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At least 379 records · Page 21

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dark matter density profiles in dwarf galaxies: linking Jeans modelling systematics and observation

ABSTRACT The distribution of dark matter in dwarf galaxies can have important implications on our understanding of galaxy formation as well as the particle physics properties of dark matter. However, accurately characterizing the dark matter content of dwarf galaxies is challenging due to limited data and complex dynamics that are difficult to accurately model. In this paper, we apply spherical Jeans modelling to simulated stellar kinematic data of spherical, isotropic dwarf galaxies with the goal of identifying the future observational directions that can improve the accuracy of the inferred dark matter distributions in the Milky Way dwarf galaxies. We explore how the dark matter inference is affected by the location and number of observed stars as well as the line-of-sight velocity measurement errors. We use mock observation to demonstrate the difficulty in constraining the inner core/cusp of the dark matter distribution with data sets of fewer than 10 000 stars. We also demonstrate the need for additional measurements to make robust estimates of the expected dark matter annihilation signal strength. For the purpose of deriving robust indirect detection constraints, we identify Ursa Major II, Ursa Minor, and Draco as the systems that would most benefit from additional stars being observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration, modeling, parameterization, and verification of the instrument transfer function of an interferometric microscope

Interferometric microscopes are used to measure surface roughness, from which the computed power spectral density function can be used to extract bandwidth-limited values of the various surface properties, such as root-mean-square (rms) height and slope errors. Measurements with a microscope equipped with different objectives that have an overlapping spatial frequency range usually give different rms results over the common frequency bandwidth. This is a result of different instrument transfer functions (ITFs) that attenuate spatial frequencies by different amounts over the overlapping range. We report on the use of binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) standards to characterize the ITF of an interferometric microscope with the various objectives. We use a simple model of a 1D binary Results show that the spectrum for an undersampled array is a cosine function, rather than a straight line, constant white noise spectrum. We have an analytical model of the ITF that includes the effects of an obscured aperture and defocus, in addition to the usual parameters of numerical aperture, wavelength, and sampling period. In addition, the model includes the effect of aliasing of spatial frequency components beyond the Nyquist back into the sub-Nyquist region. We compare the model PSD predictions to the measurements performed with different objectives. Departures of the measured PSDs from the model predictions indicate that there are higher-order ITF corrections yet to be identified and included in the model.

Takacs, PZ↗

Accuracy of the O(+)-O collision cross-section deduced from ionosphere-thermosphere observations

Aeronomic observations applied to the empirical derivation of the ion-neutral collision cross-section -- a basic parameter governing the mutual interaction between the neutral and plasma components in the Earth's upper atmosphere -- have given values considerably larger than those derived from theory. The empirical scheme uses the plasma velocities obtained with the Incoherent Scatter Radar and the neutral winds obtained with the Fabry-Perot Interferometer. It is shown here that such an analysis overestimates the collision cross-section due to the effects of errors in the observables. The effect may be sufficiently large to bring about agreement with theory, and calls for a re-analysis of the aeronomic data using methods which minimize the bias caused by measurement errors.

Reddy, C. A.↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the Thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Using the Skewness of the CMB Temperature Distribution

We present a detection of the unnormalized skewness (T(sup ~)(sup 2)(n(circumflex)) induced by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect in filtered Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) 148 GHz cosmic microwave background temperature maps. Contamination due to infrared and radio sources is minimized by template subtraction of resolved sources and by constructing a mask using outlying values in the 218 GHz (tSZ-null) ACT maps. We measure (T(sup ~)(sup 3) (n(circumflex)) = -31 plus or minus 6 micro-K(sup 3) (measurement error only) or plus or minus 14 micro-K(sup 3) (including cosmic variance error) in the filtered ACT data, a 5sigma detection. We show that the skewness is a sensitive probe of sigma(sub 8), and use analytic calculations and tSZ simulations to obtain cosmological constraints from this measurement. From this signal alone we infer a value of sigma(sub 8) = 0.78 sup +0.03 sub -0.04 (68% C.L.) sup +0.05 sub -0.16. Our results demonstrate that measurements of nonGaussianity can be a useful method for characterizing the tSZ effect and extracting the underlying cosmological information.

