SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Early Test”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2008

Development and Testing of Space Fission Technology at NASA-MSFC

The Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) at NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides a capability to perform hardware-directed activities to support multiple inspace nuclear reactor concepts by using a non-nuclear test methodology. This includes fabrication and testing at both the module/component level and near prototypic reactor configurations allowing for realistic thermal-hydraulic evaluations of systems. The EFF-TF is currently performing non-nuclear testing of hardware to support a technology development effort related to an affordable fission surface power (AFSP) system that could be deployed on the Lunar surface. The AFSP system is presently based on a pumped liquid metal-cooled reactor design, which builds on US and Russian space reactor technology as well as extensive US and international terrestrial liquid metal reactor experience. An important aspect of the current hardware development effort is the information and insight that can be gained from experiments performed in a relevant environment using realistic materials. This testing can often deliver valuable data and insights with a confidence that is not otherwise available or attainable. While the project is currently focused on potential fission surface power for the lunar surface, many of the present advances, testing capabilities, and lessons learned can be applied to the future development of a low-cost in-space fission power system. The potential development of such systems would be useful in fulfilling the power requirements for certain electric propulsion systems (magnetoplasmadynamic thruster, high-power Hall and ion thrusters). In addition, inspace fission power could be applied towards meeting spacecraft and propulsion needs on missions further from the Sun, where the usefulness of solar power is diminished. The affordable nature of the fission surface power system that NASA may decide to develop in the future might make derived systems generally attractive for powering spacecraft and propulsion systems in space. This presentation will discuss work on space nuclear systems that has been performed at MSFC's EFF-TF over the past 10 years. Emphasis will be place on both ongoing work related to FSP and historical work related to in-space systems potentially useful for powering electric propulsion systems.

Polzin, Kurt↗

NASA NTRS2015

Robonaut 2 - Building a Robot on the International Space Station

In 2010, the Robonaut Project embarked on a multi‐phase mission to perform technology demonstrations on‐board the International Space Station (ISS), showcasing state of the art robotics technologies through the use of Robonaut 2 (R2). This phased approach implements a strategy that allows for the use of ISS as a test bed during early development to both demonstrate capability and test technology while still making advancements in the earth based laboratories for future testing and operations in space. While R2 was performing experimental trials onboard the ISS during the first phase, engineers were actively designing for Phase 2, Intra‐Vehicular Activity (IVA) Mobility, that utilizes a set of zero‐g climbing legs outfitted with grippers to grasp handrails and seat tracks. In addition to affixing the new climbing legs to the existing R2 torso, it became clear that upgrades to the torso to both physically accommodate the climbing legs and to expand processing power and capabilities of the robot were required. In addition to these upgrades, a new safety architecture was also implemented in order to account for the expanded capabilities of the robot. The IVA climbing legs not only needed to attach structurally to the R2 torso on ISS, but also required power and data connections that did not exist in the upper body. The climbing legs were outfitted with a blind mate adapter and coarse alignment guides for easy installation, but the upper body required extensive rewiring to accommodate the power and data connections. This was achieved by mounting a custom adapter plate to the torso and routing the additional wiring through the waist joint to connect to the new set of processors. In addition to the power and data channels, the integrated unit also required updated electronics boards, additional sensors and updated processors to accommodate a new operating system, software platform, and custom control system. In order to perform the unprecedented task of building a robot in space, extensive practice sessions and meticulous procedures were required. Since crew training time is at a premium, the R2 team took a skills‐based training approach to ensure the astronauts were proficient with a basic skill set while refining the detailed procedures over several practice sessions and simulations. In addition to the crew activities, meticulous ground procedures were required in order to upgrade firmware on the upper body motor drivers. The new firmware for the IVA mobility unit needed to be deployed using the old software system. This also provided an opportunity to upgrade the upper body joints with new software and allowed for limited insight into the success of the updates. Complete verification that the updated firmware was successfully loaded was not confirmed until the rewiring of the upper body torso was complete.

