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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetism in metastable and annealed compositionally complex alloys

Compositionally complex materials (CCMs) present a potential paradigm shift in the design of magnetic materials. These alloys exhibit long-range structural order coupled with limited or no chemical order. As a result, extreme local environments exist with a large variations in the magnetic energy terms, which can manifest large changes in the magnetic behavior. In the current work, the magnetic properties of (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni) alloys are presented. These materials were prepared by room-temperature combinatorial sputtering, resulting in a range of compositions with a single bcc structural phase and no chemical ordering. The combinatorial growth technique allows CCMs to be prepared outside of their thermodynamically stable phase, enabling the exploration of otherwise inaccessible order. The mixed ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic interactions in these alloys causes frustrated magnetic behavior, which results in an extremely low coercivity (<1mT), which increases rapidly at 50 K. At low temperatures, the coercivity achieves values of nearly 500 mT, which is comparable to some high-anisotropy magnetic materials. Further, commensurate with the divergent coercivity is an atypical drop in the temperature dependent magnetization. These effects are explained by a mixed magnetic phase model, consisting of ferro-, antiferro-, and frustrated magnetic regions, and are rationalized by simulations. A machine-learning algorithm is employed to visualize the parameter space and inform the development of subsequent compositions. Annealing the samples at 600 °C orders the sample, more-than doubling the Curie temperature and increasing the saturation magnetization by as much as 5×. Simultaneously, the large coercivities are suppressed, resulting in magnetic behavior that is largely temperature independent over a range of 350 K. The ability to transform from a hard magnet to a soft magnet over a narrow temperature range makes these materials promising for heat-assisted recording technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

FastML Science Benchmarks: Accelerating Real-Time Scientific Edge Machine Learning

Applications of machine learning (ML) are growing by the day for many unique and challenging scientific applications. However, a crucial challenge facing these applications is their need for ultra low-latency and on-detector ML capabilities. Given the slowdown in Moore's law and Dennard scaling, coupled with the rapid advances in scientific instrumentation that is resulting in growing data rates, there is a need for ultra-fast ML at the extreme edge. Fast ML at the edge is essential for reducing and filtering scientific data in real-time to accelerate science experimentation and enable more profound insights. To accelerate real-time scientific edge ML hardware and software solutions, we need well-constrained benchmark tasks with enough specifications to be generically applicable and accessible. These benchmarks can guide the design of future edge ML hardware for scientific applications capable of meeting the nanosecond and microsecond level latency requirements. To this end, we present an initial set of scientific ML benchmarks, covering a variety of ML and embedded system techniques.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower potential derived from streamflow extremes for Alaska, USA

Alaska is an expansive region known for its abundant natural resources, including thousands of miles of streams and rivers. These rivers represent potential opportunities for future hydropower development that could provide reliable energy supply for local communities. There is limited long-term high temporal resolution streamflow data available for the region, making data-driven estimates of potential hydropower and its variability across the state challenging. This study provides a novel data-driven approach for hydropower capacity estimation across Alaska. We use supervised machine learning to develop a relationship between the daily and peak flow duration curves in order to augment the size of our dataset from 44 sites to 67 sites. We perform a stochastic hydropower estimation across the 67 sites and identify approximately 1000 MW of total potential hydropower capacity distributed across these sites. Our study provides the first step towards more comprehensive hydropower estimation for this critical region, highlighting the need for future work integrating high-resolution spatial data, community needs, and economic constraints in estimates of potential hydropower development in Alaska.

Hydropower↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, the development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting the properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate the thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict the phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate the accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with the diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

On-chip probabilistic inference for charged-particle tracking at the sensor edge

Modern scientific instruments operate under increasingly extreme constraints on bandwidth, latency, and power. Inference at the sensor edge determines experimental data collection efficiency by deciding which information to save for further analysis. Particle tracking detectors at the Large Hadron Collider exemplify this challenge: pixelated silicon sensors generate rich spatiotemporal ionization patterns, yet most of this information is discarded due to data-rate limitations. Concurrently, advancements in co-design tools provide rapid turn-around for incorporating machine learning into application-specific integrated circuits, motivating designs for particle detectors with new integrated technologies. We demonstrate that neural networks embedded in the front-end electronics can infer charged-particle kinematic parameters from a single silicon layer. We regress hit positions and incident angles with calibrated uncertainties, while satisfying stringent constraints on numerical precision, latency, and silicon area. Our results establish a path toward probabilistic inference directly at the edge, opening new opportunities for intelligent sensing in high-rate scientific instruments.

