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374 records · Page 21

The Functional Task Test (FTT): An Interdisciplinary Testing Protocol to Investigate the Factors Underlying Changes in Astronaut Functional Performance

Exposure to space flight causes adaptations in multiple physiological systems including changes in sensorimotor, cardiovascular, and neuromuscular systems. These changes may affect a crewmember s ability to perform critical mission tasks immediately after landing on a planetary surface. The overall goal of this project is to determine the effects of space flight on functional tests that are representative of high priority exploration mission tasks and to identify the key underlying physiological factors that contribute to decrements in performance. To achieve this goal we developed an interdisciplinary testing protocol (Functional Task Test, FTT) that evaluates both astronaut functional performance and related physiological changes. Functional tests include ladder climbing, hatch opening, jump down, manual manipulation of objects and tool use, seat egress and obstacle avoidance, recovery from a fall and object translation tasks. Physiological measures include assessments of postural and gait control, dynamic visual acuity, fine motor control, plasma volume, orthostatic intolerance, upper- and lower-body muscle strength, power, endurance, control, and neuromuscular drive. Crewmembers perform this integrated test protocol before and after short (Shuttle) and long-duration (ISS) space flight. Data are collected on two sessions before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only) and 1, 6 and 30 days after landing. Preliminary results from both Shuttle and ISS crewmembers indicate decrement in performance of the functional tasks after both short and long-duration space flight. On-going data collection continues to improve the statistical power required to map changes in functional task performance to alterations in physiological systems. The information obtained from this study will be used to design and implement countermeasures that specifically target the physiological systems most responsible for the altered functional performance associated with space flight.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Implementation of Human System Integration Workshop at NASA for Human Spaceflight

The human is a key element in the complex system of systems underlying space exploration missions. As a critical system, its operating bands and requirements need to be characterized and integrated with other systems. Optimal integration of the human system with hardware and software elements has an impact on multiple aspects of mission execution, including human health and performance, risk mitigation, effective design and functionality, enhanced safety, and reduced lifecycle costs. The field of Human Systems Integration (HSI) represents an interdisciplinary and comprehensive cross-cutting approach encompassing technical and management processes for integrating human as a system consideration and objective within and across all other system components and multiple domains. In addition to human activities, HSI covers training, operations and support dimensions. Moreover, HSI is an essential enabler to systems engineering practice, emphasizing human system aspects toward optimizing fully integrated system of systems performance while systematically infusing the needs of all users during the earliest stages of development. Consistent with the National Space Exploration Campaign, NASA is developing the Gateway, a lunar orbiting platform that will serve as astronaut habitat, support transit to deep space, validate new technologies and systems, and function as a science laboratory and communications hub, among other uses. It is an essential element of a phase that will extend human exploration into deep space through evolvable infrastructure and advanced technology, supporting assembly and logistics of other exploration architecture elements. In an effort to explore the current status and forward plan of HSI implementation in the mission (system of systems) lifecycle, the HSI Employee Resource Group conducted an HSI workshop using the Gateway Program as a case study. It revealed how different organizations at the Johnson Space Center incorporate HSI in their processes in preparation for the development and operation of the Gateway. The workshop focused on HSI methodology for implementation of the six NASA HSI domains: Human Factors Engineering, Operations Resources, Habitability and Environment, Maintainability and Supportability, Safety, and Training. Results from the workshop are reported on this paper, as well as some historical background of HSI at NASA, and the success in using an Employee Resource Group to promote technical knowledge. The authors hope that this information can be used to disseminate best practices for translational applications to other space exploration systems.

Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne↗

Implementation of Human System Integration Workshop at NASA for Human Spaceflight

