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At least 379 records · Page 21

Aluminum-26 in the early solar system - Fossil or fuel

The isotopic composition of Mg was measured in different phases of a Ca-Al-rich inclusion in the Allende meteorite. Large excesses of Mg-26 of up to 10% were found. These excesses correlate strictly with the Al-27/Mg-24 ratio for four coexisting phases with distinctive chemical compositions. Models of in situ decay of Al-26 within the solar system and of mixing of interstellar dust grains containing fossil Al-26 with normal solar system material are presented. The observed correlation provides definitive evidence for the presence of Al-26 in the early solar system. This requires either injection of freshly synthesized nucleosynthetic material into the solar system immediately before condensation and planet formation, or local production within the solar system by intense activity of the early sun. Planets promptly produced from material with the inferred Al-26/Al-27 would melt within about 300,000 years.

Lee, T.↗

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

In this article we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions in the region. We find that more than a doubling of annual investments, in absolute terms, occurs in the business-as-usual scenario between 2010 and 2050, while investments may treble over the same time horizon when climate policies are introduced. However, investment costs as a share of GDP decline over time in the business-as-usual scenario, as well as the climate policy scenarios, due to the fast economic growth in that region. Business-as-usual cumulative investments of 1.4 trillion US$ are anticipated between 2010 and 2050 in energy supply, and increase when additional climate policies are introduced: under a carbon tax of 50 $/tCO 2 e in 2020 increasing with a rate of 4% per year, an additional 0.6 trillion US$ (+45%) investment is needed. Climate control measures lead to increased investment in low-carbon electricity technologies, primarily wind, solar, and CCS applied to fossil fuels and biomass. Our analysis suggests that compared to the business-as-usual case an average additional 21 billion US$ per year of electricity supply investments is required in Latin America until 2050 under a climate policy aiming at 2°C climate stabilization. Conversely, there is a disinvestment in fossil fuels. For oil production, a growth from 58 billion US$ to 130 billion US$ annual investment by 2050 is anticipated in a business-as-usual scenario: ambitious climate policy reduces this to 28 billion US$. Finally, mobilizing necessary additional investment capital, in particular for low-carbon technologies, will be a challenge, and suitable frameworks and enabling environments for a scale-up in public and private investment will be critical to help reach required levels. The economic case for such a transition still remains to be articulated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determinants of CO{sub 2} emissions in ASEAN countries using energy and mining indicators

Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the main greenhouse gas emitted from human activities. Industrial revolution is one of the triggers to accelerate the quantity of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere which lead to undesirable changes in the cycle of carbon. Like China and United States which are affected by the economic development growth, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} level in ASEAN countries is expected to be higher from year to year. This study focuses on energy and mining indicators, namely alternative and nuclear energy, energy production, combustible renewables and waste, fossil fuel energy consumption and the pump price for diesel fuel that contribute to CO{sub 2} emissions. Six ASEAN countries were examined from 1970 to 2010 using panel data approach. The result shows that model of cross section-fixed effect is the most appropriate model with the value of R-squared is about 86%. Energy production and fossil fuel energy consumption are found to be significantly influenced to CO{sub 2} emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2

The electric grid is a highly complex, interconnected machine, and changing one part of the grid can have consequences elsewhere. Adding wind and solar affects the operation of the other power plants and adding high penetrations can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study(WWSIS-2) evaluated these costs and emissions and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of wind and solar on the fossil-fueled fleet. This built on Phase 1, one of the largest wind and solar integration studies ever conducted, which examined operational impacts of high wind and solar penetrations in the West.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2

The electric grid is a highly complex, interconnected machine, and changing one part of the grid can have consequences elsewhere. Adding wind and solar affects the operation of the other power plants and adding high penetrations can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-2) evaluated these costs and emissions and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of wind and solar on the fossil-fueled fleet. This built on Phase 1, one of the largest wind and solar integration studies ever conducted, which examined operational impacts of high wind and solar penetrations in the West(GE Energy 2010).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (Executive Summary)

