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NASA NTRS2012

Chemical Mapping of Vesta

Vesta s surface mineralogy and composition have been studied for decades via telescopic spectroscopy and laboratory analyses of the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites, which are thought to originate from Vesta. Visible and infrared reflectance measurements by Dawn have broadly confirmed the paradigm established by Earth-based work, strengthening the Vesta-HED connection. The Dawn mission has achieved a milestone by completing the first chemical measurements of a main-belt asteroid using nuclear spectroscopy. Dawn s Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND) has globally mapped the composition of Vesta, including the portions of the northern hemisphere not illuminated by solar radiation. GRaND is sensitive to the composition of the bulk regolith to depths of several decimeters. Abundances and/or detection limits for specific elements and elemental ratios, such as H, Fe, Si, Fe/O, Fe/Si, and K, have been measured. Variations in the average atomic mass and neutron macroscopic absorption cross section have been characterized. The measurements constrain the relative proportions of HED whole-rock end-members, providing measurements of the pyroxene and plagioclase content of the regolith, thereby constraining the processes underlying Vesta s differentiation and crustal evolution. The spatial resolution of GRaND is sufficient to determine basin-average compositions of Veneneia and Rheasilvia, which may contain outcrops of Vesta s olivine-rich mantle. While the elemental composition of Vesta s regolith is similar to the meteorites, there are notable departures from HED whole-rock compositions. While these differences are not sufficient to topple the Vesta-HED paradigm, they provide insight into global-scale processes that have shaped Vesta s surface. Questions addressed by the analysis of GRaND data include: (i) Is Vesta the source of the Fe-rich mesosiderites? (ii) Are evolved, igneous lithologies present on Vesta s surface? (iii) What are the origins of exogenic materials found in Vesta s regolith? (iv) Is the vestan mantle exposed within the southern basins?

Prettyman, Thomas H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Measuring Aerosol Optical Properties with the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is the Dutch-Finnish contribution to the NASA EOS-Aura mission scheduled for launch in January 2004. OM1 is an imaging spectrometer that will measure the back-scattered Solar radiance between 270 an 500 nm. With its relatively high spatial resolution (13x24 sq km at nadir) and daily global coverage. OM1 will make a major contribution to our understanding of atmospheric chemistry and to climate research. OM1 will provide data continuity with the TOMS instruments. One of the pleasant surprises of the TOMS data record was its information on aerosol properties. First, only the absorbing aerosol index, which is sensitive to elevated lay- ers of aerosols such as desert dust and smoke aerosols, was derived. Recently these methods were further improved to yield aerosol optical thickness and single scattering albedo over land and ocean for 19 years of TOMS data (1979-1992,1997-2002), making it one of the longest and most valuable time series for aerosols presently available. Such long time series are essential to quantify the effect of aerosols on the Earth& climate. The OM1 instrument is better suited to measure aerosols than the TOMS instruments because of the smaller footprint, and better spectral coverage. The better capabilities of OMI will enable us to provide an improved aerosol product, but the knowledge will also be used for further analysis of the aerosol record from TOMS. The OM1 aerosol product that is currently being developed for OM1 combines the TOMS experience and the multi-spectral techniques that are used in the visible and near infrared. The challenge for this new product is to provide aerosol optical thickness and single scattering albedo from the near ultraviolet to the visible (330-500 nm) over land and ocean. In this presentation the methods for deriving the OM1 aerosol product will be presented. Part of these methods developed for OM1 can already be applied to TOMS data and results of such analysis will be shown.

Veefkind, J. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Potential of Medical Drones: An Analysis of Current and Future Use Cases

