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At least 379 records · Page 21

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗

Incorporating the Acclimation of Photosynthesis and Leaf Respiration in the Noah‐MP Land Surface Model: Model Development and Evaluation

Abstract Realistic simulation of leaf photosynthetic and respiratory processes is needed for accurate prediction of the global carbon cycle. These two processes systematically acclimate to long‐term environmental changes by adjusting photosynthetic and respiratory traits (e.g., the maximum photosynthetic capacity at 25°C ( V cmax,25 ) and the leaf respiration rate at 25°C ( R 25 )) following increasingly well‐understood principles. While some land surface models (LSMs) now account for thermal acclimation, they do so by assigning empirical parameterizations for individual plant functional types (PFTs). Here, we have implemented an Eco‐Evolutionary Optimality (EEO)‐based scheme to represent the universal acclimation of photosynthesis and leaf respiration to multiple environmental effects, and that therefore requires no PFT‐specific parameterizations, in a standard version of the widely used LSM, Noah MP. We evaluated model performance with plant trait data from a 5‐year experiment and extensive global field measurements, and carbon flux measurements from FLUXNET2015. We show that observed R 25 and V cmax,25 vary substantially both temporally and spatially within the same PFT ( C.V. >20%). Our EEO‐based scheme captures 62% of the temporal and 70% of the spatial variations in V cmax,25 (73% and 54% of the variations in R 25 ). The standard scheme underestimates gross primary production by 10% versus 2% for the EEO‐based scheme and generates a larger spread in r (correlation coefficient) across flux sites (0.79 ± 0.16 vs. 0.84 ± 0.1, mean ± S.D.). The standard scheme greatly overestimates canopy respiration (bias: ∼200% vs. 8% for the EEO scheme), resulting in less CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach thus simulates climate‐carbon coupling more realistically, with fewer parameters.

Ren, Yanghang [Department of Earth System Science ↗

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Abstract Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite‐derived vegetation index data and supporting tree‐ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi‐arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region‐ and biome‐dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non‐dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate‐specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrological Land Surface Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is one of twelveNASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distributedata from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range ofremotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to usersworldwide. This presentation, focusing on hydrological land surface data, provides a summary tablefor the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗

Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was used.

Yasunari, Tppei J.↗

Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72‐hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

Kabuchanga, Eric↗

Interactive Computing and Processing of NASA Land Surface Observations Using Google Earth Engine

Google's Earth Engine offers a "big data" approach to processing large volumes of NASA and other remote sensing products. h\ps://earthengine.google.com/ Interfaces include a Javascript or Python-based API, useful for accessing and processing over large periods of record for Landsat and MODIS observations. Other data sets are frequently added, including weather and climate model data sets, etc. Demonstrations here focus on exploratory efforts to perform land surface change detection related to severe weather, and other disaster events.

earth engine↗

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

Development and Testing of Coupled Land-surface, PBL and Shallow/Deep Convective Parameterizations within the MM5

The objective of this investigation was to study the role of shallow convection on the regional water cycle of the Mississippi and Little Washita Basins using a 3-D mesoscale model, the PSUINCAR MM5. The underlying premise of the project was that current modeling of regional-scale climate and moisture cycles over the continents is deficient without adequate treatment of shallow convection. It was hypothesized that an improved treatment of the regional water cycle can be achieved by using a 3-D mesoscale numerical model having a detailed land-surface parameterization, an advanced boundary-layer parameterization, and a more complete shallow convection parameterization than are available in most current models. The methodology was based on the application in the MM5 of new or recently improved parameterizations covering these three physical processes. Therefore, the work plan focused on integrating, improving, and testing these parameterizations in the MM5 and applying them to study water-cycle processes over the Southern Great Plains (SGP): (1) the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) described by Wetzel and Boone; (2) the 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-predicting scheme of Shafran et al.; and (3) the hybrid-closure sub-grid shallow convection parameterization of Deng. Each of these schemes has been tested extensively through this study and the latter two have been improved significantly to extend their capabilities.

