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At least 379 records · Page 21

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗

Development of Advanced, Radiation Resistant, Optical-based Detector Technology for Future Experiments.

The primary objective of this project has been to advance the design of high-performance electromagnetic (EM) calorimeters for future particle physics experiments, to identify and measure the timing, position and energy of electrons, positrons and gamma rays, particularly in high-luminosity environments with intense radiation and pileup conditions. To meet such challenges, the proposed research has focused on the development of ultra-compact, radiation-hard calorimeter modules, to provide excellent timing, spatial, and energy resolution. The work aligns with the DOE’s Basic Research Needs (BRN) for High Energy Physics (HEP) Instrumentation and the research team contributes actively to the Coordinating Panel on Advanced Detectors (CPAD) RDC9 calorimetry collaboration in the USA and the European Committee on Future Accelerators (ECFA) DRD-CALO calorimetry collaboration at CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics located in Geneva, Switzerland. The research builds on the RADiCAL (radiation-hard, ultra-compact) modular sampling calorimeter approach, developed by the research team, which employs dense and very bright optical materials such as LYSO:Ce scintillator plates that are interleaved with very dense tungsten plates to minimize detector size while optimizing performance. The modules are comparable in size to a human index finger, dimensionally 14 mm x 14 mm in cross section and 135 mm in length. And despite the small size, the structure is capable of providing excellent timing and energy resolution. This is facilitated through the use of specialized quartz capillaries filled with wavelength-shifting filaments, positioned at various depths along the length of a module, to collect and guide light signals to silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) which detect and convert the optical signals to electronic signals for analysis. The primary goals of this project have been: (1) Achieve a timing resolution to σ t ≤ 30 ps for high-energy electrons and photons, important for their association with specific events produced in colliding-beam experiments and for the detection of decays-in-flight of long-lived particles. The project has achieved this goal in beam tests of a single RADiCAL module at CERN, during which a timing resolution of σ t = 27 ps was measured for electrons of energy E = 150 GeV. Based upon a mathematical fit to the data measured over a broad energy range from low energy to high energy, a resolution of σ t ≤ 18 ps has been estimated for electrons of very high (TeV) energy. From these measurements and with further expected technical improvements, the timing resolution should reach σ t ≤ 10 ps, important for searches for discovery physics in upcoming and future experiments. (2) Achieve an energy resolution of σ E / E ≤ 10% / $\sqrt{E}$. The project has yet to achieve this goal, but is close to it, having measured a value of σ E / E ≤ 15.9% / $\sqrt{E}$ using a modular array. Ultimately, the resolution goal is expected to be reached by adjustments to material thicknesses within the modules, which will improve the sampling fraction to measure more precisely the shower energy for lower energy particles. The versatility of the modular RADiCAL approach enables the testing of advanced materials, photosensors and electronics, developed in collaboration with CPAD RDC and ECFA DRD-CALO groups. The structure can distinguish electrons, positrons and gamma rays from hadrons and muons and beam-induced backgrounds, making it a valuable tool in a variety of detector environments, including future circular colliders (FCC-ee, FCC-hh) proposed for the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), the muon-collider proposed for Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), and searches for new physics in beam-dump, fixed target and forward-physics experiments. And, while designed with particle physics applications in mind, the technologies developed in this project have the potential for application more broadly in particle and nuclear physics, materials science, and medical physics, underscoring the far-reaching potential of this line of instrumentation research and development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Biotic Interactions Are More Important than Propagule Pressure in Microbial Community Invasions

ABSTRACT Microbial probiotics are intended to improve functions in diverse ecosystems, yet probiotics often fail to establish in a preexisting microbiome. This is a species invasion problem. The relative importance of the two major factors controlling establishment in this context—propagule pressure (inoculation dose and frequency) and biotic interactions (composition of introduced and resident communities)—is unknown. We tested the effect of these factors in driving microbial composition and functioning following 12 microbial community invasions (e.g., introductions of many microbial invaders) in microcosms. Ecosystem functioning over a 30-day postinvasion period was assessed by measuring activity (respiration) and environment modification (dissolved organic carbon abundance). To test the dependence on environmental context, experiments were performed in two resource environments. In both environments, biotic interactions were more important than propagule pressure in driving microbial composition and community function, but the magnitude of effect varied by environment. Successful invaders comprised approximately 8% of the total number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Bacteria were better invaders than fungi, with average relative abundances of 7.4% ± 6.8% and 1.5% ± 1.4% of OTUs, respectively. Common bacterial invaders were associated with stress response traits. The most resilient bacterial and fungal families, in other words, those least impacted by invasions, were linked to antimicrobial resistance or production traits. Illuminating the principles that determine community composition and functioning following microbial invasions is key to efficient community engineering. IMPORTANCE With increasing frequency, humans are introducing new microbes into preexisting microbiomes to alter functioning. Example applications include modification of microflora in human guts for better health and those of soil for food security and/or climate management. Probiotic applications are often approached as trial-and-error endeavors and have mixed outcomes. We propose that increased success in microbiome engineering may be achieved with a better understanding of microbial invasions. We conducted a microbial community invasion experiment to test the relative importance of propagule pressure and biotic interactions in driving microbial community composition and ecosystem functioning in microcosms. We found that biotic interactions were more important than propagule pressure in determining the impact of microbial invasions. Furthermore, the principles for community engineering vary among organismal groups (bacteria versus fungi).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CD46-Targeted Theranostics for PET and 225 Ac-Radiopharmaceutical Therapy of Multiple Myeloma

