Results for “Dynamic risk assessment” — Page 21

DOE OSTI2025

Oscillation Risks of Grid-Following and Grid-Forming Inverter-Based Resources in Series-Compensated Networks

Here, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of a grid-connected inverter-based resource (IBR) when connected radially to a series compensated line. Potential interactions between the series compensation and the IBR have been identified for both types: grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM). The study begins with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations to demonstrate stability issues. Subsequently, nonlinear analytical models are formulated in the dq frame, validated against the EMT simulation, and leveraged to assess eigenvalues and participation factors. Influencing factors of the dominant oscillation modes have been identified. The analysis results show that series compensation may make a mode associated with the synchronization unit unstable. Furthermore, customized feedback systems are built for the synchronizing loop. Series compensation can increase the sensitivity of the voltage phase angle towards the synchronizing angle, and introduce phase lag in the real power response towards the synchronizing angle. These factors may cause interactions with the phase-locked loop in GFL-IBR systems and with power-based synchronization in GFM-IBR systems, potentially leading to instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the exposure of three diving bird species to offshore wind areas on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf using satellite telemetry

Abstract Aim The United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) has considerable offshore wind energy potential. Capturing that resource is part of a broader effort to reduce CO 2 emissions. While few turbines have been constructed in U.S. waters, over a dozen currently planned offshore wind projects have the potential to displace marine birds, potentially leading to effective habitat loss. We focused on three diving birds identified in Europe to be vulnerable to displacement. Our research aimed to determine their potential exposure to areas designated or proposed for offshore wind development along the Atlantic OCS. Methods Satellite tracking technology was used to determine the spatial and temporal use and movement patterns of Surf Scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ), Red‐throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) and Northern Gannets ( Morus bassanus ), and calculate their exposure to each offshore wind area. We tagged 236 adults in 2012–2015 on the Atlantic OCS from New Jersey to North Carolina; an additional 147 birds tagged in previous tracking studies were integrated into our analyses. Tracking data were analysed in two‐week intervals using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to develop composite spatial utilization distributions. For each species, these distributions were then used to calculate the spatio‐temporal exposure to each offshore wind area. Results Surf Scoters and Red‐throated Loons were exposed to offshore wind areas almost exclusively during migration because these species were distributed among coastal and inshore waters during winter months. In contrast, Northern Gannets ranged over a much larger area, reaching farther offshore and south in winter, thus exhibited the greatest exposure to extant offshore wind areas. Conclusions Results of this study provide better understanding of how diving birds use current and potential future offshore wind areas on the Atlantic OCS, and can inform permitting, risk assessment and pre‐ and post‐construction impact assessments of offshore energy infrastructure.

Stenhouse, Iain J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finch: Toxicity Dose Response Curve Prediction of Chemical Compounds and Mixtures

A paradigm shift in chemical risk assessment is emphasizing mixture testing over single compound analysis, eliminating animal testing, and adopting advanced modeling approaches to understand mixture activity profiles. However, existing computational models largely focus on single chemicals, with few effective solutions for modeling complex mixtures that account for synergistic or antagonistic effects and multiple Modes of Action (MoA). Conventional methods like concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) are insufficient for this task as they are designed for simplistic interactions and struggle to account for the dynamic and multifaceted nature of chemical mixtures, such as overlapping MoA and non-linear interactions. Finch offers a novel approach utilizing deep learning (DL) embeddings and multi-task quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to improve chemical exposure prediction. By leveraging molecular descriptors, physiochemical properties, and large language model (LLM) embeddings from SMILES inputs, Finch preserves critical information in a latent space thereby enhancing predictive accuracy. The multi-task learning aspect of Finch is highly advantageous, as it simultaneously optimizes multiple loss functions, leveraging all available data across tasks to develop generalized representations that effectively capture complex ingredient interactions within mixtures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Strutzenberg, L. L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of carbon foam-based sorbents for the abatement of gaseous mercury and iodine

The U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is in the process of commissioning the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant to process a portion of the 54 million gallons of radioactive and chemical waste from cold war weapon production. Technologies for the capture of volatile species of concern are still being assessed, and new methods and materials are developed as operational and flowsheet mission risks are identified. One such area still being assessed is the abatement efficacy of the Carbon Adsorber units to retain gaseous mercury and 129 I released during processing. It is challenging to predict the mercury chemistry due to the variability of the feed, and different methods/materials are required for the capture of gaseous Hg 0 and Hg II compounds. In this study, the feasibility of using developmental carbon foam (CF) sorbents for the capture of iodine and mercury was assessed using static and dynamic flow testing and compared against a commercially available sorbent, BATII-37. Both CF and CF functionalized with bismuth particles (CF-Bi) chemisorbed iodine, and CF-Bi had similar mercury capture performance to BATII-37 in dynamic flow tests. While species loading concentrations were measurable, limitations in achieving a mass balance prevented a full evaluation of capture efficacy. Nonetheless, the results serve as an important first step in demonstrating the potential for simultaneous iodine and mercury capture.

