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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Substrate stiffness modulates endothelial cell function via the YAP-Dll4-Notch1 pathway

Highlights: • Soft stiffness increases Dll4 expression in endothelial cells via YAP suppression. • Soft substrate-induced Dll4-Notch1 signaling is facilitated by VEGF stimulation. • Elevated Dll4-Notch1 signaling contributes to the regulation of VEGFRs expression. • Substrate stiffness modulates gene expression linked to endothelial cell function. Endothelial cells adapt their functions as a consequence of sensing extracellular substrate stiffness; these alterations allow them to maintain their vascular structure and function. Substrate stiffness-mediated yes-associated protein 1 (YAP) activation plays an important role in mechano-transduction and pro-angiogenic phenotype of endothelial cells, and Delta-like ligand 4 (Dll4)-Notch1 signaling is closely related to angiogenesis; however, the impact of substrate stiffness-mediated interrelation of these pathways on endothelial cell functions remains elusive. We confirmed that endothelial cells on softer substrates not only elongate cellular aspects but also attenuate YAP activation compared to cells on stiffer substrates. Endothelial cells on softer substrates also upregulate the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 (VEGFR1) and VEGFR2 mRNA expression that is enhanced by VEGF stimulation. We determined that endothelial cells on softer substrates increased Dll4 expression, but not Notch1 expression, via YAP signaling. Moreover, endothelial cells on soft substrates induced not only VEGFRs upregulation but also suppression of pro-inflammatory interleukin-6 and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 mRNA expression and the facilitation of anti-coagulant thrombomodulin and pro-coagulant tissue factor mRNA expression. Our results suggest that endothelial cells activate the YAP-Dll4-Notch signaling pathway in response to substrate stiffness and dictate cellular function.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving growth of Cupriavidus necator H16 on formate using adaptive laboratory evolution-informed engineering

Conversion of CO 2 to value-added products presents an opportunity to reduce GHG emissions while generating revenue. Formate, which can be generated by the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 , has been proposed as a promising intermediate compound for microbial upgrading. Here we present progress towards improving the soil bacterium Cupriavidus necator H16, which is capable of growing on formate as its sole source of carbon and energy using the Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle, as a host for formate utilization. Using adaptive laboratory evolution, we generated several isolates that exhibited faster growth rates on formate. The genomes of these isolates were sequenced, and resulting mutations were systematically reintroduced by metabolic engineering, to identify those that improved growth. Further, the metabolic impact of several mutations was investigated further using RNA-seq transcriptomics. We found that deletion of a transcriptional regulator implicated in quorum sensing, PhcA, reduced expression of several operons and led to improved growth on formate. Growth was also improved by deleting large genomic regions present on the extrachromosomal megaplasmid pHG1, particularly two hydrogenase operons and the megaplasmid CBB operon, one of two copies present in the genome. Based on these findings, we generated a rationally engineered ..delta..phcA and megaplasmid-deficient strain that exhibited a 24% faster maximum growth rate on formate. Moreover, this strain achieved a 7% growth rate improvement on succinate and a 19% increase on fructose, demonstrating the broad utility of microbial genome reduction. This strain has the potential to serve as an improved microbial chassis for biological conversion of formate to value-added products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

RB-TnSeq identifies genetic targets for improved tolerance of Pseudomonas putida towards compounds relevant to lignin conversion

We report lignin-derived mixtures intended for bioconversion commonly contain high concentrations of aromatic acids, aliphatic acids, and salts. The inherent toxicity of these chemicals places a significant bottleneck upon the effective use of microbial systems for the valorization of these mixtures. Pseudomonas putida KT2440 can tolerate stressful quantities of several lignin-related compounds, making this bacterium a promising host for converting these chemicals to valuable bioproducts. Nonetheless, further increasing P. putida tolerance to chemicals in lignin-rich substrates has the potential to improve bioprocess performance. Accordingly, we employed random barcoded transposon insertion sequencing (RB-TnSeq) to reveal genetic determinants in P. putida KT2440 that influence stress outcomes during exposure to representative constituents found in lignin-rich process streams. The fitness information obtained from the RB-TnSeq experiments informed engineering of strains via deletion or constitutive expression of several genes. Namely, ΔgacAS, ΔfleQ, ΔlapAB, ΔttgR::P tac :ttgABC, Ptac:PP_1150:PP_1152, ..delta..relA, and ΔPP_1430 mutants showed growth improvement in the presence of single compounds, and some also exhibited greater tolerance when grown using a complex chemical mixture representative of a lignin-rich chemical stream. Overall, this work demonstrates the successful implementation of a genome-scale screening tool for the identification of genes influencing stress tolerance against notable compounds within lignin-enriched chemical streams, and the genetic targets identified herein offer promising engineering targets for improving feedstock tolerance in lignin valorization strains of P. putida KT2440.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lower hybrid current drive in a tokamak for correlated passes through resonance

