Understanding the Role of Tropical Moisture in Atmospheric Rivers
There has been a long-standing debate about whether tropical moisture export (TME) or local moisture convergence play the dominant role in the development and strength of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). In this work, we quantify the contribution of TME to 29 simulated extreme ARs that affected the U.S. Northwest Coast by “tagging” tropical moisture using water vapor tracers in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. From a case study with strong TME, we find three mechanisms by which TME can contribute to AR strength: direct contribution of moisture, indirect contributions via thermodynamic feedbacks and indirect contributions via synoptic-scale dynamic feedbacks. Focusing on these processes, we divide the 29 simulated ARs into two groups (>25% of TME contribution to inland precipitation as TME-ARs and <25% as NTME-ARs) and find that TME-ARs are characterized by stronger pre-cold-frontal low-level jets and stronger warm air advection. Notably, the ARs with the greatest 2-day precipitation are found to be TME-ARs but with <50% TME contributions, indicating a more dominant role of indirect enhancement of local moisture convergence due to TME than the direct moisture contribution supplying precipitation.