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At least 379 records · Page 21

Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗

Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Economic assessment of seismic monitoring for underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) plays a key role in the energy landscape. However, like other subsurface engineering technologies, UHS may cause leakage into the groundwater or atmosphere and possibly induce local seismicity. To reduce these risks, seismic monitoring could be a viable technique to track the UHS plume, detect leakages, and locate induced seismicity events. Seismic monitoring has been proposed to safely monitor UHS, but research in this area is still new and requires field studies. Lab and theoretical studies have demonstrated the validity of seismic monitoring for UHS. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the economic feasibility of seismic monitoring for UHS. Hence, we develop a cost model and open-source Python code for seismic monitoring that considers types of seismometers, comprehensive operational scenarios, detection thresholds, and long-term leakage monitoring. A case study is further provided to validate the cost model on reservoir simulations of UHS. We find that the levelized cost for a 10-year operating UHS site will range on the order of ∼0.003 $\$$/kg. The methods developed in this study could also be applied to the monitoring of groundwater, gas, and/or wastewater injection.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar Modules

The goals of this SETO project (DE-EE0008559, Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar modules) are to address the principal challenges towards the successful commercialization of perovskite solar modules utilizing scalable, high-throughput open-air spray deposition. The successful outcome of the project will provide the foundation of an all open-air spray deposited perovskite solar module with hole transport layer (HTL), perovskite, electron transport layer (ETL), and barrier layer development while establishing a fundamental understanding of perovskite device behavior under accelerated aging conditions. Through this program, we have made significant progress towards a commercializable pathway for perovskites. (1) We’ve demonstrated the successful open-air deposition of perovskite and transport layer materials. These deposition methods were chosen for their inherent scalability, and open-air processing enables a significant reduction in processing costs. These methods are also compatible with high throughputs, demonstrating the fastest perovskite film deposition at these performance levels. (2) Development of a unique all-fiber laser scribing procedure provides a high-performance, low-cost method for further improvements in scalability. (3) Our group has also placed a unique emphasis on device stability. The development of testing standards for perovskite modules is required to thoroughly evaluate potential candidates for commercialization, and we’ve taken inspiration from current industry standards to provide an honest insight into the performance and reliability of our devices. (4) An extensive cost model detailing the specific contributions of each device layer and production component provides the most thorough evaluation of any perovskite technology against conventional silicon and compound semiconductor solar devices. The cost model is a critical advancement that will provide the foundation for evaluating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of this technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Structural health and prognostics management for offshore wind turbines :

Operations and maintenance costs for offshore wind plants are significantly higher than the current costs for land-based (onshore) wind plants. One way to reduce these costs would be to implement a structural health and prognostic management (SHPM) system as part of a condition based maintenance paradigm with smart load management and utilize a state-based cost model to assess the economics associated with use of the SHPM system. To facilitate the development of such a system a multi-scale modeling approach developed in prior work is used to identify how the underlying physics of the system are affected by the presence of damage and faults, and how these changes manifest themselves in the operational response of a full turbine. This methodology was used to investigate two case studies: (1) the effects of rotor imbalance due to pitch error (aerodynamic imbalance) and mass imbalance and (2) disbond of the shear web; both on a 5-MW offshore wind turbine in the present report. Based on simulations of damage in the turbine model, the operational measurements that demonstrated the highest sensitivity to the damage/faults were the blade tip accelerations and local pitching moments for both imbalance and shear web disbond. The initial cost model provided a great deal of insight into the estimated savings in operations and maintenance costs due to the implementation of an effective SHPM system. The integration of the health monitoring information and O&M cost versus damage/fault severity information provides the initial steps to identify processes to reduce operations and maintenance costs for an offshore wind farm while increasing turbine availability, revenue, and overall profit.

Myrent, Noah J.↗

Opportunities for Cost Savings with In-Transit Visualization

We analyze the opportunities for in-transit visualization to provide cost savings compared to in-line visualization. We begin by developing a cost model that includes factors related to both in-line and in-transit which allows comparisons to be made between the two methods. We then run a series of studies to create a corpus of data for our model. We run two different visualization algorithms, one that is computation heavy and one that is communication heavy with concurrencies up to 32, 768 cores. Our primary results are in exploring the cost model within the context of our corpus. Our findings show that in-transit consistently achieves significant cost efficiencies by running visualization algorithms at lower concurrency, and that in many cases these efficiencies are enough to offset other costs (transfer, blocking, and additional nodes) to be cost effective overall. Finally, this work informs future studies, which can focus on choosing ideal configurations for in-transit processing that can consistently achieve cost efficiencies.

