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At least 379 records · Page 21

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Assimilation on Runoff Estimation Across South Asia

This study was designed to characterize and quantify the influence of surface soil moisture assimilation on estimated runoff (surface flow and baseflow) and hydraulically-routed streamflow across three large river basins in South Asia that are at risk of impending water stress. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) surface soil moisture retrievals were assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model. The gridded runoff was hydraulically routed to obtain volumetric streamflow values for a river network using a runoff routing module (Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform, HyMAP). The open loop (OL, model-only) and data assimilated (DA, includes soil moisture retrieval assimilation) Noah-MP runoff estimates highlighted the improvements in estimated total runoff across irrigated areas. Soil moisture assimilation impacted baseflow more relative to surface runoff. The HyMAP-based OL and DA streamflow generally underestimated the streamflow at upstream stations and overestimated the streamflow at downstream stations within the Indus basin due to missing physics related to reservoir operations. For stations located in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basins, the OL and DA estimation performance varied. The OL and DA results showed that the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals improves gridded runoff and volumetric streamflow across irrigated areas. Considerable relative change in streamflow (>70% increase in magnitude relative to OL) is noted after assimilation across the highly irrigated lower Indus basin and high precipitation regions in Bangladesh. Improving the modeling system’s representativeness of ground conditions via inclusion of water management information could improve large-scale streamflow modeling across South Asia.

soil moisture↗

Evapotranspiration depletes groundwater under warming over the contiguous United States

A warmer climate increases evaporative demand. However, response to warming depends on water availability. Existing earth system models represent soil moisture but simplify groundwater connections, a primary control on soil moisture. Here we apply an integrated surface-groundwater hydrologic model to evaluate the sensitivity of shallow groundwater to warming across the majority of the US. We show that as warming shifts the balance between water supply and demand, shallow groundwater storage can buffer plant water stress; but only where shallow groundwater connections are present, and not indefinitely. As warming persists, storage can be depleted and connections lost. Similarly, in the arid western US warming does not result in significant groundwater changes because this area is already largely water limited. The direct response of shallow groundwater storage to warming demonstrates the strong and early effect that low to moderate warming may have on groundwater storage and evapotranspiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Research and Educational Opportunities with NASA GSFC

The research carried out in the Earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentation. These research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth System Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. There are 4 major laboratories in the directorate and 2 organizations that focus on scientific information technology. These laboratories focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change). Two of the labs also have branches that focus on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies. In the information technologies, areas of scientific and technical research, and expertise include massively parallel computers, technologies for high speed electronic networks, scientific visualization, information systems, archive and distribution systems, and information processing. Examples will be presented from each of these research disciplines.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

Earth System Science at NASA: Teleconnections Between Sea Surface Temperature and Epidemics in Africa

The research carried out in the Earth Sciences in NASA and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentations. In addition, one research project that links sea surface temperature to epidemics in Africa will be highlighted. At GSFC research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. These organizations focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change), on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies, and on information technologies, that enable support of scientific and technical research.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

Remote Sensing of Snow Cover: Snow Extent - Section

Snow was easily identified in the first image obtained from the Television Infrared Operational Satellite-1 (TIROS-1) weather satellite in 1960 because the high albedo of snow presents a good contrast with most other natural surfaces. Subsequently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began to map snow using satellite-borne instruments in 1966. Snow plays an important role in the Earth s energy balance, causing more solar radiation to be reflected back into space as compared to most snow-free surfaces. Seasonal snow cover also provides a critical water resource through meltwater emanating from rivers that originate from high-mountain areas such as the Tibetan Plateau. Meltwater from mountain snow packs flows to some of the world s most densely-populated areas such as Southeast Asia, benefiting over 1 billion people (Immerzeel et al., 2010). In this section, we provide a brief overview of the remote sensing of snow cover using visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and passive-microwave (PM) data. Snow can be mapped using the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum, even in darkness and through cloud cover, but at a coarser spatial resolution than when using VNIR data. Fusing VNIR and PM algorithms to produce a blended product offers synergistic benefits. Snow-water equivalent (SWE), snow extent, and melt onset are important parameters for climate models and for the initialization of atmospheric forecasts at daily and seasonal time scales. Snowmelt data are also needed as input to hydrological models to improve flood control and irrigation management.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Terrestrial glacial eskers: Analogs for Martian sinuous ridges

