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Results for “GAUSSIAN PROCESSES”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Machine learning inversion from scattering for mechanically driven polymers
A machine learning inversion method is developed for analyzing scattering functions of mechanically driven polymers and extracting the corresponding feature parameters, which include energy parameters and conformation variables. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds constrained by bending energy, and it is subject to external forces such as stretching and shear. We generate a data set consisting of random combinations of energy parameters, including bending modulus, stretching and shear force, along with Monte Carlo-calculated scattering functions and conformation variables such as end-to-end distance, radius of gyration and off-diagonal component of the gyration tensor. The effects of the energy parameters on the polymer are captured by the scattering function, and principal component analysis ensures the feasibility of the machine learning inversion. Finally, we train a Gaussian process regressor using part of the data set as a training set and validate the trained regressor for inversion using the rest of the data. The regressor successfully extracts the feature parameters.
Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.
Super-resolution and signal separation in contact Kelvin probe force microscopy of electrochemically active ferroelectric materials
In this work, imaging mechanisms in contact Kelvin probe force microscopy (cKPFM) are explored via information theory-based methods. Gaussian processes are used to achieve super-resolution in the cKPFM signal, effectively extrapolating across the spatial and parameter space. Tensor factorization is applied to reduce the multidimensional signal to the tensor convolution of the scalar functions that show a clear trending behavior with the imaging parameters. These methods establish a workflow for the analysis of the multidimensional datasets that can then be related to the relevant physical mechanisms. We also provide an interactive Google Colab notebook that goes through all the analyses discussed in the paper.
Analysis of differential scanning calorimetry data for aged plutonium
Differential scanning calorimetry data for samples of a 52 year old plutonium alloy with 3.3 at. % Ga that were heated beyond the melting point is analyzed using transition state theory to find activation energies for the δ to ε and ε to liquid phase transitions. A Bayesian statistical method involving a Gaussian process model is used to find mean values and confidence intervals for the activation energies. The activation energy for the δ to ε phase transition increases by 3.3 ± 3.8% per decade, relative to the case when all age related plutonium lattice point defects have been removed through annealing. The corresponding increase in activation energy for the ε to liquid transition is shown to be 7.1 ± 1.8% per decade. It is postulated that the change in activation energy with age for both phase transitions is caused, in part, by the accumulation of the same type of lattice point defects associated with the observed increase in elastic bulk modulus over time.
Bayesian batch optimization for molybdenum versus tungsten inertial confinement fusion double shell target design
Access to reliable, clean energy sources is a major concern for national security. Much research is focused on the “grand challenge” of producing energy via controlled fusion reactions in a laboratory setting. For fusion experiments, specifically inertial confinement fusion (ICF), to produce sufficient energy, the fusion reactions in the ICF fuel need to become self-sustaining and burn deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel efficiently. The recent record-breaking NIF ignition shot was able to achieve this goal as well as produce more energy than used to drive the experiment. This achievement brings self-sustaining fusion-based power systems closer than ever before, capable of providing humans with access to secure, renewable energy. In order to further progress toward the actualization of such power systems, more ICF experiments need to be conducted at large laser facilities such as the United States's National Ignition Facility (NIF) or France's Laser Mega-Joule. The high cost per shot and limited number of shots that are possible per year make it prohibitive to perform large numbers of experiments. As such, experimental design relies heavily on complex predictive physics simulations for high-fidelity “preshot” analysis. These multidimensional, multi-physics, high-fidelity simulations have to account for a variety of input parameters as well as modeling the extreme conditions (pressures and densities) present at ignition. Such simulations (especially in 3D) can become computationally prohibitive to turn around for each ICF experiment. In this work, we explore using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) to find optimal designs for ICF double shell targets, while keeping computational costs to manageable levels. These double shell targets have an inner shell that grades from beryllium on the outer surface to the higher Z material molybdenum, as opposed to the nominally used tungsten, on the inside in order to trade off between the high performance associated with high density inner shells and capsule stability. We describe our results for “capsule-only” xRAGE simulations to study the physics between different capsule designs, inner shell materials, and potential for future experiments.
Applying Constrained Bayesian Optimization to the Design of Critical Experiments
Often when planning a criticality experiment, many design configurations are iteratively investigated with a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is that the experiment will be optimal with respect to some variable, like the fraction of fissions occurring at a certain energy range, while simultaneously being critical. Unfortunately, the Monte Carlo transport simulations are expensive, which can ultimately limit the number of configurations that can be explored. In this work, we present how Gaussian processes (GPs) can be used as a reduced-order model in a constrained Bayesian optimization (CBO) algorithm to design a criticality experiment. The GPs replace the Monte Carlo transport simulations that explore the design space. The CBO algorithm efficiently identifies new points in the design space to run the Monte Carlo transport code while respecting the criticality constraint. It does so in a manner that both improves the accuracy of the GP and finds the approximate global optimum. We demonstrate the performance of CBO with the design of a Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) for the criticality safety validation of nuclear waste models of the Hanford Tank Farm.
Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants
Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.
Infinite neural network quantum states: entanglement and training dynamics
We study infinite limits of neural network quantum states (∞-NNQS), which exhibit representation power through ensemble statistics, and also tractable gradient descent dynamics. Ensemble averages of entanglement entropies are expressed in terms of neural network correlators, and architectures that exhibit volume-law entanglement are presented. The analytic calculations of entanglement entropy bound are tractable because the ensemble statistics are simplified in the Gaussian process limit. A general framework is developed for studying the gradient descent dynamics of neural network quantum states (NNQS), using a quantum state neural tangent kernel (QS-NTK). For ∞-NNQS the training dynamics is simplified, since the QS-NTK becomes deterministic and constant. An analytic solution is derived for quantum state supervised learning, which allows an ∞-NNQS to recover any target wavefunction. Numerical experiments on finite and infinite NNQS in the transverse field Ising model and Fermi Hubbard model demonstrate excellent agreement with theory. ∞-NNQS opens up new opportunities for studying entanglement and training dynamics in other physics applications, such as in finding ground states.
Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs
We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.
Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation
Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.
Multi-objective Bayesian optimization of ferroelectric materials with interfacial control for memory and energy storage applications
Optimization of materials’ performance for specific applications often requires balancing multiple aspects of materials’ functionality. Even for the cases where a generative physical model of material behavior is known and reliable, this often requires search over multidimensional function space to identify low-dimensional manifold corresponding to the required Pareto front. In this work, we introduce the multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) workflow for the ferroelectric/antiferroelectric performance optimization for memory and energy storage applications based on the numerical solution of the Ginzburg–Landau equation with electrochemical or semiconducting boundary conditions. MOBO is a low computational cost optimization tool for expensive multi-objective functions, where we update posterior surrogate Gaussian process models from prior evaluations and then select future evaluations from maximizing an acquisition function. Using the parameters for a prototype bulk antiferroelectric (PbZrO 3 ), we first develop a physics-driven decision tree of target functions from the loop structures. We further develop a physics-driven MOBO architecture to explore multidimensional parameter space and build Pareto-frontiers by maximizing two target functions jointly—energy storage and loss. This approach allows for rapid initial materials and device parameter selection for a given application and can be further expanded toward the active experiment setting. The associated notebooks provide both the tutorial on MOBO and allow us to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems (https://github.com/arpanbiswas52/MOBO_AFI_Supplements).
Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models
This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.
MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications
Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.
Predictions of Boron Phase Stability Using an Efficient Bayesian Machine Learning Interatomic Potential
Thermodynamic phase stability of three elemental boron allotropes, i.e., α-B, β-B, and γ-B, was investigated using a Bayesian interatomic potential trained via a sparse Gaussian process (SGP). SGP potentials trained with datasets from on-the-fly active learning achieve quantum mechanical level accuracy when employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict wide-ranging thermodynamic, structural, and vibrational properties. The simulated phase diagram (500~1400 K and 0~16 GPa) agrees with experimental measurements. The SGP-based MD simulations also successfully predicted that the B13 defect is critical in stabilizing β-B below 700 K. At higher temperatures, the entropy becomes the dominant factor, making β-B the more stable phase over α-B. Furthermore, this Letter demonstrates that SGP potentials based on a training set consisting of defect-free-only systems could make correct predictions of defect-related phenomena in solid-state crystals, paving the path to investigate crystal phase stability and transitions.
Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning
To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.
TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). II. A 17 Myr Old Transiting Hot Jupiter in the Sco-Cen Association
We present the discovery of a transiting hot Jupiter orbiting HIP 67522 (T {sub eff} ∼ 5650 K; M {sub *} ∼ 1.2M {sub ⊙}) in the 10–20 Myr old Sco-Cen OB association. We identified the transits in the TESS data using our custom notch filter planet search pipeline and characterize the system with additional photometry from Spitzer; spectroscopy from SOAR/Goodman, SALT/HRS, LCOGT/NRES, and SMARTS/CHIRON; and speckle imaging from SOAR/HRCam. We model the photometry as a periodic Gaussian process with transits to account for stellar variability and find an orbital period of 6.9596{sub −0.000015}{sup +0.000016} days and radius of 10.02{sub −0.53}{sup +0.54} R {sub ⊕}. We also identify a single transit of an additional candidate planet with radius 8.01{sub −0.71}{sup +0.75} R {sub ⊕} that has an orbital period of ≳23 days. The validated planet HIP 67522b is currently the youngest transiting hot Jupiter discovered and is an ideal candidate for transmission spectroscopy and radial velocity follow-up studies, while also demonstrating that some young giant planets either form in situ at small orbital radii or else migrate promptly from formation sites farther out in the disk.
Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning
X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.