Standard quasilinear descriptions are based on the constant magnetic field form of the quasilinear operator so improperly treat the trapped electron modifications associated with tokamak geometry. Moreover, successive poloidal transits of the Landau resonance during lower hybrid current drive in a tokamak are well correlated, and these geometrical details must be properly retained to account for the presence of trapped electrons that do not contribute to the driven current. The recently derived quasilinear operator in tokamak geometry accounts for these features and finds that the quasilinear diffusivity is proportional to a delta function with a transit or bounce averaged argument (rather than a local Landau resonance condition). The new quasilinear operator is combined with the Cordey ( Nucl. Fusion , vol. 16, 1976, pp. 499–507) eigenfunctions to properly derive a rather simple and compact analytic expression for the trapped electron modifications to the driven lower hybrid current and the efficiency of the current drive.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical description of coalescing magnetic islands via magnetic reconnection

The physical picture of interacting magnetic islands provides a useful paradigm for certain plasma dynamics in a variety of physical environments, such as the solar corona, the heliosheath and the Earth's magnetosphere. In this work, we derive an island kinetic equation to describe the evolution of the island distribution function (in area and in flux of islands) subject to a collisional integral designed to account for the role of magnetic reconnection during island mergers. This equation is used to study the inverse transfer of magnetic energy through the coalescence of magnetic islands in two dimensions. We solve our island kinetic equation numerically for three different types of initial distribution: Dirac delta, Gaussian and power-law distributions. The time evolution of several key quantities is found to agree well with our analytical predictions: magnetic energy decays as $\tilde {t}^{-1}$ , the number of islands decreases as $\tilde {t}^{-1}$ and the averaged area of islands grows as $\tilde {t}$ , where $\tilde {t}$ is the time normalised to the characteristic reconnection time scale of islands. General properties of the distribution function and the magnetic energy spectrum are also studied. Finally, we discuss the underlying connection of our island-merger models to the (self-similar) decay of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of compact tokamak fusion reactor use cases to inform future transport studies

The OMFIT STEP (Meneghini et al. , Nucl. Fusion , vol. 10, 2020, p. 1088) workflow has been used to develop inductive and steady-state H-mode core plasma scenario use cases for a $B_0 = 8 \, {\rm T}$ , $R_0 = 4 \, {\rm m}$ machine to help guide and inform future higher-fidelity studies of core transport and confinement in compact tokamak reactors. Both use cases are designed to produce 200 MW or more of net electric power in an up-down symmetric plasma with minor radius $a = 1.4 \, {\rm m}$ , elongation $\kappa = 2.0$ , triangularity $\delta = 0.5$ and effective charge $Z_{{\rm eff}} \simeq 2$ . Additional considerations based on the need for compatibility of the core with reactor-relevant power exhaust solutions and external actuators were used to guide and constrain the use case development. An extensive characterization of core transport in both scenarios is presented, the most important feature of which is the extreme sensitivity of the results to the quantitative stiffness level of the transport model used as well as the predicted critical gradients. This sensitivity is shown to arise from different levels of transport stiffness exhibited by the models, combined with the gyroBohm-normalized fluxes of the predictions being an order of magnitude larger than other H-mode plasmas. Additionally, it is shown that although heating in both plasmas is predominantly to the electrons and collisionality is low, the plasmas remain sufficiently well coupled for the ions to carry a significant fraction of the thermal transport. As neoclassical transport is negligible in these conditions, this situation inherently requires long-wavelength ion gyroradius-scale turbulence to be the dominant transport mechanism in both plasmas. These results are combined with other basic considerations to propose a simple heuristic model of transport in reactor-relevant plasmas, along with simple metrics to quantify coupling and core transport properties across burning and non-burning plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Space–time structure of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