Modern Application of Medical-Based Drone Delivery Drones have been used advantageously by militaries for nearly a century, but their uses in civilian life are still mostly cutting-edge, if not theoretical. After a decade of bold proclamations, Amazon’s “PrimeAir” drone delivery system is still in the stage of “preparing” for deliveries, while the public awaits for start ups like SkyDrop (formerly Flirtey) to follow through on impressive promises. Despite the well-publicized disappointment so far in commercial drone delivery, medical drone delivery has already proven itself practical and cheap in several countries, and it promises to expand in the coming years. Drones are uniquely suited to make valuable and urgent deliveries to remote areas, quickly transporting medical supplies where road transportation is prohibitively slow or not available at all. Drones have been used notably to deliver AEDs for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, frequently beating first-responders to the scene; to deliver blood when there is none on hand at hospitals; to deliver vaccines to an island nation with little transportation infrastructure; and to respond flexibly to medical emergencies in a war zone. Economics make the delivery of food and other cheap goods by drone unattractive in the near-term, but the value and time-sensitivity of medical deliveries mean that drones are already saving lives in healthcare. “We believe the value of new technology is most valuable where it is clearly needed...that’s why we wanted to focus on drones delivering medicine and not delivering pizzas, ”said one executive of a drone system manufacturer. The immediate prospects for the expansion of medical drone use are many; however, they do not exist without their own drawbacks and challenges. Most obvious is the limited range of current commercially-available drones, most of which are isolated to a perimeter of roughly 18 miles. Technological know-how presents another barrier to integration of medical drones on a larger scale. Reports from the United Nations frequently cite a“skill deficit”—a prohibitively low number of qualified drone operators in low-and moderate-income countries (LMICs). Another perhaps more discreet speed bump in global drone development and usage are the various regulations on drone usage. Drone technology has developed so quickly that many states, out of an excess of caution, have nearly snuffed out the fledgling industry with regulation. There also exist significant concerns over the security of private citizens, the efficacy of medical deliveries, and the costs of drone operation. It is these last three barriers which this study will seek to overcome. Put simply, the prospect for human development in LMICs from drone-based medical delivery is far too great to disregard. As of 2020, 3.4 billion people live in rural communities, containing fewer than 5,000 people/km^2. Often lacking infrastructure, these communities are largely isolated from their more populated, urban counterparts. In drones lies the potential to reshape the geographic and developmental distinctions that divide the global population. This development must, therefore, begin first and foremost with advancement in regional well-being and life expectancy. Life expectancy makes up a key facet of human development. The United Nations relies on it as a key indicator of a state’s health. Lars Kunze of the Dortmund University Department of Economic sex plains this as a matter of physical capital accumulation. The longer people live, the more they save as opposed to spend. The more they save, the more which eventually gets invested in themselves and the community as a whole. In providing medical products via drone, it is the intention of this study to enable communities with the means and incentives for long-run savings and investment for future economic development. Through a close analysis of Vanuatu, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Ukraine—four states where drones are currently used to deliver medical supplies—this study develops a framework that LMICs in general and Mexico and particular can adopt and to use medical drones in difficult-to-reach communities for the sake of long-run human developmental initiatives.

Ryan Teoh↗

NASA NTRS2012

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Climate↗

NASA NTRS2020

Design and Analysis of Buckling-Critical Large-Scale Sandwich Composite Cylindrical Test Articles

It has long been established in the literature that the buckling response of thin-shell structures can be very sensitive to the presence of small geometric and loading imperfections. The Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF) was established by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to develop analysis-based shell buckling design recommendations for stiffened-metallic and composite launch-vehicle shell structures. Large-scale buckling tests were used to validate the modeling and analysis methods applied in developing these analysis-based recommendations. Herein, the test article design methodology for 8-ft-diameter, honeycomb-core sandwich composite cylinder validation tests is discussed and cylinder designs are presented. In this methodology, first, the sandwich composite design space was defined using several nondimensional parameters, and the desired test article design space was determined by examining the designs of launch-vehicle cylinder structures. Essentially all test article designs within certain design parameters were generated and then downselected based on simple closed-form failure calculations and the nondimensional design-space parameters. Four of these designs that spanned a significant portion of the design space of interest and had global buckling as the first predicted failure mode were selected and subjected to higher-fidelity finite element analyses (FEAs): shell-element-based analyses, axisymmetric-element-based analyses, and global-local analyses. The analysis flow discussed in this report supported the design objective. As the analysis flow progressed, designs were downselected so the fidelity of the analysis methods, and consequently their computational cost and accuracy, was increased. The selection of the FEA types created an analysis framework where particular methods complemented each other and reduced the uncertainty of the predicted test article responses. The analysis results are illustrated using several designs when the computationally expeditious closed-form analysis stage is discussed. Once this stage is complete, the higher-fidelity FEA types are illustrated using one selected detailed test article design. Both perfect and imperfect test article geometries were considered.

Buckling↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of Temperature Profiles Retrieved from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES) Observations to the GSFC Synthetic Mars Model Atmosphere

Part of the task of interpreting IR spectral features observed by MGS/TES due to surface minerals requires distinguishing those IR signatures from atmospheric signatures of gas and dust. Surface-atmosphere separation for MGS/TES depends on knowledge of the retrieved temperature profile. In turn, the temperature retrieval Erom the observed data depends on molecular parameters including 15 micron CO2 line shape or line intensities which contribute to defining the Mars synthetic radiative transfer model. Using a simple isothermal, homogeneous single layer model of Pinnock and Shine, we find the ratio of (the error in degrees Kelvin of the retrieved temperature profile) to (the percentage error in the absorption coefficient) (deg K/percent) to be 0.4 at 200K. This ratio at 150K and 250K is 0.2 and 0.6, respectively. A more refined model, incorporating observed MGS/TES retrieved temperature profiles, the TES instrumental resolution and the most recent molecular modelling, will yield an improved knowledge of this error sensitivity. We present results of such a sensitivity study to determine the dependence of temperature profiles inverted from MGS/TES on these and other molecular parameters. This work was supported in part by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program.