Kress, James↗

Blue Rock CropSpanPV - Low Cost Racking for Agricultural Solar Photovoltaics

In this work, a total of four solar panel layouts, applied to Agrivoltaics, are investigated. This study presents two hypotheses: 1. Prefabrication - Lower total cost can be achieved by constructing a pre-assembled, pre-wired solar array in a factory, with automation, then rapidly deploying it in the field. 2. Tension Structures - Using tension structures in a way to suspend an overhead solar array also reduces costs when compared to conventional support methods. Designs are presented for frames to hold the panels. Configurations are advanced to connect the frames into arrays. Supports and foundations to hold the arrays in the desired layout are calculated, selected and presented. Cost models are prepared for the four layouts, which include definition of the business enterprise, the manufacturing operation, and the required facility for production at scale. Cost models include, detail material and task/labor take-offs for both manufacturing and installation. Comparisons with conventional system adapted to Agrivoltaics reveal that the two hypotheses do not hold true. A prefabricated array requires additional material that is not needed in the base system and the cost of this additional material is not outweighed by the cost savings of reduced field installation. The cost of wire rope for a tension structure does result in an economy of material, however, the cost of end connections and tensioning devices adds significantly to the cost of the overall tension structure. Foundation loads with tension structures, especially the large wind uplift seen with a fixed tilt solar array, impose significant constraints and high costs. The following conclusions are recommended for further consideration: 1. Best Case Agrivoltaic Configuration - The best value/lowest cost configuration for agrivoltaics is the installation of solar panels mounted on a single axis tracker in either a 2-in-portrait or 2-in landscape arrangement. This is useful for grazing lands and for staple crops which require high light levels. These applications represent the vast majority of the potential agrivoltaic market. Important elements in this configuration are the specific geometric layout coordinated with the various field operations and a control system linked between the farm equipment and single axis tracker. The control system is to monitor location and orientation, then actively tilt the solar panels or brake the field equipment to provide clearance and avoid collisions. 2. Long Span Applications - The use of tension structures for an overhead fixed tilt array is beneficial where long spans are a necessity, especially where the base support in the project location has consolidated rock near the surface or some other solid structure. One application is spanning wide irrigation canals. Another may be as an installation at the top deck of parking structures. 3. Direct Ground Mount Configuration – Having skids at the base of a pre-fabricated array that extend when the array is deployed, could be a successful design. This could be a useful strategy for dense, flat, ground-mount configurations like that employed by a couple of successful commercial operations (5G Maverick and Erthos). Arrays would be orientated north and south, deployed very low on prepared grade. Arrays would be aligned closely next to each other and anchored with small ground screws or simply with ballast. This same product arrangement could be very useful for rapid deployment and set-up of solar arrays for temporary deployments, disaster response and the military operations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design, processing and testing of LSI arrays, hybrid microelectronics task

Mathematical cost models previously developed for hybrid microelectronic subsystems were refined and expanded. Rework terms related to substrate fabrication, nonrecurring developmental and manufacturing operations, and prototype production are included. Sample computer programs were written to demonstrate hybrid microelectric applications of these cost models. Computer programs were generated to calculate and analyze values for the total microelectronics costs. Large scale integrated (LST) chips utilizing tape chip carrier technology were studied. The feasibility of interconnecting arrays of LSU chips utilizing tape chip carrier and semiautomatic wire bonding technology was demonstrated.

