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At least 379 records · Page 21

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Super resolution for root imaging

Premise High‐resolution cameras are very helpful for plant phenotyping as their images enable tasks such as target vs. background discrimination and the measurement and analysis of fine above‐ground plant attributes. However, the acquisition of high‐resolution images of plant roots is more challenging than above‐ground data collection. An effective super‐resolution (SR) algorithm is therefore needed for overcoming the resolution limitations of sensors, reducing storage space requirements, and boosting the performance of subsequent analyses. Methods We propose an SR framework for enhancing images of plant roots using convolutional neural networks. We compare three alternatives for training the SR model: (i) training with non‐plant‐root images, (ii) training with plant‐root images, and (iii) pretraining the model with non‐plant‐root images and fine‐tuning with plant‐root images. The architectures of the SR models were based on two state‐of‐the‐art deep learning approaches: a fast SR convolutional neural network and an SR generative adversarial network. Results In our experiments, we observed that the SR models improved the quality of low‐resolution images of plant roots in an unseen data set in terms of the signal‐to‐noise ratio. We used a collection of publicly available data sets to demonstrate that the SR models outperform the basic bicubic interpolation, even when trained with non‐root data sets. Discussion The incorporation of a deep learning–based SR model in the imaging process enhances the quality of low‐resolution images of plant roots. We demonstrate that SR preprocessing boosts the performance of a machine learning system trained to separate plant roots from their background. Our segmentation experiments also show that high performance on this task can be achieved independently of the signal‐to‐noise ratio. We therefore conclude that the quality of the image enhancement depends on the desired application.

Ruiz‐Munoz, Jose F.↗

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗

An image-driven machine learning approach to kinetic modeling of a discontinuous precipitation reaction

Micrograph quantification is an essential component of several materials science studies. Machine learning methods, in particular convolutional neural networks, have previously demonstrated performance in image recognition tasks across several disciplines (e.g. materials science, medical imaging, facial recognition). Here, we apply these well-established methods to develop an approach to microstructure quantification for kinetic modeling of a discontinuous precipitation reaction in a case study on the uranium-molybdenum system. Prediction of material processing history based on image data (classification), calculation of area fraction of phases present in the micrographs (segmentation), and kinetic modeling from segmentation results were performed. Results indicate that convolutional neural networks represent microstructure image data well, and segmentation using the k-means clustering algorithm yields results that agree well with manually annotated images. Classification accuracies of original and segmented images are both 94% for a 5-class classification problem. Kinetic modeling results agree well with previously reported data using manual thresholding. The image quantification and kinetic modeling approach developed and presented here aims to reduce researcher bias introduced into the characterization process, and allows for leveraging information in limited image data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine learning the microscopic form of nematic order in twisted double-bilayer graphene

Modern scanning probe techniques, such as scanning tunneling microscopy, provide access to a large amount of data encoding the underlying physics of quantum matter. In this work, we show how convolutional neural networks can be used to learn effective theoretical models from scanning tunneling microscopy data on correlated moiré superlattices. Moiré systems are particularly well suited for this task as their increased lattice constant provides access to intra-unit-cell physics, while their tunability allows for the collection of high-dimensional data sets from a single sample. Using electronic nematic order in twisted double-bilayer graphene as an example, we show that incorporating correlations between the local density of states at different energies allows convolutional neural networks not only to learn the microscopic nematic order parameter, but also to distinguish it from heterostrain. These results demonstrate that neural networks are a powerful method for investigating the microscopic details of correlated phenomena in moiré systems and beyond.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DeepLearnMOR: a deep-learning framework for fluorescence image-based classification of organelle morphology

Abstract The proper biogenesis, morphogenesis, and dynamics of subcellular organelles are essential to their metabolic functions. Conventional techniques for identifying, classifying, and quantifying abnormalities in organelle morphology are largely manual and time-consuming, and require specific expertise. Deep learning has the potential to revolutionize image-based screens by greatly improving their scope, speed, and efficiency. Here, we used transfer learning and a convolutional neural network (CNN) to analyze over 47,000 confocal microscopy images from Arabidopsis wild-type and mutant plants with abnormal division of one of three essential energy organelles: chloroplasts, mitochondria, or peroxisomes. We have built a deep-learning framework, DeepLearnMOR (Deep Learning of the Morphology of Organelles), which can rapidly classify image categories and identify abnormalities in organelle morphology with over 97% accuracy. Feature visualization analysis identified important features used by the CNN to predict morphological abnormalities, and visual clues helped to better understand the decision-making process, thereby validating the reliability and interpretability of the neural network. This framework establishes a foundation for future larger-scale research with broader scopes and greater data set diversity and heterogeneity.