The human is a key element in the complex system of systems underlying space exploration missions. As a critical system, its operating bands and requirements need to be characterized and integrated with other systems. Optimal integration of the human system with hardware and software elements has an impact on multiple aspects of mission execution, including human health and performance, risk mitigation, effective design and functionality, enhanced safety, and reduced lifecycle costs. The field of Human Systems Integration (HSI) represents an interdisciplinary and comprehensive cross-cutting approach encompassing technical and management processes for integrating human as a system consideration and objective within and across all other system components and multiple domains. In addition to human activities, HSI covers training, operations and support dimensions. Moreover, HSI is an essential enabler to systems engineering practice, emphasizing human system aspects toward optimizing fully integrated system of systems performance while systematically infusing the needs of all users during the earliest stages of development. Consistent with the National Space Exploration Campaign, NASA is developing the Gateway, a lunar orbiting platform that will serve as astronaut habitat, support transit to deep space, validate new technologies and systems, and function as a science laboratory and communications hub, among other uses. It is an essential element of a phase that will extend human exploration into deep space through evolvable infrastructure and advanced technology, supporting assembly and logistics of other exploration architecture elements. In an effort to explore the current status and forward plan of HSI implementation in the mission (system of systems) lifecycle, the HSI Employee Resource Group conducted an HSI workshop using the Gateway Program as a case study. It revealed how different organizations at the Johnson Space Center incorporate HSI in their processes in preparation for the development and operation of the Gateway. The workshop focused on HSI methodology for implementation of the six NASA HSI domains: Human Factors Engineering, Operations Resources, Habitability and Environment, Maintainability and Supportability, Safety, and Training. Results from the workshop are reported on this paper, as well as some historical background of HSI at NASA, and the success in using an Employee Resource Group to promote technical knowledge. The authors hope that this information can be used to disseminate best practices for translational applications to other space exploration systems.

Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne↗

Clouds and Radiation from the Earth Observing System

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. During this year, four EOS science missions are scheduled for launch, representing observations of (i) total solar irradiance, (ii) Earth radiation budget, (iii) land cover & land use change, (iv) ocean processes (vector wind, sea surface temperature, and ocean color), (v) atmospheric processes (aerosol and cloud properties, water vapor, and temperature and moisture profiles), and (vi) tropospheric chemistry. In succeeding years many more satellites will be launched that will contribute immeasurably to our understanding of the Earth's environment. In this presentation we will describe how scientists are using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), an earth-viewing cross-track scanning spectroradiometer on the Terra (AM-1) satellite, for the remote sensing of cloud and aerosol properties. MODIS scans a swath width sufficient to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from a polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 km, and provides images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14.235 pm with spatial resolutions of 250 m (2 bands), 500 m (5 bands) and 1000 m (29 bands). These bands have been carefully selected to enable advanced studies of land, ocean, and atmosphere processes.

King, Michael D.↗

Implementation of sensor and control designs for bioregenerative systems

The EGM 4000/4001 Engineering Design class is an interdisciplinary design course that allows students to experience the design process. The projects involved the design of sensors and subsystems of a closed-loop life support system (CLLSS) with special emphasis on the Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) currently being developed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) by NASA. To understand the work performed by the students, one must understand the purpose and concept of a CLLSS system. In the years to come, NASA will be constructing Moon bases and sending astronauts to other worlds on extended space missions. In order to support the crews, unreasonably large quantities of supplies would have to be sent from Earth. These supplies would be difficult to transport and require large holds. To remedy this problem, NASA plans to incorporate crops into the spacecraft. These crops would supply food for the crews, as well as provide beneficial psychological side effects. In addition, the plants would recycle the air and human waste and provide oxygen and water for the humans. The students in the design class were to work on supporting this project. In order to do this successfully, the course was separated into two phases. The first semester involved studying the various aspects of a CLLSS to determine sensing needs and develop ideas. The second semester involved first determining which of the ideas were most promising. Specific sensors were then designed and tested under laboratory conditions with promising results. Finally, recommendations for further development were proposed. Atmosphere and temperature control, nutrient delivery, plant health and propagation, and resource recycling are discussed.

Source record↗

New developments in space radiation research at NASA: Annotating data using a novel radiation biology ontology

Like many interdisciplinary sciences, data producers and consumers in the field of radiation biology often use a wide variety of terminology to describe their experiments and data. Furthermore, space systems and technologies are rapidly evolving, and a shared understanding and common terminology for these is also lacking. The efficiency of research organizations can be enhanced by standardizing metadata through the use of knowledge resources like ontologies. Employing a sophisticated model such as a formal ontology to standardize metadata enables automated data acquisition processes and supports more complete, accurate meta-analysis through more efficient and complete data discovery and retrieval, particularly when using multiple data sources. Thus, we developed the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO) in order to improved radiation biology metadata uniformity and transparency. We used open-source software (the Ontology Development Kit, Protégé and WebProtégé) and worked within the OBO Foundry framework, which includes a set of ontology development principles and practices for ontology consistency, uniformity, and accountability. The RBO has now been incorporated into two radiation research data repositories, NASA’s GeneLab omics database (https://genelab.nasa.gov), and the European Commission STORE database (https://www.storedb.org/). Continuous build integration tools allowed our international RBO collaboration to be more efficient and focus its efforts on semantic model design. Currently, the RBO contains over 300 annotated classes and individuals specific to the study of radiation on biological systems, as well as imports of many additional classes from other OBO Foundry ontologies that relate to and/or provide context for these RBO entities. We publish the RBO through the OBO Foundry, so that it is available for browsing, download, and querying through NCBI Bioportal web site and application programming interface. The NASA Ames Life Science Data Archive (ALSDA) is also in the process of adopting use of the RBO, taking NASA one step closer to a knowledge-based system for space biology data. It is our hope that the global communities of radiation research Investigators, data curators and data analysts can similarly leverage the RBO and will contribute to its further development.

