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At least 379 records · Page 21

ChIMES: A Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Targeting Improved Description of Condensed Phase Chemistry in Energetic Materials

In this report we detail completion of a Physics and Engineering Model Level Two Milestone targeting improved reactive interatomic potentials (IAPs) for energetic materials (EM) through machine learning. The specific goals of this milestone were to develop, validate, and document a new reactive molecular dynamics method for EM, based on machine learning by (1) generating databases of first-principles-derived forces, stresses, and energies for HN3 and 3,4-bis(3-nitrofurazan- 4-yl)furoxan (DNTF) (2) generate atomistic force fields from these databases via ML, and (3) benchmark model performance against first principles calculations. These goals were achieved by (1) further developing a machine learned reactive IAP and generation approach (i.e. the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation or “ChIMES”), for which resulting IAPs can approach the predictive power of quantum-mechanical approaches at a fraction of the computational expense, and (2) applying the ChIMES framework to develop models for HN3 and DNTF. We find that for simple energetic materials like HN3, high accuracy ChIMES models can be obtained through application of a fitting approach that does not use active machine learning. We demonstrate the suitability of ChIMES models for simulations involving EM by using the HN3 model in multiscale shock technique simulations to predict the HN3 Chapman-Jouguet detonation state and investigate chemical evolution out to 1 ns following shock compression. This model is then used in larger direct shock (DS) simulations for a preliminary investigation of how bubbles (i.e. voids) influence material response under shock compression. We find that more complex EM (i.e. DNTF) necessitate a more sophisticated fitting approach, and develop a new active learning method and python tool to meet this challenge. We demonstrate that this fitting approach yields ChIMES models that out-perform commonly used standard reactive IAPs as well as semi-empirical quantum methods, and discuss the systematic improvability of these actively learned ChIMES models. We also describe challenges related to model development for EM such as DNTF, for which few experimental or previous simulation data are available (e.g. which could otherwise inform generation of training data). To overcome this issue, we establish a semi-empirical quantum ChIMES capability which can be used to efficiently map out relevant thermodynamic and configurational space, and generate ChIMES-IAP training data in a multiscale manner. We also show that these semi-empirical quantum ChIMES models can be used to generate predictions for the shock Hugoniot (the Hugoniot is the locus of thermodynamic states found in a shocked material) equation of state, investigate related thermochemistry, and explore carbon condensation following shock compression. This work represents a substantial advance in our atomistic modeling capability for EM that will provide much needed information on the chemistry of detonation for continued development of continuum models based on the Cheetah thermochemical code.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Predicting Deformation of Parts from HP Printers due to Sintering with Modeling and Simulation (CRADA NFE-18-07363)

This work proposes to leverage Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) sintering simulation software developed at the Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to 1) investigate the deformation of sintered parts and 2) to develop fast surrogate-based optimization methods for HP Inc. This includes the development of ORNL’s software on HP systems, integration and testing with HP part geometries and material properties, the development of surrogate models based on the results of the simulation, and modifications to the software based on feedback from HP. The expected impacts of this work are a drastic reduction in print costs, an increase in printer throughput, and the identification of novel, possibly exotic materials for 3D printing. This work will also decrease the time to market for HP’s print technology by decreasing the amount of resources and type dedicated to physical testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Subbasin-based framework to represent land surface processes in an Earth System Model

