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At least 379 records · Page 21

Multiple Metrics Informed Projections of Future Precipitation in China

Predicting how regional precipitation will respond to future warming is among the most challenging undertaking in climate change projection. Despite sustained efforts to improve modeling and understanding of precipitation, the overall uncertainty in projecting regional precipitation has not been reduced substantially. In this work, the potential for more robust precipitation projections is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metrics to subsample the multimodel ensemble. Using a two-dimensional metric of precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation indices in East Asia, 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected statistically significant increasing trends in precipitation and the regional precipitation patterns are more similar to each other than to the patterns in the bottom performing group. In contrast, models in the bottom performing group projected diverse responses, with overall small drying or no significant trends in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrochemical metrics for corrosion resistant alloys

Abstract Corrosion is an electrochemical phenomenon. It can occur via different modes of attack, each having its own mechanisms, and therefore there are multiple metrics for evaluating corrosion resistance. In corrosion resistant alloys (CRAs), the rate of localized corrosion can exceed that of uniform corrosion by orders of magnitude. Therefore, instead of uniform corrosion rate, more complex electrochemical parameters are required to capture the salient features of corrosion phenomena. Here, we collect a database with an emphasis on metrics related to localized corrosion. The six sections of the database include data on various metal alloys with measurements of (1) pitting potential, E pit , (2) repassivation potential, E rp , (3) crevice corrosion potential, E crev , (4) pitting temperature, T pit , (5) crevice corrosion temperature, T crev , and (6) corrosion potential, E corr , corrosion current density, i corr , passivation current density, i pass , and corrosion rate. The experimental data were collected from 85 publications and include Al- and Fe-based alloys, high entropy alloys (HEAs), and a Ni-Cr-Mo ternary system. This dataset could be used in the design of highly corrosion resistant alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring Hilbert space on a budget: Novel benchmark set and performance metric for testing electronic structure methods in the regime of strong correlation

This work explores the ability of classical electronic structure methods to efficiently represent (compress) the information content of full configuration interaction (FCI) wave functions. We introduce a benchmark set of four hydrogen model systems of different dimensionalities and distinctive electronic structures: a 1D chain, a 1D ring, a 2D triangular lattice, and a 3D close-packed pyramid. To assess the ability of a computational method to produce accurate and compact wave functions, we introduce the accuracy volume, a metric that measures the number of variational parameters necessary to achieve a target energy error. Using this metric and the hydrogen models, we examine the performance of three classical deterministic methods: (i) selected configuration interaction (sCI) realized both via an a posteriori (ap-sCI) and variational selection of the most important determinants, (ii) an a posteriori singular value decomposition (SVD) of the FCI tensor (SVD-FCI), and (iii) the matrix product state representation obtained via the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG). We find that the DMRG generally gives the most efficient wave function representation for all systems, particularly in the 1D chain with a localized basis. For the 2D and 3D systems, all methods (except DMRG) perform best with a delocalized basis, and the efficiency of sCI and SVD-FCI is closer to that of DMRG. For larger analogs of the models, the DMRG consistently requires the fewest parameters but still scales exponentially in 2D and 3D systems, and the performance of SVD-FCI is essentially equivalent to that of ap-sCI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of hohlraum cooling on ignition metrics for inertial fusion implosions

This paper extends the evaluation of ignition metrics to include the impact of hohlraum cooling before peak implosion velocity in radiation driven implosions. First, we provide an extension of the results for the key hot spot stagnation quantities from the 2018 paper. The modified analytic expressions presented here match the Hydra results for these National Ignition Facility scale implosions both with and without hohlraum cooling before peak velocity if the effective ablation pressure P abl (effective) = P abl (t pv - 0.5 ns) is used in the analytic formulas, where t pv is the time of peak implosion velocity. Second, we provide an analysis that enables a comparison of the Hydra radiation hydrodynamics code calculations utilized here with the predictions of the analytic piston model of an ICF implosion, which focused on sensitivity to time duration of the hohlraum cooling phase before peak velocity (often called the “coast time”) and the shell radius at peak velocity R pv . Third, we provide a set of ignition metrics that are valid across a wide range of capsule designs valid for implosions both with and without hohlraum cooling before peak implosion velocity is reached.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Key metrics of progress in the NIF ignition implosions and future challenges on the path to higher yields

