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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe, yet there is no consensus on its response to global warming. Several modelling studies find a stronger ENSO in global warming scenarios, while other studies suggest ENSO weakening. Using a broad range of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and four types of warming experiments, here we show that the majority of the models predict a stronger ENSO by century-end in Shared Social Pathway (SSP) experiments, and in idealized 1pctCO 2 and abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments. Several models, however, do predict no change or ENSO weakening, especially in the idealized experiments. Critically, the strongest forcing (abrupt-4xCO 2 ) does not induce the strongest ENSO response, while differences between the models are much greater than those between warming scenarios. For the long-term response (over 1000 years) the models disagree even on the sign of change. Furthermore, changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability are only modestly correlated with the tropical Pacific mean state change. The highest correlation for ENSO SST amplitude is found with the mean zonal SST gradient in the SSP5-8.5 experiment (R = –0.58). In contrast, changes in ENSO rainfall variability correlate well with changes in the mean state, as well as with changes in ENSO SST variability. When evaluating the Bjerknes Stability Index for a subset of models, we find that it is not a reliable predictor of ENSO strengthening, as this index tends to predict greater stability with warming. We argue that the enhanced ENSO stability is offset by increases in atmospheric noise or/and potential nonlinear effects. However, a robust inter-model mechanism that can explain a stronger ENSO simulated with global warming is still lacking. Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering ENSO changes based on a single model or warming scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical lacustrine sediment microbial community response to an extreme El Niño event

Salinity can influence microbial communities and related functional groups in lacustrine sediments, but few studies have examined temporal variability in salinity and associated changes in lacustrine microbial communities and functional groups. To better understand how microbial communities and functional groups respond to salinity, we examined geochemistry and functional gene amplicon sequence data collected from 13 lakes located in Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2° N, 157° W) in July 2014 and June 2019, dates which bracket the very large El Niño event of 2015–2016 and a period of extremely high precipitation rates. Lake water salinity values in 2019 were significantly reduced and covaried with ecological distances between microbial samples. Specifically, phylum- and family-level results indicate that more halophilic microorganisms occurred in 2014 samples, whereas more mesohaline, marine, or halotolerant microorganisms were detected in 2019 samples. Functional Annotation of Prokaryotic Taxa (FAPROTAX) and functional gene results (nifH, nrfA, aprA) suggest that salinity influences the relative abundance of key functional groups (chemoheterotrophs, phototrophs, nitrogen fixers, denitrifiers, sulfate reducers), as well as the microbial diversity within functional groups. Accordingly, we conclude that microbial community and functional gene groups in the lacustrine sediments of Kiritimati show dynamic changes and adaptations to the fluctuations in salinity driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves: Preprint

A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not captured in engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.

cfd↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves

A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high-fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not predicted by potential flow engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

Extreme weather events are the common causes for power supply interruptions and power outages in electrical distribution systems. Improving the distribution system and enhancing its resilience is becoming crucial due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Preparation and allocation of multiple flexible resources, such as mobile resources, fuel resources, and labor resources before extreme weather events can mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Here, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) is proposed to optimize the preparation and resource allocation process for upcoming extreme weather events, which leads to faster and more efficient post-event restoration. The objective of the proposed two-stage SMILP is to maximize the served load and minimize the operating cost of flexible resources. The first stage in the optimization problem selects the amounts and locations of different resources. The second stage considers the operational constraints of the distribution system and repair crew scheduling constraints. The proposed stochastic pre-event preparation model is solved by a scenario decomposition method, Progressive Hedging (PH), to ease the computational complexity introduced by a large number of scenarios. Furthermore, to show the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on system resilience, three types of PV systems are considered during a power outage and the resilience improvements with different PV penetration levels are compared. Numerical results from simulations on a large-scale (more than 10,000 nodes) distribution feeder have been used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Power System Resilience Metrics and Evaluation Approach: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging topic and plays an essential role in helping power industry understand and respond to the increasing threats of extreme weather events. The first step of power system resilience analysis is to introduce metrics to quantify the resilience reasonably. Existing resilience metrics are typically restrained by the limited data for extreme event modeling and fall short in terms of physical interpretation and comparability. This paper develops novel quantitative metrics to evaluate power system resilience in pre- and post-event contexts. The developed metrics illustrate clear physical meanings and can be effectively used to compare resilience across different systems under different extreme events. Moreover, the developed metrics can be applied to both transmission and distribution systems. Simulation on a distribution system is employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed resilience metrics and resilience evaluation approach.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven Community-centered Resilient Assessment and Planning Toolkit for Nexus of Energy and Water (DCRAPT-NEW)