Multiple myeloma is a plasma cell malignancy with an unmet clinical need for improved imaging methods and therapeutics. Recently, we identified CD46 as an overexpressed therapeutic target in multiple myeloma and developed the antibody YS5, which targets a cancer-specific epitope on this protein. We further developed the CD46-targeting PET probe [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 for imaging and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 for radiopharmaceutical therapy of prostate cancer. These prior studies suggested the feasibility of the CD46 antigen as a theranostic target in multiple myeloma. Herein, we validate [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 for immunoPET imaging and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 for radiopharmaceutical therapy of multiple myeloma in murine models. In vitro saturation binding was performed using the CD46 expressing MM.1S multiple myeloma cell line. ImmunoPET imaging using [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 was performed in immunodeficient (NSG) mice bearing subcutaneous and systemic multiple myeloma xenografts. For radioligand therapy, [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 was prepared, and both dose escalation and fractionated dose treatment studies were performed in mice bearing MM1.S-Luc systemic xenografts. Tumor burden was analyzed using BLI, and body weight and overall survival were recorded to assess antitumor effect and toxicity. [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 demonstrated high affinity for CD46 expressing MM.1S multiple myeloma cells (K d = 16.3 nmol/L). In vitro assays in multiple myeloma cell lines demonstrated high binding, and bioinformatics analysis of human multiple myeloma samples revealed high CD46 expression. [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 PET/CT specifically detected multiple myeloma lesions in a variety of models, with low uptake in controls, including CD46 knockout (KO) mice or multiple myeloma mice using a nontargeted antibody. In the MM.1S systemic model, localization of uptake on PET imaging correlated well with the luciferase expression from tumor cells. A treatment study using [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 in the MM.1S systemic model demonstrated a clear tumor volume and survival benefit in the treated groups. Our study showed that the CD46-targeted probe [ 89 Zr]Zr-DFO-YS5 can successfully image CD46-expressing multiple myeloma xenografts in murine models, and [ 225 Ac]Ac-DOTA-YS5 can effectively inhibit the growth of multiple myeloma. These results demonstrate that CD46 is a promising theranostic target for multiple myeloma, with the potential for clinical translation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arsenic stabilization performance of a novel starch-modified Fe-Mn binary oxide colloid

Arsenic (As) is an environmentally hazardous contaminant and can be a serious threat to human health. In China, remediation needs for a large number of As-contaminated sites renders a strong demand for efficient remedial reagents and cost effective approaches. In this study, a novel starch-modified Fe-Mn binary oxide (SFM), an amorphous colloidal material, has been synthesized as a remedial reagent and its As stabilization performance has been evaluated. A set of laboratory batch experiments were carried out by directly adding SFM of different dosages into three contaminated soils. Results demonstrated that SFM could transform As in soil from non-specifically and specifically sorbed fractions to the more stable form bounded to amorphous iron hydrous oxides, thus reducing the As concentration in TCLP leachates by 42.0-93.2%. Results from adsorption tests and microscopic analysis indicated that the interactions between SFM and As are mainly controlled by adsorption, oxidation, and precipitation processes. SFM has abundant surface hydroxyl groups, with excellent adsorption properties for both As(V) and As(III), with the maximum adsorption capacities of 160.63 and 284.64 mg/g respectively at pH 7.0. The adsorption process closely fitted pseudo second-order kinetics and Freundlich isotherm model. SFM could increase soil Eh and oxidize As(III) to As(V), which facilitated the As stabilization in soilColloidal iron-based material directly used for stabilization in As contaminated soils is reported here for the first time. Starch modification improves both the reactivity and mobility of SFM in soil. Our findings propose an efficient and convenient reagent for As remediation in soil.