A glacial model was introduced last year for the Argyre region, a concept which is now extended, and which was recently integrated with a Global Hydrologic Model incorporating many other aspects of Martian geology. Despite wide agreement that the Martian ridges strongly resemble glacial eskers, this hypothesis has been presented with great equivocation due to a perceived lack of other glacial landforms. Quite to the contrary, it is shown that the Martian ridges actually do occur in logical ordered sequences with many other types of characteristically glacial appearing landforms. Herein, the esker hypothesis is further supported in isolation from considerations of regional landform assemblages. It is concluded that Martian sinuous ridges are similar in every respect to terrestrial eskers: scale, morphology, planimetric pattern, and associations with other probable glaciogenic landforms. It is found that the esker hypothesis is well supported. Eskers are glaciofluvial structures, and owe their existence to large scale melting of stagnant temporate glaciers. Thus, eskers are indicators of an ameliorating climatic regime after a protracted episode of cold, humid conditions.

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗

Marin County Wildfires Ii: Improving Fire Suppression Modeling to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, Ca

A future of increased wildfires requires greater integration of spatial analysis and local knowledge of emergency responders. We examine the application of a Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) framework for strategic pre-fire planning in Marin County. PODs are spatial units for wildfire management that combine predictive modeling and local firefighter expertise to identify potential control locations as unit boundaries and assess the difficulty of suppression within units. Additionally, this project explores the integration of road networks and social vulnerability to assess environmental justice in evacuation safety. This project constitutes a novel application of the PODs framework as it integrates expertise from Marin County senior firefighters with a Fireline Location Model (FLM) to achieve POD definition and uses a Suppression Difficulty Score (SDS) to rank each POD. The FLM uses network analysis and hydrologic modeling to identify key roads and ridgelines as boundaries and combines them with expert knowledge, in the form of workshops, to construct PODs. Once identified, PODs are classified using SDS, which includes processed inputs such as LiDAR-derived aboveground biomass, ECOSTRESS Evaporative Stress Index, land use cover type from Sentinel-2 Imagery, and a digital elevation model. Environmental justice for evacuation safety incorporated three key road metrics such as connectivity, travel area, and exit capacity, the Social Vulnerability Index from the Center for Disease Control, and cell coverage to determine a final Evacuation Difficulty Score. Results indicate a strong link between road networks as primary POD boundaries, with ridgelines and waterways as secondary and tertiary locations. Specifically, we find 78.5% of expertise-identified POD boundaries align with FLM-determined boundaries. More validation is needed to support this process; however, initial results signal a feasible framework to integrate expertise and spatial analysis in local level strategic fire planning

Wildfire modeling↗

Technical Note: NASAaccess – A Tool for Access, Reformatting, and Visualization of Remotely Sensed Earth Observation and Climate Data

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has launched a new initiative, the Open-Source Science Initiative (OSSI), to enable and support science towards openness. The OSSI supports open-source software development and dissemination. In this work, we present NASAaccess, which is an open-source software package and web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data accessing, reformatting, and presenting quantitative data products. The main objective of developing the NASAaccess platform is to facilitate exploration, modeling, and understanding of earth data for scientists, stakeholders, and concerned citizens whose objectives align with the new OSSI goals. The NASAaccess platform is available as software packages (i.e., the R and conda packages) as well as an interactive-format web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data developed with Tethys Platform. NASAaccess has been envisioned as lowering the technical barriers and simplifying the process of accessing scalable distributed computing resources and leveraging additional software for data and computationally intensive modeling frameworks. Specifically, NASAaccess has been developed to meet the need for seamless earth observation remote-sensing and climate data ingestion into various hydrological modeling frameworks. Moreover, NASAaccess is also contributing to keeping interested parties and stakeholders engaged with environmental modeling, accessing the information available in various remote-sensing products. NASAaccess' current capabilities cover various NASA datasets and products that include the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data products, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land surface states and fluxes, and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate change dataset products.

Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed↗

Overview of US AID-World Bank-NASA Collaboration to Address Water Management Issues in the MENA Region

The World Bank, USAID and NASA have recently established a joint project to study multiple issues pertaining to water related applications in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The main concentration of the project is on utilization of remote sensing data and hydrological models to address crop irrigation and mapping, flood mapping and forecasting, evapotranspiration and drought problems prevalent in this large geographic area. Additional emphases are placed on understanding the climate impact on these areas as well. Per IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century MENA region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. These observations generate multiple products such as soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gases, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed-via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, droUght assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Finally, capacity building is a critical part of this project and NASA will assist in this effort as well.