radiation↗

Conference Summary

Celebrations and special events were in order this year as the Minority University-Space Interdisciplinary Network (MU-SPIN) Program and NASA's Minority University Research and Education Division (MURED) both reached their 10th anniversaries. In honor of this occasion, the 2000 Annual Users' Conference held at Morris Brown College (MBC) in Atlanta, Georgia, September 11-15, 2000, was the first to be jointly hosted by MU-SPIN and MURED. It was particularly fitting that this anniversary should fall in the year 2000. The start of the new millennium propelled us to push bold new ideas and renew our commitment to minority university participation in all areas of NASA. With the theme 'Celebrating Our Tenth Year With Our Eyes on the Prize,' the conference provided a national forum for showcasing successful MU-SPIN and MURED Program (MUREP) experiences to enhance faculty/student development in areas of scientific and technical research and education. Our NASA-relevant conference agenda resulted in a record-breaking 220 registered attendees. Using feedback from past participants, we designed a track of student activities closely tailored to their interests. The resulting showcase of technical assistance and best practices set a new standard for our conferences in the years to come. This year's poster session was our largest ever, with over 50 presentations from students, faculty, and teachers. Posters covered a broad range of NASA activities from 'A Study of the Spiral Galaxy M101' to 'Network Cabling Characteristics.'

Harrington, James L., Jr.↗

Working at the Speed of Innovation: Impedance Mismatch in Rapid and Innovation Projects

In this paper we report on the results of an ethnographic study of a rapid design innovation (RDI) experiment in NASA Aeronautics. This work is based on the study of the Aeronautics Autonomy Testbed Capability (AATC) team in the Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project. This paper focuses on and summarizes one of the key over-arching findings from the study: there is a significant mismatch in the organizational culture in the rest of the organization compared with that required for RDI. And, if this organizational cultural mismatch is not addressed, the likelihood of any organization being able to advance a new and different type of work (such as RDI) will be jeopardized. We delineate several aspects of the two different cultures identified in order to enable leaders and practitioners to better understand what contributes to the cultural dissonance and the implications of the differences in the cultures. As well, we identify ways in which those differences can be addressed. Research from organization and other social sciences are incorporated to highlight the differences. The implications of the research suggest that the significant cultural differences trigger a strong and resistive response from the dominant culture that may negate leadership’s strategy to build the new capacity for RDI. While the research results noted the pervasive nature of innovation throughout the workplace, the type of innovation envisioned in RDI is a rare type of innovation that requires significantly new methods, work processes, tools, and skills such that approaches used in the dominate culture cannot be adopted by expediting the existing approaches. Examples include: innovation teaming and leadership; the need for adaptive leadership that changes the relationship of a research leader to the other researchers; and, an interdisciplinary teaming approach which shapes team relationships and activities. Each of these aspects requires new teaming, tools, and skills in order to succeed. Thus, when introducing RDI activities where there is a different dominant culture, teams need to be: well trained; protected; recognized and rewarded. And, team leaders must also be trained in the unique types of teaming and innovation tools used in RDI. Both RDI teaming and team leadership must be sanctioned, supported, and rewarded by leadership. Because of the cultural mismatch, in some organizations looking to add RDI to their existing and established organizations, sep to avoid or mitigate the negative impact of the culture mismatch.