Das, Arghya Ranjan [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000000018451↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precision spectroscopy of fast, hot, exotic isotopes using machine-learning-assisted event-by-event Doppler correction

We propose an experimental scheme for performing sensitive, high-precision laser spectroscopy studies on fast exotic isotopes. By inducing a stepwise resonant ionization of the atoms traveling inside an electric field and subsequently detecting the ion and the corresponding electron, time-, and position-sensitive measurements of the resulting particles can be performed. Using a mixture density network, we can leverage this information to predict the initial energy of individual atoms and thus apply a Doppler correction of the observed transition frequencies on an event-by-event basis. We conduct numerical simulations of the proposed experimental scheme and show that kHz-level uncertainties can be achieved for ion beams produced at extreme temperatures ( > 10 8 K), with energy spreads as large as 10 keV and nonuniform velocity distributions. The ability to perform in-flight spectroscopy, directly on highly energetic beams, offers unique opportunities to study short-lived isotopes with lifetimes in the millisecond range and below, produced in low quantities, in hot and highly contaminated environments, without the need for cooling techniques. Such species are of marked interest for nuclear structure, astrophysics, and new physics searches. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Udrescu, S. M. (ORCID:000000021989576X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutron Identification Capabilities in MicroBooNE Through the Application of Machine Learning with Blips

Neutrinos (ν) are subatomic particles first observed in 1956 by LANL physicists Clyde Cowan and Frederick Reines but first theorized by Wolfgang Pauli in 1930. Neutrinos are the least massive known particle and are classified as leptons with 3 flavors corresponding to their leptonic counterparts (electron, muon, and tau). We know that they are abundant, 65 billion neutrinos travel through your fingertip every second, and elusive, a single neutrino could fly through a lightyear of lead without interacting at all. Though, there is much still unknown and a better characterization of these “ghostly” particles can give us clues as to the matter/anti-matter asymmetry in the early universe and possible glimpses into new physics. To measure a particle that is extremely light and rarely interacting, physicists have developed an extremely sensitive detector known as a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC). The fiducial volume (or TPC) is bombarded with neutrinos, some of which interact with argon (Ar) atoms to produce particles that in turn excite and ionize the Ar. The products of these are free electrons which then drift through the TPC’s applied magnetic field towards a multi-plane wire readout system. The electrons’ charge is collected at this anode and the light from the initial interactions is collected by photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). In conjunction, these mechanisms allow LArTPCs to achieve millimeter spatial resolution and sub-MeV energy thresholds. The detector of interest in this study is the MicroBooNE Experiment at Fermilab. MicroBooNE is an above ground LArTPC with dimensions of approximately 10m × 2.5m × 2.3m, about the size of a school bus. Its purpose is to study neutrinos, so to improve rates of measured ν interactions, the detector is squarely in the path of the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab. A major challenge in neutrino studies is energy reconstruction, much of the neutrino’s original energy is lost in interactions that the detector is not sensitive to, often due to low-energy products. The initial goal of this analysis was to better identify neutrons, the main source of poor energy reconstruction in neutrino events. Because neutrons are neutral particles, like neutrinos, we can only directly measure the products of their interactions in LArTPCs. Most of these products are low-energy signals and while each one contributes a negligible amount of energy, collectively these signals make up most of the lost energy in each neutrino event. We define these signals as blips; point-like, isolated depositions of charge in the detector. Blips have MeV-scale energies and are the size of a single hit (charge deposition) or a cluster of a few hits on at least two wire planes. Blips are the principal detector features used to study low-energy physics; thus, they are the key to unlocking information not only about neutrons but gamma photons, supernova and solar neutrinos as well as helping us better identify certain particles. Therefore, this analysis strives to use blips for improved neutron identification (ID) and characterization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Active Learning Guided Computational Discovery of Plant-Based Redoxmers for Organic Nonaqueous Redox Flow Batteries

Organic nonaqueous redox flow batteries (ONRFBs) are promising energy storage devices due to their scalability and reliance on sourceable materials. However, finding suitable redox-active organic molecules (redoxmers) for these batteries remains a challenge. Using plant-based compounds as precursors for these redoxmers can decrease their costs and environmental toxicity. In this computational study, flavonoid molecules have been examined as potential redoxmers for ONRFBs. Flavone and isoflavone derivatives were selected as catholyte (positive charge carrier) and anolyte (negative charge carrier) molecules, respectively. To drive their redox potentials to the opposite extremes, in silico derivatization was performed using a novel algorithm to generate a library of > 40000 candidate molecules that penalizes overly complex structures. A multiobjective Bayesian optimization based active learning algorithm was then used to identify best redoxmer candidates in these search spaces. Furthermore, our study provides methodologies for molecular design and optimization of natural scaffolds and highlights the need of incorporating expert chemistry awareness of the natural products and the basic rules of synthetic chemistry in machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Energy Density Physics of Inertial Confinement Fusion Ablator Materials

