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At least 379 records · Page 21

Using groundwater noble gas measurements to confirm paleorecharge hypotheses at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

Pahute Mesa (Nevada, USA) was the site of 85 underground nuclear tests between 1965 and 1992 whose residual radio-chemical inventory poses a contaminant threat to local groundwater resources. To assess the fate and transport of these radionuclides in groundwater, several geochemical studies, including this one, have been conducted to understand long-term groundwater flow patterns at, and downgradient of, Pahute Mesa. Groundwater samples from the Pahute Mesa area at the Nevada National Security Site were analyzed for noble gases ( 3 He/ 4 He isotopic ratio and He, Ne, Kr, Ar and Xe concentrations) to infer groundwater recharge temperatures and provide additional evidence in support of groundwater flow patterns and the presence of late-pluvial Pleistocene groundwater. These data confirm recent findings (based on groundwater geochemistry and isotope compositions) that most recharge in the area occurred under temperature conditions much cooler than are found today, except near major drainages where ephemeral run of continues to recharge shallow groundwater. These noble gas data indicate that noble gas recharge temperatures and terrigenic He components have been reset where groundwater has flowed upward over barriers formed by caldera margins, or near the regional discharge area (Oasis Valley) where shallow groundwater has interacted with shallow soil gas. This evidence from groundwater noble gas measurements, in combination with other isotopic and geochemical studies, supports the current understanding of the unusual hydrogeology and recharge history of Pahute Mesa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Yesterday’s extremes, today’s new normal: flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Unplanned urban growth has left many cities increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, particularly in regions with inadequate drainage infrastructures and development encroaching on natural floodplains. Here, in this perspective paper, we examine the September 2024 floods that struck Central Nepal, triggered by a persistent low-pressure system and enhanced by converging moisture flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal which led to widespread catastrophic damage. In the Kathmandu Valley, floodwaters expanded to more than 2.5 times the bankfull water extent, causing significant damage to housing, transportation network, and critical infrastructure, displacing thousands of residents, and severely disrupting urban services. This event highlights the urgent need for improved flood management strategies that integrate both structural and non-structural measures into the infrastructure development. While early warning systems provided critical lead time, challenges remain in reducing forecasting uncertainties and improving communication across government agencies and with local communities. A forward-looking approach is essential, including probabilistic flood forecasting systems, sustainable floodplain management, risk-sensitive land use planning, climate- and disaster- resilient infrastructure development, and the integration of nature-based solutions like urban green and blue spaces to mitigate flood impacts. By involving local communities in planning and preparedness efforts, particularly through citizen science initiatives, and engagement with underserved and disadvantaged communities, Nepal can better adapt to the growing risks posed by extreme rainfall and urban flooding and enhance long-term disaster resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas like Kathmandu Valley.

Kathmandu Valley↗

Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Drying of Porous Media Considering Contact Angle Hysteresis

Drying of porous media is governed by a combination of evaporation and movement of the liquid phase within the porous structure. Contact angle hysteresis induced by surface roughness is shown to influence multi-phase flows, such as contact line motion of droplet, phase distribution during drainage and coffee ring formed after droplet drying in constant contact radius mode. However, the influence of contact angle hysteresis on liquid drying in porous media is still an unanswered question. Lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) is an advanced numerical approach increasingly used to study phase change problems including drying. In this paper, based on a geometric formulation scheme to prescribe contact angle, we implement a contact angle hysteresis model within the framework of a two-phase pseudopotential LBM. The capability and accuracy of prescribing and automatically measuring contact angles over a large range are tested and validated by simulating droplets sitting on flat and curved surfaces. Afterward, the proposed contact angle hysteresis model is validated by modeling droplet drying on flat and curved surfaces. Then, drying of two connected capillary tubes is studied, considering the influence of different contact angle hysteresis ranges on drying dynamics. Finally, the model is applied to study drying of a dual-porosity porous medium, where phase distribution and drying rate are compared with and without contact angle hysteresis. The proposed model is shown to be capable of dealing with different contact angle hysteresis ranges accurately and of capturing the physical mechanisms during drying in different porous media including flat and curved geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Two-Phase Flow Mechanisms Controlling CO2 Intrusion into Shaly Caprock