Wilson, Michael J.↗

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗

A Sulfur Dioxide Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA): Application to TROPOMI Reveals New Emission Sources

Sensitive and accurate detection of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) from space is important for monitoring and estimating global sulfur emissions. Inspired by detection methods applied in the thermal infrared, we present here a new scheme to retrieve SO 2 columns from satellite observations of ultraviolet back-scattered radiances. The retrieval is based on a measurement error covariance matrix to fully represent the SO 2 -free radiance variability, so that the SO 2 slant column density is the only retrieved parameter of the algorithm. We demonstrate this approach, named COBRA, on measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) satellite. We show that the method reduces significantly both the noise and biases present in the current TROPOMI operational DOAS SO 2 retrievals. The performance of this technique is also benchmarked against that of the Principal Component Algorithm (PCA) approach. We find that the quality of the data is similar and even slightly better with the proposed COBRA approach. The ability of the algorithm to retrieve SO 2 accurately is also further supported by comparison with ground-based observations. We illustrate the great sensitivity of the method with a high-resolution global SO 2 map, considering two and a half years of TROPOMI data. In addition to the known sources, we detect many new SO 2 emission hotspots worldwide. For the largest sources, we use the COBRA data to estimate SO 2 emission rates. Results are comparable to other recently published TROPOMI-based SO 2 emissions estimates, but the associated uncertainties are significantly lower than with the operational data. Next, for a limited number of weak sources, we demonstrate the potential of our data for quantifying SO 2 emissions with a detection limit of about 8 kt yr -1 , a factor of 4 better than the emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We anticipate that the systematic use of our TROPOMI COBRA SO 2 column data set at a global scale will allow identifying and quantifying missing sources, and help improving SO 2 emission inventories.

SO2↗

Rotor dynamic state and parameter identification from simulated forward flight transients, part 1

State and parameter identifications from simulated forward flight blade flapping measurements are presented. The transients were excited by progressing cyclic pitch stirring or by hub stirring with constant stirring acceleration. Rotor dynamic inflow models of varying degree of sophistication were used from a one parameter inflow model (equivalent Lock number) to an eight parameter inflow model. The maximum likelihood method with assumed fixed measurement error covariance matrix was applied. The rotor system equations for both fixed hub and tilting hub are given. The identified models were verified by comparing true responses with predicted responses. An optimum utilization of the simulated measurement data can be defined. From the numerical results it can be anticipated that brief periods of either accelerated cyclic pitch stirring or of hub stirring are sufficient to extract with adequate accuracy up to 8 rotor dynamic inflow parameters plus the blade Lock number from the transients.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗

Statistical and computational uncertainties in atmospheric profiles from radio occultation - Mariner 10 at Venus

Statistical error in Mariner 10 occultation profiles is traced from initial observations to reduced temperature, pressure, and absorption profiles. It is shown that for the Mariner 10 profile with a height of resolution of 0.1 km, statistical measurement errors lead to uncertainties in temperature that are less than 2 K at all altitudes considered and are typically less than 0.5 K. Attention is also given to uncertainties in pressure and atmospheric absorption. In addition it is found that there is also a systematic error in the reduction of two-way data that arises from the parallax between the uplink and downlink ray paths. Finally, it is concluded that if the systematic error can be reduced to the level of the statistical noise in Mariner 10, then long term studies of thick atmospheres by occultation techniques will be feasible in the future at good levels of accuracy.

Lipa, B.↗

Determination of aerosol content in the atmosphere from ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Significant results, relating the radiance over water surfaces to the atmospheric aerosol content, have been obtained. The results indicate that the MSS channels 4, 5, and 6 centered at 0.55, 0.65, and 0.75 microns have comparable sensitivity, and that the aerosol content can be determined within + or - 10% with the assumed measurement errors of the MSS. The fourth channel, MSS 7, is not useful for aerosol determination due to the water radiance values from this channel generally being less than the instrument noise. The accuracy of the aerosol content measurement could be increased by using an instrument specifically designed for this purpose. This radiance-aerosol content relationship can possibly provide a basis for monitoring the atmospheric aerosol content on a global basis, allowing a base-line value of aerosols to be established. The contrast-aerosol content investigation shows useful linear relationships in MSS channels 4 and 5, allowing the aerosol content to be determined within + or - 10%. MSS 7 is not useful due to the low accuracy in the water radiance, and MSS 6 is found to be too insensitive. These results rely on several assumptions due to the lack of ground truth data, but do serve to indicate which channels are most useful.