Crain, Cathleen↗

Imagine Moving Off the Planet

Moving off the planet will be a defining moment of this century as landing on the Moon was in the last. For that to happen for humans to go where humans cannot go-- simulation is the sole solution. NASA supports simulation for life-cycle activities: design, analysis, test, checkout, operations, review and training. We contemplate time spans of a century and more, teams dispersed to different planets and the need for systems that endure or adapt as missions, teams and technology change. Without imagination such goals are impossible. But with imagination we can go outside our present perception of reality to think about and take action on what has been, is and, especially, what might be. Consciously maturing an imagined, possibly workable, idea through framing it to optimization to design, and building the product provides us with a new approach to innovation and simulation fidelity. We address options, analyze, test and make improvements in how we think and work. Each step includes increasingly exact information about costs, schedule, who will be needed, where, when and how. NASA i integrating such thinking into its Exploration Product Realization Hierarchy for simulation and analysis, test and verification, and stimulus response goals. Technically NASA follows a timeline of studies, analysis, definition, design, development and operations with concurrent documentation. We have matched this Product Realization Hierarchy with a continuum from image to realization that incorporates commitment, current and needed research and communication to ensure superior and creative problem solving as well as advances in simulation. One result is a new approach to collaborative systems. Another is a distributed observer network prototyped using game engine technology bringing advanced 3-D simulation of a simulation to the desktop enabling people to develop shared consensus of its meaning. Much of the value of simulation comes from developing in people their ability to make good decisions and reflexes supporting impressive achievement. Synthesizing imagination systematically into our work - and thus our success - is a challenge. NASA engineers have inventive minds, and the task is determining how best to enable them to devise the simulation and other innovations that will make a story so clear and so intellectually sound that people can carry out the mission for 50-100 years. This demands skills and knowledge traditionally under-respected and under-represented in technology organizations. But we are beginning to see that the process encourages efficiency and enables us to attain more effective results. We have to elicit imaginative, intelligent and effective ways to make better use than ever of the minds we have and will have available. We have to accept the challenge to accomplish tasks among dispersed interdisciplinary teams who must overcome changing priorities and technology, time and distance in order to maximize interactivity and innovation as never before. Attention to the process of innovation is a practical means to increase the efficiency of our intelligence. We have an obligation to reexamine and improve the process by which we approach and exercise innovation as we accept the charge to move off the planet.

Elfrey, Priscilla R.↗

Treadmill Exercise with Increased Body Loading Enhances Post Flight Functional Performance

The goals of the Functional Task Test (FTT) study were to determine the effects of space flight on functional tests that are representative of high priority exploration mission tasks and to identify the key underlying physiological factors that contribute to decrements in performance. Ultimately this information will be used to assess performance risks and inform the design of countermeasures for exploration class missions. We have previously shown that for Shuttle, ISS and bed rest subjects functional tasks requiring a greater demand for dynamic control of postural equilibrium (i.e. fall recovery, seat egress/obstacle avoidance during walking, object translation, jump down) showed the greatest decrement in performance. Functional tests with reduced requirements for postural stability (i.e. hatch opening, ladder climb, manual manipulation of objects and tool use) showed little reduction in performance. These changes in functional performance were paralleled by similar decrements in sensorimotor tests designed to specifically assess postural equilibrium and dynamic gait control. The bed rest analog allows us to investigate the impact of axial body unloading in isolation on both functional tasks and on the underlying physiological factors that lead to decrements in performance and then compare them with the results obtained in our space flight study. These results indicate that body support unloading experienced during space flight plays a central role in postflight alteration of functional task performance. Given the importance of body-support loading we set out to determine if there is a relationship between the load experienced during inflight treadmill exercise (produced by a harness and bungee system) and postflight functional performance. ISS crewmembers (n=13) were tested using the FTT protocol before and after 6 months in space. Crewmembers were tested three times before flight, and on 1, 6, and 30 days after landing. To determine how differences in body-support loading experienced during inflight treadmill exercise impacts postflight functional performance, the loading history for each subject during inflight treadmill (T2) exercise was correlated with postflight measures of performance. Crewmembers who walked on the treadmill with higher pull-down loads had less decrement in postflight postural stability and dynamic locomotor control than those subjects who exercised with lighter loads. These data point to the importance of providing significant body loading during inflight treadmill exercise. This and the addition of specific balance training may further mitigate decrements in critical mission tasks that require dynamic postural stability and mobility. Inflight treadmill exercise provides a multi-disciplinary platform to provide sensorimotor, aerobic and bone mechanical stimuli benefits. Forward work will focus on the development of an inflight training system that will integrate aerobic, resistive and balance training modalities into a single interdisciplinary countermeasure system for exploration class missions.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Risk Characterization Research for Artemis II: Human Factors and Behavioral Performance