Realistically representing spatial heterogeneity and lateral land surface processes within and between modeling units in earth system models is important because of their implications to surface energy and water exchange. The traditional approach of using regular grids as computational units in land surface models and earth system models may lead to inadequate representation of lateral movements of water, energy and carbon fluxes, especially when the grid resolution increases. Here a new subbasin-based framework is introduced in the Community Land Model (CLM), which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Local processes are represented assuming each subbasin as a grid cell on a pseudo grid matrix with no significant modifications to the existing CLM modeling structure. Lateral routing of water within and between subbasins is simulated with the subbasin version of a recently-developed physically based routing model, Model for Scale Adaptive River Routing (MOSART). As an illustration, this new framework is implemented in the topographically diverse region of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The modeling units (subbasins) are delineated from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model while atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are remapped from the corresponding high resolution datasets. The impacts of this representation on simulating hydrologic processes are explored by comparing it with the default (grid-based) CLM representation. In addition, the effects of DEM resolution on parameterizing topography and the subsequent effects on runoff processes are investigated. Limited model evaluation and comparison showed that small difference between the averaged forcing can lead to more significant difference in the simulated runoff and streamflow because of nonlinear horizontal processes. Topographic indices derived from high resolution DEM may not improve the overall water balance, but affect the partitioning between surface and subsurface runoff. More systematic analyses are needed to determine the relative merits of the subbasin representation compared to the commonly used grid-based representation, especially when land surface models are approaching higher resolutions.

Subbasin-based representation, Community Land Mode↗

Model calibration of a variable refrigerant flow system with a dedicated outdoor air system: A case study

With increased use of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in the U.S. building sector, interests in capability and rationality of various building energy modeling tools to simulate VRF systems are rising. This paper presents the detailed procedures for model calibration of a VRF system with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) by comparing to detailed measured data from an occupancy emulated small office building. The building energy model is first developed based on as-built drawings, and building and system characteristics available. The whole building energy modeling tool used for the study is U.S. DOE’s EnergyPlus version 8.1. The initial model is, then, calibrated with the hourly measured data from the target building and VRF-DOAS system. In a detailed calibration procedures of the VRF-DOAS, the original EnergyPlus source code is modified to enable the modeling of the specific VRF-DOAS installed in the building. After a proper calibration during cooling and heating seasons, the VRF-DOAS model can reasonably predict the performance of the actual VRF-DOAS system based on the criteria from ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014. The calibration results show that hourly CV-RMSE and NMBE would be 15.7% and 3.8%, respectively, which is deemed to be calibrated. As a result, the whole-building energy usage after calibration of the VRF-DOAS model is 1.9% (78.8 kWh) lower than that of the measurements during comparison period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Process-Oriented Diagnostics: Principles, Practice, Community Development, and Common Standards

Process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) aim to provide feedback for model developers through model analysis based on physical hypotheses. However, the step from a diagnostic based on relationships among variables, even when hypothesis driven, to specific guidance for revising model formulation or parameterizations can be substantial. The POD may provide more information than a purely performance-based metric, but a gap between POD principles and providing actionable information for specific model revisions can remain. Furthermore, in coordinating diagnostics development, there is a trade-off between freedom for the developer, aiming to capture innovation, and near-term utility to the modeling center. Best practices that allow for the former, while conforming to specifications that aid the latter, are important for community diagnostics development that leads to tangible model improvements. Promising directions to close the gap between principles and practice include the interaction of PODs with perturbed physics experiments and with more quantitative process models as well as the inclusion of personnel from modeling centers in diagnostics development groups for immediate feedback during climate model revisions. Examples are provided, along with best-practice recommendations, based on practical experience from the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF). Common standards for metrics and diagnostics that have arisen from a collaboration between the MDTF and the Department of Energy’s Coordinated Model Evaluation Capability are advocated as a means of uniting community diagnostics efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Differential Property Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach to Experimental Design in Advanced Manufacturing

Advanced manufacturing techniques have enabled the production of materials with state-of-the-art properties. In many cases however, the development of physics-based models of these techniques lags behind their development in the lab. This means that material and process development proceeds largely via trial and error. This is sub-optimal since experiments are cost-, time-, and labor-intensive. In this work we propose a machine learning framework, differential property classification (DPC), which enables an experimenter to leverage machine learning's unparalleled pattern matching capability to pursue data-driven experimental design. DPC takes two possible experiment parameter sets and outputs a prediction of which will produce a material with a more desirable property specified by the operator. We demonstrate the success of DPC on AA7075 tube manufacturing process and mechanical property data using shear assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE), an emerging solid phase processing technology. We show that by focusing on the experimenter's need to choose between multiple candidate experimental parameters, we can reframe the challenging regression task of predicting material properties from processing parameters, into a classification task on which machine learning models can achieve good performance.