Yan, Xiulan↗

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Discriminative analysis of schizophrenia patients using graph convolutional networks: A combined multimodal MRI and connectomics analysis

Introduction Recent studies in human brain connectomics with multimodal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data have widely reported abnormalities in brain structure, function and connectivity associated with schizophrenia (SZ). However, most previous discriminative studies of SZ patients were based on MRI features of brain regions, ignoring the complex relationships within brain networks. Methods We applied a graph convolutional network (GCN) to discriminating SZ patients using the features of brain region and connectivity derived from a combined multimodal MRI and connectomics analysis. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data were acquired from 140 SZ patients and 205 normal controls. Eighteen types of brain graphs were constructed for each subject using 3 types of node features, 3 types of edge features, and 2 brain atlases. We investigated the performance of 18 brain graphs and used the TopK pooling layers to highlight salient brain regions (nodes in the graph). Results The GCN model, which used functional connectivity as edge features and multimodal features (sMRI + fMRI) of brain regions as node features, obtained the highest average accuracy of 95.8%, and outperformed other existing classification studies in SZ patients. In the explainability analysis, we reported that the top 10 salient brain regions, predominantly distributed in the prefrontal and occipital cortices, were mainly involved in the systems of emotion and visual processing. Discussion Our findings demonstrated that GCN with a combined multimodal MRI and connectomics analysis can effectively improve the classification of SZ at an individual level, indicating a promising direction for the diagnosis of SZ patients. The code is available at https://github.com/CXY-scut/GCN-SZ.git .

Chen, Xiaoyi↗

Plant science decadal vision 2020–2030: Reimagining the potential of plants for a healthy and sustainable future

Abstract Plants, and the biological systems around them, are key to the future health of the planet and its inhabitants. The Plant Science Decadal Vision 2020–2030 frames our ability to perform vital and far‐reaching research in plant systems sciences, essential to how we value participants and apply emerging technologies. We outline a comprehensive vision for addressing some of our most pressing global problems through discovery, practical applications, and education. The Decadal Vision was developed by the participants at the Plant Summit 2019, a community event organized by the Plant Science Research Network. The Decadal Vision describes a holistic vision for the next decade of plant science that blends recommendations for research, people, and technology. Going beyond discoveries and applications, we, the plant science community, must implement bold, innovative changes to research cultures and training paradigms in this era of automation, virtualization, and the looming shadow of climate change. Our vision and hopes for the next decade are encapsulated in the phrase reimagining the potential of plants for a healthy and sustainable future. The Decadal Vision recognizes the vital intersection of human and scientific elements and demands an integrated implementation of strategies for research (Goals 1–4), people (Goals 5 and 6), and technology (Goals 7 and 8). This report is intended to help inspire and guide the research community, scientific societies, federal funding agencies, private philanthropies, corporations, educators, entrepreneurs, and early career researchers over the next 10 years. The research encompass experimental and computational approaches to understanding and predicting ecosystem behavior; novel production systems for food, feed, and fiber with greater crop diversity, efficiency, productivity, and resilience that improve ecosystem health; approaches to realize the potential for advances in nutrition, discovery and engineering of plant‐based medicines, and "green infrastructure." Launching the Transparent Plant will use experimental and computational approaches to break down the phytobiome into a "parts store" that supports tinkering and supports query, prediction, and rapid‐response problem solving. Equity, diversity, and inclusion are indispensable cornerstones of realizing our vision. We make recommendations around funding and systems that support customized professional development. Plant systems are frequently taken for granted therefore we make recommendations to improve plant awareness and community science programs to increase understanding of scientific research. We prioritize emerging technologies, focusing on non‐invasive imaging, sensors, and plug‐and‐play portable lab technologies, coupled with enabling computational advances. Plant systems science will benefit from data management and future advances in automation, machine learning, natural language processing, and artificial intelligence‐assisted data integration, pattern identification, and decision making. Implementation of this vision will transform plant systems science and ripple outwards through society and across the globe. Beyond deepening our biological understanding, we envision entirely new applications. We further anticipate a wave of diversification of plant systems practitioners while stimulating community engagement, underpinning increasing entrepreneurship. This surge of engagement and knowledge will help satisfy and stoke people's natural curiosity about the future, and their desire to prepare for it, as they seek fuller information about food, health, climate and ecological systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep-Learning-Derived Evaluation Metrics Enable Effective Benchmarking of Computational Tools for Phosphopeptide Identification