Successful demonstration of an implosion that meets the physics metrics for ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in August 2021 and demonstration of target energy gain G > 1 in December 2022 represented the culmination of more than a decade of research on the NIF. An in-depth analysis of the key ignition metrics achieved on the NIF over the past decade shows sustained progress toward identifying and mitigating degradation effects. Ignition implosions on the NIF have progressed from early experiments whose compressed fuel conditions were degraded by a factor of 10–20 below the ignition threshold with yields of only 1%–2% of the laser energy, to current experiments that significantly exceed the ignition threshold and in the best experiments achieve yields greater than twice the laser energy. It is very likely that NIF can get more than 20 MJ of yield and possibly 50–70 MJ yields when fully optimized at an ultraviolet laser energy of 2.6 MJ following the completion of the NIF Extended Yield Capability Project. Achieving these higher yields will also require improvements to capsules at larger size and possibly with alternate materials, as well as an improved understanding of hohlraum and capsule physics. Now that NIF has achieved ignition, the design of a Next Generation High Energy Density Facility that could achieve the National Nuclear Security Administration long-term goal of substantially higher yields than the NIF can proceed with a more confident physics base. We evaluate these opportunities including possible applications for inertial fusion energy and likely challenges to achieving this level of performance over the next decade.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes

Significance The Earth has warmed by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C since the preindustrial era. The most common metric to measure the ongoing global warming is surface air temperature since it has long and reliable observational records. However, surface air temperature alone does not fully describe the nature of global warming and its impact on climate and weather extremes. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO 2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)

Abstract Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO 2 reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO 2 reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO 2 response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality ( α ) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO 2 relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency ( ϵ ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO 2 in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO 2 equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.

Yamamoto, Kana (ORCID:0009000731519234)↗

New metric improving Bayesian calibration of a multistage approach studying hadron and inclusive jet suppression

We study parton energy-momentum exchange with the quark gluon plasma (QGP) within a multistage approach composed of in-medium Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution at high virtuality, and (linearized) Boltzmann transport formalism at lower virtuality. This multistage simulation is then calibrated in comparison with high- p T charged hadrons, D mesons, and the inclusive jet nuclear modification factors, using Bayesian model-to-data comparison, to extract the virtuality-dependent transverse momentum broadening transport coefficient q ̂ . To facilitate this undertaking, we develop a quantitative metric for validating the Bayesian workflow, which is used to analyze the sensitivity of various model parameters to individual observables. The usefulness of this new metric in improving Bayesian model emulation is shown to be highly beneficial for future such analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thoughts and Hypotheses on the Metrics and Needs for the Stability of Highly Inverter-Based Island Systems

As levels of wind, photovoltaics (PVs), and battery energy storage on power systems rise, it is useful to be able to quickly compare how much generation (instantaneous power and annual energy) comes from these inverter-based resources (IBRs). A commonly used metric is the percentage of inverter-based generation (% IBR) in a dispatch scenario (as a percentage of the total generation or total load), which can be useful for estimating when certain operational challenges arise (high rates of change of frequency, underdamped control interactions, low system strength, low fault current availability, and so on). Another similar and commonly used metric pioneered on the relatively large island of Ireland, system nonsynchronous penetration (SNSP), is similar to the % IBR and is subject to similar limitations. SNSP has the advantage of handling high-voltage dc in a defined way.

fault currents↗

Accessing bands with extended quantum metric in kagome Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 through soft chemical processing

Flat bands that do not merely arise from weak interactions can produce exotic physical properties, such as superconductivity or correlated many-body effects. The quantum metric can differentiate whether flat bands will result in correlated physics or are merely dangling bonds. A potential avenue for achieving correlated flat bands involves leveraging geometrical constraints within specific lattice structures, such as the kagome lattice; however, materials are often more complex. In these cases, quantum geometry becomes a powerful indicator of the nature of bands with small dispersions. We present a simple, soft-chemical processing route to access a flat band with an extended quantum metric below the Fermi level. By oxidizing Ni-kagome material Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 to CsNi 3 S 4 , we see a two orders of magnitude drop in the room temperature resistance. However, CsNi 3 S 4 is still insulating, with no evidence of a phase transition. Using experimental data, density functional theory calculations, and symmetry analysis, our results suggest the emergence of a correlated insulating state of unknown origin.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Four metrics