advanced manufacturing, machine learning, ShAPE↗

Oxidation kinetics for conversion of U 3 O 8 to ε-UO 3 with NO 2

The oxidation kinetics of U 3 O 8 powder to ε-UO 3 in an NO 2 environment was measured by in situ x-ray diffraction (XRD). Experiments were performed at temperatures of 195, 210, 235, and 250°C using a custom designed and fabricated sample isolation stage. Data were refined to quantify phase fractions using a newly proposed structure for the ε-UO 3 polymorph. The kinetics data were modeled using a shrinking core approach. A proposed two-step reaction process is presented based on the developed models.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Tools for Assessing Performance Project: FY2021 Quarter 4 Report

The rotatable building located at Texas Tech’s Reese Technology Center is approximately 14 m wide (width being defined as more normal to the wind than parallel), 9 m long (aligned more with the wind than perpendicular), and 4 m tall. By placing 29 sonic anemometers downwind of the building, see Fig. 1, this facility provided a chance to collect data concerning both the wake velocity deficit distribution in the downstream and crosssteam directions (relative to the mean wind) behind an isolated building. A preliminary comparison between this data and the recently- developed fast-running diffusive wake model, which was developed based on wind tunnel and LES (performed with JOULES) simulations, for the purpose of either validating this model of understanding potential persistent differences between the idealized wind tunnel or LES conditions and those of full-scale real world phenomena. For this preliminary exploration, we utilized the diffusive wake model implemented in the QUIC model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗

Predictive LES Modeling and Validation of High-Pressure Turbulent Flames and Flashback in Hydrogen-enriched Gas Turbines

The overall objective of this project is to make advances in large-eddy simulation modeling of swirl-flame flashback at elevated pressure, where the reactants can be premixed or stratified, and composed of methane enriched with hydrogen. The modeling effort was conducted with a companion experimental validation effort that focused on high-speed measurements of flashback in a model swirl-flame combustor. The modeling effort focused on the development of manifold-based combustion model for flashback simulations. The main complexity in this configuration comes from the flames’ propagation through a stratified fuel-air mixture along with heat loss near the walls. For this purpose, a non-adiabatic flamelet model was developed and tested using canonical flow configurations. Further, extensive validation in premixed configurations is used to establish the model’s accuracy in capturing heat loss and flame propagation. Finally, the model was tested using the UT flame flashback experiment, and was shown to accurately capture the flame flashback process. The end products from this work are a) a full validated flameout-based approach for modeling flame flashback; b) a complete implementation of the model in the open source OpenFOAM framework, which has been made available to both industry and academia; c) an extensive suite of validation studies performed using the OpenFOAM solver. In addition, new techniques for flame modeling, subfilter modeling of scalars, and simulation of low Mach number flows were developed and tested. In the experimental validation effort, flashback was studied in a premixed and stratified swirl flame by using high-speed imaging diagnostics. Fuels tested included CH 4 enriched with H 2 , with H 2 enrichment up to 84% by volume. These flashback experiments are conducted at pressures ranging from 1 to 5 atm. A swirler-based fuel-injection system was used to create the fuel-air stratification in the radial direction. For the high-pressure measurements, an optically accessible elevated pressure chamber was used. The spatial distribution of the equivalence ratio under non-reacting conditions was characterized using planar laser-induced fluorescence with acetone as the fuel tracer. It was observed that fuel-air pockets were distributed across the mixing tube width, although in an average sense, the fuel-air mixture was radially stratified. The global behavior of upstream flame propagation was investigated for different levels of hydrogen-enrichment. For stratified hydrogen-rich flashback, the propagation path of the flame changed from the inner wall to outer wall, which was induced by the faster chemistry of stoichiometric mixtures that are frequently present near the outer wall. This behavior of hydrogen-rich flashback persists even at elevated pressures up to 5 atm, although the propagation of the flame occurs as a wide flame tongue as opposed to the acute-tipped flame structures present in the atmospheric cases. The end product of the experimental effort is greatly improved knowledge of flashback physics and a unique database that can be used for model validation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Development of Algebraic and Topological-Based Structured Packing Model

Poster being presented at the 2024 annual AICHE meeting held from October 27-31, 2024. The poster focuses on developing an algebraic and topological model for designing structured packing for a CO2 absorption tower. The model can be optimized to determine an optimal packing structure.