Griggs, M.↗

High-frequency variations in Earth rotation and the planetary momentum budget

The major focus of the subject contract was on helping to resolve one of the more notable discrepancies still existing in the axial momentum budget of the solid Earth-atmosphere system, namely the disappearance of coherence between length-of-day (l.o.d.) and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) at periods shorter than about a fortnight. Recognizing the importance of identifying the source of the high-frequency momentum budget anomaly, the scientific community organized two special measurement campaigns (SEARCH '92 and CONT '94) to obtain the best possible determinations of l.o.d. and AAM. An additional goal was to analyze newly developed estimates of the torques that transfer momentum between the atmosphere and its underlying surface to determine whether the ocean might be a reservoir of momentum on short time scales. Discrepancies between AAM and l.o.d. at sub-fortnightly periods have been attributed to either measurement errors in these quantities or the need to incorporate oceanic angular momentum into the planetary budget. Results from the SEARCH '92 and CONT '94 campaigns suggest that when special attention is paid to the quality of the measurements, better agreement between l.o.d. and AAM at high frequencies can be obtained. The mechanism most responsible for the high-frequency changes observed in AAM during these campaigns involves a direct coupling to the solid Earth, i.e, the mountain torque, thereby obviating a significant oceanic role.

Rosen, Richard D.↗

Robust Controller Synthesis for Vision-based Spacecraft Guidance and Control

This work develops a method for Robust Controller for Vision-based Spacecraft (RCVS) guidance and control, integral to the robust autonomy framework for multi-spacecraft for- mation control and reconfiguration applications. The method is built around the use of a photo-realistic simulator, where a camera is deployed on a tracking spacecraft (ego) in order to observe an uncontrolled spacecraft (target) in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In this direction, the proposed approach performs the relative state (attitude and position) estimation of the target spacecraft using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The state estimation error is then modeled and the corresponding error-bounds are obtained around a nominal trajectory of the ego and target spacecraft. Next, this work proposes a linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) based approach to controller synthesis, guaranteed to be robust against both model uncertainties and measurement errors, resulting from vision-based estimation. This controller is comprised of two distinct components, one synthesized based on the nominal trajectory, while the “robust” component corrects for deviations from the nominal trajectory. Finally, a tracking scenario that directly utilize the image data for spacecraft guidance and control, is presented to showcase the performance of the proposed robust autonomy framework.

Rahmani, Amir↗

Effect of nonideal square-law detection on static calibration in noise-injection radiometers

The effect of nonideal square-law detection on the static calibration for a class of Dicke radiometers is examined. It is shown that fourth-order curvature in the detection characteristic adds a nonlinear term to the linear calibration relationship normally ascribed to noise-injection, balanced Dicke radiometers. The minimum error, based on an optimum straight-line fit to the calibration curve, is derived in terms of the power series coefficients describing the input-output characteristics of the detector. These coefficients can be determined by simple measurements, and detection nonlinearity is, therefore, quantitatively related to radiometric measurement error.

Hearn, C. P.↗

Flight evaluation of differential GPS aided inertial navigation systems

Algorithms are described for integration of Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) data with Inertial Navigation System (INS) data to provide an integrated DGPS/INS navigation system. The objective is to establish the benefits that can be achieved through various levels of integration of DGPS with INS for precision navigation. An eight state Kalman filter integration was implemented in real-time on a twin turbo-prop transport aircraft to evaluate system performance during terminal approach and landing operations. A fully integrated DGPS/INS system is also presented which models accelerometer and rate-gyro measurement errors plus position, velocity, and attitude errors. The fully integrated system was implemented off-line using range-domain (seventeen-state) and position domain (fifteen-state) Kalman filters. Both filter integration approaches were evaluated using data collected during the flight test. Flight-test data consisted of measurements from a 5 channel Precision Code GPS receiver, a strap-down Inertial Navigation Unit (INU), and GPS satellite differential range corrections from a ground reference station. The aircraft was laser tracked to determine its true position. Results indicate that there is no significant improvement in positioning accuracy with the higher levels of DGPS/INS integration. All three systems provided high-frequency (e.g., 20 Hz) estimates of position and velocity. The fully integrated system provided estimates of inertial sensor errors which may be used to improve INS navigation accuracy should GPS become unavailable, and improved estimates of acceleration, attitude, and body rates which can be used for guidance and control. Precision Code DGPS/INS positioning accuracy (root-mean-square) was 1.0 m cross-track and 3.0 m vertical. (This AGARDograph was sponsored by the Guidance and Control Panel.)