Plant Sciences↗

Deep Learning for Intelligent Bubble Size Detection in the Spallation Neutron Source Visual Target

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) will undergo proton power upgrade (PPU), increasing the proton beam power from 1.4 MW to 2.8 MW. From 2.8 MW, 2.0 MW will go to the current First Target Station and the rest will go to the future Second Target Station (STS). The First Target Station uses a liquid mercury target that is contained in a 316L stainless steel vessel. The proton beam is pulsed at 60 Hz, with a pulse of about 0.7μs. When the proton beam hits the target, the intense energy deposition leads to a rapid rise in temperature in the mercury. This temperature rise creates pressure waves that propagate through the mercury and cause cavitation erosion. The power upgrade will cause stronger pressure waves that will further increase damage because of cavitation. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at 1.4 MW. However, at higher power, additional mitigation is necessary. Therefore, the 2 MW target vessel will be equipped with swirl bubblers and an additional gas injection port near the nose to inject more gas in the target. To develop a gas injection strategy and design, flow visualization in water with a transparent prototypical target (“visual target”) was performed. Bubble sizes and their spatial distribution in the flow loop are crucial to understanding the effectiveness of the bubbles in mitigating pressure waves. Bubbles were generated in the visual target under varied conditions of input pressures with helium and air. Images were captured using a high-speed camera at varied frame rates at different positions away from the swirl bubbler and different depths in the flow loop under varying lighting conditions. Initially, methods such as circular Hough transforms were applied after a series of images processing to obtain a general distribution of bubble sizes. Bubbles smaller than 500 μm are preferred to effectively mitigate the effect of pressure waves, which demands an accurate bubble detection and sizing system. Intelligent detection and identification of bubble sizes alleviate misdetection and improves accuracies. Employing neural networks, intelligent detection of bubble sizes and their distribution was developed and provides a robust alternative to traditional techniques. Human intervention was employed to label in-focus and out-of-focus bubbles in the set of training images. An object detection network using a pretrained convolutional neural network was created that extracted the features from the training images. Data augmentation was used to improve network accuracy through a random transformation of the original data.

Rasheed, Fayaz↗

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

Deep Learning-Based Dynamic Modeling of Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters

Inverter-based resource (IBR) models are necessary to analyze modern power system stability and create effective control strategies. Modeling IBRs in converter-rich power systems is crucial, yet challenging due to the lack of commercial information on converter topologies and control parameters. This paper proposes novel convolutional neural network (CNN)–based data-driven techniques for modeling IBRs, addressing adaptability and proprietary concerns without requiring internal system physics knowledge. The proposed method is tested using real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data and demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy. Furthermore, the developed modeling approach is integrated and implemented in the open-source power distribution simulation and analysis tool, GridLAB-D, to illustrate the potentiality of dynamic analysis of large-scale power systems with high IBRs.

deep learning, artificial intelligence↗

Recurrent Convolutional Deep Neural Networks for Modeling Time-Resolved Wildfire Spread Behavior

The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive for use in real-time fire response. Low-fidelity models sacrifice some physical accuracy and generalizability via the integration of empirical measurements, but enable real-time simulations for operational use in fire response. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated the ability to bridge these objectives by learning first-principles physics while achieving computational speedups. While deep learning approaches have demonstrated the ability to predict wildfire propagation over large time periods, time-resolved fire-spread predictions are needed for active fire management. Here, in this work, we evaluate the ability of deep learning approaches in accurately modeling the time-resolved dynamics of wildfires. We use an autoregressive process in which a convolutional recurrent deep learning model makes predictions that propagate a wildfire over 15 min increments. We apply the model to four simulated datasets of increasing complexity, containing both field fires with homogeneous fuel distribution as well as real-world topologies sampled from the California region of the United States. We show that even after 100 autoregressive predictions representing more than 24 h of simulated fire spread, the resulting models generate stable and realistic propagation dynamics, achieving a Jaccard score between 0.89 and 0.94 when predicting the resulting fire scar. The inference time of the deep learning models are examined and compared, and directions for future work are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Neutrino Event Reconstruction with Pixel-Based 3D Readout for Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

In this paper we explore the potential improvements in neutrino event reconstruction that a 3D pixelated readout could offer over a 2D projective wire readout for liquid argon time projection chambers. We simulate and study events in two generic, idealized detector configurations for these two designs, classifying events in each sample with deep convolutional neural networks to compare the best 2D results to the best 3D results. In almost all cases we find that the 3D readout provides better reconstruction efficiency and purity than the 2D projective wire readout, with the advantages of 3D being particularly evident in more complex topologies, such as electron neutrino charged current events. We conclude that the use of a 3D pixelated detector could significantly enhance the reach and impact of future liquid argon TPC experiments physics program, such as DUNE.