Summits, Stephen↗

Novel linear analysis for a gyrotron oscillator based on a spectral approach

With the aim of gaining a better physical insight into linear regimes in gyrotrons, a new linear model was developed. This model is based on a spectral approach for solving the self-consistent system of equations describing the wave-particle interaction in the cavity of a gyrotron oscillator. Taking into account the wall-losses self-consistently and including the main system inhomogeneities in the cavity geometry and in the magnetic field, the model is appropriate to consider real system parameters. The main advantage of the spectral approach, compared with a time-dependent approach, is the possibility to describe all of the stable and unstable modes, respectively, with negative and positive growth rates. This permits to reveal the existence of a new set of eigenmodes, in addition to the usual eigenmodes issued from cold-cavity modes. The proposed model can be used for studying other instabilities such as, for instance, backward waves potentially excited in gyrotron beam tunnels.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Active learning for robust, high-complexity reactive atomistic simulations

Machine learned reactive force fields based on polynomial expansions have been shown to be highly effective for describing simulations involving reactive materials. Nevertheless, the highly flexible nature of these models can give rise to a large number of candidate parameters for complicated systems. In these cases, reliable parameterization requires a well-formed training set, which can be difficult to achieve through standard iterative fitting methods. In this paper, we present an active learning approach based on cluster analysis and inspired by Shannon information theory to enable semi-automated generation of informative training sets and robust machine learned force fields. The use of this tool is demonstrated for development of a model based on linear combinations of Chebyshev polynomials explicitly describing up to four-body interactions, for a chemically and structurally diverse system of C/O under extreme conditions. We show that this flexible training database management approach enables development of models exhibiting excellent agreement with Kohn–Sham density functional theory in terms of structure, dynamics, and speciation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty analysis of PIV measurements in bubbly flows considering sampling and bubble effects with ray optics modeling

In this report, a modeling-based approach is developed to investigate the external sources of uncertainty in particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements for two-phase bubbly flows. Primarily relied on ray optics modeling, this study focuses on the uncertainty in PIV measurements due to bubble-induced light distortion. In addition, the uncertainty due to sampling is also considered through synthetic PIV images generated from Monte Carlo sampling. Based on a PIV-planar laser induced florescence (PLIF) measurement system, three case studies are performed and discussed, considering respectively the sampling effect, bubble effect, and the combination of these two effects. These case studies confirm the validity of the ray optics modeling in obtaining accurate particle images through a benchmark test. Furthermore, it is also found that the bubble effect could significantly influence the particle images. On the other hand, the result of the case study with synthetic PIV images indicates that the bubble effect on particle images can be minimized by removing “outliers” in the obtained velocity vector field through a multi-pass post-processing procedure. However, the uncertainty of the velocity measurements will still increase.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-modal Approach to Modeling Creep Deformation in Nickel-base Superalloy

This study developed the multi-modal modeling approaches to elucidate the physical and overall mechanical properties of two complex alloy systems of Ni-based Superalloys, namely Haynes 282 and Inconel 740. The overall strategies employed systematically in different scales of modeling are based on the common structural framework of the multi phases that made up the Ni-based Superalloys, namely the matrix phase of the Gamma ($\gamma$) phase which is embedded with ordered Gamma prime ($\gamma$’) precipitates and decorated with the dispersions of mostly carbide precipitates. With this in mind, we had set up the modeling platforms to incorporate a wide range of scales, starting from electronic structures to the continuum level via the crystal plasticity model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