Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Data Extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Identifying TeV Source Candidates among Fermi -LAT Unclassified Blazars

Blazars, in particular the subclass of high synchrotron peaked active galactic nuclei are among the main targets for the present generation of Imaging Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescopes (IACTs), and they will remain of great importance for very high-energy γ-ray science in the era of the Cerenkov Telescope Array (CTA). Observations by IACTs, which have relatively small fields of view (~few degrees), are limited by viewing conditions; therefore, it is important to select the most promising targets to increase the number of detections. The aim of this paper is to search for unclassified blazars among known γ-ray sources from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) third source catalog that are likely detectable with IACTs or CTA. We use an artificial neural network algorithm and updated analysis of Fermi-LAT data. We found 80 γ-ray source candidates, and for the highest-confidence candidates, we calculate their potential detectability with IACTs and CTA based on an extrapolation of their energy spectra. Follow-up observations of our source candidates could significantly increase the current TeV source population sample and ultimately confirm the efficiency of our algorithm to select TeV sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Secondary neutron production from thick target deuteron breakup

Thick target deuteron breakup is a variable-energy accelerator-based source of high-energy neutrons, with applications in fundamental and applied nuclear science and engineering. However, the breakup mechanism remains poorly understood, and data on neutron yields from thick target breakup remain relatively scarce. In this work, the double-differential neutron yields from deuteron breakup have been measured on a thick beryllium target at ϵ d = 33 and 40 MeV, using both time-of-flight and activation techniques. We have also introduced a simple hybrid model for the double-differential deuteron breakup cross section, applicable in the ϵ d = 10-100 MeV energy range on light (Z ≤ 6) targets. This model features four empirical parameters that have been fit to reproduce experimental breakup measurements on beryllium targets, using the method of least squares. It was shown that these parameters extrapolate well to higher energies, and to other low-Z target materials. Here, we also include optimization of the parameters that modify the Kalbach systematics for compound and preequilibrium reactions, in order to better reproduce the experimental data for beryllium targets at large angles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗

Monotonic Gaussian Process for Physics-Constrained Machine Learning With Materials Science Applications

Physics-constrained machine learning is emerging as an important topic in the field of machine learning for physics. One of the most significant advantages of incorporating physics constraints into machine learning methods is that the resulting model requires significantly less data to train. By incorporating physical rules into the machine learning formulation itself, the predictions are expected to be physically plausible. Gaussian process (GP) is perhaps one of the most common methods in machine learning for small datasets. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of constraining a GP formulation with monotonicity on three different material datasets, where one experimental and two computational datasets are used. The monotonic GP is compared against the regular GP, where a significant reduction in the posterior variance is observed. The monotonic GP is strictly monotonic in the interpolation regime, but in the extrapolation regime, the monotonic effect starts fading away as one goes beyond the training dataset. Imposing monotonicity on the GP comes at a small accuracy cost, compared to the regular GP. The monotonic GP is perhaps most useful in applications where data are scarce and noisy, and monotonicity is supported by strong physical evidence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reduced-Cost Four-Component Relativistic Double Ionization Potential Equation-of-Motion Coupled-Cluster Approaches with 4-Hole–2-Particle Excitations and Three-Body Clusters

The double ionization potential (DIP) equation-ofmotion (EOM) coupled-cluster (CC) method with 4-hole−2- particle (4h-2p) excitations on top of the CC with singles, doubles, and triples calculation, abbreviated as DIP-EOMCCSDT(4h-2p), along with its perturbative DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) approximation, are extended to a relativistic four-component (4c) framework. In addition, we introduce and test a new computationally practical DIP-EOMCC approach, which we call DIPEOMCCSD( T)(ã)(4h-2p), that approximates the treatment of 4h- 2p correlations within the DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) method and reduces the $\mathcal{N}$ 8 scaling characterizing DIP-EOMCCSDT(4h- 2p) and DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(a)(4h-2p) to $\mathcal{N}$ 7 with the system size $\mathcal{N}$. Further improvements in computational efficiency are obtained using the frozen natural spinor (FNS) approximation to reduce the numbers of unoccupied spinors entering the correlated steps of the DIP-EOMCC calculations according to a well-defined occupation-number-based threshold. The resulting 4c-FNS-DIPEOMCC approaches are used to compute DIPs for the series of inert gas atoms from argon to radon as well as the vertical DIPs in Cl 2 , Br 2 , HBr, and HI, which have been experimentally examined in the past. We demonstrate that, when using complete basis set extrapolations and FNS truncation threshold of 10 −4.5 , the 4c-FNS-DIP-EOMCCSD(T)(ã)(4h-2p) calculations are capable of predicting DIPs in agreement with experimental data, improving upon their nonrelativistic and spin-free scalar-relativistic counterparts, particularly when examining DIPs characterized by stronger spin−orbit coupling effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effect of rare earth size on network structure and glass forming ability in binary aluminum garnets