A central idea in general relativity is that physics should not depend on the spacetime coordinates in use. But the qualitative description of various phenomena can appear superficially quite different. Furthermore, we consider falling into a classical black hole using four distinct but equivalent metrics. First is the Schwarzschild case, with extreme time dilation at the horizon. Second, rescaling the dilation allows falling into the hole in finite proper time. Third, time and space are rescaled into a Penrose motivated picture where light trajectories all have unit slope. Fourth, a white hole variation of the second metric allows passage out through the horizon, with reentry forbidden.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

Thermal Resilience of Buildings and Communities: A Multistakeholder Review of Metrics and Approaches

Increasing temperature-related hazards require a collective effort to assess and enhance the thermal resilience of buildings and communities to protect occupants’ safety and minimize property or infrastructure damage. However, limited coordination across stakeholders and lack of standardized procedures for resilience assessment undermine the effectiveness of extreme temperature mitigation and adaptation strategies across the building life cycle. This review examines the current literature on resilience metrics to address thermal stress and risk due to extreme indoor environments. Stakeholders of thermal resilience include architects and engineers, occupants, property owners, real estate developers, urban planners, and policymakers. Additionally, motivations for measuring thermal resilience are emphasized, such as safeguarding occupant health and survivability, protecting property, and ensuring business continuity during extreme weather events. This review provides actionable insights and identifies future research needs for enhancing resilience through tailored metrics for stakeholders during the planning, design, construction, operation, and retrofitting phases of buildings and communities.

building life cycle↗

Defining Electrode-Level Metrics for Enabling Earth-Abundant, Mn-Rich Cathodes: A Technoeconomic Analysis of Experimental Materials

Manganese-rich oxides are attractive options as next-generation, earth-abundant cathodes and significant efforts are being directed toward commercial implementation. We report here an updated techno-economic analysis of the lithium- and manganese-rich (LMR) class of earth-abundant cathodes for electric vehicle applications. BatPaC modeling was used to define the cell-level metrics that must be met for these materials to be cost and energy competitive with the current commercial earth-abundant benchmark, LiFePO 4 , as well as anticipated variations such as LiMn 0.8 Fe 0.2 PO 4 . The model was used to evaluate a high-performance material from the literature and subsequently define R&D targets as the likely limits of practical performance for similar LMR systems. Experimental validation and BatPaC evaluation of an advanced, cobalt-free LMR cell system was also conducted. Results show that the advanced LMR cells come within ∼5% of the defined limits and exceed the energy of LiFe(Mn)PO 4 cells at a similar cost. Excellent cycle-life, low impedance, and low impedance rise were also achieved under the conditions tested and reveal that cobalt is not necessary to achieve high-performance LMR oxides. Although the analysis conducted herein reports on LMR cell systems, the methodology and target values defined for performance metrics easily extend to the evaluation of other systems under consideration as earth-abundant options.

Chen, Jiajun [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

The ARM Data-oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Models - A New Tool for Evaluating Climate Models with Field Data

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program User Facility produces ground-based long-term continuous unique measurements for atmospheric state, precipitation, turbulent fluxes, radiation, aerosol, cloud and the land surface, which are collected at multiple sites. These comprehensive datasets have been widely used to calibrate climate models and are proven to be invaluable for climate model development and improvement. This article introduces an evaluation package to facilitate the use of ground-based ARM measurements in climate model evaluation. The ARM data-oriented metrics and diagnostics package (ARM-DIAGS) includes both ARM observational datasets and a Python-based analysis toolkit for computation and visualization. The observational datasets are compiled from multiple ARM data products and specifically tailored for use in climate model evaluation. In addition, ARM-DIAGS also includes simulation data from models participating the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), which will allow climate-modeling groups to compare a new, candidate version of their model to existing CMIP models. The analysis toolkit is designed to make the metrics and diagnostics quickly available to the model developers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Error metrics for partially coherent wave fields

Lensless imaging methods that account for partial coherence have become very common in the past decade. However, there are no metrics in use for comparing partially coherent light fields, despite the widespread use of such metrics to compare fully coherent objects and wave fields. Here, we show how reformulating the mean squared error and Fourier ring correlation in terms of quantum state fidelity naturally generalizes them to partially coherent wave fields. We report these results fill an important gap in the lensless imaging literature and will enable quantitative assessments of the reliability and resolution of reconstructed partially coherent wave fields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