) codes that use ML methods and precomputed Genray-CQL3D simulation output to build regression models that enable approximate computations of Genray-CLQ3D outputs from arbitrary but physically meaningful input parameters (surrogate modeling); (2) three trained models created by the team, using a database of 16,000+ GENRAY/CQL3D simulations, to study the performance of ML models for surrogate modeling; (3) codes that load the trained models and simulation data, and then compute mean squared error between the models' predictions and the ground truth of simulation output data. This collection is being made available in conjunction with a scientific publication about the work to promote reusability and provide an artifact of the scientific work.

Bai, Zhe↗

Adaptive Determination of the Optimal Exchange Location in Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation

Wall-modeled large-eddy simulation introduces a modeling interface (or exchange location) separating the wall-modeled layer from the rest of the domain. The current state-of-the-art is to rely on user expertise when choosing where to place this modeling interface, whether this choice is tied to the grid or not. This paper presents a postprocessing algorithm that determines the exchange location systematically. The algorithm is based on a model for the error in the predicted wall shear stress and a model for the computational cost, and then finds the exchange location that minimizes a combination of the two. Here, the algorithm is tested both a priori and a posteriori using an equilibrium wall model for the flow over a wall-mounted hump, a boundary layer in an adverse pressure gradient, and a shock/boundary-layer interaction. The algorithm produces exchange locations that mostly agree with what an experienced user would suggest, with thinner wall-modeled layers in nonequilibrium flow regions and thicker wall-modeled layers where the boundary layer is closer to equilibrium. This suggests that the algorithm should be useful in simulations of realistic and highly complex geometries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Toward Predictive RANS and SRS Computations of Turbulent External Flows of Practical Interest

In this work, we investigate the main challenges to prediction of turbulent external flows of practical interest with Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) and Scale-Resolving Simulation (SRS) models. This represents a crucial step toward further developing and establishing these formulations so they can be confidently utilized in engineering problems without reference data. The study initiates by identifying the major challenges to prediction. A literature review is performed to illustrate their effects in RANS and SRS computations. Afterward, we evaluate the impact of the challenges to prediction by analyzing representative statistically steady and unsteady flows with prominent RANS and SRS methods. These include multiple turbulent viscosity and second-moment RANS closures, and hybrid and bridging SRS models. The results demonstrate the potential of the selected SRS models to predict engineering flows. Yet, they also show the importance of considering the challenges to prediction during the setup and conduction of numerical experiments. These can suppress the advantages of using SRS formulations. The data also indicate that only SRS models can confidently predict statistically unsteady flows. In contrast, the results demonstrate that mean-flow quantities of statistically steady flows can be efficiently calculated with RANS closures, especially second-moment closures. Among the selected SRS methods, bridging models reveal better suited for prediction due to their ability to prevent commutation errors and enable the robust evaluation of numerical and modeling errors. This last property allows the use of a new validation technique that does not require reference data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model-based approach to investigate equipment-induced error in pressure-waveform derived hemodynamic measurements

Advanced hemodynamic monitoring systems have provided less invasive methods for estimating pressure-derived measurements such as pressure-derived cardiac output (CO) measurements. These devices apply algorithms to arterial pressure waveforms recorded via pressure recording components that transmit the pressure signal to a pressure monitor. While standards have been developed for pressure monitoring equipment, it is unclear how the equipment-induced error can affect secondary measurements from pressure waveforms. We propose an approach for modelling different components of a pressure monitoring system and use this model-based approach to investigate the effect of different pressure recording configurations on pressure-derived hemodynamic measurements. The proposed model-based approach is a three-step process. (1) Modelling the response of pressure recording components using bench tests; (2) verifying the identified models through nonparametric equivalence tests; and (3) assessing the effects of pressure recording components on pressure-derived measurements. To delineate the application of this approach, we performed a series of model-based analyses to quantify the combined effect of a wide range of tubing configurations with various damping ratios and natural frequencies and monitors with different bandwidths on pressure waveforms and CO measurements by six pulse contour algorithms. Model-based results show the error in pressure-derived CO measurements because of tubing configurations with different natural frequencies and damping ratios. Tubing configurations with low natural frequencies (<23 Hz) altered characteristics of pressure waveforms in a way that affected the CO measurement, some by as much as 20%. Our method can serve as a tool to quantify the performance of pressure recording systems with different dynamic properties. In conclusion, this approach can be applied to investigate the effects of physiologic signal recording configurations on various pressure-derived hemodynamic measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

An Investigation of Time Distributions for Task Primitives to Support the HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

As an effort to support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method. GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability information for dynamic HRA calculation in the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework. HUNTER is a framework to support the dynamic modelling of human error in conjunction with other modelling tools. In this paper, we investigate time distributions using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which suggests an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research as well as collect input data for dynamic HRA using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld Simulator. In this study, time required for GOMS-HRA task primitives to satisfy thirteen statistical distributions is investigated. Then, the time distributions from student operators and professional operators are compared and discussed. As a result, this study identified several time distributions on five GOMS-HRA task primitives at a statistically significant level. According to analyses to date, a greater number of significant time distributions was found in abnormal or emergency operating procedures rather than standard operating procedures. In the future, it is expected that the result of this study can provide objective reference on elapsed time data for task primitives as well as help to realistically simulate scenarios within dynamic HRA.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Material Model Parameters Optimization in Liquid Mercury Target Dynamics Simulation With Machine Learning Surrogates