Rare earth aluminate glasses are potentially useful for optical, luminescence, and laser applications. As reluctant glass formers, these materials exhibit unconventional atomic structures. To better understand how their structures correlate with glass formation, we investigate two rare earth aluminum garnet melts, La 3 Al 5 O 12 (LAG) and Yb 3 Al 5 O 12 (YbAG), which represent the relative extremes of good and poor glass forming ability in rare earth aluminates. Structural models have been refined to high-energy X-ray diffraction data over 1340–2740 K. Both melts contain mixtures of AlO 4 , AlO 5 , and AlO 6 polyhedra, with larger fractions of [5] Al and [6] Al in YbAG. Extrapolation of the Al–O coordination distributions to the glass transition match closely with 27 Al nuclear magnetic resonance measurements of (La 1−z Y z ) 3 Al 5 O 12 glasses, z = 0 to 1. During cooling, the mean coordination numbers increase for La–O in LAG from 6.45(8) to 6.98(8) and for Yb–O in YbAG from 6.02(8) to 6.21(8). Linkedness among Al–O polyhedra at ∼2450 K is mostly corner-sharing, with 9% edge-sharing in LAG and 19% in YbAG. Among [4] Al units, both melts have 6% edge-sharing that convert to all corner-sharing upon cooling. Network connectivity is compared using a newly defined metric, K n , that is similar to the Q n distribution but that accounts for the edge-sharing and triply bonded oxygen present in these melts. The lower glass forming ability in YbAG as compared to LAG correlates with more edge-sharing, associated with the larger fractions of [5] Al and [6] Al, and lower connectivity among [4] Al units.

Wilke, Stephen K. [Materials Development, Inc., Ar↗

Support of the Development of EPP Plus SMT Design Method (FY2020 Test Results)

Experiments in support of the development of the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) analysis and Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology continued in FY 2020. The previously developed single-bar SMT (SBSMT) technique was successfully extended to tubular shaped Alloy 617 specimens for evaluation of the effect of primary pressure load on SMT creep-fatigue (CF) properties at 950°C. A series of pressurized SMT tests were performed with various elastic follow-up factors and strain ranges. The results show that the primary pressure load reduces the SMT CF cycles. The reduction of SMT CF life due to primary load was found to be dependent on strain ranges, elastic follow up and test temperatures. These results are crucial for verification of the EPP strain range analysis in the EPP+SMT evaluation procedure. Additionally, hold time effect on the SMT CF life cycles is a determining factor for generating the EPP+SMT CF design curves. Lack of test data in the high cycle and low strain range region results in major uncertainty in developing the design curves. In FY2020, experiments were designed, and testing started on Alloy 617 at 950°C to fill the gap in experimental data. The on-going CF and additional SMT CF with elastic follow-up at low strain ranges will generate the information needed to verify the methods for extrapolation to long hold time and finalize the EPP+SMT design method.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Machine learning-based surrogate models and transfer learning for derivative free optimization of HT-PEM fuel cells

Widespread adoption of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane electrochemical systems, such as fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs), requires models and computational tools for accurate optimization and guiding new materials for enhancing performance and durability. In this contribution, knowledge-based modelling and data-driven modelling are combined using Few-Shot Learning and implementing an Automated Machine Learning framework for the generation of Machine Learning-based surrogate models. Applicability of the resulting model for derivative-free optimization is demonstrated. Additionally, a way of considering extrapolation in the optimization task is presented. Results show that although extrapolation is needed to achieve better solutions during optimization, it can be monitored and managed. As a result, tuning the electrode ionomer binder's properties, such as ionic conductivity, in the fuel cell represents a promising pathway for improving HT-PEMFC performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Accurate hydrodynamic force and torque correlations for prolate spheroids from Stokes regime to high Reynolds numbers

