Probability of tropical cyclone induced winds at the NASA Manned Spacecraft Center
Tropical storms and hurricanes critical winds forecasting accuracy by NASA Manned Spacecraft Center
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Tropical storms and hurricanes critical winds forecasting accuracy by NASA Manned Spacecraft Center
Climatology of tropical storms in North Atlantic Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
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Upper tropospheric temperature anomalies are detected in brightness temperature data from the Nimbus 6 Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS). Brightness temperature anomalies are related to surface pressure anomalies through the radiative transfer and hydrostatic equation. Surface wind speeds at outer radii are then estimated using the gradient wind equation and a shearing parameter. The method is first tested using simulated satellite data constructed from temperature, pressure and height data recorded by aircraft reconnaissance of four hurricanes. Wind speeds in the 80-95 kPa region are estimated with 2-3 m/sec accuracy. Next, 55.45 GHz SCAMS data over eight typhoons during 1975 are used to estimate the radii of 15.4 m/sec (30 kt) and 27.5 m/sec (50 kt) winds. Accuracies of about + or - 80 and + or - 70 km, respectively, are found. It is suggested that the technique be further tested using data from the Microwave Sounding Unit on board the TIROS-N and NOAA 6 satellites.
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The basic analysis equations, i.e., the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation were derived for the nonlinear vertical coordinate, nondimensionalized, and expressed in finite differences on a staggered grid. Special care was taken to transform the hydrostatic equation and the pressure gradient terms of the horizontal momentum equations to nearly eliminate truncation error over steeply sloping terrain. This formulation also eliminated explicit reference to orographically induced variations in the thermodynamic variables so that the variational adjustments are on the scale of the meteorological perturbations. The analysis equations were subjected to the Euler-Lagrange operations as expressed for finite differences and an additional set of five partial differential equations was derived, bringing to nine the number of equations in Model I. Higher order terms, terms containing observed quantities, and terms containing none of the variables to be adjusted were grouped into forcing functions and the equations were solved for the zero order terms. Zero order variables were eliminated between these equations and there resulted two diagnostic equations which take the form of general linear second order partial differential equations with nonconstant coefficients.
Generalized energetics were studied for nonlinear inviscid symmetric instability (SI). It was found that the linear theory fails to predict the stability in certain cases where the basic state is transitional between stability and instability. The initial growth of the SI perturbations can be fairly well approximated by linear theory, but the long time nonlinear evaluations will be bonded energetically if the SI region is finite. However, a further extension of the energetics to conditional symmetric instability (CSI) shows that the nonlinear evolution of circulation will energetically depend much more on the precipitation in a complicated way. By treating the latent heat as a source which is implicitly related to the motion field, the existence, uniqueness and stability of steady viscous (CSI) circulations are studied. Viscous CSI circulations are proved to be unique and asymptotically stable when the heat sources are weak and less sensitive to the motion perturbations. By considering the fact that moist updrafts are narrow and using eddy viscosity of 0(1,000 m squared/s) the stability criterion suggests that some frontal rainbands were probably dominated by the CSI mechanism even in their mature quasi-steady stage.
An assessment is made of the effectiveness of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data gathered over the North Atlantic Ocean area in the 1982 and 1983 hurricane seasons. By the end of the 1983 season, progress had been made in providing high quality analyses and displays of mass, motion and moisture patterns for evaluation. A comparison of mean forecast errors for several different operational models, official forecasts, and the VAS Trajectory model for selected cases in which VAS deep layer mean wind data were available show VAS accuracies that are comparable with those of the official forecasts.
A GOES IR rainfall estimation algorithm was completed and verified. The technique was applied to the South Pacific convergent zone. The NASA earth observation mission series is discussed briefly. Backscatter was investigated using 10.6 micron coherent lidar.
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Optical depth data gathered by the stratospheric aerosol measurement (SAM II) satellite during the 1979-80 winter season are analyzed to study mean atmospheric motions. The spacecraft photometer yielded extinction rates over the Northern Hemisphere in the 8-30 km altitude interval. Filtering was performed to remove the effects of high clouds and polar stratospheric clouds. Free horizontal mixing was prevalent below 14 km, as was a systematic difference across the polar jet stream above that altitude. The aerosol declined in altitude as the winter progressed. The polar vortex is concluded to have a base at the 14 km altitude and an outer boundary which coincides with the jet stream axis. The model accords with atmospheric tracer measurements made during the open-air nuclear testing programs in the 1950s.
A three-dimensional diagnostic model for the assimilation of satellite and conventional meteorological data is developed with the variational method of undetermined multipliers. Gridded fields of data from different type, quality, location, and measurement source are weighted according to measurement accuracy and merged using least squares criteria so that the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation are satisfied. The model is used to compare multivariate variational objective analyses with and without satellite data with initial analyses and the observations through criteria that were determined by the dynamical constraints, the observations, and pattern recognition. It is also shown that the diagnoses of local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components are in good comparison with the observed patterns and tendencies calculated with unadjusted data. In addition, it is found that the day-night difference in TOVS biases are statistically different (95% confidence) at most levels. Also developed is a hybrid nonlinear sigma vertical coordinate that eliminates hydrostatic truncation error in the middle and upper troposphere and reduces truncation error in the lower troposphere. Finally, it is found that the technique used to grid the initial data causes boundary effects to intrude into the interior of the analysis a distance equal to the average separation between observations.
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The objectives were to: (1) develop an objective analysis technique that will maximize the information content of data available from diverse sources, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of observations from satellites with those from more traditional immersion techniques; and (2) to develop a diagnosis of the state of the synoptic scale atmosphere on a much finer scale over a much broader region than is presently possible to permit studies of the interactions and energy transfers between global, synoptic and regional scale atmospheric processes. The variational objective analysis model consists of the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation for a dry hydrostatic atmosphere. Preliminary tests of the model with the SESMAE I data set are underway for 12 GMT 10 April 1979. At this stage of purpose of the analysis is not the diagnosis of atmospheric structures but rather the validation of the model. Model runs for rawinsonde data and with the precision modulus weights set to force most of the adjustment of the wind field to the mass field have produced 90 to 95 percent reductions in the imbalance of the initial data after only 4-cycles through the Euler-Lagrange equations. Sensitivity tests for linear stability of the 11 Euler-Lagrange equations that make up the VASP Model 1 indicate that there will be a lower limit to the scales of motion that can be resolved by this method. Linear stability criteria are violated where there is large horizontal wind shear near the upper tropospheric jet.
The research goal was a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. This presents a formidable mathematical problem. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity are defined. Each model is summarized.
The goal of the research is a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity were defined. The research performed during the second year fall into four areas: sensitivity studies involving Model 1; evaluation of Model 2; reformation of Model 1 for greater compatibility with Model 2; development of Model 3 (radiative transfer equation); and making the model more responsive to the observations.
The present exploration of methods for the interpretation of the Nimbus 7 satellite's Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) vapor patterns and the ways in which they relate to the dynamical structure of individual midlatitude storms employs gridded meteorological data from the First GARP Global Experiment special observing period in order to calculate diagnostic quantities. SMMR patterns for a storm at a weak stage determined from the diagnostic quantities are compared with SMMR patterns for the storm at a stronger stage. A more complete interpretation of the SMMR patterns emerges from these considerations.