Diftler, Myron↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Serial Testing After Exposure to COVID-19 in Early Care and Education Facilities, Illinois, March–May 2022

Objective: To understand SARS-CoV-2 transmission in early care and education (ECE) settings, we implemented a Test to Stay (TTS) strategy, which allowed children and staff who were close contacts to COVID-19 to remain in person if they agreed to test twice after exposure. We describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission, testing preferences, and the number of in-person days saved among participating ECE facilities. Methods: From March 21 through May 27, 2022, 32 ECE facilities in Illinois implemented TTS. Unvaccinated children and staff who were not up to date with COVID-19 vaccination could participate if exposed to COVID-19. Participants received 2 tests within 7 days after exposure and were given the option to test at home or at the ECE facility. Results: During the study period, 331 TTS participants were exposed to index cases (defined as people attending the ECE facility with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result during the infectious period); 14 participants tested positive, resulting in a secondary attack rate of 4.2%. No tertiary cases (defined as a person with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within 10 days after exposure to a secondary case) occurred in the ECE facilities. Most participants (366 of 383; 95.6%) chose to test at home. Remaining in-person after an exposure to COVID-19 saved approximately 1915 in-person days among children and staff and approximately 1870 parent workdays. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low in ECE facilities during the study period. Serial testing after COVID-19 exposure among children and staff at ECE facilities is a valuable strategy to allow children to remain in person and parents to avoid missing workdays.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

NASA NTRS2000

Early Years of NASA Ames Flight Research

A review of select flight research programs illustrate the challenges of conducting flight tests in the early years of flight testing. The results show significant contributions to advance progress in aeronautics.

Anderson, Seth B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Testing of Liquid Metal Components for Nuclear Surface Power Systems

The Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) was established by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to provide a capability for performing hardware-directed activities to support multiple in-space nuclear reactor concepts by using a non-nuclear test methodology. This includes fabrication and testing at both the module/component level and near prototypic reactor configurations. The EFF-TF is currently supporting an effort to develop an affordable fission surface power (AFSP) system that could be deployed on the Lunar surface. The AFSP system is presently based on a pumped liquid metal-cooled (Sodium-Potassium eutectic, NaK-78) reactor design. This design was derived from the only fission system that the United States has deployed for space operation, the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) 10A reactor, which was launched in 1965. Two prototypical components recently tested at MSFC were a pair of Stirling power conversion units that would be used in a reactor system to convert heat to electricity, and an annular linear induction pump (ALIP) that uses travelling electromagnetic fields to pump the liquid metal coolant through the reactor loop. First ever tests were conducted at MSFC to determine baseline performance of a pair of 1 kW Stirling convertors using NaK as the hot side working fluid. A special test rig was designed and constructed and testing was conducted inside a vacuum chamber at MSFC. This test rig delivered pumped NaK for the hot end temperature to the Stirlings and water as the working fluid on the cold end temperature. These test were conducted through a hot end temperature range between 400 to 550C in increments of 50 C and a cold end temperature range from 30 to 70 C in 20 C increments. Piston amplitudes were varied from 6 to 1 1mm in .5 mm increments. A maximum of 2240 Watts electric was produced at the design point of 550 hot end, 40 C cold end with a piston amplitude of 10.5mm. This power level was reached at a gross thermal efficiency of 28%. A baseline performance map was established for the pair of 1kW Stirling convertors. The performance data will then be used for design modification to the Stirling convertors. The ALIP tested at MSFC has no moving parts and no direct electrical connections to the liquid metal containing components. Pressure is developed by the interaction of the magnetic field produced by the stator and the current which flows as a result of the voltage induced in the liquid metal contained in the pump duct. Flow is controlled by variation of the voltage supplied to the pump windings. Under steady-state conditions, pump performance is measured for flow rates from 0.5-4.3 kg/s. The pressure rise developed by the pump to support these flow rates is roughly 5-65 kPa. The RMS input voltage (phase-to-phase voltage) ranges from 5-120 V, while the frequency can be varied arbitrarily up to 60 Hz. Performance is quantified at different loop temperature levels from 50 C up to 650 C, which is the peak operating temperature of the proposed AFSP reactor. The transient response of the pump is also evaluated to determine its behavior during startup and shut-down procedures.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Luminescence properties of Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} co-doped SiO{sub x}N{sub y} thin films: Prospects for color tunability in silicon-based hosts