The two-time energy spectrum of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is found by applying a wave-turbulence closure to the cumulant hierarchy constructed from the dynamical equations. Solutions are facilitated via asymptotic expansions in terms of the small parameter $\varepsilon$ , describing the ratio of time scales corresponding to Alfvénic propagation and nonlinear interactions between counter-propagating Alfvén waves. The strength of nonlinearity at a given spatial scale is further quantified by an integration over all possible delta-correlated modes compliant in a given set of three-wave interactions that are associated with energy flux through the said scale. The wave-turbulence closure for the two-time spectrum uncovers a secularity occurring on a time scale of order $\varepsilon ^{-2}$ , and the asymptotic expansion for the spectrum is reordered in a manner comparable to the one-time case. It is shown that for the regime of stationary turbulence, the two-time energy spectrum exponentially decays on a lagged time scale $(\varepsilon ^2 \gamma _k^s)^{-1}$ in proportion to the strength of the associated three-wave interactions, characterized by nonlinear decorrelation frequency $\gamma _k^s$ . The scaling of the form $k_{\perp } v_0 \chi _0$ exhibited by this frequency is reminiscent of random sweeping by the outer scale with characteristic fluctuation velocity $v_0$ that is modified due to competition with Alfvénic propagation (characterized by $\chi _0$ ) at the said scale. A brief calculation of frequency broadening of the power spectrum due to nonlinear interactions is also presented.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Size-Dependent Janus-Ligand Shell Formation on PbS Quantum Dots

We studied the size-dependent Janus ligand shell formation on PbS QDs employing an X-type ligand exchange reaction between native oleate ligands and two substituted cinnamic acid ligands, trifluoromethyl- and dimethyl amino-cinnamic acid, representing electron donating and electron withdrawing ligands. The exchange reactions become significantly more favorable for both electron donating and withdrawing ligands (..delta..G becomes more negative) in the smaller QDs compared to the larger QDs likely because the ligand density is smaller on the larger QDs reducing the strength of the ligand-ligand interactions. We found that Janus-ligand shells form more readily on smaller QDs than on bigger QDs with electron donating ligands. We also observed a dependence on the QD concentration that should be considered when forming Janus-ligand shells. Two-dimensional solution nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (2D-NMR) shows evidence of pronounced phase segregation between oleate and electron donating ligands on the smaller QDs consistent with the enhanced ligand-ligand interactions. This study broadens our understanding of how to construct Janus and patchy ligand shell morphologies on small QDs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating 225 Ac and 177 Lu Radioimmunoconjugates against Antibody–Drug Conjugates for Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Interest in the use of 225 Ac for targeted alpha therapies has increased dramatically over the past few years, resulting in a multitude of new isotope production and translational research efforts. However, 225 Ac radioimmunoconjugate (RIC) research is still in its infancy, with most prior experience in hematologic malignancies and only one reported preclinical solid tumor study using 225 Ac RICs. In an effort to compare 225 Ac RICs to other current antibody conjugates, a variety of RICs are tested against intractable small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Here we directly compare, in vitro and in vivo , two promising candidates of each α or β - category, 225 Ac and 177 Lu, versus pyrrolobenzodiazepine (PBD) nonradioactive benchmarks. The monoclonal antibody constructs are targeted to either delta like 3 protein (DLL3), a recently discovered SCLC target, or CD46 as a positive control. An immunocompromised maximum tolerated dose assay is performed on NOD SCID mice, along with tumor efficacy proof-of-concept studies in vivo . We overview the conjugation techniques required to create serum-stable RICs and characterize and compare in vitro cell killing with RICs conjugated to nonspecific antibodies (huIgG1) with either native or site-specific thiol loci against tumor antigen DLL3-expressing and nonexpressing cell lines. Using patient-derived xenografts of SCLC onto NOD SCID mice, solid tumor growth was controlled throughout 3 weeks before growth appeared, in comparison to PBD conjugate controls. NOD SCID mice showed lengthened survival using 225 Ac compared to 177 Lu RICs, and PBD dimers showed full tumor suppression with nine out of ten mice. The exploration of RICs on a variety of antibody-antigen systems is necessary to direct efforts in cancer research toward promising candidates. However, the anti-DLL3-RIC system with 225 Ac and 177 Lu appears to be not as effective as the anti-DLL3-PBD counterpart in SCLC therapy with matched antibodies and portrays the challenges in both SCLC therapy as well as the specialized utility of RICs in cancer treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plasmon-Assisted Direct Interfacial Charge Transfer Enables Molecular Photodissociation on Metal Surfaces