Abstract Geologic carbon storage in deep saline aquifers has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate climate change. CO 2 is buoyant at the storage conditions and tends to float over the resident brine jeopardizing long-term containment goals. Therefore, the caprock sealing capacity is of great importance and requires detailed assessment. We perform supercritical CO 2 injection experiments on shaly caprock samples (intact caprock and fault zone) under representative subsurface conditions. We numerically simulate the experiments, satisfactorily reproducing the observed evolution trends. Simulation results highlight the dynamics of CO 2 flow through the specimens with implications to CO 2 leakage risk assessment in field practices. The large injection-induced overpressure drives CO 2 in free phase into the caprock specimens. However, the relative permeability increase following the drainage path is insufficient to provoke an effective advancement of the free-phase CO 2 . As a result, the bulk CO 2 front becomes almost immobile. This implies that the caprock sealing capacity is unlikely to be compromised by a rapid capillary breakthrough and the injected CO 2 does not penetrate deep into the caprock. In the long term, the intrinsically slow molecular diffusion appears to dominate the migration of CO 2 dissolved into brine. Nonetheless, the inherently tortuous nature of shaly caprock further holds back the diffusive flow, favoring safe underground storage of CO 2 over geological time scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Efficacy of underground aggregate infiltration beds under a permeable pavement system

Urban areas often face significant flooding challenges due to impermeable surfaces that exacerbate stormwater runoff, making effective stormwater management essential. This study demonstrated that combining pervious concrete pavement systems with underground aggregate storage beds and rain gardens can significantly enhance water infiltration and drainage efficiency, providing valuable insights for designing low-impact development strategies in flood-prone regions.

Haselbach, Liv [Lamar Univ., Beaumont, TX (United ↗

Numerical investigation of multiphase flow through self-affine rough fractures

Multiphase flow through fractures has great significance in subsurface energy recovery and gas storage applications. Different fracture and flow properties affect flow through a fracture which is difficult to control in laboratory experiments. Here, we perform lattice Boltzmann simulations in an ensemble of synthetically generated fractures. Drainage simulations are performed at different capillary numbers, wettability, and viscosity ratios. We track the invading front and quantify breakthrough saturations and show that roughness and wettability have a strong effect on fluid invasion through a complex fracture. Invading a more viscous fluid results in more stable displacement regardless of the capillary number while at very low capillary numbers, fluid migration is dependent on the inherent structure of the fracture. We develop a fluid displacement phase diagram in a single rough fracture and compare our results from that in the literature. Finally, we extend the phase diagrams across multiple fractures and demonstrate the importance of natural fracture features of roughness and wettability in identifying stable versus unstable displacement regimes during multiphase flow through rough fractures. Our work presents an end-to-end numerical pathway for testing on experimental data and expanding numerical data sets for testing combinations of different physical phenomenon and make valuable predictions on fluid flow through rough fractures.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Colloidal metal transport in soils developing on historic coal mine spoil

Chemical weathering of pyrite via oxidative dissolution is well-known for generating Fe(III)-bearing colloids at acid mine drainage (AMD) sites; however, the potential for physical weathering of pyrite-bearing materials and subsequent release and transport of colloidal pyrite and associated trace metals has not been studied. Here, we monitored the colloidal metal transport in soil developing on abandoned coal mine spoil with a history of AMD generation to systematically study the contribution of colloids to base and trace metal transport and determine the elemental and mineralogical composition of colloids. Additionally, we collected soil pore water using lysimeters with a pore size of approximately 1.3 μm and centrifugation was used to separate the colloids from aqueous fractions. Metal concentrations of Na, Ca, Mg, K, Si, Al, Mn, Fe, Cu, and Zn were analyzed. Our results show only 14% of the total Al and Cu were present in colloidal fractions whereas 23%, 43%, and 54% of Fe, Mn, and Zn were transported in the colloidal phase, respectively. In contrast, all base metals were primarily present in the aqueous concentration with a small fraction (<10%) present in the colloidal phase. The colloidal fractions of the base metals were inferred to be associated with the concentration of clay colloids. The release of colloids exhibited possible sensitivity toward weather conditions such as alternating high temperatures and rainfall during summer (May–July) compared to fall (August–November). The morphology, elemental, and mineral composition of colloids were determined by a scanning electron microscopy equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Colloids were dominated by phyllosilicates (biotite, muscovite, and kaolinite) with minor quartz and feldspars. Other minerals phases identified in colloidal fractions were hematite, goethite, arsenopyrite, and chalcopyrite. Colloids consisting of Fe, S, and O with structures resembling framboidal pyrite were identified, which is consistent with the non-silicates minerals identified by XRD. Our study suggests that the physical weathering of pyrite in the mine spoil can generate colloidal pyrite, which is mobilized and transported by soil pore water. Our results also indicate that these pyritic colloids are associated with toxic trace metals including Cu, Mn, and Zn. Colloid mobilization is also impacted by changes in temperature and precipitation, where clay mobilization afer rain events is favored. Further, sudden spikes in aqueous and/or colloidal concentrations may be the result of local heterogeneity within soils developing on mine spoil, indicating that further field-based work is necessary to better characterize pore-scale processes that control aqueous and colloid transport at similar sites to have a better understanding of potential contaminant transport from mine spoil systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Permeate fluxes from desalination of brines and produced waters: A reactive transport modeling study