In this work, the role of the nitrogen content, the annealing temperature, and the sample morphology on the luminescence properties of Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} co-doped SiO{sub x}N{sub y} thin films has been investigated. An increasing nitrogen atomic percentage has been incorporated in the host matrix by gradually replacing oxygen with nitrogen during fabrication while maintaining the Si content unaltered, obtaining a sequential variation in the film composition from nearly stoichiometric SiO{sub 2} to SiO{sub x}N{sub y}. The study of rare earth doped single layers has allowed us to identify the parameters that yield an optimum optical performance from Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} ions. Ce{sup 3+} ions proved to be highly sensitive to the annealing temperature and the nitrogen content, showing strong PL emission for relatively low nitrogen contents (from 0 to 20%) and moderate annealing temperatures (800–1000 °C) or under high temperature annealing (1180 °C). Tb{sup 3+} ions, on the other hand, displayed a mild dependence on those film parameters. Rare earth co-doping has also been investigated by comparing the luminescence properties of three different approaches: (i) a Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} co-doped SiO{sub x}N{sub y} single layer, (ii) a bilayer composed of two SiO{sub x}N{sub y} single layers doped with either Ce{sup 3+} or Tb{sup 3+} ions, and (iii) a multilayer composed of a series of either Tb{sup 3+} or Ce{sup 3+}-doped SiO{sub x}N{sub y} thin films with interleaved SiO{sub 2} spacers. Bright green emission and efficient energy transfer from either Ce{sup 3+} ions or Ce silicates to Tb{sup 3+} ions has been observed in the co-doped single layer as a consequence of the strong ion-ion interaction. On the other hand, independent luminescence from Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} ions has been observed in the Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} co-doped bilayer and multilayer, providing a good scenario to develop light emitting devices with wide color tunability by varying the number of deposited films that contain each rare earth dopant. Moreover, the optoelectronic properties of Ce{sup 3+}- and/or Tb{sup 3+}-doped thin films have been studied by depositing transparent conductive electrodes over selected samples. An electroluminescence signal according to the rare earth transitions is obtained in all cases, validating the excitation of Ce{sup 3+} and Tb{sup 3+} ions upon electron injection. Also, the main charge transport of injected electrons has been evaluated and correlated with the layer stoichiometry. Finally, a simple reliability test has allowed disclosing the origin of the early breakdown of test devices, attributed to the excessive joule heating at filament currents that occur around a region close to the polarization point.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1980

Space Shuttle Orbiter status - April 1980

The Orbiter is in the final stages of preparation, proceeding toward mating with the other Shuttle flight hardware elements, preparatory to its maiden voyage. The first orbital vehicle, Columbia, has been undergoing manufacturing, modifications, and testing at KSC, and integrated vehicle processing is planned to continue prior to the planned STS-1 launch. In order to establish a national fleet of operational Orbiters, Space Shuttle production includes fabrication of two additional Orbiters, refurbishment of the Columbia after its use in the orbital flight test program and early operations, and conversion of the Orbiter structural test article to a flight operational Orbiter.

Jones, S. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Mass discrimination during weightlessness

An experiment concerned with the ability of astronauts to discriminate between the mass of objects when both the objects and the astronauts are in weightless states is described. The main object of the experiment is to compare the threshold for weight-discrimination on Earth with that for mass-discrimination in orbit. Tests will be conducted premission and postmission and early and late during the mission while the crew is experiencing weightlessness. A comparison of early and late tests inflight and postflight will reveal the rate of adaptation to zero-gravity and 1-g. The mass discrimination box holds 24 balls which the astronaut will compare to one another in a random routine.