Mcnally, B. David↗

Performance Comparison of Circular and Spherical Error Probable Estimators

This report compares the performance of three Circular Error Probable (CEP) estimators: the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator, a new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator, and a median estimator. It also compares the performance of two Spherical Error Probable (SEP) estimators. The performance of each estimator is assessed in terms of bias, uncertainty, robustness, and computational complexity. Robustness is evaluated with respect to outliers, variations in the underlying statistical distribution characterizing munition impact positions, and impact-position measurement errors. The performance assessments indicate the radial-integration and Grubbs-Patnaik estimators perform nearly identically providing the statistical distribution of impact-position coordinates is jointly normal with zero means. In that case, both estimators outperform the median estimator by about 2% relative to the true CEP in terms of estimator uncertainty. The bias performance of the radial-integration and median estimators is close to zero for jointly normal impacts, however, the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator can be significantly biased for jointly normal impacts with non-zero means. When the statistical distribution characterizing impact positions is known, but not jointly normal, the radial-integration estimator is superior. In this case, the median estimator also outperforms the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator but is not quite as good as the radial-integration estimator. If the statistical distribution characterizing impacts is unknown and not jointly normal, or if distribution parameters are difficult or impractical to estimate, or if test data is corrupted with outliers, then the median estimator dramatically outperforms the other estimators, especially in terms of estimation bias. Unexpectedly, measurement noise did not significantly degrade the performance of any of the estimators, except for cases with signal to noise ratios less than five. Although the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator has remained the gold standard for CEP estimation for over half a century, the performance assessments indicate the new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator and the median estimator offer significant advantages and, in most practical real-world conditions, are superior estimators. These estimators are also useful for SEP estimation whereas the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator does not extend to three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Terminal guidance and navigation for comet and asteroid rendezvous

A terminal guidance and navigation scheme developed in earlier work was modified and evaluated for a solar electric propulsion rendezvous mission to comet Encke. The scheme is intended for autonomous, on-board use. The guidance algorithm is based on optimal control theory and minimizes the time integrated square of thrust acceleration. The navigation algorithm employs a modified Kalman filter set in measurement variables. Random sequences were generated to simulate measurement errors, and the evaluation was conducted with detailed numerical computations which include actual motions of spacecraft and comet. The evaluations showed that the scheme attains rendezvous and maintains station after rendezvous within less than 10 km for estimated best measurements and within less than 100 km for estimated worst measurements. The measurements required are angles, range, and range rate. Angles and range appear to be absolutely necessary; range rate is not as strong a measurement type, and further modifications of the filter will allow a scheme that does not require the rate measurements.

Bennett, A. G.↗

Consideration for high accuracy radiation efficiency measurements for the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) subarrays

The transmit beam and radiation efficiency for 10 metersquare subarray panels were quantified. Measurement performance potential of far field elevated and ground reflection ranges and near field technique were evaluated. The state-of-the-art of critical components and/or unique facilities required was identified. Relative cost, complexity and performance tradeoffs were performed for techniques capable of achieving accuracy objectives. It is considered that because of the large electrical size of the SPS subarray panels and the requirement for high accuracy measurements, specialized measurement facilities are required. Most critical measurement error sources have been identified for both conventional far field and near field techniques. Although the adopted error budget requires advances in state-of-the-art of microwave instrumentation, the requirements appear feasible based on extrapolation from today's technology. Additional performance and cost tradeoffs need to be completed before the choice of the preferred measurement technique is finalized.

Kozakoff, D. J.↗

LANDSAT-4 horizon scanner full orbit data averages

Averages taken over full orbit data spans of the pitch and roll residual measurement errors of the two conical Earth sensors operating on the LANDSAT 4 spacecraft are described. The variability of these full orbit averages over representative data throughtout the year is analyzed to demonstrate the long term stability of the sensor measurements. The data analyzed consist of 23 segments of sensor measurements made at 2 to 4 week intervals. Each segment is roughly 24 hours in length. The variation of full orbit average as a function of orbit within a day as a function of day of year is examined. The dependence on day of year is based on association the start date of each segment with the mean full orbit average for the segment. The peak-to-peak and standard deviation values of the averages for each data segment are computed and their variation with day of year are also examined.

Stanley, J. P.↗