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS)-based phosphoproteomics is a powerful technology for global phosphorylation analysis. However, applying four computational pipelines to a typical mass spectrometry (MS)-based phosphoproteomic dataset from a human cancer study, we observed a large discrepancy among the reported phosphopeptide identification and phosphosite localization results, underscoring a critical need for benchmarking. While efforts have been made to compare performance of computational pipelines using data from synthetic phosphopeptides, evaluations involving real application data have been largely limited to comparing the numbers of phosphopeptide identifications due to the lack of appropriate evaluation metrics. We investigated three deep learning-derived features as potential evaluation metrics: phosphosite probability, Delta RT and spectral similarity. Predicted phosphosite probability is computed by MusiteDeep, which provides high accuracy as previously reported; Delta RT is defined as the absolute retention time (RT) difference between RTs observed and predicted by AutoRT; and spectral similarity is defined as the Pearson’s correlation coefficient between spectra observed and predicted by pDeep2. Using a synthetic peptide dataset, we found that both Delta RT and spectral similarity provided excellent discrimination between correct and incorrect peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) both when incorrect PSMs involved wrong peptide sequences and even when incorrect PSMs were caused by only incorrect phosphosite localization. Based on these results, we used all the three deep learning-derived features as evaluation metrics to compare different computational pipelines on diverse set of phosphoproteomic datasets and showed their utility in benchmarking performance of the pipelines. The benchmark metrics demonstrated in this study will enable users to select computational pipelines and parameters for routine analysis of phosphoproteomics data and will offer guidance for developers to improve computational methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating genomic prediction strategies for grain carotenoid traits in a tropical/subtropical maize panel

Abstract Vitamin A deficiency remains prevalent on a global scale, including in regions where maize constitutes a high percentage of human diets. One solution for alleviating this deficiency has been to increase grain concentrations of provitamin A carotenoids in maize (Zea mays ssp. mays L.)—an example of biofortification. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed a Carotenoid Association Mapping panel of 380 inbred lines adapted to tropical and subtropical environments that have varying grain concentrations of provitamin A and other health-beneficial carotenoids. Several major genes have been identified for these traits, 2 of which have particularly been leveraged in marker-assisted selection. This project assesses the predictive ability of several genomic prediction strategies for maize grain carotenoid traits within and between 4 environments in Mexico. Ridge Regression-Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, Elastic Net, and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces had high predictive abilities for all tested traits (β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, provitamin A, lutein, and zeaxanthin) and outperformed Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. Furthermore, predictive abilities were higher when using genome-wide markers rather than only the markers proximal to 2 or 13 genes. These findings suggest that genomic prediction models using genome-wide markers (and assuming equal variance of marker effects) are worthwhile for these traits even though key genes have already been identified, especially if breeding for additional grain carotenoid traits alongside β-carotene. Predictive ability was maintained for all traits except lutein in between-environment prediction. The TASSEL (Trait Analysis by aSSociation, Evolution, and Linkage) Genomic Selection plugin performed as well as other more computationally intensive methods for within-environment prediction. The findings observed herein indicate the utility of genomic prediction methods for these traits and could inform their resource-efficient implementation in biofortification breeding programs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Reliability of Passive Infrared (PIR) Occupancy Sensors for Residential Indoor Lighting

Solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies have penetrated the general illumination market in recent years, largely replacing conventional technologies such as incandescent and fluorescent lighting. Most of the initial excitement about light-emitting diode (LED) sources for SSL devices focused on their energy savings potential resulting from vast improvements in source efficiency and luminous efficacy compared with conventional illumination products. More recently, the focus has shifted toward other aspects of lighting application efficiency, namely intensity effectiveness and spectral efficiency, because of the ease of controlling both the light intensity of LEDs with drive voltage and the color properties of the LED-based illuminators. To capitalize on the energy savings of increased intensity effectiveness and spectral efficiency, a lighting control system (LCS) is often used. While the current penetration of LCSs is relatively modest, it is anticipated that lighting controls (i.e., connected lighting, controls and LED and conventional lighting) could have an installed penetration as higher as 46% by the year 2035, saving an additional 1.3 quads of energy. Despite the large energy savings that can be gained from using LCSs, standard test methods for evaluating sensors employed in LCSs and reliability data of the LCSs and their components are generally lacking. The National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) developed the only standard, NEMA WD 7-2011 (R2016), to test occupancy and motion sensor performance (herein referred to as “the NEMA protocol”). In a previous U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) effort, some concerns of the NEMA protocol were identified (e.g., strict height and weight limits on test subjects, large amounts of manual effort, sometimes inconsistent repeatability). During the current work, a consistent detection length test (DLT) and a Robotic Sensor Evaluation System (RoboSES) were developed to alleviate some of these concerns. RoboSES acts as a human surrogate by using thermal pads on a mannequin and a remote-controlled mobile base to test a sensor’s field of view (FOV). This report builds on the earlier DOE efforts to understand sensor technologies used in LCSs for general illumination. Specifically, this report describes the optimization of RoboSES, characterizes and establishes test methods to assess the reliability of multiple passive infrared (PIR) sensors, and reports the findings of robustness and reliability testing on two commercial PIR sensors intended for residential applications. The information presented in this report is gained from up to 4,000 hours (hrs) of accelerated stress tests (ASTs).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