The increasing interest in the use of membrane systems to desalinate inland brackish water, agricultural drainage, and industrially produced wastewater demands improved means of predicting desalination system performance under variable feedwater compositions. The interaction among water flow, solute transport, and chemical composition in these systems impacts permeate flux evolution. Here, an established multicomponent reactive transport simulator that accounts for these coupled processes is applied to compute osmotic pressure and permeate fluxes in reverse osmosis (RO) systems. The model is first validated by predicting permeate fluxes for a set of benchtop crossflow experiments subject to a range of feed flow rates and compositions, under fouling and non-fouling conditions. Results compare favorably with measured data that show that solutions with similar total dissolved solids concentrations but different compositions result in different permeate fluxes. The model is then applied to predict permeate fluxes from the desalination of produced waters using a commercial spiral wound RO module. For NaCl-dominant brines, at total dissolved salt concentrations (TDS) below about 70 g/L, permeate fluxes are inversely proportional to water mole fraction as the latter is a reasonable approximation of water activity (i.e. ideal mixing). In the case of Ca–Cl-, Na–CO3- and Na–SO4-dominant brines below about 70 g/L TDS, this relationship does not hold as well and tends to overpredict osmotic pressure and thus underpredict permeate fluxes. However, the opposite becomes true at higher TDS values for typical produced waters. The scaling potential of these waters is also computed by allowing the precipitation of minerals above their saturation limit on the RO membrane. This work demonstrates how reactive transport models developed for the analysis of waters from geological systems can be extended to improve process design, optimization, and control in desalination systems from produced waters and beyond.

Molins, Sergi↗

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fate of arsenic during up to 4.5 years of aging of Fe III -As V coprecipitates at acidic pH: Effect of reaction media (Nitrate vs. Sulfate), Fe/As molar ratio, and pH

Iron-arsenate (Fe III -As V ) coprecipitate generated in acid mine drainage and hydrometallurgical practices is one of the potential sources of As contamination in the environment. However, the As behavior as well as the transformation process of the Fe III -As V coprecipitate is still not fully understood under acidic conditions. This work systematically studied the effect of reaction media (sulfate vs. nitrate), Fe/As molar ratios, and acidic pH values on the transformation rates, routes, and products of the Fe III -As V coprecipitates at different temperatures during up to 4.5 years of aging. X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron spectroscopy (TEM), Raman spectroscopy, and extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) results showed that the Fe III -As V coprecipitates with Fe/As = 2 transformed to scorodite at pH 4 in both sulfate and nitrate media with poorly crystalline ferric arsenate as precursor. In comparison, for the Fe/As = 4 samples, parascorodite and hematite were formed in sulfate and nitrate media, respectively. We note arsenic was released into the liquid phase during the aging process for the samples with Fe/As = 2 and 4. The aqueous As concentrations ([As] aq ) in sulfate media were larger than those in nitrate media for both the Fe/As = 2 and 4 samples. In addition, the transformation products were goethite and Na-jarosite at Fe/As = 8 and 16, pH 2.5 with the decrease of [As] aq . The results also indicated that 6-line ferrihydrite was a common intermediate for many Fe-As transformation processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nondestructive neutron imaging diagnosis of acidic gas reduction catalyst after 400-Hour operation in natural gas furnace