Detailed simulations of flow around various prolate spheroids are performed using multi-relaxation time lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The simulations are performed in the Reynolds numbers range 0.1 ≤ Re ≤ 2000 at different incident angles 0°≤ φ ≤ 90° for various prolate spheroids of aspect ratios 1 ≤ λ ≤ 8. The Re is based on the volume equivalent sphere diameter. From the simulations, accurate correlations for average drag, lift and torque coefficients (C D , C L , and C T respectively) are proposed. The mean deviations between the correlations and the simulation data for C D , C L , and C T are 2%, 6.5%, and 4.7% respectively. Furthermore, the correlations are fitted with the physics in mind such that they can be extrapolated beyond the regimes simulated. The fits are designed such that correlations reduce to analytical (C D and C L ) solutions available for prolate spheroids in the limit Re ≈ 0. At high Re, the correlations mimic the asymptotic flattening of C D as for spheres and therefore, we expect the correlations to be valid until the critical Re (≈ 10 5 ). Furthermore, extensive comparison of our correlations with other high-fidelity simulations from literature demonstrate the accuracy of our work compared to other correlations from literature. This work enables researchers to perform accurate unresolved Euler-Lagrangian simulations for a wide range of elongated particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying uncertainties on fission fragment mass yields with mixture density networks

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we explore the use of one such probabilistic network, the mixture density network (MDN), to reproduce fission yields and their uncertainties. In this paper, we study mass yields for the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf, exploring the number of training samples needed for converged predictions, how different levels of uncertainty propagate from the training set to the MDN predictions, and how well physical constraints of the yields—such as normalization and symmetry—are upheld by the algorithm. Finally, we test the ability of the MDN to interpolate between and extrapolate beyond samples in the training set using energy-dependent mass yields for the neutron-induced fission on 235 U. The MDN provides a reliable way to include and predict uncertainties and is a promising path forward for supplementing sparse sets of nuclear data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Connecting suborganismal data to bioenergetic processes: killifish embryos exposed to a dioxin-like compound

A core challenge for ecological risk assessment is to integrate molecular responses into a chain of causality to organismal or population level outcomes. Bioenergetic theory may be a useful approach for integrating suborganismal responses to predict organismal level responses that influence population dynamics. In this work, we describe a novel application of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB), theory in the context of a toxicity framework (Adverse Outcome Pathways, AOP) to make quantitative predictions of chemical exposures to individuals, starting from suborganismal data. We use early life stage exposure of Fundulus heteroclitus to dioxin-like chemicals (DLCs) and connect AOP Key Events (KEs) to DEB processes through “damage” that is produced at a rate proportional to the internal toxicant concentration. We use transcriptomic data of fish embryos exposed to DLCs to translate molecular indicators of damage into changes in DEB parameters (damage increases somatic maintenance costs) and use DEB models to predict sublethal and lethal effects of young fish. By changing a small subset of model parameters, we predict the evolved tolerance to DLCs in some wild F. heteroclitus populations, a data set not used in model parameterization. The differences in model parameters points to reduced sensitivity and altered damage repair dynamics as contributing to this evolved resistance. Our methodology has potential extrapolation to untested chemicals of ecological concern.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Chromium-coated cladding analysis under simulated LOCA burst conditions

Of the near-term accident-tolerant fuel concepts identified, chromium coatings have been shown to slow cladding oxidation without altering fuel system geometry or greatly affecting neutronic performance. To identify how coated cladding tubes perform under high-temperature accident conditions, pressurized-tube burst tests were conducted in the Severe Accident Test Station at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. To analyze how the coating affects cladding behavior, coated and uncoated cladding burst tests were simulated by using the BISON fuel performance code. Thermocouple data from these tests were fit into axial and azimuthal profiles and combined to generate 3D cladding surface temperatures, and pressure transducer data were compared until cladding failure. Additionally, the cladding temperatures at failure and the internal gas pressure evolution show relatively good agreement between the simulation and experiment results. Simulations were then extrapolated to demonstrate the coatings effectiveness to increasing the cladding burst temperature by using a parametric evaluation of the initial tube gas pressure. This work demonstrates the possibility of an increased cladding failure margin under transient conditions due to the addition of chromium coating, and more pertinently, an increased cladding failure margin from more accurate experimental characterization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Thermodynamic properties of ZrCl 4 with LiCl, NaCl, KCl, CsCl, MgCl 2 , and UCl 3 for molten salt reactor applications

Here, a set of self-consistent Gibbs energy functions has been developed to describe the thermochemical behavior of the major reactive fission product ZrCl 4 with key components in chloride molten salt reactors (MSRs): LiCl–ZrCl 4 , NaCl–ZrCl 4 , KCl–ZrCl 4 , CsCl–ZrCl 4 , MgCl 2 –ZrCl 4 and UCl 3 –ZrCl 4 . Low ZrCl 4 concentration phase equilibria most relevant to MSR applications have been confirmed via differential scanning calorimetry for NaCl–ZrCl 4 , and X-ray diffraction analysis performed on equilibrated samples of NaCl–ZrCl 4 , KCl–ZrCl 4 , MgCl 2 –ZrCl 4 , and UCl 3 –ZrCl 4 . Within the framework of the modified quasi-chemical model in the quadruplet approximation, extrapolations of pseudo-binary models were generated to represent KCl–MgCl 2 –ZrCl 4 , KCl–NaCl–ZrCl 4 , and MgCl 2 –NaCl–ZrCl 4 , which show agreement with phase equilibria data where available without the use of ternary interaction parameters. The optimized thermodynamic descriptions for these systems and others are available in the open-source compendium Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database – Thermochemical (MSTDB–TC).