Habib, Shahid↗

Insights into storm direction effect on flood response

In this study, we investigate the directional influence of storm movement on catchment flood peak response using the synthetic circular basin. Due to the complexity in defining storm movements that require meteorological modeling, we adopt a novel approach of combining the basin rotation method (BRM) with a circular basin construct. A systematic basin rotation approach provides a proxy for the storm direction relative to the river network topology to study its hydrologic response. Using Stage-IV rainfall with 4-km by 1-hour resolution for 16 years period from 2003 to 2018 in Iowa, U.S., we systematically analyze consequent flood peak response due to storm directions (basin rotations) using a distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model (HLM). HLM has demonstrated the ability to reproduce observed streamflow for real river basins studied in Iowa. The hydrologic simulation results show that the BRM can quantify the relationship between the rainstorm direction and catchment hydrologic response. Also, the maximum flood peak response is strongly dependent on the interaction of the peak of the rainstorm with the peak of the width function. The results indicate significant differences in runoff volume and runoff peak and their interannual variability due to rainstorm direction. The study has important implications for flood frequency predictions and developing flood resilience and watershed management strategies, particularly due to changing storm tracks under a warming climate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗

The Effect of Firn-Aquifer Drainage on the Greenland Subglacial System or Subglacial Efficiency and Storage Modified by the Temporal Pattern of High-Elevation Meltwater Input

Ice flow in marginal region of the Greenland Ice Sheet dynamically responds to summer melting as surface meltwater is routed through the supraglacial hydrologic system to the bed of the ice sheet via crevasses and moulins. Given the expected increases in surface melt production and extent, and the potential for high elevation surface-to-bed connections, it is imperative to understand how meltwater delivered to the bed from different high-elevation supraglacial storage features affects the evolution of the subglacial hydrologic system and associated ice dynamics. Here, we use the two-dimensional subglacial hydrologic model, GLaDS, which includes distributed and channelized water flow, to test how the subglacial system of an idealized outlet glacier responds to cases of high-elevation firn-aquifer-type and supraglacial-lake-type englacial drainage over the course of 5 years. Model outputs driven by these high elevation drainage types are compared to steady-state model results, where the subglacial system only receives the 1980- 2016 mean MERRA-2 runoff via low-elevation moulins. Across all experiments, the subglacial hydrologic system displays inter-annual memory, resulting in multiyear declines in subglacial pressure during the onset of seasonal melting and growth of subglacial channels. The gradual addition of water in firn-aquifer-type drainage scenarios resulted in small increases in subglacial water storage but limited changes in subglacial efficiency and channelization. Rapid, supraglacial- lake-type drainage resulted in short-term local increases in subglacial water pressure and storage, which gave way to spatially extensive decreases in subglacial pressure and downstream channelization. These preliminary results suggest that the character of high-elevation englacial drainage can have a strong, and possibly outsized, control on subglacial efficiency throughout the ablation zone. Therefore, understanding both how high elevation meltwater is stored supraglacially and the probability of crevassing at high elevations will play an important role in how the subglacial system, proglacial discharge and ice motion will respond to future increases in surface melt production and runoff.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Data Assimilation↗

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Simulated Land Allocation, Nitrogen Use, and Nitrogen Loss in the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin for Various RFS2 (Renewable Fuel Standard) Policy Scenarios

Total nitrogen leaching rates were calculated over the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) using an integrated economic-biophysical modeling approach. Land allocation for corn production and total nitrogen application rates were calculated for crop reporting districts using the Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM) for 5 RFS2 policy scenarios. These were used as input in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Agricultural Version (Agro-IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrologic Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) to calculate the nitrogen loss. Land allocation and total nitrogen application simulations were simulated for the period 2016-2030 for 303 crop reporting districts (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/County_Data_Files/Frequently_Asked_Questions/county_list.txt). The final 2030 values are reported here. Both are stored in csv files. Units for land allocation are million ha and nitrogen application are million kg. The nitrogen leaching rates were modeled with a spatial resolution of 5' x 5' using the North American Datum of 1983 projection and stored in NetCDF files. The 30-year average is calculated over the last 30 years of the 45 years being simulated. Leaching rates are calculated in kg-N/ha.

bioenergy crops↗