Hanford site↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector

Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007–2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Modeling Approaches to Investigate Cell Signaling in Radiation Response

Ionizing radiation damages individual cells and tissues leading to harmful biological effects. Among many radiation-induced lesions, DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) are considered the key precursors of most early and late effects [1] leading to direct mutation or aberrant signal transduction processes. In response to damage, a flow of information is communicated to cells not directly hit by the radiation through signal transduction pathways [2]. Non-targeted effects (NTE), which includes bystander effects and genomic instability in the progeny of irradiated cells and tissues, may be particularly important for space radiation risk assessment [1], because astronauts are exposed to a low fluence of heavy ions and only a small fraction of cells are traversed by an ion. NTE may also have important consequences clinical radiotherapy [3]. In the recent years, new simulation tools and modeling approaches have become available to study the tissue response to radiation. The simulation of signal transduction pathways require many elements such as detailed track structure calculations, a tissue or cell culture model, knowledge of biochemical pathways and Brownian Dynamics (BD) propagators of the signaling molecules in their micro-environment. Recently, the Monte-Carlo simulation code of radiation track structure RITRACKS was used for micro and nano-dosimetry calculations [4]. RITRACKS will be used to calculate the fraction of cells traversed by an ion and delta-rays and the energy deposited in cells in a tissue model. RITRACKS also simulates the formation of chemical species by the radiolysis of water [5], notably the .OH radical. This molecule is implicated in DNA damage and in the activation of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF), a signaling molecule involved in NTE. BD algorithms for a particle near a membrane comprising receptors were also developed and will be used to simulate trajectories of signaling molecules in the micro-environment and characterize autocrine and paracrine cell communication and signal transduction.

Plante, Ianik↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of HAB Particulate Tracing in EMU Helmet in Support of Eva 80

After water was reported in the EMU helmet during ISS US EVA-80, mitigation strategies were created to attempt to arrest the motion of any droplets that enter the helmet for future Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). This included adding absorbent materials into the interior of the helmet. But before a mitigation strategy can be implemented, it must first be proven to be safe. Towards this aim, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was done tracing the paths of particulates potentially generated by the absorbent material. The objective was to characterize the risk these particulates pose for inspiration and eye irritation by tracking what percentage of particulates contact the suit-wearer’s face, eyes, or mouth. The model consisted of a human mannikin head and torso inside the EMU suit and helmet. The software used was ANSYS Fluent, with discrete phase modeling enabled to generate and track the particulates within the ventilation flow of the helmet.

Abigail Rose Baukus↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of HAB Particulate Tracing in EMU Helmet in Support of Eva 80

After water was reported in the EMU helmet during ISS US EVA-80, mitigation strategies were created to attempt to arrest the motion of any droplets that enter the helmet for future Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). This included adding absorbent materials into the interior of the helmet. But before a mitigation strategy can be implemented, it must first be proven to be safe. Towards this aim, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was done tracing the paths of particulates potentially generated by the absorbent material. The objective was to characterize the risk these particulates pose for inspiration and eye irritation by tracking what percentage of particulates contact the suit-wearer’s face, eyes, or mouth. The model consisted of a human mannikin head and torso inside the EMU suit and helmet. The software used was ANSYS Fluent, with discrete phase modeling enabled to generate and track the particulates within the ventilation flow of the helmet.

Abigail Baukus↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of HAB Particulate Tracing in EMU Helmet in Support of Eva 80

After water was reported in the EMU helmet during ISS US EVA-80, mitigation strategies were created to attempt to arrest the motion of any droplets that enter the helmet for future Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). This included adding absorbent materials into the interior of the helmet. But before a mitigation strategy can be implemented, it must first be proven to be safe. Towards this aim, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was done tracing the paths of particulates potentially generated by the absorbent material. The objective was to characterize the risk these particulates pose for inspiration and eye irritation by tracking what percentage of particulates contact the suit-wearer’s face, eyes, or mouth. The model consisted of a human mannikin head and torso inside the EMU suit and helmet. The software used was ANSYS Fluent, with discrete phase modeling enabled to generate and track the particulates within the ventilation flow of the helmet.

Abigail Baukus↗

NASA NTRS2024

Framework for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Nonstructural Elements Inside an Inflatable Lunar Habitat

The pursuit of knowledge and curiosity are once again driving humanity to seek a human presence on extraterrestrial bodies. While numerous challenges must be overcome on the moon to achieve this goal, the moonquake hazard has often been overlooked. Using NASA’s Moon to Mars Architecture requirements for surface habitation and accounting for the midterm/long-term mission duration, a framework for vulnerability assessment is developed for essential nonstructural elements (NSEs) inside an inflatable habitat subjected to moonquakes. The aim of this study is to develop an approach to assess the vulnerability of typical NSEs that support essential equipment, such as the environmental control and life support system, under a paucity of information related to the seismic hazard. We also emphasize that the launch dynamic environment and lunar seismic environment exhibit notable differences in their characteristics, which can lead to higher lateral acceleration levels than initially expected. This acceleration may be linked to high-occurrence seismic events. However, due to the lack of information regarding the frequency of these events, the risk of NSEs being subjected to unforeseen loads increases. It is imperative to equip future lunar habitats with seismic mitigation measures until additional seismometers are deployed near upcoming surface human outposts.