Stauffer, David R.↗

Resolve the Clear-Sky Continuous Diurnal Cycle of High-Resolution ECOSTRESS Evapotranspiration and Land Surface Temperature

Although numerous evapotranspiration (ET) estimates have been developed from remote sensing measurements, a diurnally resolved product with high spatial resolution (<100 m) is still lacking, which is critically needed for agricultural and ecological monitoring. The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) provides, for the first time, ET at 70 m resolution with diurnal samplings, enabling a step toward filling this data gap. This study developed the first framework to resolve the full diurnal cycle of ET and Land Surface Temperature (LST) from sporadic ECOSTRESS measurements. We first constructed 70 m diurnal LST utilizing a diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) model that fused ECOSTRESS and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) LST. Next, we derived 70 m diurnal ET from the diurnally resolved LST, along with ancillary meteorological and reflectance data sets, using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) algorithm. This framework was tested in two regions: A relatively homogeneous semiarid grassland landscape (centered at the US-Seg Ameriflux site) and a heterogeneous humid cropland landscape (centered at US-ARM). Our diurnally resolved LST and ET successfully reproduced the spatial patterns in the native ECOSTRESS measurements during overpasses for both landscapes (LST: r > 0.97, RMSE ~2°C; ET: r > 0.99, and RMSE = 1–7 W m -2 ). The constructed time series also well captured the temporal variability of the in situ measurements (especially under clear-sky conditions) at both US-Seg and US-ARM, albeit performance varying with availability and quality of ECOSTRESS samples. This study sets the stage for testing and applying our framework to broader climates, biomes, and landscapes toward eventually generating diurnally resolved 70 m global operational LST/ET products to enhance ecological/agricultural applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Philadelphia Health & Air Quality: Assessing Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Compounding Vulnerability Factors to Identify High Priority Areas for Cooling Initiatives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the US, with heat-related hospitalizations increasing by 2-5% between 2001-2010. In Philadelphia alone, 137 heat-related deaths were recorded between 2010-2018, while a total of 18 daily temperature records have been set since 2010. Temperature is relatively higher in cities compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect.This effect exaggerates daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime heat retention in urban areas, which increases heat exposure inurban environments and especially impacts vulnerable populations. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is determined by a combination of risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and preexisting health conditions. This project supported the Philadelphia Department of Public Health and Office of Sustainability by identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, such as heat danger educational outreach and urban tree planting. The team developed heat vulnerability scores for each census tract within Philadelphia. Remotely sensed land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference water index, and albedo data were calculated from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor instruments. These variables were weighted against socioeconomic variables and preexisting health conditions using a principal component analysis. A total of 74 census tracts clustered were identified as high-risk areas for heat-related illnesses. 15 of these census tracts also had very low tree density (lower 20th percentile) and should be targeted for tree planting initiatives. The findings of this project will help target interventions to mitigate heat-related health issues and improve the overall wellness of Philadelphia residents.

Health & Air Quality↗

Philadelphia Health & Air Quality: Assessing Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Compounding Vulnerability Factors to Identify High Priority Areas for Cooling Initiatives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the US, with heat-related hospitalizations increasing by 2-5% between 2001-2010. In Philadelphia alone, 137 heat-related deaths were recorded between 2010-2018, while a total of 18 daily temperature records have been set since 2010. Temperature is relatively higher in cities compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This effect exaggerates daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime heat retention in urban areas, which increases heat exposure in urban environments and especially impacts vulnerable populations. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is determined by a combination of risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and preexisting health conditions. This project supported the Philadelphia Department of Public Health and Office of Sustainability by identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, such as heat danger educational outreach and urban tree planting. The team developed heat vulnerability scores for each census tract within Philadelphia. Remotely sensed land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference water index, and albedo data were calculated from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor instruments. These variables were weighted against socioeconomic variables and preexisting health conditions using a principal component analysis. A total of 74 census tracts clustered were identified as high-risk areas for heat-related illnesses. 15 of these census tracts also had very low tree density (lower 20th percentile) and should be targeted for tree planting initiatives. The findings of this project will help target interventions to mitigate heat-related health issues and improve the overall wellness of Philadelphia residents.

Health & Air Quality↗

Global land-surface primary productivity based upon Nimbus-7 37 GHz data

Accumulation and renewal of organic matter as quantified through net primary productivity (NPP) is considered a very major function of the biosphere, and its estimation is crucial in understanding the carbon cycle. A physically-based model relating NPP to the difference of vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures (Delta T) observed at 37 GHz frequency of the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on board the Nimbus-7 satellite is used for fitting areally averaged values of NPP and Delta T for five biomes. The land-surface NPP within 80 deg N to 55 deg S is then calculated using the Delta T data and compared with other estimates.

Choudhury, B. J.↗