The electric grid is a highly complex, interconnected machine, and changing one part of the grid can have consequences elsewhere. Adding wind and solar affects the operation of the other power plants and adding high penetrations can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-2) evaluated these costs and emissions and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of wind and solar on the fossil-fueled fleet. This built on Phase 1, one of the largest wind and solar integration studies ever conducted, which examined operational impacts of high wind and solar penetrations in the West(GE Energy 2010).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate Forcing and Trends of Organic Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes three main atmospheric configurations: the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with simplified chemistry and a simplified organic aerosol (OA) scheme, CAM6 with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-chem), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6). Both, CAM6-chem and WACCM6 include a more comprehensive secondary organic aerosols (SOA) approach using the volatility basis set (vbs) scheme and prognostic stratospheric aerosols. This paper describes the different OA schemes available in the different atmospheric configurations of CESM2 and discusses differences in aerosol burden and resulting climate forcings. Derived OA burden and trends differ due to differences in OA formation using the different approaches. Regional differences in Aerosol Optical Depth with larger values using the comprehensive approach occur over SOA source regions. Stronger increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 in WACCM6 compared to CAM6 are due to increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Using the comprehensive SOA approach further leads to improved comparisons to aircraft observations and SOA formation of ˜143 Tg/yr. We further use WACCM6 to identify source contributions of OA from biogenic, fossil fuel, and biomass burning emissions, to quantify SOA amounts and trends from these sources. Increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 are the result of increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Biogenic emissions are at least two thirds of the total SOA burden. In addition, SOA source contributions from fossil fuel emissions become more important, with largest values over Southeast Asia. The estimated total anthropogenic forcing of OA in WACCM6 for 1995–2010 conditions is -0.43 W/m2, mostly from the aerosol direct effect.

Tilmes, S↗

Residual fossil CO 2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO 2 emissions, of which residual CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO 2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$\$$130–420 per tCO 2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO 2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO 2 commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO 2 , further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO 2 removal.

Luderer, Gunnar↗

Life Cycle Assessment of Bioethanol Production: A Case Study from Poplar Biomass Growth in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Biomass appears to be one of the most prominent renewable resources for biofuels such as bioethanol, mainly due to its better environmental performance compared with fossil fuels. This study addresses a comprehensive environmental performance of bioethanol production, employing empirical data from hybrid poplar grown in the U.S. The study considers 1 MJ as a functional unit and employs a cradle-to-grave approach, which entails the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar, transport to a biorefinery, bioconversion of the biomass process, and fuel use. On average, bioconversion is the main contributor to environmental degradation in all the categories evaluated (77%). The second main contributor is either the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar (17%) or fuel use (6%), depending on the environmental category. Thus, focusing on only one category may induce a misinterpretation of the environmental performance of bioethanol production. Finally, environmental credits in the global warming potential (GWP) category were obtained from the carbon sequestered in the biomass during the growing period and from avoided fossil fuel emissions due to electricity production from a renewable source. This means that the net GWP of the life cycle of bioethanol from poplar biomass is slightly negative (–1.05 × 10 –3 kg CO 2 -eq·MJ –1 ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements

Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

New market potential: Torrefaction of woody biomass

Biomass was the primary source of energy worldwide until a few generations ago, when the energy-density, storability and transportability of fossil fuels enabled one of the most rapid cultural transformations in the history of humankind: the industrial revolution. In just a few hundred years, coal, oil and natural gas have prompted the development of highly efficient, high-volume manufacturing and transportation systems that have become the foundation of the world economy. But over-reliance on fossil resources has also led to environmental and energy security concerns. In addition, one of the greatest advantages of using biomass to replace fossil fuels is reduced greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

American Samoa: Unlocking Renewable Energy Potential

Located approximately between Hawaii and New Zealand, American Samoa is the only U.S. territory in the southern hemisphere. American Samoa faces similar climate and energy resilience challenges as other Pacific islands: geographic remoteness, dependence on imported fossil fuels, and increased vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, cyclones, and tsunamis. In 2022, the average electricity price for residential customers in American Samoa was approximately 45 cents/kilowatt-hour (kWh) - almost three times the U.S. average of 15 cents/kWh. Renewable energy represents a small but growing power system contribution, although American Samoa relies almost entirely on imported fossil fuels. The territory possesses substantial solar resources and wind and biomass resource potential. Planned renewable power projects include utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation with battery storage systems.

American Samoa↗

Bioenergy in Energy Transformation and Climate Management

Unlike fossil fuels, biomass is a renewable resource that can sequester carbon during growth, be converted to energy, and then re-grown. Biomass is also a flexible fuel that can service many end-uses. This paper explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a model comparison of fifteen models, we characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives—reducing radiative forcing to 3.7 and 2.8 W/m2 in 2100 (approximately 550 and 450 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent atmospheric concentrations). Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 2 to 10% per annum reaching 5 to 35 percent of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 15 to 50 percent of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 percent of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 percent of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation costs and world consumption. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels. We also find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of global large-scale bioenergy is merited.