Himmel, R. P.↗

A manufacturing process design for producing a membrane-based energy recovery ventilator with high aspect ratio support ribs

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems represent nearly half of building energy usage in the United States. Recent building regulations requiring increased air turnover within buildings will result in even greater air conditioning usage. To alleviate these concerns, membrane-based heat-and-moisture exchangers known as energy recovery ventilators have been developed to reduce the energy expenditure of air conditioning systems by pre-conditioning incoming air through sensible and latent heat transfer with building air exhaust. Here in this work, we propose and validate a manufacturing process design for channel lamination based on surface mount adhesives capable of meeting the process requirements of a membrane-based ventilator. In particular, the device requires rib supports with height-to-width aspect ratios greater than one. The proposed manufacturing process design is capable of meeting this process requirement by stretching the adhesive after initial adhesive tacking. A manufacturing process flow diagram, a machine tool specification and a cost model are proposed for meeting process requirements. A set of design constraints are developed detailing the adhesive requirements necessary for meeting requirements. The cost model is validated by building a sub-scale mesochannel array demonstrating the ability to meet process requirements. Results show that additional work is needed to validate the curing step but that the process is capable of producing a mesochannel array with an acceptable level of variation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A 12 GHz satellite video receiver: Low noise, low cost prototype model for TV reception from broadcast satellites

A 12-channel synchronous phase lock video receiver consisting of an outdoor downconverter unit and an indoor demodulator unit was developed to provide both low noise performance and low cost in production quantities of 1000 units. The prototype receiver can be mass produced at a cost under $1540 without sacrificing system performance. The receiver also has the capability of selecting any of the twelve assigned satellite broadcast channels in the frequency range 11.7 to 12.2 GHz.

Hreha, M. A.↗

System Resilience Benefits of Dual-Fuel Capable Generators

The growing dependency on natural gas (NG) for power generation raises challenges for ensuring the resilience of power systems during extreme cold weather. Dual-fuel capable generators that can switch from burning NG to distillate fuel oil during a NG shortage offer one way to alleviate these challenges. In this study, the impacts of gas unavailability on the IEEE 73- bus reliability test system (RTS) with 2019 updated generation mixture are explored. An extension to the standard production cost model formulation of unit commitment and economic dis- patch is proposed to allow representation of dual-fuel capable generators that can switch fuels between NG and distillate oil with a specified oil tank capacity and tank refueling capability. The operation of the system under gas unavailability with 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of combined cycle and combustion turbine generators as dual-fuel capable with a one-day supply of fuel oil are simulated using PLEXOS, a production cost model. The dual-fuel generator performance, unserved energy, and system costs are fully assessed.

duel-fuel generator performance↗

Optimization and Analysis of High-Power Hydrogen/Bromine-Flow Batteries for Grid-Scale Energy Storage

For storage of grid-scale electrical energy, redox-flow batteries (RFBs) are considered promising technologies. This paper explores the influence of electrolyte composition and ion transport on cell performance by using an integrated approach of experiments and cost modeling. In particular, the impact of the area-specific resistance on system capability is elucidated for the hydrogen/bromine RFB. The experimental data demonstrate very good performance with 1.46 W cm(-2) peak power and 4 A cm(-2) limiting current density at ambient conditions for an optimal cell design and reactant concentrations. The data and cost model results show that higher concentrations of RFB reactants do not necessarily result in lower capital cost as there is a tradeoff between cell performance and storage (tank) requirements. In addition, the discharge time and overall efficiency demonstrate nonlinear effects on system cost, with a 3 to 4 hour minimum discharge time showing a key transition to a plateau in terms of cost for typical RFB systems. The presented results are applicable to many different RFB chemistries and technologies and highlight the importance of ohmic effects and associated area-specific resistance on RFB viability.

Cho, KT↗

Rapid Turnaround of Costing/Designing of Space Missions Operations

The Ground Segment Team (GST), at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, provides high-level mission operations concepts and cost estimates for projects that are in the formulation phase. GST has developed a tool to track costs, assumptions, and mission requirements, and to rapidly turnaround estimates for mission operations, ground data systems, and tracking for deep space and near Earth missions. Estimates that would often take several weeks to generate are now generated in minutes through the use of an integrated suite of cost models. The models were developed through interviews with domain experts in areas of Mission Operations, including but not limited to: systems engineering, payload operations, tracking resources, mission planning, navigation, telemetry and command, and ground network infrastructure. Data collected during interviews were converted into parametric cost models and integrated into one tool suite. The tool has been used on a wide range of missions from small Earth orbiters, to flagship missions like Cassini. The tool is an aid to project managers and mission planners as they consider different scenarios during the proposal and early development stages of their missions. The tool is also used for gathering cost related requirements and assumptions and for conducting integrated analysis of multiple missions.