Ross, H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of a Virtual Reactivity Feedback Control Loop in Non-Nuclear Testing of a Fast Spectrum Reactor

For a compact, fast-spectrum reactor, reactivity feedback is dominated by core deformation at elevated temperature. Given the use of accurate deformation measurement techniques, it is possible to simulate nuclear feedback in non-nuclear electrically heated reactor tests. Implementation of simulated reactivity feedback in response to measured deflection is being tested at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF). During tests of the SAFE-100 reactor prototype, core deflection was monitored using a high resolution camera. "virtual" reactivity feedback was accomplished by applying the results of Monte Carlo calculations (MCNPX) to core deflection measurements; the computational analysis was used to establish the reactivity worth of van'ous core deformations. The power delivered to the SAFE-100 prototype was then dusted accordingly via kinetics calculations, The work presented in this paper will demonstrate virtual reactivity feedback as core power was increased from 1 kilowatt(sub t), to 10 kilowatts(sub t), held approximately constant at 10 kilowatts (sub t), and then allowed to decrease based on the negative thermal reactivity coefficient.

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.↗

NASA NTRS1963

Component design, construction and evaluation for satellites

Components for a high-reliability system such as the Telstar project are obtained by: (a) design of the component for the required environment, (b) careful control of manufacturing processes, (c) elimination of potential early failures by screening tests, and (d) selection of the most stable components. For passive components, these methods could be applied by using design parameters, suppliers and screening techniques established in the earlier submarine cable program, with consideration being given to the additional effects of the satellite launch and orbit environments. Semiconductor component designs were selected by qualification tests using accelerated electrical and environmental stress conditions. Screening tests were applied to eliminate early failures, and resulting components were aged from two to six months before selection for the satellite. The recognition of the effect of ionizing radiation on transistors caused the addition of a radiation qualification test, or a screening to assure selection of the least sensitive devices. Tests have shown this screening to be effective for the radiation intensity expected. Experience with the passive components, and evaluation of the accelerated test results and aging data of the semiconductor devices, indicate that the reliability objective was obtained.

TELSTAR SATELLITE↗

NASA NTRS2020

TOI-1235 b: A Keystone Super-Earth for Testing Radius Valley Emergence Models around Early M Dwarfs

Small planets on close-in orbits tend to exhibit envelope mass fractions of either effectively zero or up to a few percent depending on their size and orbital period. Models of thermally driven atmospheric mass loss and of terrestrial planet formation in a gas-poor environment make distinct predictions regarding the location of this rocky/nonrocky transition in period–radius space. Here we present the confirmation of TOI-1235 b (P = 3.44 days, r(p)=1.738 (+0.087, -0.076) Rꚛ), a planet whose size and period are intermediate between the competing model predictions, thus making the system an important test case for emergence models of the rocky/nonrocky transition around early M dwarfs (R(s) = 0.630 ± 0.015 Rꙩ, M(s) = 0.640 ± 0.016 Mꙩ}$). We confirm the TESS planet discovery using reconnaissance spectroscopy, ground-based photometry, high-resolution imaging, and a set of 38 precise radial velocities (RVs) from HARPS-N and HIRES. We measure a planet mass of 6.91 (+0.75, -0.85) Mꚛ, which implies an iron core mass fraction of 20 (+15,-12)% in the absence of a gaseous envelope. The bulk composition of TOI-1235 b is therefore consistent with being Earth-like, and we constrain an H/He envelope mass fraction to be <0.5% at 90% confidence. Our results are consistent with model predictions from thermally driven atmospheric mass loss but not with gas-poor formation, suggesting that the former class of processes remains efficient at sculpting close-in planets around early M dwarfs. Our RV analysis also reveals a strong periodicity close to the first harmonic of the photometrically determined stellar rotation period that we treat as stellar activity, despite other lines of evidence favoring a planetary origin P= 21.8(+0.9, _0.8) days, m(p)sin i= 13.0 (+3.8,-5.3) Mꚛ) that cannot be firmly ruled out by our data.