Rose, Steven K.↗

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗

Catalytic Processes to Accelerate Decarbonization in a Net-Zero Carbon World

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is one of the critical challenges to mitigate global climate change, which is having detrimental impacts on society and the environment. Fossil fuel combustion in transportation, power generation, and industrial processes is the dominant contributor to carbon emissions. Over the past decades, sustainable solutions and strategies have been investigated and developed to enable decarbonization. Catalysis plays an essential role to address this global challenge by increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, capturing carbon dioxide, and utilizing clean energy sources to displace fossil fuels. In this Review, the role of catalysis in reducing energy demand was discussed, enhancing process efficiency, displacing carbon-intensive feedstocks and products, and therefore, reducing carbon emissions. Here, recent advances in catalyst development were summarized, focusing on applications to enhance industrial processes efficiency and enable utilization of clean energy sources. Emerging approaches in catalysis were reviewed, including the manufacture of iron and steel, direct air capture of CO 2 , production of ethylene, ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuels, plastic recycling, and the synthesis of biobased plastics. The Review was concluded with suggested research directions to achieve a carbon net-zero world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Configuration selection study for isolated loads using parabolic dish modules

A configuration tradeoff study has been conducted to determine optimum solar thermal parabolic dish power systems for isolated load applications. The specific application of an essentially constant power demand as required for MX missile shelters is treated. Supplying a continuous level of power with high reliability is shown to require a power system comprising modular parabolic dish power units where the heat engines of the modular power units can be driven by fossil fuels as well as solar-derived heat. Since constraints on reliability result in the provision of a power generating capability that exceeds the constant demand level, efficient utilization of the power system requires battery storage. Tradeoffs regarding the optimum size of storage are investigated as a function of the number of power modules and the cost of the fossil fuel which is used to meet the demand when insolation is unavailable and storage is depleted.

Revere, W.↗

Configuration selection study for isolated loads using parabolic dish modules

A configuration tradeoff study was conducted to determine optimum solar thermal parabolic dish power systems for isolated load applications. The specific application of an essentially constant power demand as required for MX missile shelters is treated. Supplying a continuous level of power with high reliability is shown to require a power system comprising modular parabolic dish power units where the heat engines of the modular power units can be driven by fossil fuels as well as solar-derived heat. Since constraints on reliability result in the provision of a power generating capability that exceeds the constant demand level, efficient utilization of the power system requires battery storage. Tradeoffs regarding the optimum size of storage are investigated as a function of the number of power modules and the cost of the fossil fuel.

Revere, W.↗

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes

Our overarching goal was to develop and utilize an observation-based analysis framework to assess interactions between climate and mosaics of land use, land cover and urbanization on regional carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and potential changes associated with land management and climate. Carbon, water and energy cycling was quantified for the range of current and potential land uses under present and future climates. The study region of Oregon has a strong climatic gradient from the coastal mesic forests (2500mm ppt) to the Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, and the Northern Great Basin semi-arid “cold desert” to the east (300 mm). The study was focused on the effects of (1) conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and Willamette Valley agricultural crops to bioenergy production; (2) afforestation of idle land and rangelands deemed suitable for forests or poplar crops under future climate conditions. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP), the net of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, was 10 times higher in the high biomass forests of the Coast Range compared with drier regions like sagebrush in the Northern Great Basin, which was nearly zero (Schmidt et al. 2016). The state total NEP averaged about 30 teragrams carbon (Tg C) per year for the years 2012 to 2014 using our model framework that we developed for predictions of current and future NEP, and compared well with our detailed inventory estimates (28 Tg C annual average for 2011-2015 for forests only; Law et al. 2017). Running our model framework until the year 2050, we found that climate alone only increased NEP by less than 1 Tg C per decade (~3%) using the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, however, changes are expected to be more rapid in subsequent years. We evaluated the possibility of land use change from grass seed crops to poplar for bioenergy, which slightly increased NEP by 2050. The most important variable for carbon sequestration estimates (net carbon sources and sinks) is net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), which accounts for NEP and losses associated with harvest removals and wildfire emissions. Here, we focus on forests because they have the largest effect on carbon sequestration. We found that NECB in Oregon averaged 18.8 Tg C per year in 2011-2015, offsetting fossil fuel emissions (16 Tg C per year). Annual fire emissions reducing NECB by about 5% (0.97 Tg C per year) in the state. The mesic Coast Range and West Cascades ecoregions that make up the western third of Oregon account for 60% of the forest NECB. This analysis illustrates that annual emissions from forests disturbances are low relative to annual fossil fuel emissions for the same area (Law et al. 2017, Hudiburg et al. in review).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