Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Decision making”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence

A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.

autonomy↗

Battery State-of-Health Aware Path Planning for a Mars Rover

A rover mission consists of visiting waypoints to gather scientific samples based on set requirements. However, rovers face operational uncertainties during the mission, affecting the performance of its electrical and mechanical components and overall mission success. Hence, it is critical to have a decision-making framework that is aware of the health state of the components when planning the path of the vehicle. In particular, battery degradation, and consequently the battery State of Health (SOH), can affect the optimality of decisions made by the autonomous system in the long term. This paper presents a decision-making system that incorporates information on the energy drawn from the battery (based on the vehicle’s velocity), terrain conditions, and model-based prognostic modules to assess the impact on the battery’s state of charge (SoC). The decision-making system was formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to reach the goal destination by sending commands in a determined amount of time while maintaining the battery SoC within the policy stated. The MDP problem was programmed using the open-source framework POMDPs.jl, which has a variety of online and offline solvers. To solve the MDP problem online, we used Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Results from simulations demonstrate the effect that battery degradation and charging plans have on decision-making.

Prognostics↗

Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

Bardina, Jorge↗

Efficient decision strategies on the flight deck

Both crew productivity and flight safety depend critically on efficient crew problem solving and decision making. But what constitutes efficient problem solving and decision making behavior? Previous work has focused on crew performance in the context of a specific problem type. The present study differs from these analyses in two respects. First, we describe how aircraft crews cope with different types of problems. And second, we attempt to discern characteristics of optimal task management behavior. For this reason, we contrasted the behavior of more effective and less effective crews. Underlying this approach is the assumption that crews whom commit few operational errors also demonstrate most efficient problem solving and decision making behavior.

Fischer, Ute↗

Public Health Applications of Remotely-sensed Environmental Datasets for the Conterminous United States

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is collaborating with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Public Health Informatics to address issues of environmental health and enhance public health decision-making using NASA remotely-sensed data and products. The objectives of this study are to develop high-quality spatial data sets of environmental variables, link these with public health data from a national cohort study, and deliver the linked data sets and associated analyses to local, state and federal end-user groups. Three daily environmental data sets were developed for the conterminous U.S. on different spatial resolutions for the period 2003-2008: (1) spatial surfaces of estimated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures on a 10-km grid using the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground observations and NASA's MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data; (2) a 1-km grid of Land Surface Temperature (LST) using MODIS data; and (3) a 12-km grid of daily Incoming Solar Radiation (Insolation) and heat-related products using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) forcing data. These environmental data sets were linked with public health data from the UAB REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) national cohort study to determine whether exposures to these environmental risk factors are related to cognitive decline, stroke and other health outcomes. These environmental datasets and the results of the public health linkage analyses will be disseminated to end-users for decision-making through the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system and through peer-reviewed publications respectively. The linkage of these data with the CDC WONDER system substantially expands public access to NASA data, making their use by a wide range of decision makers feasible. By successful completion of this research, decision-making activities, including policy-making and clinical decision-making, can be positively affected through utilization of the data products and analyses provided on the CDC WONDER system.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Operational Characteristics Identification and Simulation Model Verification for Incheon International Airport

Incheon International Airport (ICN) is one of the hub airports in East Asia. Airport operations at ICN have been growing more than 5% per year in the past five years. According to the current airport expansion plan, a new passenger terminal will be added and the current cargo ramp will be expanded in 2018. This expansion project will bring 77 new stands without adding a new runway to the airport. Due to such continuous growth in airport operations and future expansion of the ramps, it will be highly likely that airport surface traffic will experience more congestion, and therefore, suffer from efficiency degradation. There is a growing awareness in aviation research community of need for strategic and tactical surface scheduling capabilities for efficient airport surface operations. Specific to ICN airport operations, a need for A-CDM (Airport - Collaborative Decision Making) or S-CDM(Surface - Collaborative Decision Making), and controller decision support tools for efficient air traffic management has arisen since several years ago. In the United States, there has been independent research efforts made by academia, industry, and government research organizations to enhance efficiency and predictability of surface operations at busy airports. Among these research activities, the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) developed and tested by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a decision support tool to provide tactical advisories to the controllers for efficient surface operations. The effectiveness of SARDA concept, was successfully verified through the human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations for both spot release and runway operations advisories for ATC Tower controllers of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) in 2010 and 2012, and gate pushback advisories for the ramp controller of Charlotte/Douglas International Airport (CLT) in 2014. The SARDA concept for tactical surface scheduling is further enhanced and is being integrated into NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstration - 2 (ATD-2) project for technology demonstration of Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface (ADS) operations at CLT. This study is a part of the international research collaboration between KAIA (Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement)/KARI (Korea Aerospace Research Institute) and NASA, which is being conducted to validate the effectiveness of SARDA concept as a controller decision support tool for departure and surface management of ICN. This paper presents the preliminary results of the collaboration effort. It includes investigation of the operational environment of ICN, data analysis for identification of the operational characteristics of the airport, construction and verification of airport simulation model using Surface Operations Simulator and Scheduler (SOSS), NASA's fast-time simulation tool.