Adams, C↗

Photometric Classification of Early-time Supernova Light Curves with SCONE

Abstract In this work, we present classification results on early supernova light curves from SCONE, a photometric classifier that uses convolutional neural networks to categorize supernovae (SNe) by type using light-curve data. SCONE is able to identify SN types from light curves at any stage, from the night of initial alert to the end of their lifetimes. Simulated LSST SNe light curves were truncated at 0, 5, 15, 25, and 50 days after the trigger date and used to train Gaussian processes in wavelength and time space to produce wavelength–time heatmaps. SCONE uses these heatmaps to perform six-way classification between SN types Ia, II, Ibc, Ia-91bg, Iax, and SLSN-I. SCONE is able to perform classification with or without redshift, but we show that incorporating redshift information improves performance at each epoch. SCONE achieved 75% overall accuracy at the date of trigger (60% without redshift), and 89% accuracy 50 days after trigger (82% without redshift). SCONE was also tested on bright subsets of SNe ( r < 20 mag) and produced 91% accuracy at the date of trigger (83% without redshift) and 95% five days after trigger (94.7% without redshift). SCONE is the first application of convolutional neural networks to the early-time photometric transient classification problem. All of the data processing and model code developed for this paper can be found in the SCONE software package 1 1 github.com/helenqu/scone located at github.com/helenqu/scone (Qu 2021).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗

Optimizing automatic morphological classification of galaxies with machine learning and deep learning using Dark Energy Survey imaging

There are several supervised machine learning methods used for the application of automated morphological classification of galaxies; however, there has not yet been a clear comparison of these different methods using imaging data, or an investigation for maximizing their effectiveness. We carry out a comparison between several common machine learning methods for galaxy classification [Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), K-nearest neighbour, logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Neural Networks] by using Dark Energy Survey (DES) data combined with visual classifications from the Galaxy Zoo 1 project (GZ1). Our goal is to determine the optimal machine learning methods when using imaging data for galaxy classification. We show that CNN is the most successful method of these ten methods in our study. Using a sample of ~2800 galaxies with visual classification from GZ1, we reach an accuracy of ~0.99 for the morphological classification of ellipticals and spirals. The further investigation of the galaxies that have a different ML and visual classification but with high predicted probabilities in our CNN usually reveals the incorrect classification provided by GZ1. We further find the galaxies having a low probability of being either spirals or ellipticals are visually lenticulars (S0), demonstrating that supervised learning is able to rediscover that this class of galaxy is distinct from both ellipticals and spirals. We confirm that ~2.5 percent galaxies are misclassified by GZ1 in our study. After correcting these galaxies’ labels, we improve our CNN performance to an average accuracy of over 0.99 (accuracy of 0.994 is our best result).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity Models and Seismic Data

Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity model and synthetic seismic data, produced in collaboration of teams at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory through the National Risk Assessment Partnership. Data is associated with the following publication: Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019. The Kimberlina 1.2 Velocity models were produced by Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, William Harbert, and Lianjie Huang at NETL. The following citations are directly related to the creation of the velocity models: Wang, Z. Harbert, W., Dilmore, R., Huang, L. Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO2 leakage simulations for a model CO2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. V. 76, September 2018, Pages 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.06.011 Wang, Z., Dilmore, R., Harbert, W. Inferring CO2 saturation from synthetic surface seismic and downhole monitoring data using machine learning for leakage detection at CO2 sequestration sites. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, V. 100, September 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103115 The velocity models were built based on the Kimberlina 1.2 aquifer impact data which is associated with the following publications: Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Yang, X., Wainwright, H., and Carroll, S. (2019). Downhole pressure and chemical monitoring for CO2 and brine leak detection in aquifers above a CO2 storage reservoir. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. 91. 102812. 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102812. Xianjin Yang, Thomas A. Buscheck, Kayyum Mansoor, Zan Wang, Kai Gao, Lianjie Huang, Delphine Appriou, Susan A. Carroll, Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 90, 2019, 102803, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803 The synthetic seismic data was produced by Youzuo Lin and team at LANL, and are associated with the following citations: Jordan, P. D., and J. L. Wagoner. Characterizing Construction of Existing Wells to a CO2 Storage Target: The Kimberlina Site, California. Zheng Zhou, Youzuo Lin, Zhongping Zhang, Yue Wu, Zan Wang, Robert Dilmore, and George Guthrie, "A Data-Driven CO2 Leakage Detection Using Seismic Data and Spatial-Temporal Densely Connected Convolutional Neural Networks," International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol 90, 2019.

CO2 Leakage↗

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