CALPHAD↗

Multi-fidelity learning for interatomic potentials: low-level forces and high-level energies are all you need

The promise of machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) has led to an abundance of public quantum mechanical (QM) training datasets. The quality of an MLIP is directly limited by the accuracy of the energies and atomic forces in the training dataset. Unfortunately, most of these datasets are computed with relatively low-accuracy QM methods, e.g. density functional theory with a moderate basis set. Due to the increased computational cost of more accurate QM methods, e.g. coupled-cluster theory with a complete basis set (CBS) extrapolation, most high-accuracy datasets are much smaller and often do not contain atomic forces. The lack of high-accuracy atomic forces is quite troubling, as training with force data greatly improves the stability and quality of the MLIP compared to training to energy alone. Because most datasets are computed with a unique level of theory, traditional single-fidelity (SF) learning is not capable of leveraging the vast amounts of published QM data. In this study, we apply multi-fidelity learning (MFL) to train an MLIP to multiple QM datasets of different levels of accuracy, i.e. levels of fidelity. Specifically, we perform three test cases to demonstrate that MFL with both low-level forces and high-level energies yields an extremely accurate MLIP—far more accurate than a SF MLIP trained solely to high-level energies and almost as accurate as a SF MLIP trained directly to high-level energies and forces. Therefore, MFL greatly alleviates the need for generating large and expensive datasets containing high-accuracy atomic forces and allows for more effective training to existing high-accuracy energy-only datasets. Indeed, low-accuracy atomic forces and high-accuracy energies are all that are needed to achieve a high-accuracy MLIP with MFL.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries

Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.

battery↗

Empirical estimation of densities in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 and NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 molten salts using Redlich-Kister expansion

Densities of molten KCl-NaCl-UCl 3 and KCl-NaCl-YCl 3 ternary systems have been estimated using a multidimensional Redlich-Kister model. Temperature and composition dependent Redlich-Kister functions have been used to generate binary interaction parameters in the outlined ternary salt systems. These binary interactions have been used in the extrapolation to ternary system densities. The results of the density extrapolations by Muggianu interpolation scheme provide agreement within 2–3% for the NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 liquids and 11% in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 liquids compared to the available experimental data. Modeling NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 molten phase density with a ternary interaction parameter improved the agreement within 4%. Thermophysical modeling used in this study has shown promising results for use in other material properties, such as viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity of the molten salts. Lastly, the outlined modeling method applied in these specific molten salt ternaries can be used for quaternary or higher multicomponent molten salt systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A critical review of the history of fabricating monolithic U-Mo fuel plates

The fabrication of monolithic uranium-molybdenum alloy fuels, specifically those developed for high-performance research and test reactors, began in the early 2000s. The primary fuel form consists of uranium alloyed with 10-wt% molybdenum in a thin foil coated with zirconium and encapsulated in aluminum-6061 cladding. Over the years, the process has evolved with different types of casting, heat treatments, rolling schedules, and cladding applications. This review examines the history of these fabrication processes and their impact on microstructure and fuel-swelling performance. Even though various fabrication methods were used, we found little correlation between fabrication variation and fuel swelling. This insensitive relationship between fabrication variation and fuel swelling is primarily due to inhomogeneous microstructures that formed during casting and grain refinement that occurred during rolling. We conclude that the fabrication processes we examined produced similar microstructures, indicating that the fuel microstructure is somewhat insensitive to the fabrication parameters evaluated. However, the relatively small amount of historic data, such as those for grain sizes, limited this analysis. More recently fabricated materials, such as those from ongoing irradiation experiment, Mini-Plate-1 and Mini-Plate-2, were also excluded from this analysis and are intended to be reviewed separately. The findings, that fuel microstructure is somewhat insensitive to the fabrication parameters, do not imply that any fabrication method is acceptable, given the uncertainties in data and fuel-swelling observations. For example, only arc melting and vacuum induction melting casting processes were previously explored in the historic fabrication efforts. In conclusion, the findings should not be extrapolated to other casting processes.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