scheduling↗

Operational Characteristics Identification and Simulation Model Verification for Incheon International Airport

Incheon International Airport (ICN) is one of the hub airports in East Asia. Airport operations at ICN have been growing more than 5 percent per year in the past five years. According to the current airport expansion plan, a new passenger terminal will be added and the current cargo ramp will be expanded in 2018. This expansion project will bring 77 new stands without adding a new runway to the airport. Due to such continuous growth in airport operations and future expansion of the ramps, it will be highly likely that airport surface traffic will experience more congestion, and therefore, suffer from efficiency degradation. There is a growing awareness in aviation research community of need for strategic and tactical surface scheduling capabilities for efficient airport surface operations. Specific to ICN airport operations, a need for A-CDM (Airport - Collaborative Decision Making) or S-CDM (Surface - Collaborative Decision Making), and controller decision support tools for efficient air traffic management has arisen since several years ago. In the United States, there has been independent research efforts made by academia, industry, and government research organizations to enhance efficiency and predictability of surface operations at busy airports. Among these research activities, the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) developed and tested by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a decision support tool to provide tactical advisories to the controllers for efficient surface operations. The effectiveness of SARDA concept, was successfully verified through the human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations for both spot release and runway operations advisories for ATC Tower controllers of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) in 2010 and 2012, and gate pushback advisories for the ramp controller of Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT) in 2014. The SARDA concept for tactical surface scheduling is further enhanced and is being integrated into NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstration-2 (ATD-2) project for technology demonstration of Integrated Arrival-Departure-Surface (IADS) operations at CLT. This study is a part of the international research collaboration between KAIA (Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement), KARI (Korea Aerospace Research Institute) and NASA, which is being conducted to validate the effectiveness of SARDA concept as a controller decision support tool for departure and surface management of ICN. This paper presents the preliminary results of the collaboration effort. It includes investigation of the operational environment of ICN, data analysis for identification of the operational characteristics of the airport, construction and verification of airport simulation model using Surface Operations Simulator and Scheduler (SOSS), NASA's fast-time simulation tool.

surface operations analysis↗

Toward a Concept of Operations for Aviation Weather Information Implementation in the Evolving National Airspace System

The capacity of the National Airspace System is being stressed due to the limits of current technologies. Because of this, the FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies to increase the system's capacity which enhancing safety. Adverse weather has been determined to be a major factor in aircraft accidents and fatalities and the FAA and NASA have developed programs to improve aviation weather information technologies and communications for system users The Aviation Weather Information Element of the Weather Accident Prevention Project of NASA's Aviation Safety Program is currently working to develop these technologies in coordination with the FAA and industry. This paper sets forth a theoretical approach to implement these new technologies while addressing the National Airspace System (NAS) as an evolving system with Weather Information as one of its subSystems. With this approach in place, system users will be able to acquire the type of weather information that is needed based upon the type of decision-making situation and condition that is encountered. The theoretical approach addressed in this paper takes the form of a model for weather information implementation. This model addresses the use of weather information in three decision-making situations, based upon the system user's operational perspective. The model also addresses two decision-making conditions, which are based upon the need for collaboration due to the level of support offered by the weather information provided by each new product or technology. The model is proposed for use in weather information implementation in order to provide a systems approach to the NAS. Enhancements to the NAS collaborative decision-making capabilities are also suggested.