Plasmonic photocatalysis is promising for driving reactions out of equilibrium, leading to enhanced rates and selectivity, but the energy and charge transfer mechanism at the interface remains to be explored. Here, we revisit visible-light plasmon-assisted photodissociation of dimethyl disulfide molecules (S–S bond cleavage) over single-crystalline silver and copper surfaces, using density functional theory calculations and the delta self-consistent field method. We investigate different excitation mechanisms and show that the direct intramolecular excitations, as suggested earlier to explain the experimental findings, cannot address the observed catalytic bond activation. Instead, the calculated excitations mediated by the metal Fermi level agree well with the threshold energy and maximum-yield energy in experiments and suggest that the reaction follows a direct interfacial charge transfer mechanism. Furthermore, we show that the excitation energy and the charge transfer can be modulated by introducing excess charges in the systems. Here, this study thus provides a fundamental understanding of interfacial charge transfer for driving plasmonic photocatalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV-2 M pro Protease Variants of Concern Display Altered Viral Substrate and Cell Host Target Galectin-8 Processing but Retain Sensitivity toward Antivirals

The main protease of SARS-CoV-2 (M pro ) is the most promising drug target against coronaviruses due to its essential role in virus replication. With newly emerging variants there is a concern that mutations in M pro may alter the structural and functional properties of protease and subsequently the potency of existing and potential antivirals. We explored the effect of 31 mutations belonging to 5 variants of concern (VOCs) on catalytic parameters and substrate specificity, which revealed changes in substrate binding and the rate of cleavage of a viral peptide. Crystal structures of 11 M pro mutants provided structural insight into their altered functionality. Additionally, we show M pro mutations influence proteolysis of an immunomodulatory host protein Galectin-8 (Gal-8) and a subsequent significant decrease in cytokine secretion, providing evidence for alterations in the escape of host-antiviral mechanisms. Accordingly, mutations associated with the Gamma VOC and highly virulent Delta VOC resulted in a significant increase in Gal-8 cleavage. Importantly, IC50s of nirmatrelvir (Pfizer) and our irreversible inhibitor AVI-8053 demonstrated no changes in potency for both drugs for all mutants, suggesting M pro will remain a high-priority antiviral drug candidate as SARS-CoV-2 evolves.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Formulation and Performance Evaluation of Epoxy Sealant Systems for Double-Shell Tank Bottom Refurbishment

The performance of epoxy sealants used in the refurbishment of double-shell tank (DST) systems requires balancing processability, thermomechanical stability, and adhesion to cementitious substrates. This study incorporates Heloxy 8 as a reactive diluent into Westlake 862 epoxy to tailor workability and cured-state properties. Rheological time-sweep analysis demonstrates that increasing the diluent content significantly reduces complex viscosity and extends workability, thereby improving pumpability and flow for large-area applications. However, the targeted 2-hour processing window is not fully achieved. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) confirms that all formulations cure at room temperature to glass transition temperatures ( T g ) at least 20 °C above the maximum DST operating temperature (27 °C), thereby ensuring service in the glassy regime. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) reveals formulation-dependent reductions in tan delta and increases in storage modulus, indicating increasingly elastic and mechanically stable networks with diluent incorporation. Pull-off adhesion testing shows that modified formulations (70–90% Westlake epoxy) exhibit significantly higher adhesion strengths than the unmodified system. Grout cohesive failure indicates that interfacial bonding exceeds substrate strength. Collectively, these results demonstrate that controlled reactive diluent incorporation enables optimization of processing behavior, interfacial adhesion, and thermomechanical performance, supporting the suitability of the modified epoxy systems as durable sealant layers for cementitious barrier applications in hazardous waste containment infrastructure.

Differential scanning calorimetry↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mixed Length Scale Model for Migrating Fluvial Bedforms

With the expansion of hydropower, in-stream converters, flood-protection infrastructures, and growing concerns on deltas fragile ecosystems, there is a pressing need to evaluate and monitor bedform sediment mass flux. It is critical to estimate real-time bedform size and migration velocity and provide a theoretical framework to convert easily accessible time histories of bed elevations into spatially evolving patterns. In this study, we collected spatiotemporally resolved bathymetries from laboratory flumes and the Colorado River in statistically steady, homogeneous, subcritical flow conditions. Wave number and frequency spectra of bed elevations show compelling evidence of scale-dependent velocity for the hierarchy of migrating bedforms observed in the laboratory and field. New scaling laws were applied to describe the full range of migration velocities as function of two dimensionless groups based on the bed shear velocity, sediment diameter, and water depth. Further simplification resulted in a mixed length scale model estimating scale-dependent migration velocities, without requiring bedform classification or identification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equation of State and Spin Crossover of (Al, Fe)–Phase H