Maguire, William C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Post-Buckling Analysis of Curved Honeycomb Sandwich Panels Containing Interfacial Disbonds

A numerical study on the effect of facesheet-core disbonds on the post-buckling response of curved honeycomb sandwich panels is presented herein. This work was conducted as part of the development of a damage tolerance plan for the next-generation Space Launch System heavy lift launch vehicle payload fairing. As such, the study utilized full-scale fairing barrel segments as the structure of interest. The panels were composed of carbon fiber reinforced polymer facesheets and aluminum honeycomb core. The panels were analyzed numerically using the finite element method incorporating geometric nonlinearity. In a predetermined circular region, facesheet and core nodes were detached to simulate a disbond, between the outer mold line facesheet and honeycomb core, induced via low-speed impact. Surface-to-surface contact in the disbonded region was invoked to prevent interpenetration of the facesheet and core elements and obtain realistic stresses in the core. The diameter of this disbonded region was varied and the effect of the size of the disbond on the post-buckling response was observed. Significant changes in the slope of the edge load-deflection response were used to determine the onset of global buckling and corresponding buckling load. Finally, several studies were conducted to determine the sensitivity of the numerical predictions to refinement in the finite element mesh.

elastic buckling↗

NASA NTRS2003

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Precision X-band radio Doppler and ranging navigation: Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario

This article describes an error covariance analysis based on a Mars Observer mission scenario; the study was performed to establish the navigation performance that can potentially be achieved in a demonstration of precision two-way X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging with the Mars Observer spacecraft planned for next year, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in ground system error modeling assumptions. Orbit determination error statistics computed for a 182-day Doppler and ranging data arc predicted Mars approach orbit determination accuracies of about 0.45 micro-rad in an angular sense, using a conservative ground system error model as a baseline. When less-conservative error model assumptions were employed, it was found that orbit determination accuracies of 0.19 to 0.30 micro-rad could be obtained; the level of accuracy of the assumed Mars ephemeris is about 0.11 micro-rad. In comparison, Doppler-only performance with the baseline error model was predicted to be about 1.30 to 1.51 micro-rad, although it was found that when improved station location accuracies and Global Positioning System-based tropospheric calibration accuracies were assumed, accuracies of 0.44 to 0.52 micro-rad were predicted. In the Doppler plus ranging cases, the results were relatively insensitive to variations in ranging system and station delay calibration uncertainties of a few meters and tropospheric zenith delay calibration uncertainties of a few centimeters.

Estefan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's Manual

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security. T/BESt's sotware framework, status, beginner-to-expert operation, interface architecture, analysis module addition, and key analysis modules are discussed. Representative examples of T/BEST benefit analyses are shown.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation: 2. Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations: Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations - 2

We have adopted the transport scenarios used in Part 1 to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric aircraft perturbations to transport changes in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric residence time and reduced the magnitude of the negative perturbation response in total ozone. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the residence time and enhanced the global scale negative total ozone response. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and results in a significantly weaker perturbation response, relative to the base case, throughout the stratosphere. We found a relatively minor model perturbation response sensitivity to the magnitude of K(sub yy) in the tropical stratosphere, and only a very small sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion. These transport simulations also revealed a generally strong correlation between passive NO(sub y) accumulation and age of air throughout the stratosphere, such that faster transport rates resulted in a younger mean age and a smaller NO(y) mass accumulation. However, specific variations in K(sub yy) and mesospheric gravity wave strength exhibited very little NO(sub y)-age correlation in the lower stratosphere, similar to 3-D model simulations performed in the recent NASA "Models and Measurements" II analysis. The base model transport, which gives the most favorable overall comparison with inert tracer observations, simulated a global/annual mean total ozone response of -0.59%, with only a slightly larger response in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere. For transport scenarios which gave tracer simulations within some agreement with measurements, the annual/globally averaged total ozone response ranged from -0.45% to -0.70%. Our previous 1995 model exhibited overly fast transport rates, resulting in a global/annually averaged perturbation total ozone response of -0.25%, which is significantly weaker compared to the 1999 model. This illustrates how transport deficiencies can bias model simulations of stratospheric aircraft.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Interannual Variability in Intercontinental Transport