Urban areas, including Detroit and Pittsburgh, have suffered significant dual outages of the electrical and water infrastructure in the past decade due, in part, to the increasing number of extreme weather events. With increasing temperatures and rainfall intensity, these regions need to prepare for increasing extreme events through community-based energy and water resilience analysis, planning, and enhancement. This project developed a suite of open-source, open-access, community-centered, data-driven assessment and distributed energy resource (DER) and planning tools for energy and water resilience enhancement in urban areas. Through establishing a multi-level community awareness and engagement mechanism and a comprehensive collection of power outage and flooding data, an innovative group of community energy and water resilience assessment and planning tools have been developed for a wide range of users with differing and variable sets of data available to them. The developed tools include (1) DOE EAGLE-I data-driven, deep-learning assisted resilience assessment and DER planning tools at the county level with socioeconomic factors incorporated; (2) Utility annual power outage data-driven tools for long term resilience assessment and DER planning and 15-min power outage data-driven tools for short term resilience assessment and planning; (3) Detailed engineering tools for energy and water systems resilience assessment and planning when the system topology and component fragility curves are available; (4) Alternative Resiliency Metric Calculation that extracts and separates outage and restoration processes; and (5) Co-optimization tools that evaluate the resilience of the power and sewage system and allow users to conduct joint planning with energy and wastewater systems. The developed tools provide planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders with powerful capabilities to systematically evaluate system/community resilience and optimal and actionable guidance for enhancing resilience while prioritizing DER investments. The tools have been used and validated in Detroit and Pittsburgh and can be used in other areas of the nation. In addition, this project will (1) advance the knowledge and applications of machine-learning methods in analyzing and fusing different layers of information and generating meaningful data points such as generating rare weather events; (2) significantly improve the energy and water resilience of the identified communities in Detroit and Pittsburgh and prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions; (3) help communities assess extreme weather event impacts and address short-term and long-term resilience-related issues The developed tools have been made public via GitHub and demonstrated to community stakeholders and utility companies via the two annual workshops and numerous community engagement meetings. The project outcomes are also disseminated through publications in various journals and conference proceedings, and presentations at top conferences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report

Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation

Abstract Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological characteristics of extreme ozone pollution events in China and their future predictions

Ozone (O 3 ) has become one of the most concerning air pollutants in China in recent decades. In this study, based on surface observations, reanalysis data, global atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and multi-model future predictions, meteorological characteristics conducive to extreme O 3 pollution in various regions of China are investigated, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. During the most severe O 3 polluted months, the chemical production of O 3 is enhanced under the hot and dry conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) in June 2018 and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in July 2017, while regional transport is the main reason for the severe O3 pollution over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in July 2015 and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in September 2019. Over the last 4 decades, the frequencies of high-temperature and low-relative-humidity conditions increased in 2000–2019 relative to 1980–1999, indicating that O 3 pollution in both the NCP and YRD has become more frequent under historical climate change. In the SCB and PRD, the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns similar to those during the most polluted months increased, together with the more frequent hot and dry conditions, contributing to the increases in severe O 3 pollution in the SCB and PRD during 1980–2019. In the future (by 2100), the frequencies of months with anomalous high temperature show stronger increasing trends in the high-forcing scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5)) compared to the sustainable scenario (SSP1-2.6) in China. It suggests that high anthropogenic forcing will not only lead to slow economic growth and climate warming but also likely result in environmental pollution issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Fast and Scalable Genetic Algorithm-Based Approach for Planning of Microgrids in Distribution Networks

As a result of climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks; thus, the level of proactive preparation of the distribution system to be able to handle severe impacts of extreme weather events represents the system's resilience. One method that distribution system planners can use to prepare for future extreme events is to plan multiple microgrids which can use local generation as much as possible to supply critical loads. But partitioning an existing distribution system such that multiple feasible islands are planned and which are capable of supporting critical loads is still challenging for distribution systems - first, because of the size of the network graph partitioning problem and, second, because of the difficulty in properly formulating the desired attributes of such islands or microgrids. Therefore, this paper presents a genetic algorithm based approach that facilitates incorporating multiple objectives for grid partitioning by formulating two types of problems - node allocation and edge elimination - and it considers multiple topological and resilience-enhancing objectives. The performance of the proposed genetic algorithm-based approach is numerically evaluated on multiple test systems as well as on a real distribution feeder in Colorado, United States.

genetic algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying heat extremes in China attributed to rising greenhouse gases and declining aerosols since the 2010s

Rising temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature events over China in recent decades. The upward trends in heat extremes in China in the warm season (May–September) and their relationships with changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model results. Significant increasing trends in China are observed in daily maximum temperatures (TXx), heatwave frequency, and heatwave mean duration during 2011–2023, with increasing rates of 0.70 °C/decade, 3.77 d/decade and 0.31 d/event/decade, respectively. This study shows that 43 ± 3% of the TXx increases in China are attributed to the rising CO2 concentrations. Aerosol optical depth in China decreased at a rate of 0.054 per decade from 2011 to 2023 due to significant air quality improvements. The weakened aerosol cooling effect due to declining aerosols contributes 27 ± 3% to the observed TXx trend. In eastern China, where aerosol reductions were most significant, aerosol reduction even accounts for 79 ± 10% of the TXx increasing trend. The intensifying heat waves attributed to GHGs and aerosols are in accordance with the increasing extreme high temperatures. The results highlight the significant impacts of rising GHGs and decreasing aerosols on heat extreme events over China in recent years, emphasizing the need of considering both GHGs and aerosols to address the issue of intensification of heat extremes in a warming future.

Zou, Aili↗