The transport of hydrogen into Earth's deep interior may have an impact on lower mantle dynamics as well as on the seismic signature of subducted material. Due to the stability of the hydrous phases δ-AlOOH (delta phase), MgSiO 2 (OH) 2 (phase H), and ε-FeOOH at high temperatures and pressures, their solid solutions may transport significant amounts of hydrogen as deep as the core-mantle boundary. Here we have constrained the equation of state, including the effects of a spin crossover in the Fe 3+ atoms, of (Al, Fe)-phase H: Al 0.84 Fe 3+ 0.07 Mg 0.02 Si 0.06 OOH, using powder X-ray diffraction measurements to 125 GPa, supported by synchrotron Mössbauer spectroscopy measurements on (Al, Fe)-phase H and δ-(Al, Fe)OOH. The changes in spin state of Fe 3+ in (Al, Fe)-phase H results in a significant decrease in bulk sound velocity and occurs over a different pressure range (48–62 GPa) compared with δ-(Al, Fe)OOH (32–40 GPa). Changes in axial compressibilities indicate a decrease in the compressibility of hydrogen bonds in (Al, Fe)-phase H near 30 GPa, which may be associated with hydrogen bond symmetrization. The formation of (Al, Fe)-phase H in subducted oceanic crust may contribute to scattering of seismic waves in the mid-lower mantle (~1,100–1,550 km). Accumulation of 1–4 wt.% (Al, Fe)-phase H could reproduce some of the seismic signatures of large, low seismic-velocity provinces. Our results suggest that changes in the electronic structure of phases in the (δ-AlOOH)-(MgSiO 2 (OH) 2 )-(ε-FeOOH) solid solution are sensitive to composition and that the presence of these phases in subducted oceanic crust could be seismically detectable throughout the lower mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia

Twenty historical and future Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble for Europe simulations are bias corrected to investigate the future changes in the daily maximum wind speed over Scandinavia. We use quantile mapping to adjust the wind for the historical period (1985–2014) and quantile delta mapping for two future periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100, RCP8.5) with the 3-km spatial resolution NORA3 hindcast as the reference data set. Decomposing the variance, we find that most of the inter-model spread in the bias and the response to climate change is due to the regional climate model over land and mainly to the general climate model over sea. On average, the mean daily maximum wind speed is projected to increase everywhere except along the western coast of Norway and Denmark. In summer, we see an opposite sign over Sweden and Finland. The Norwegian Sea experiences weaker mean and high wind whereas the Baltic Sea experiences a strengthening. Bias correction influences the amplitude of the response, not the response pattern. Wind speed distributions can have different shapes in the future, with, for example, a flattening of the distribution off the coast of Norway with more frequent weak and very strong winds. Apart from a few locations in Norway, we find an increase in the number of days in the local highest historical wind category. Overall, summer exhibits opposite signals compared to the three other seasons. At country scale, the sign of the change in the mean and 98th percentile varies greatly depending on the region and among the simulations, especially for Norway.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Assessment of a Novel Approach for Ecosystem Warming Experiments in High‐Energy Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Coastal salt marshes have an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Direct and indirect responses to warming are expected to vary along the marsh elevation gradient, making ecosystem responses to warming at this marine‐terrestrial ecotone uncertain. The Marsh Ecosystem Response to Increased Temperatures (MERIT) experiment was established in 2018 on the North Sea coast of Germany. Experimental plots are evenly distributed over three elevational marsh zones (pioneer, low marsh, and high marsh) and include three temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5°C, +3.0°C). MERIT's novel design combines active warming (horizontal surface warming cables and vertical soil warming pins) with passive, partially covered domes. For performance assessment, temperature deltas between ambient and warmed plots were calculated and evaluated at seasonal, daily, and diurnal timescales. We used Linear Mixed Models with Residual Maximum Likelihood for evaluating warming treatment effects and constraining environmental factors. MERIT was effective at ecosystem warming in this high‐energy environment both above‐ and belowground. Mixed models show that warming treatment dominates temperature differences belowground and at the soil surface, along with factors such as wind speed, flooding duration, and solar radiation. Aboveground warming was lower than belowground warming, but the dome design minimized issues seen in other open‐top chamber experiments. The combination of passive aboveground warming with feedback‐controlled active surface and belowground heating provides a setup for understanding warming effects on tidal ecosystems without altering the natural impacts of wind, radiation, and tidal inundations at high‐energy coastlines. Our design creates opportunities to expand future warming experiments to remote locations and technically challenging environments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