We have investigated the importance of intercontinental transport using source-receptor relationship. A global radon-like and seven regional tracers were used in three-dimensional model simulations to quantify their contributions to column burdens and vertical profiles at world-wide receptors. Sensitivity of these contributions to meteorological input was examined using different years of meteorology in two atmospheric simulations. Results show that Asian emission influences tracer distributions in its eastern downwind regions extending as far as Europe with major contributions in mid- and upper troposphere. On the western and eastern sides of the US, Asian contribution to annual average column burdens are 37% and 5% respectively with strong monthly variations. At an altitude of 10 km, these contributions are 75% and 25% respectively. North American emissions contribute more than 15% to annual average column burden and about 50% at 8 km altitude over the European region. Contributions from tropical African emissions are wide-spread in both the hemispheres. Differences in meteorological input cause non-uniform redistribution of tracer mass throughout the troposphere at all receptors. We also show that in model-model and model-data comparison, correlation analysis of tracer's spatial gradients provides an added measure of model's performance.

Gupta, Mohan↗

NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Posselt, Derek J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Advanced Occupant Models to Quantify Injury Risk for eVTOL Vehicles

Urban transportation is currently evolving from traditional ground-based vehicles (cars, taxis, and buses) to include air-based electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles which can be utilized for on-demand transportation, cargo transport, and emergency services. These new eVTOL vehicles are designed to be small, lightweight, and able to operate autonomously without user intervention. Safety is a big part of eventual eVTOL adoption, however gaps in the consideration of safety features exist. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) are used in aerospace crashworthiness standards to quantify occupant injury risk and develop improved safety designs for emergency landing situations, but the ATDs currently used in aircraft certification requirements were developed many decades ago. Developments have occurred over the years involving ATD technology, which includes a host of newer and more biofidelic ATDs such as the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR). Increased computing power has also allowed for detailed computational human body models (HBMs) to be created, such as the Global Human Body Model Consortium (GHBMC). This study aims to assess the capability of both HBMs and new ATD designs to identify injury mechanisms within eVTOL relevant emergency landing conditions. Finite element (FE) analysis was used to expand upon full-scale and seat level impact testing conducted by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to look at effects of occupant model configurations on prediction of injury. The GHBMC HBM and THOR ATD models were simulated in the seat level test conditions to characterize differences between these advanced assessment tools and traditional ATDs in the isolated seat loading environment. Results identified key differences in the responses from each of the models utilized and compared their impact response in head, neck, and spinal injury metrics. The THOR model identified potential risks for head injuries due to head impacts on the seat, however it predicted lower spinal loads than the other occupant surrogates. The GHBMC showed distinctly different biomechanical responses compared to the ATD. The GHBMC model is much more deformable than the ATDs and it exhibited higher distribution of forces and increased sensitivity to the duration of acceleration pulses. Both models incorporated into this study identified key mechanisms for injury that should be considered for passenger safety in the development of these novel aircraft. In addition, this study demonstrated the value of FE modeling for running a variety of complex human surrogates to identify potential injury mechanisms for consideration in regulation and development of new aircraft. Continued research in this field to improve validation these models will only lead to safer aircraft and more comprehensive safety measures.

Crashworthiness↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Advanced Occupant Models to Quantify Injury Risk for eVTOL Vehicles

Crashworthiness↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

mid-Holocene simulations↗

NASA NTRS2000

Preliminary Results from an Assimilation of TOMS Aerosol Observations Into the GOCART Model

At NASA Goddard we are developing a global aerosol data assimilation system that combines advances in remote sensing and modeling of atmospheric aerosols. The goal is to provide high resolution, 3-D aerosol distributions to the research community. Our first step is to develop a simple assimilation system for Saharan mineral aerosol. The Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation model (GOCART) provides accurate 3-D mineral aerosol size distributions that compare well with TOMS satellite observations. Surface, mobilization, wet and dry deposition, convective and long-range transport are all driven by assimilated fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-DAS. Our version of GOCART transports sizes from.08-10 microns and only simulates Saharan dust. TOMS radiance observations in the ultra violet provide information on the mineral and carbonaceous aerosol fields. We use two main observables in this study: the TOMS aerosol index (AI) which is directly related to the ratio of the 340 and 380 radiances and the 380 radiance. These are sensitive to the aerosol optical thickness, the single scattering albedo and the height of the aerosol layer. The Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS) uses the Data Assimilation Office's Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) to combine TOMS observations and GOCART model first guess fields. At this initial phase we only assimilate observations into the the GOCART model over regions of Africa and the Atlantic where mineral aerosols dominant and carbonaceous aerosols are minimal, Our preliminary results during summer show that the assimilation with TOMS data modifies both the aerosol mass loading and the single scattering albedo. Assimilated aerosol fields will be compared with assimilated aerosol fields from GOCART and AERONET observations over Cape Verde.

daSilva, Arlindo↗