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At least 379 records · Page 21

Trends in Europe Storm Surge Extremes Match the Rate of Sea-level Rise

Coastal communities across the world are already feeling the disastrous impacts of climate change through variations in extreme sea levels1. These variations reflect the combined effect of sea-level rise and changes in storm surge activity. Understanding the relative importance of these two factors in altering the likelihood of extreme events is crucial to the success of coastal adaptation measures. Existing analyses of tide gauge records agree that sea-level rise has been a considerable driver of trends in sea-level extremes since at least 1960. However, the contribution from changes in storminess remains unclear, owing to the difficulty of inferring this contribution from sparse data and the consequent inconclusive results that have accumulated in the literature. Here we analyse tide gauge observations using spatial Bayesian methods to show that, contrary to current thought, trends in surge extremes and sea-level rise both made comparable contributions to the overall change in extreme sea levels in Europe since 1960 . We determine that the trend pattern of surge extremes reflects the contributions from a dominant north–south dipole associated with internal climate variability and a single-sign positive pattern related to anthropogenic forcing. Our results demonstrate that both external and internal influences can considerably affect the likelihood of surge extremes over periods as long as 60 years, suggesting that the current coastal planning practice of assuming stationary surge extremes might be inadequate.

Francisco M Calafat↗

The breakup of a long-period comet is not a likely match to the Chicxulub impactor

Since the discovery of Ir in the clay layer at the K-Pg boundary, scientists have sought to constrain the origin of the extraterrestrial impactor that triggered the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other species. While the first proposal was for an asteroid, for a while some theories invoked a cometary impactor to explain perceived periodicities in mass extinctions. Such models have long been disfavored by the mass of Ir in the layer, inferred to be 2.0−2.8×10^(11)cu.g. The size of the Chicxulub crater leads to an estimated asteroid impactor diameter, D≈10km. Comets typically impact at higher speeds, reducing the impactor mass for the same impact energy. Although it is increasingly recognized that a continuum exists between comets and asteroids, ’comets’ are considered to be more ice-rich (estimates for 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are about 20%;), implying lower Ir contents per impactor mass. A carbonaceous chondrite-like asteroid of the appropriate size would likely deliver ≈2.3×10^(11)g of Ir, in the center of the estimated mass range of the global Ir layer; but a comet would only deliver ∼0.1×10^(11)g, because it would be less massive. Although these conclusions are long standing, Siraj and Loeb have recently argued anew in favor of a comet over an asteroid, based on dynamical and geochemical evidence. Here we demonstrate that their arguments are based on misinterpretations of the literature, and that an asteroid is in fact still highly favored over a comet.

Steven J. Desch↗

The breakup of a long-period comet is not a likely match to the Chicxulub impactor

Since the discovery of Ir in the clay layer at the K-Pg boundary [1], scientists have sought to constrain the origin of the extraterrestrial impactor that triggered the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other species. While the first proposal was for an asteroid, for a while some theories invoked a cometary impactor to explain perceived periodicities in mass extinctions. Such models have long been disfavored by the mass of Ir in the layer, inferred to be2.0−2.8×1011g. The size of Chicxulub crater leads to an estimated asteroid impactor diameter,D≈10 km. Comets typically impact at higher speeds, reducing the impactor mass for the same impact energy. Although it is increasingly recognized that a continuum exists between comets and asteroids, ’comets’ are considered to be more ice-rich (estimates for67P/ Churyumov-Gerasimenko are about 20%;), implying lower Ir contents per impactor mass. A carbonaceous chondrite-like asteroid of the appropriate size would likely deliver≈2.3×1011gof Ir, in the center of the estimated mass range of the global Ir layer; but a comet would only deliver∼0.1×1011g, because it would be less massive. Although these conclusions are long standing, Siraj & Loeb have recently argued anew in favor of a comet over an asteroid, based on dynamical and geochemical evidence. Here we demonstrate that their arguments are based on misinterpretations of the literature, and that an asteroid is in fact still highly favored over a comet.

Steven J Desch↗

Passive Charge Dissipating Work Function Matching Coating for Reducing Adhesion of Lunar Dust

The NASA Glenn Research Center Environmental Effects and Coatings Branch is developing a passive coating for lunar dust mitigation. This simple, transparent, conductive coating will be capable of reducing lunar dust adhesion to surfaces and dissipating surface charge. Anticipated benefits include compatibility with active dust mitigation strategies, improved efficiency and performance of solar cells and thermal control surfaces, and protection of astronauts and equipment on the lunar surface.

Lunar dust↗