Cost estimation↗

Capital Costs for Dual-Use Photovoltaic Installations: 2020 Benchmark for Ground-Mounted PV Systems with Pollinator-Friendly Vegetation, Grazing, and Crops

This report analyzes the installed system cost of various multi-land use PV system configurations. We used PV system bottom-up cost model accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred during the installation to model the costs for conventional PV systems, PV systems co-located with sheep grazing, PV systems co-located with pollinator friendly fields and PV systems co-located with crops. We also conducted extensive sensitivity analysis around different PV system design parameters given the nascent stage of this industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The development and technology transfer of software engineering technology at NASA. Johnson Space Center

The United State's big space projects of the next decades, such as Space Station and the Human Exploration Initiative, will need the development of many millions of lines of mission critical software. NASA-Johnson (JSC) is identifying and developing some of the Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) technology that NASA will need to build these future software systems. The goal is to improve the quality and the productivity of large software development projects. New trends are outlined in CASE technology and how the Software Technology Branch (STB) at JSC is endeavoring to provide some of these CASE solutions for NASA is described. Key software technology components include knowledge-based systems, software reusability, user interface technology, reengineering environments, management systems for the software development process, software cost models, repository technology, and open, integrated CASE environment frameworks. The paper presents the status and long-term expectations for CASE products. The STB's Reengineering Application Project (REAP), Advanced Software Development Workstation (ASDW) project, and software development cost model (COSTMODL) project are then discussed. Some of the general difficulties of technology transfer are introduced, and a process developed by STB for CASE technology insertion is described.

Pitman, C. L.↗

Arctic shipping under global change: A case study of offshore oil exports

We explore impacts of sea ice thinning and evolutions in the energy sector on future use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) versus the Suez Canal Route (SCR), using a case study of shipping oil extracted from the offshore Russian Arctic to China. We combine an integrated human-Earth system model with a shipping cost model to incorporate impacts on both oil production and shipping costs under internally consistent scenarios. We find that the NSR could become cost-competitive with the SCR as sea ice thickness declines, especially in an RCP8.5 scenario, due to decreasing fuel and icebreaker escort costs. In a global energy evolution scenario consistent with RCP2.6, high emissions costs on the longer SCR may outweigh the costs associated with thicker sea ice on the NSR. Our novel framework provides integrated projections of NSR shipping traffic driven by a specific commodity likely to be shipped through the Arctic.

Arctic↗

A paradigm shift - the key to optimal, defensible and transparent waste management, disposal and remediation decisions - 15236

Current methods for structuring nuclear waste management, disposal, and remediation decisions are subject to three major limitations. First, they are based on a series of extraordinarily conservative assumptions. The dominant way of thinking is that, for example, conservative models yield better, safer decisions. Second, they lack methods to meaningfully address and incorporate the 'human dimension'. The dominant way of thinking is that the current approach is sufficient to bring together the values and interests of both internal and external stakeholders in making a decision. And third, they lack a formal method through which both internal and external stakeholders are encouraged collectively to 'think through' complex problems that contain multiple competing objectives so that wise, socially acceptable, and scientifically-defensible decisions are made. To overcome these limitations, a paradigm shift is needed towards a holistic, integrated approach to structure nuclear waste management, disposal and remediation decisions. The first requirement of this paradigm shift is the realization and recognition that the problems faced are decision problems, and that there is a formal theory of decision analysis that can, and should, be used to support finding the best solutions. Decision analysis, very simply, is formalized common sense. The reason it is needed for complex problems is that there are too many moving parts (variables) for humans to manage with out the formalism. Decision analysis leads to addressing problem solving using a combination of a science-based model and a costs/values model. Expectation ('realism') and uncertainty are addressed in the science-based models, whereas stakeholder values, preferences, and desires are addressed when modeling costs and value judgments. Science-based modeling tools have been developed, improved, and used since the current regulatory setting was introduced about 30 years ago. However, modeling of costs and value judgments has not often been addressed using any formal approach, despite the openings that exist in regulations (e.g., CERCLA's modifying criteria and the concept of 'as low as reasonably achievable' referenced in DOE Orders). A discussion of the need and rationale for this paradigm shift is presented, followed by a description of the technical basics of this approach to decision modeling, and ending with an explanation of the steps that are taken in this approach to structured decision-making. A software framework program called Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools (GiSdT - pronounced 'gist') is introduced that supports this paradigm shift. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