The historic December 5, 2022 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) reached fusion energy ignition for the first time. This is the most important scientific breakthrough of the 21st century paves the way to future clean inertial fusion energy (IFE). The diamond (high density carbon (HDC)) ablator material used in this experiment displays detrimental effects due to the development of hydrodynamic instabilities at the diamond/fuel interface under shock compression. New alternatives to diamond ablators are required to step up the energy yield in ICF experiments. The unique combination of mechanical strength (approaching that of diamond), the ability to accommodate high-Z dopants (in contrast to diamond), and the tunability of the properties (through synthesis material with varying sp 3 content) make amorphous carbon (a-C) a promising material for next-generation IFE ablative capsules. However, despite its critical importance to the IFE program, the behavior of a-C carbon at extreme temperatures and pressures remains largely unexplored. The primary goals of this project were to perform groundbreaking dynamic compression experiments and predictive simulations to uncover the fundamental high-energy-density physics of amorphous carbon. Our goals were (1) to uncover the metastability range of amorphous carbon and probe phase transitions to diamond or metastable supercooled liquid carbon; (2) to acquire high-quality equation of state (EOS) data and develop an experimentally validated EOS from machine-learning MD simulations of the complex states of carbon; and (3) to uncover the complex behavior of carbon liquid in both thermodynamically stable and metastable supercooled states by accessing large areas of carbon phase diagram with amorphous samples with variable sp 3 content. Our proposed experimental program included measurements of equation of state and diffraction measurements using the Omega EP laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics at the University of Rochester. The theoretical/simulation program involved the development of machine-learning models of the complex response of amorphous carbon under dynamic compression by performing molecular dynamics simulations at experimental time and length scales using leadership class DOE supercomputers. Simulations guided experiments to observe predicted phenomena and acquire critical experimental data in specific pressure-temperature domains to validate theoretical models. This research delivered fundamental properties of novel amorphous carbon IFE ablator material, including phase diagram and EOS. These results will aid in IFE target design and implosion experiments. A unique combination of predictive simulations and dynamic and static experiments provided a highly inspirational intellectual environment for graduate students and postdocs involved in this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine‐Learning‐Driven Exploration of Surface Reconstructions of Reduced Rutile TiO 2

Abstract Titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) is widely used as a catalyst support due to its stability, tunable electronic properties, and surface oxygen vacancies, which are crucial for catalytic processes such as the reverse water‐gas shift (RWGS) reaction. Reduced TiO 2 surfaces undergo complex surface reconstructions that endow unique properties but are computationally challenging to describe. In this study, we utilize machine‐learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) integrated with an active‐learning workflow to efficiently explore reduced rutile TiO 2 surfaces. This approach enabled the prediction of a phase diagram as a function of oxygen chemical potential, revealing a variety of reconstructed phases, including a previously unreported subsurface shear plane structure. We further investigate the electronic properties of these surfaces and validate our results by comparing experimental and theoretical high‐resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). Our findings provide new insights into how extreme surface reductions influence the structural and electronic properties of TiO 2 , with potential implications for catalyst design.

Lee, Yonghyuk [Chemistry and Biochemistry Universi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cognitive simulation models for inertial confinement fusion: Combining simulation and experimental data

The design space for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments is vast, and experiments are extremely expensive. Researchers rely heavily on computer simulations to explore the design space in search of high-performing implosions. However, ICF multiphysics codes must make simplifying assumptions, and thus deviate from experimental measurements for complex implosions. For more effective design and investigation, simulations require input from past experimental data to better predict future performance. In this work, we describe a cognitive simulation method for combining simulation and experimental data into a common, predictive model. This method leverages a machine learning technique called “transfer learning,” the process of taking a model trained to solve one task, and partially retraining it on a sparse dataset to solve a different, but related task. In the context of ICF design, neural network models are trained on large simulation databases and partially retrained on experimental data, producing models that are far more accurate than simulations alone. Here, we demonstrate improved model performance for a range of ICF experiments at the National Ignition Facility and predict the outcome of recent experiments with less than 10% error for several key observables. We discuss how the methods might be used to carry out a data-driven experimental campaign to optimize performance, illustrating the key product—models that become increasingly accurate as data are acquired.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep energy-pressure regression for a thermodynamically consistent EOS model