BACKGROUND Artemis II will be the first time NASA astronauts go beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) since the Apollo era, and the first astronauts heading into space in the Orion vehicle. As such, it provides a critical opportunity to refine our understanding of the likelihood and consequences associated with the Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Team, Human System Integration Architecture (HSIA), and Sleep Risks, and prepare for future Moon and Mars missions. However, Artemis II research efforts are uniquely shaped by in-mission data collection constraints. There is currently no in-mission crew time available to complete measures. In-mission data will need to be collected unobtrusively from available data streams (e.g., audiovisual, existing records such as schedules, and actigraphy). Accordingly, the overarching goal of our research is to utilize Artemis II data to further define the likelihood and consequences of these risks, and to create an unobtrusive research infrastructure that can be expanded to include future Artemis missions. This goal spans four aims across three research phases: (1) identify and operationally define key performances metrics and constructs across the four aforementioned risks, (2) develop an unobtrusive methodology and coding scheme for in-mission data collection, (3) characterize performance decrements due to Bmed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep Risks, and (4) develop a data infrastructure for future Artemis missions. The following details results of Phase I efforts in which we address Aims 1 and 2 to develop an unobtrusive measurement plan and coding scheme to capture key constructs, contributing factors, and performance decrements across each risk area. METHOD As part of Phase I, we conducted an interdisciplinary literature review and consulted with SMEs to identify unobtrusive methodologies that leverage text, audio, and/or video data as well as conceptualize key performance metrics, contributing factors, and BMed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep risk constructs related to performance decrements. The Phase I effort resulted in a finalized pre- and post-mission protocol for Artemis II, along with a measurement and coding scheme for in-mission Artemis II data. Phase II will involve data collection from the upcoming Artemis II mission. Phase III will include data processing, coding, depiction, analysis, and report writing of the Artemis II data. RESULTS & DISCUSSION To date, we have completed Phase I efforts. Specifically, we identified BMed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep risk constructs related to performance metrics, summarized how these constructs can be measured using audiovisual data collected during the mission, and worked with NASA’s HFBP Element to finalize a data collection protocol that leverages audiovisual input from the Orion spacecraft system. Our protocol includes novel unobtrusive methodologies that adhere to in-mission data streams and subsequent constraints (e.g., limited storage space on GoPro cameras, ambient noise impeding audio files) to best capture in-mission phenomena across each risk area. We will present our results from Phase I efforts, namely best practices for unobtrusive measurement as identified through literature reviews and SME consultation as well as codebook excerpts for use in Artemis II. We will include a description of planned work as we prepare for Phase II and Phase III of this research plan and the Artemis II mission itself. SUMMARY We describe progress on our Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Research for Artemis II study.

behavioral health↗

A Synthesis of Fluid Dynamics and Quantum Chemistry for the Design of Nanoelectronics

In 1959, during a famous lecture entitled "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom", Richard Feynman focused on the startling technical possibilities that would exist at the limit of miniaturization, that being atomically precise devices with dimensions in the nanometer range. A nanometer is both a convenient unit of length for medium to large sized molecules, and the root of the name of the new interdisciplinary field of "nanotechnology". Essentially, "nanoelectronics" denotes the goal of shrinking electronic devices, such as diodes and transistors, as well as integrated circuits of such devices that can perform logical operations, down to dimensions in the range of 100 nanometers. The thirty-year hiatus in the development of nanotechnology can figuratively be seen as a period of waiting for the bottom-up and atomically precise construction skills of synthetic chemistry to meet the top-down reductionist aspirations of device physics. The sub-nanometer domain of nineteenth-century classical chemistry has steadily grown, and state-of-the-art supramolecular chemistry can achieve atomic precision in non-repeating molecular assemblies of the size desired for nanotechnology. For nanoelectronics in particular, a basic understanding of the electron transport properties of molecules must also be developed. Quantum chemistry provides powerful computational methods that can accurately predict the properties of small to medium sized molecules on a desktop workstation, and those of large molecules if one has access to a supercomputer. Of the many properties of a molecule that quantum chemistry routinely predicts, the ability to carry a current is one that had not even been considered until recently. "Currently", there is a controversy over just how to define this key property. Reminiscent of the situation in high-Tc superconductivity, much of the difficulty arises from the different models that are used to simplify the complex electronic structure of real materials. A model-independent approach has been proposed, that sacrifices the plentiful molecular orbitals and Bloch functions of conventional approaches, for a single three-dimensional observable quantity, the electron momentum density Pi(sub rho). This quantity is simply the probability of any electron having momentum rho, multiplied by the total number of electrons in the system (the position of the electron is uncertain). We have explored the utility of this new approach in providing a fundamental understanding of the electron transport properties of molecules that have provi been nominated as candidates for components in the design of nanoelectronics; phenylene-ethynylene oligomers. Some of the molecular systems that have been studied are sketched below.

MacDougall, Preston J.↗

Coordinating AgMIP Data and Models Across Global and Regional Scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C Assessments

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some bread basket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

interdisciplinary↗