Ryan Cloutier↗

NASA NTRS2020

TOI-1235 b: A Keystone Super-Earth for Testing Radius Valley Emergence Models around Early M Dwarfs

Small planets on close-in orbits tend to exhibit envelope mass fractions of either effectively zero or up to a few percent depending on their size and orbital period. Models of thermally driven atmospheric mass loss and of terrestrial planet formation in a gas-poor environment make distinct predictions regarding the location of this rocky/nonrocky transition in period–radius space. Here we present the confirmation of TOI-1235 b (P = 3.44 days, r(p)=1.738(+0.087,-0.076)R(ꚛ)), a planet whose size and period are intermediate between the competing model predictions, thus making the system an important test case for emergence models of the rocky/nonrocky transition around early M dwarfs (R(s) = 0.630 ± 0.015 R(ꙩ), M(s) = 0.640 ± 0.016 M(ꙩ)). We confirm the TESS planet discovery using reconnaissance spectroscopy, ground-based photometry, high-resolution imaging, and a set of 38 precise radial velocities (RVs) from HARPS-N and HIRES. We measure a planet mass of 6.91(+0.75,-0.85) M(ꚛ), which implies an iron core mass fraction of 20(+15,-12)% in the absence of a gaseous envelope. The bulk composition of TOI-1235 b is therefore consistent with being Earth-like, and we constrain an H/He envelope mass fraction to be <0.5% at 90% confidence. Our results are consistent with model predictions from thermally driven atmospheric mass loss but not with gas-poor formation, suggesting that the former class of processes remains efficient at sculpting close-in planets around early M dwarfs. Our RV analysis also reveals a strong periodicity close to the first harmonic of the photometrically determined stellar rotation period that we treat as stellar activity, despite other lines of evidence favoring a planetary origin (P=21.8(+0.9,-0.8) days, m(p) sin i= 13.0(+3.8,-5.3)M(ꚛ)) that cannot be firmly ruled out by our data.

Ryan Cloutier↗

DOE OSTI2020

TOI-1235 b: A Keystone Super-Earth for Testing Radius Valley Emergence Models around Early M Dwarfs

Small planets on close-in orbits tend to exhibit envelope mass fractions of either effectively zero or up to a few percent depending on their size and orbital period. Models of thermally driven atmospheric mass loss and of terrestrial planet formation in a gas-poor environment make distinct predictions regarding the location of this rocky/nonrocky transition in period–radius space. Here we present the confirmation of TOI-1235 b (P = 3.44 days, r{sub p}=1.738{sub −0.076}{sup +0.087} R{sub ⊕}), a planet whose size and period are intermediate between the competing model predictions, thus making the system an important test case for emergence models of the rocky/nonrocky transition around early M dwarfs (R {sub s} = 0.630 ± 0.015 R{sub ⊙}, M {sub s} = 0.640 ± 0.016 M{sub ⊙}). We confirm the TESS planet discovery using reconnaissance spectroscopy, ground-based photometry, high-resolution imaging, and a set of 38 precise radial velocities (RVs) from HARPS-N and HIRES. We measure a planet mass of 6.91{sub −0.85}{sup +0.75} M{sub ⊕}, which implies an iron core mass fraction of 20{sub −12}{sup +15}% in the absence of a gaseous envelope. The bulk composition of TOI-1235 b is therefore consistent with being Earth-like, and we constrain an H/He envelope mass fraction to be <0.5% at 90% confidence. Our results are consistent with model predictions from thermally driven atmospheric mass loss but not with gas-poor formation, suggesting that the former class of processes remains efficient at sculpting close-in planets around early M dwarfs. Our RV analysis also reveals a strong periodicity close to the first harmonic of the photometrically determined stellar rotation period that we treat as stellar activity, despite other lines of evidence favoring a planetary origin (P=21.8{sub −0.8}{sup +0.9} days, m{sub p}sin i=13.0{sub −5.3}{sup +3.8} M{sub ⊕}) that cannot be firmly ruled out by our data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Pegasus Air-Launched Space Booster Flight Test Program