Residential natural gas furnaces are the primary space-heating devices in US homes, leading to substantial environmental impact caused by the acidic components in the furnace combustion gases. Here, to experimentally demonstrate acidic gas reduction in a furnace, a monolithic catalyst was fabricated and was called the AGR. A commercially-available condensing furnace was retrofitted with the AGR, and a 400-hour reliability and durability test was conducted. The results showed that the AGR significantly reduced acidic gases in the flue gas and produced condensate with neutral pH. Challenges were also revealed: inappropriate condensate drainage caused incomplete combustion and amorphous carbon deposits. To nondestructively survey the internal state of the AGR, neutron computed tomography (NCT) was employed to produce spatially resolved 2D and 3D representations of the 2-L, aged AGR component. The NCT results confirm the integrity of the AGR component, which consists of two blocks, without deformation or damage to AGR channels. The distribution of the particle accumulation in the middle of the top block was visibly heavier than the entrance and exit of the top block. The representative cross-section views revealed significant aggregation in the central region but not at the rim. The spatially resolved details provide in-depth diagnosis, evaluation, and understanding of the AGR. The insights can enable new AGR designs that realize a uniform and self-cleaning flow pattern, alleviate significant particle aggregation, and thus enhance AGR-enabled furnace performance. The neutron imaging method demonstrates the good potential that can diagnose faults and improve the design, optimization, and production processes of novel catalysts and other components or systems with heavy metal shell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An innovative approach for atrazine electrochemical oxidation modelling: Process parameter effect, intermediate formation and kinetic constant assessment

Water reuse for irrigation activities is becoming a crucial worldwide challenge due to the depletion of water sources. Anyway, agricultural drainage can potentially contain dangerous contaminants such as metals, pesticides, and herbicides, including atrazine. To address the need for agriculture wastewater purification, we investigated atrazine removal from simulated wastewater by electro-oxidation using platinum-coated titanium electrodes on a lab-scale experimental apparatus. The effects of electrolyte composition and concentration, i.e. ionic strength and applied current density on atrazine removal, were investigated. The results demonstrated that the electrochemical oxidation of the herbicide occurred through two routes, depending on the presence or absence of oxidizing chlorine species. The generation of intermediates during the treatment was monitored and quantified by evaluating the effect of an inert electrolyte (NaClO 4 ) versus an oxidizable chlorine species (NaCl). In both experimental conditions, five intermediates were identified, including desethyl-atrazine (DEA), hydroxyatrazine (ATZ-OH), desisopropyl-atrazine (DIA) and desethyl-desisopropyl-atrazine (DEDIA). A degradation mechanism and a model for describing hydroxyl radicals and active chlorine species contributions at ATZ oxidation were also proposed. Intermediate evolution profiles suggest that ATZ degradation can be considered as a series–parallel reaction system. Finally, the energy requirement assessment for ATZ removal was carried out. The highest ATZ removal (≅98%) was achieved with NaCl = 0.08 M, J = 60 A/m −2 , and E C = 5.83 kWh m −3 . Results highlight that atrazine removal was improved when an active chlorine species (NaCl) was present in the water solution. Moreover, the addition of chlorine species during electro-oxidation is an energy-saving strategy. Collectively, electro-oxidation technique can be efficiently applied to treat polluted water in order to meet the needs of recycling water quality and reduce resource consumption.

Electro-chemical oxidation↗

Bioelectrochemical reactor to manage anthropogenic sulfate pollution for freshwater ecosystems: Mathematical modeling and experimental validation

Anthropogenic sulfate loading into otherwise low-sulfate freshwater systems can cause significant ecological consequences as a biogeochemical stressor. To address this challenge, in situ bioremediation technologies have been developed to leverage naturally occurring microorganisms that transform sulfate into sulfide rather than implementing resource-intensive physio-chemical processes. However, bioremediation technologies often require the supply of electron donors to facilitate biological sulfate reduction. Bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can be an alternative approach for supplying molecular hydrogen as an electron donor for sulfate-reducing bacteria through water electrolysis. Although the fundamental mechanisms behind BESs have been studied, limited research has evaluated the design and operational parameters of treatment systems when developing BESs on a scale relevant to environmental systems. Further, this study aimed to develop an application-based mathematical model to evaluate the performance of BESs across a range of reactor configurations and operational modes. The model was based on sulfate transformation by hydrogenotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria coupled with the recovery of solid iron sulfide species formed by the oxidative dissolution of dissolved ferrous iron from a stainless steel anode. Sulfate removal closely corresponded to the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production and hydraulic residence time but was less sensitive to specific microbial rate constants. The mathematical model results were compared to experimental data from a pilot-scale BES tested with nonacidic mine drainage as a case study. The close agreement between the mathematical model and the pilot-scale BES experiment highlights the efficacy of using a mathematical model as a tool to develop a conceptual design of a scaled-up treatment system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anisotropic elastoplastic response of double-porosity media