Oscar D Forero↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Advancements in the PATO Material Response Code

Introduction: Predicting the complicated multiphysics phenomena during atmospheric entry requires high-fidelity modeling tools to refine estimates of mission risks during entry. To this end, new capabilities are being added to the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO). PATO is an open-source software for Computational Material Response (CMR) of reactive porous materials submitted to high-temperature environments. The objective of this work is to highlight current efforts to add to and improve upon the modeling capabilities of PATO. These include efforts to loosely couple PATO with other discipline specialized codes including hypersonic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), to assess the interaction effects between pyrolysis gas blowing and the boundary layer, and Computational Solid Mechanics (CSM), to address modeling of mechanical erosion. Other refinements include surface phenomena modeling capabilities to address the effects of silicone-based coatings applied to the TPS during flight preparation, and a unified multiphase solver for a mixed porous-material and plain-fluid domain. Coupling CMR with CFD (CMR/CFD): A loose coupling between PATO and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) CFD code has been achieved by making use of a blowing boundary condition at the heatshield surface available in DPLR. Starting with heat flux estimates with no pyrolysis gas blowing at the surface, blowing gases are computed by the CMR and passed to the CFD such that aerothermal properties of the environment can be recomputed for a new CMR computation. This leads to an iterative process which is supplemented with an estimate of the radiative heat flux using the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) program. The entire iterative process is illustrated in Figure 1. This coupling strategy has been utilized in computing the MSL material response. The goal is to compare the coupled CMR/CFD results with material response results obtained using traditional blowing corrections. Coupling CMS with CMR: A mechanical erosion model is currently being implemented in PATO to account for the additional mass removal induced by high shear conditions. The modeling process at each timestep consists of updating the mechanical properties as a function of temperature and computing the stress tensor and displacement fields of the material. Then, a failure criteria model determines the regions in which the stress exceeds the ultimate strength values resulting in mesh movement to account for mass removal. This model allows the material response simulation to compute the recession due to both oxidation and shear-induced erosion. The model is demonstrated by computing material response of sphere-cone arc jet samples. Surface Modeling Capabilities: NuSil, a silicone-based coating, was sprayed onto the MSL and Mars 2020 heatshields to mitigate shedding of phenolic dust. To better understand the effects of the NuSil coating on the material response, a novel model has been implemented in PATO. In this model, the equilibrium of the charred NuSil surface is modeled as pure silica, and a constant offset, inspired by the classical spallation model, is added to the the char blowing rate and wall enthalpy to reproduce HyMETS experimental results. The model has also been used to estimate the 3D material response of the MSL heatshield. Unified Solver: In addition to the iterative loose coupling approach mentioned above, a multiphase unified solver is being developed to couple the environment (plain-fluid phase) and the porous-material phase. The solver is based on the volume averaged conservation of mass, momentum, and energy for the macroscale with closure models which include microscale effects through effective physicochemical properties. The unified solver has been used to compute flow through a porous plug and solve the Beavers and Joseph problem. Since the strong coupling between phases is inherent to this solver, modeling assumptions present in other coupling methods of material response are mitigated. This strategy also makes it feasible to capture the competition between surface and volume ablation in the same computational domain, which is usually not possible with other coupling approaches.

Material Response↗

NASA NTRS1995

Fractal mechanisms and heart rate dynamics. Long-range correlations and their breakdown with disease

Under healthy conditions, the normal cardiac (sinus) interbeat interval fluctuates in a complex manner. Quantitative analysis using techniques adapted from statistical physics reveals the presence of long-range power-law correlations extending over thousands of heartbeats. This scale-invariant (fractal) behavior suggests that the regulatory system generating these fluctuations is operating far from equilibrium. In contrast, it is found that for subjects at high risk of sudden death (e.g., congestive heart failure patients), these long-range correlations break down. Application of fractal scaling analysis and related techniques provides new approaches to assessing cardiac risk and forecasting sudden cardiac death, as well as motivating development of novel physiologic models of systems that appear to be heterodynamic rather than homeostatic.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS2012

Numerical Study of Ammonia Leak and Dispersion in the International Space Station

Release of ammonia into the International Space Station (ISS) cabin atmosphere can occur if the water/ammonia barrier breach of the active thermal control system (ATCS) interface heat exchanger (IFHX) happens. After IFHX breach liquid ammonia is introduced into the water-filled internal thermal control system (ITCS) and then to the cabin environment through a ruptured gas trap. Once the liquid water/ammonia mixture exits ITCS, it instantly vaporizes and mixes with the U.S. Laboratory cabin air that results in rapid deterioration of the cabin conditions. The goal of the study is to assess ammonia propagation in the Station after IFHX breach to plan the operation procedure. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for accurate prediction of airflow and ammonia transport within each of the modules in the ISS cabin was developed. CFD data on ammonia content in the cabin aisle way of the ISS and, in particular, in the Russian On- Orbit Segment during the period of 15 minutes after gas trap rupture are presented for four scenarios of rupture response. Localized effects of ammonia dispersion and risk mitigation are discussed.

Son, Chang H.↗