Pegasus is a satellite-launching space rocket dropped from a B52 carrier aircraft instead of launching vertically from a ground pad. Its three-year, privately-funded accelerated development was carried out under a demanding design-to-nonrecurring cost methodology, which imposed unique requirements on its flight test program, such as the decision not to drop an inert model from the carrier aircraft; the number and type of captive and free-flight tests; the extent of envelope exploration; and the decision to combine test and operational orbital flights. The authors believe that Pegasus may be the first vehicle where constraints in the number and type of flight tests to be carried out actually influenced the design of the vehicle. During the period November 1989 to February of 1990 a total of three captive flight tests were conducted, starting with a flutter clearing flight and culminating in a complete drop rehearsal. Starting on April 5, 1990, two combination test/operational flights were conducted. A unique aspect of the program was the degree of involvement of flight test personnel in the early design of the vehicle and, conversely, of the design team in flight testing and early flight operations. Various lessons learned as a result of this process are discussed throughout this paper.

Elias, Antonio L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Salt Heater Test (FY19), Rev. 2

This report summarizes the 2019 fiscal year (FY19) status of the borehole heater test in salt funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) campaign. This report satisfies SFWST level-three milestone report M3SF-19SN010303033. This report is an update of the April 2019 level-two milestone report M2SF-19SNO10303031 to reflect the nearly complete as-built status of the borehole heater test. This report discusses the fiscal year 2019 (FY19) design, implementation, and preliminary data interpretation plan for a set of borehole heater tests call the brine availability tests in salt (BATS), which is funded by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a DOE Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) site. The organization of BATS is outlined in Project Plan: Salt In-Situ Heater Test (SNL, 2018). An early design of the field test is laid out in Kuhlman et al. (2017), including extensive references to previous field tests, which illustrates aspects of the present test. The previous test plan by Stauffer et al. (2015) places BATS in the context of a multi-year testing strategy, which involves tests of multiple scales and processes, eventually culminating in a drift-scale disposal demonstration. This level-3 milestone report is an update of a level-2 milestone report from April 2019 by the same name. The update adds as-built details of the heater test, which at the time of writing (August 2019) is near complete implementation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Mars Science Laboratory Flight Software Internal Testing

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) team is sending the rover, Curiosity, to Mars, and therefore is physically and technically complex. During my stay, I have assisted the MSL Flight Software (FSW) team in implementing functional test scripts to ensure that the FSW performs to the best of its abilities. There are a large number of FSW requirements that have been written up for implementation; however I have only been assigned a few sections of these requirements. There are many stages within testing; one of the early stages is FSW Internal Testing (FIT). The FIT team can accomplish this with simulation software and the MSL Test Automation Kit (MTAK). MTAK has the ability to integrate with the Software Simulation Equipment (SSE) and the Mission Processing and Control System (MPCS) software which makes it a powerful tool within the MSL FSW development process. The MSL team must ensure that the rover accomplishes all stages of the mission successfully. Due to the natural complexity of this project there is a strong emphasis on testing, as failure is not an option. The entire mission could be jeopardized if something is overlooked.

entry, descent, and landing (EDL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evolution of CO2 and H2O on Mars: A cold Early History?

The martian climate has long been thought to have evolved substantially through history from a warm and wet period to the current cold and dry conditions on the martian surface. This view has been challenged based primarily on evidence that the early Sun had a substantially reduced luminosity and that a greenhouse atmosphere would be difficult to sustain on Mars for long periods of time. In addition, the evidence for a warm, wet period of martian history is far from conclusive with many of the salient features capable of being explained by an early cold climate. An important test of the warm, wet early Mars hypothesis is the abundance of carbonates in the crust [1]. Recent high precision isotopic measurements of the martian atmosphere and discoveries of carbonates on the martian surface provide new constraints on the evolution of the martian atmosphere. This work seeks to apply these constraints to test the feasibility of the cold early scenario

Niles, P. B.↗