Here we present a continuum framework to simulate fluid flow through anisotropic elastoplastic media with double porosity. Two effective stress measures σ' and δ" emerge from the thermodynamic formulation, which are energy-conjugate to the elastic and plastic components of strain, respectively. Both effective stress measures can be expressed as a combination of the total Cauchy stress σ and the average pore pressure $\bar{p}$ in the two pore scales. In the effective stress for elasticity, $\bar{p}$ is scaled with a rank-2 Biot tensor, whereas the effective stress for plasticity follows the Terzaghi form in which $\bar{p}$ is scaled by the Kronecker delta. The Biot tensor and storage coefficients are derived as functions of elasticity parameters and porosities. A mixed finite element formulation is introduced to discretize the domain and solve initial boundary-value problems. A stabilization scheme is employed on equal-order interpolation for both displacement and pressure fields throughout the entire range of drainage responses. Numerical simulations reproduce the hydromechanical response of Opalinus shale in one-dimensional consolidation tests throughout the range of primary and secondary consolidation under different external loads. Numerical simulations of the consolidation of a rectangular domain subjected to a strip load demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed stabilization scheme, as well as illustrate the impacts of stress history, mass transfer, and different pore systems on the hydromechanical response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Proppant embedment in coal and shale: Impacts of stress hardening and sorption

During methane production in CBM reservoirs, the influence of proppant embedment and permeability damage cannot be neglected – especially where the wall-rock is soft. Effective stresses are elevated during methane recovery, increasing both normal loading stress and confinement and simultaneously overprinting sorption-induced volumetric strains. Experiments and analytic modeling are conducted to define key mechanisms controlling these competitive effects. We independently measure overall sample compaction (external LVDT) and local strain (strain gauge) in the matrix to deconvolve proppant embedment in a propped fracture for different conditions of confining stress. The results show symptomatic behaviors of elastic (shale) and elastoplastic (coal) responses of embedment. Different from shale, the evolution of embedment is convex upwards with increased stress where indented depth increases more rapidly as loading stress increases under constant confinement. In addition, a stress-hardening effect is found to play a pivotal role in determining the characteristics of indentation, which are examined in terms of evolution profiles, deformation regimes, embedment slopes, curvatures, yield points and irreversible indentations. Based on the experimental observations a semianalytical model predicts indentation and the evolution of propped permeability under recreated in-situ stress conditions. A simplified case study is conducted to further illustrate the evolution of aperture and permeability of a propped fracture in CBM reservoirs. The modeling results suggest that proppant embedment is significantly overestimated if the variable stress-hardening (VSH) effect is neglected, especially when effective stress is large. Moreover, a decrease in indentation depth possibly occurs during late stage methane production, resulting in a reversal/recovery in fracture closure. This is because desorption-induced shrinkage becomes the predominant effect, causing an increase in aperture and a reduction in the indented volume of proppant. The resulting recovery in permeability implies that the propped coal fracture has the potential to optimally facilitate methane production as a pathway, even at high closure stresses generated by methane drainage.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Evaluation of coal-associated sediments, wastes, and AMD sludge in the Southern Appalachian Basin as feedstock materials for REE and Li recovery

Critical minerals (CM) such as rare earth elements (REE+) and Lithium (Li) are essential to technological innovation, energy transitions, global economic and defense security, necessitating the search for unconventional resources and efficient recovery methods to avert supply chain disruptions. Here, this study evaluates coal-associated sediments (underclay and roof rock) and wastes from the Pennsylvanian Pottsville Formation of the Southern Appalachian Basin (SAB) as potential feedstocks for CM recovery. A total of 34 samples (15 underclays, 12 roof rocks, 5 Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) sludges, and 2 coal mining wastes) were characterized using XRD, XRF, ICP-MS, and μ-XRF analytical methods. The REE+ and Li concentrations of these materials ranged from 46.8 to 334.4 ppm and from 11.1 to 519 ppm, respectively, with one underclay sample (Hendrix 3456) yielding the highest values for both. Bulk mineralogy for all samples was dominated by aluminosilicate clay phases, particularly illite and kaolinite. All samples exhibited REY def, rel% values >26% and C outl indices that ranged from 0.69 to 0.94, classifying their REE ore potential as Category II (Promising) as defined by Seredin and Dai (2012). Extractability tests (EPA method 3051 A) yielded low REE+ and Li recoveries, with maximum values of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively, suggesting associations with resistant minerals like clay and phosphates. Elemental mapping indicates that REE+ is associated with phosphate, whereas statistical analysis suggests that REE+ are associated with aluminosilicates, suggesting heterogeneous associations or minimal phosphate contribution. Li also correlated positively with Al 2 O 3 , indicating an aluminosilicate host. This study highlights the potential of coal-associated sediments in the SAB.

Clay minerals↗

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