McAdaragh, Raymon M.↗

An experimental paradigm for team decision processes

The study of distributed information processing and decision making is presently hampered by two factors: (1) The inherent complexity of the mathematical formulation of decentralized problems has prevented the development of models that could be used to predict performance in a distributed environment; and (2) The lack of comprehensive scientific empirical data on human team decision making has hindered the development of significant descriptive models. As a part of a comprehensive effort to find a new framework for multihuman decision making problems, a novel experimental research paradigm was developed involving human terms in decision making tasks. Attempts to construct parts of an integrated model with ideas from queueing networks, team theory, distributed estimation and decentralized resource management are described.

Serfaty, D.↗

ATTRACTOR: Toward Trustworthy and Trusted Autonomous Systems

The question of what it means and what it takes for an autonomous system to consider another autonomous system justifiably trustworthy must be addressed by all who seek to integrate intelligent machine agents into real-world operations. A satisfactory answer to this question is an essential component in accepting autonomous machine decision-making in safety-critical and time-critical environments, such as aviation. Historically, simulation platforms for test and evaluation of complex systems have proven to be effective in assessing performance and contributing to decisions on the fitness of systems to operate in current general and commercial aviation airspace. Moreover, simulations have informed the definition of safety-critical constraints. However, as machine systems progressively take on responsibilities for decision-making traditionally supplied by humans, simulations require enhancement. Mixed reality simulation that integrates real-world platforms and data or high-fidelity simulation data in a sim-to-flight paradigm provides insight into agent interaction and the rationale behind autonomous agent decision-making as well as the capacity for seamless integrated implementation, testing, and operation of systems. Strong simulation capabilities are especially important in the presence of algorithms that hold great promise in decision-making yet increase the uncertainty in the system. Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) is a subproject of NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project. ATTRACTOR’s objective is to build a basis for understanding trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous teams, and thus to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. Because the concepts of trust and trustworthiness must be addressed in a context, ATTRACTOR has chosen Search and Rescue (SAR) in dynamic and unstructured environments, with emphasis on search, as its design reference mission (DRM). During dynamic planning and execution of trajectory-based operations, autonomous agents determine their trajectories given an assigned mission or missions and call for assistance from an appropriate teammate when needed. This experience along with the attendant human-machine and machine-machine interactions, serve as a platform for developing approaches to identifying and measuring trustworthiness and increasing trust. In this paper, we give an overview of some of ATTRACTOR’s research and development activities, findings, and ongoing work.

ATTRACTOR↗

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

DeMott, D. L.↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

Spaceflight Medical Evacuation Risk Assessment Principles - A Qualitative Investigation

BACKGROUND Future human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will require innovative solutions in many areas, primarily those that provide direct medical support to crew on long-duration missions and optimize their health and performance. The associated challenges therein will be numerous, including but not necessarily limited to extended one-way or "asynchronous" communication delays, minimal to non-existent resupply, and a prolonged transit time to "definitive care" ranging from 3-days to 9-months. At the same time, long-duration exploration spacecraft and crew will face restrictions on mass, power, volume, and data far more significant than that seen in current LEO settings. Given these limitations, medical risk assessment is of primary importance, especially evaluating the implications of a medical evacuation of an ill or injured crewmember. Such evacuations are complicated, potentially dangerous, and well may be impossible in certain phases of the mission. Regardless, such issues must be weighed against the risks of the injured crew remaining aboard a spacecraft with limited medical resources. OBJECTIVE This qualitative study drew from the experiences of subject matter experts (SMEs) in spaceflight and appropriate analog environments (i.e., military, disaster, and extreme environment fields) to identify unique principles common amongst medical evacuation considerations helpful in informing future risk assessment tools. Appropriate analog environments included austere operational settings where multiple factors (weather, logistics/limited resupply, denied/extreme environments, and patient condition) resulted in a limited ability to provide definitive local medical care. The fundamental principles in question revolved around scenarios where evacuation became a complicating yet necessary consideration and where life-threatening medical concerns had to be weighed against critical mission objective(s). The primary authors collected semi-structured data gathered through in-depth interviews with 16 subject matter experts (SMEs). Interview questions investigated how these SMEs consider and weigh the attendant risks present in medical evacuation scenarios. Among the critical questions posed were those that sought to understand how the SME balanced the challenges and requirements of medical evacuation (or keeping an injured patient "on-site" aka: "prolonged field care") against the evacuation operation's risks on impacting overarching mission success. The team analyzed interview transcripts for common themes and principles using the qualitative methods of thematic analysis based on consensus, co-occurrence, and comparison. As a result, nine primary risk consideration themes and nine contributing factor themes emerged, all of which will ideally inform future medical evacuation decision-making tools and operational decision-making for exploration class missions. Specific aims for this study included: 1. Identification of common principles used to assess risks and benefits of medical evacuations in extreme environments 2. Identification of common points of friction or complication and challenges in extreme environment evacuations