Abstract In this paper, we aim to explore novel machine learning (ML) techniques to facilitate and accelerate the construction of universal equation-Of-State (EOS) models with a high accuracy while ensuring important thermodynamic consistency. When applying ML to fit a universal EOS model, there are two key requirements: (1) a high prediction accuracy to ensure precise estimation of relevant physics properties and (2) physical interpretability to support important physics-related downstream applications. We first identify a set of fundamental challenges from the accuracy perspective, including an extremely wide range of input/output space and highly sparse training data. We demonstrate that while a neural network (NN) model may fit the EOS data well, the black-box nature makes it difficult to provide physically interpretable results, leading to weak accountability of prediction results outside the training range and lack of guarantee to meet important thermodynamic consistency constraints. To this end, we propose a principled deep regression model that can be trained following a meta-learning style to predict the desired quantities with a high accuracy using scarce training data. We further introduce a uniquely designed kernel-based regularizer for accurate uncertainty quantification. An ensemble technique is leveraged to battle model overfitting with improved prediction stability. Auto-differentiation is conducted to verify that necessary thermodynamic consistency conditions are maintained. Our evaluation results show an excellent fit of the EOS table and the predicted values are ready to use for important physics-related tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: Uncertainties in eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes in a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem caused by gap-filling approaches

Abstract. Gap-filling eddy covariance CO2 fluxes is challenging at dryland sites due to small CO2 fluxes. Here, four machine learning (ML) algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) are employed and evaluated for gap-filling CO2 fluxes over a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem with different lengths of artificial gaps. The ANN and RF algorithms outperform the KNN and SVM in filling gaps ranging from hours to days, with the RF being more time efficient than the ANN. Performances of the ANN and RF are largely degraded for extremely long gaps of 2 months. In addition, our results suggest that there is no need to fill the daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) gaps separately when using the ANN and RF. With the ANN and RF, the gap-filling-induced uncertainties in the annual NEE at this site are estimated to be within 16 g C m−2, whereas the uncertainties by the KNN and SVM can be as large as 27 g C m−2. To better fill extremely long gaps of a few months, we test a two-layer gap-filling framework based on the RF. With this framework, the model performance is improved significantly, especially for the nighttime data. Therefore, this approach provides an alternative in filling extremely long gaps to characterize annual carbon budgets and interannual variability in dryland ecosystems.

Yao, Jingyu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Pattern Recognition in the PMU Signals in the WECC system

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) data has been used by multiple power system applications, including state estimation, post event analysis, oscillation detection, model validation, and many others. Still, due to its big data nature and availability to general research institutions, comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanisms are incomplete. This study applies a set of signal processing and machine learning approaches aiming at deciphering the characteristic behaviors of multiple phasor measurement units (PMUs) attributes (e.g., voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, phase angle), including their auto-correlation, cross-dependence, similarities and discrepancies across units and temporal scales, and distributions of anomalies and their linkages to potential external factors such as weather events. Data analytics are applied to PMUs from the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PMU measurements, recorded events, outages, and weather extremes are all from real world datasets. The findings from the study and mechanistic understanding of the PMU dynamics help provide guidance on system control or preventing blackouts. The derived metrics can be directly used for adjusting or filtering simulated PMU data used for advanced algorithm development.

Hou, Zhangshuan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Experiments and Well Logs to Predict Caney Shale Static Mechanical Properties During Production with Supervised Machine Learning

Caney shale is one of the emerging oil reservoirs in Oklahoma. Understanding the impact of effective stress on its mechanical properties is critical for predicting hydraulic fracture geometry and overall hydrocarbon production. The objective of our study is to evaluate the impact of effective stress on the dynamic Young’s modulus using ultrasonic velocity measurements for Caney shale samples. A triaxial cell was utilized to measure ultrasonic (P-wave and S-wave) velocities for ten downhole Caney shale samples under various effective stresses to indirectly assess the impact of pore pressure change. The dynamic Young’s moduli estimated from these measurements were integrated with available conventional well logs (excluding sonic logs) and triaxial test results from Benge et al. (2021) to predict the static Young’s modulus using Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The results showed that the estimated dynamic Young’s moduli from ultrasonic measurements were higher than the corresponding static Young’s modulus of cores from the same vertical well at similar depths. With increasing effective stress, the dynamic Young’s modulus increased for all samples. The estimated dynamic-to-static correction factor tended to be higher in zones of high neutron porosity (PHIN) and low density compared to other zones. Finally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for RF and XGBoost models identified depth, gamma ray (GR), and PHIN as key features for predicting the static Young’s modulus. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamic and static Young’s moduli for the Caney shale interval, as a function of effective stress and conventional well logs. The findings from this study can improve predictions of production throughout the well's lifespan by offering insights into the mechanical property degradation resulting from pore pressure depletion.

Kholy, Sherif M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