A pulsed spallation target is subjected to very short (∼0.7μs) but intense loads (23.3 kJ) from repeated proton pulses, which knock away neutrons from the mercury atoms’ nuclei for a wide range application in physics, engineering, medicine, petroleum exploration, biology, chemistry, etc. The effect of this pulsed loading on the stainless-steel target module which contains the flowing mercury target material is difficult to predict not only due to its short but intense explosive-like physical reaction, but also the nonlinear material behavior of the liquid mercury in the structure. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at high power level stage. However, prediction of the resultant loading on the target is more difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. A parameter sensitivity study was firstly employed to understand their impact on the simulation strains. The investigated parameters included E, μ, γ, σ, n, VFgas, and gas cumulative volume curve control parameters a and b. Verification and validation results from sparse polynomial expansions (SPE) method and directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) optimization show that the surrogate model had training error of ∼7% and validation error of ∼15%, indicating that machine learning methods and surrogate models can help optimize the uncertain parameters in the complex 2-phase material model. This approach is expected to fill the knowledge gap between unknown liquid-gas mixture material model and measured vessel strain responses.

Lin, Lianshan↗

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Baryon acoustic oscillation theory and modelling systematics for the DESI 2024 results

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of how fitting of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is carried out within the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument’s (DESI) 2024 results using its DR1 data set, and the associated systematic error budget from theory and modelling of the BAO. We derive new results showing how non-linearities in the clustering of galaxies can cause potential biases in measurements of the isotropic (⁠α iso ⁠) and anisotropic (⁠α ap ) BAO distance scales, and how these can be effectively removed with an appropriate choice of reconstruction algorithm. We then demonstrate how theory leads to a clear choice for how to model the BAO and develop, implement, and validate a new model for the remaining smooth-broad-band (i.e. without BAO) component of the galaxy clustering. Finally, we explore the impact of all remaining modelling choices on the BAO constraints from DESI using a suite of high-precision simulations, arriving at a set of best practices for DESI BAO fits, and an associated theory and modelling systematic error. Overall, our results demonstrate the remarkable robustness of the BAO to all our modelling choices and motivate a combined theory and modelling systematic error contribution to the post-reconstruction DESI BAO measurements of no more than 0.1 per cent (0.2 per cent) for its isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We expect the theory and best practices laid out to here to be applicable to other BAO experiments in the era of DESI and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-area parameter error identification for large power systems

Power grid model parameters may contain errors due to various reasons. Detecting and correcting parameter errors typically requires significant computational effort due to the size and complexity of the parameter database. While the normalized Lagrange multiplier (NLM) method can effectively detect, identify and correct parameter errors, its computational burden could rapidly grow with increasing system size. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a multi-area parameter error identification method. Each area has its own outlier detection tool for detecting the incorrect parameters and measurements within the area. On the other hand, due to the reduced redundancy at area boundaries, parameter errors on branches incident to boundary buses may not be detected. Such errors are subsequently detected by a coordination level estimator completing the system-wide parameter detection procedure. In conclusion, performance of the developed method is demonstrated using the IEEE 118-bus and 2000-bus Texas synthetic systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work, we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the “clean and dirty” setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in the concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the "clean and dirty" setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost-constrained adaptive simulations of transient spray combustion in a gas turbine combustor

Predictive high-fidelity simulations of turbulent spray combustion must capture the combined effects of complex chemistry, multiphase evaporating flow and spray-flame interactions to achieve physical accuracy. Finite-rate chemistry (FRC) combined with a realistic chemical mechanism is a combustion model well-suited for this purpose, but has a high computational cost due to the large number and stiffness of transported chemical species. In contrast, flamelet-based models achieve lower cost by transporting a small number of quantities of reduced stiffness, but assumptions regarding local flame topology, boundary conditions and inter-phase coupling limit their physical accuracy. Recently, the Pareto-efficient combustion (PEC) framework was developed to dynamically assign combustion models based on local cost and accuracy metrics in gas-phase reacting flows. In this work, we extend this PEC framework to spray combustion through the rigorous analysis of the multiphase coupling terms in the governing equations. The derivation shows that spray evaporation causes errors in the prediction of species mass fractions for flamelet-based models due to the sensitivity of the local thermo-chemical state to changes in composition caused by fuel vaporization across combustion regimes present in practical spray combustion devices. Sub-model assignment is formulated as a multiple-choice knapsack problem, where computational cost is directly controlled through the fraction of the domain assigned to the FRC sub-model. The extended PEC formulation is applied to the simulation of a realistic rich-quench-lean gas turbine combustor at steady-state conditions, as well as transient operation resulting in lean blow-out (LBO). Analysis of transient simulations during LBO demonstrates the extended PEC formulation’s capacity to dynamically adapt to changing conditions within the combustor. Transient combustor dynamics are shown to approach convergence with limited increases in computational cost, while retaining substantial computational cost reduction compared to monolithic FRC simulations. Through PEC simulations with increasing fractions of the domain assigned to FRC, monolithic flamelet simulations are shown to over-predict flame stability during LBO. Finally, the extended PEC formulation is thus shown to overcome deficiencies of monolithic models by controlling modeling error for multiphase combustion modeling.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