A T Almand↗

Bringing the Flight Surgeon Console Into the Artemis Era: Constructing A Quick Reference Guide for the Orion Vehicle

BACKGROUND: Historically, NASA flight surgeons working on control console have had access to a quick reference guide that provides tailored clinical information for a variety of medical conditions, symptoms, and events that crew members may experience on the International Space Station (ISS). With the development of the Orion vehicle and its new medical system intended for the Artemis missions, a new quick reference guide is required to reflect the capabilities of this new medical system. OVERVIEW: The Flight Surgeon Quick Reference Guide(FSQRG)offers a variety of information to flight surgeons. For each condition/symptom/event, the guide describes what actions and procedures crew members will perform either automatically or at the instruction of the flight surgeon. The guide describes what further information should be collected, lists potential diagnoses, and further actions available to be taken by the Flight Surgeon or crew. The guide also describes what medications are available to the crew, common clinical decision-making tools, and other terrestrial practices. Due to the significant differences between the ISS and the Orion vehicle in both structure and mission scope, Orion’s medical system is significantly smaller than the ISS’s. When constructing the new guide for the Orion vehicle we began with the ISS version of the guide as a template. We then replaced ISS crew procedure references with their Orion counterpart if one existed. We also added new Orion crew procedure references where clinically appropriate. Reductions or additions to the medical equipment/medication references were made until they were consistent with resources available on Orion. Finally, we constructed a resource matrix that allows flight surgeons to easily identify the location of medications and equipment required for crew procedures. DISCUSSION: The information provided in the updated FSQRG allows flight surgeons to make quick and clinically accurate decisions that can be accomplished within the scope of the Orion vehicle medical system. This timely and accurate decision making becomes more important as missions go beyond low earth orbit and communication becomes more delayed. Such quick reference guides also have the potential to reflect medical systems on future vehicles, missions, and partner vehicles.

Anderson carter↗

A Systematic Approach to Developing Paths Towards Airborne Vehicle Autonomy

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) demands greater levels of aircraft autonomy than are currently implemented today. To enable this requirement, novel aircraft functionalities and technologies as well as supporting airworthiness and operational regulations are required. A structured method to derive a comprehensive list of aircraft level decision-making functions is defined and applied. The resulting function set is programmed into an ontology, and enables autonomous decision-making through the application of a defined decision-making process. Paths to implementing the functions are generated by applying a structured four step method. By surveying current technologies, airspace, procedures and regulations, the paths generation method defines incremental paths to autonomy that the current regulatory environment can support. Opportunities to implement novel technologies and functions are identified, and regulatory mechanisms supporting their implementation are underscored. The analysis provides the tools to further define aircraft functions and paths to their implementation, while demonstrating that for particular use cases, aircraft autonomy is attainable in the medium-term.

Paul Vajda↗

An experiment with interactive planning models

Experiments on decision making in planning problems are described. Executives were tested in dealing with capital investments and competitive pricing decisions under conditions of uncertainty. A software package, the interactive risk analysis model system, was developed, and two controlled experiments were conducted. It is concluded that planning models can aid management, and predicted uses of the models are as a central tool, as an educational tool, to improve consistency in decision making, to improve communications, and as a tool for consensus decision making.

Beville, J.↗

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a probabilistic description of weather (Ref. 9). This paper focuses on. specified probability in a local region for flight intrusion/deviation decision-making. The process uses a probabilistic weather description, implements that in a air traffic assessment system to study trajectories of aircraft crossing a cut-off probability contour. This value would be useful for meteorologists in creating optimum distribution profiles for severe weather, Once available, the expected values of flight path and aggregate delays are calculated for efficient operations. The current research, however, does not deal with the issue of multiple cell encounters, as well as echo tops, and will be a topic of future work.

Sheth, Kapil↗