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At least 379 records · Page 21

Benchmarking the Suitability of Novec$^{\mathrm{TM}}$ 4710 for Application in Flux Compression Generators

Here, an experimental study evaluated the feasibility of replacing traditional insulating gases such as SF 6 with C 4 F 7 N (3M TM , Novec 4710) in flux compression generator (FCG) applications. Currently available data indicate that Novec 4710 could offer certain performance benefits over SF 6 . However, the available literature is focused on low frequency (50–60 Hz) and dc at static pressures. To evaluate the performance of Novec 4710 under the pulsed dynamic pressure and temperature conditions found in an FCG, we report a performance comparison between three sets of identical FCGs using air, SF 6 , and Novec 4710 as the insulating gas. The generators used in this study had a single stage, directly seeded design with an armature diameter of 25 mm and a stator diameter of 46 mm. To highlight the performance of the different gases rather than any wire insulation, the stator was constructed with uninsulated wire. Furthermore, the generators were seeded aggressively, making the performance difference between the different gases more apparent. The performance was monitored with a pair of differential Rogowski coils that captured the generators’ di / dt while also using high-speed videography to capture possible gaseous breakdown signatures. The data gathered during this study indicate that Novec 4710 performs at least as well as SF 6 in FCG applications, if not significantly better.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Disentangling the intertwined orders in a magnetic kagome metal

Intertwined orders appear when multiple orders are strongly interacting, and kagome metals have emerged as new platforms to explore exotic phases. FeGe has been found to develop a charge density wave (CDW) order within magnetic phase, suggesting an intricate interplay of the lattice, charge, and spin degrees of freedom. Recently, postgrowth annealing has been proposed to tune the CDW order from long-range to complete suppression, offering a tuning knob for the CDW order. Here, by comparing the electronic structures of FeGe subjected to different annealing conditions and distinct CDW properties, we report spectral evolution associated with the lattice and spin degrees of freedom. We find band evolution linked to a spin density wave (SDW) order present in both samples with and without CDW order, and another evolution connected to the lattice distortions that onset with the long-range CDW order and revert with the SDW order. Our results reveal a rare competitive cooperation of the lattice, spin, and charge in FeGe.

Oh, Ji Seop↗

Berkelium–carbon bonding in a tetravalent berkelocene

Interest in actinide–carbon bonds has persisted since actinide organometallics were first investigated for applications in isotope separation during the Manhattan Project. Transplutonium organometallics are rarely isolated and structurally characterized, likely owing to limited isotope inventories, a scarcity of suitable laboratory infrastructure, and intrinsic difficulties with the anaerobic conditions required. In this paper, we report the discovery of an organometallic “berkelocene” complex prepared from 0.3 milligrams of berkelium-249. Single-crystal x-ray diffraction shows a tetravalent berkelium ion between two substituted cyclooctatetraene ligands, resulting in the formation of berkelium–carbon bonds. The coordination in berkelocene resembles that of uranocene, and calculations show that the berkelium 5f orbitals engage in covalent overlap with the δ-symmetry orbitals of the cyclooctatetraenide ligand π system. Charge transfer from the ligands is diminished relative to uranocene and other actinocenes, which maximizes contributions from the stable, half-filled 5f 7 configuration of tetravalent berkelium.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes from a nutrient removal plant at Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) that transitioned from high to low dissolved oxygen

Operating biological nutrient removal (BNR) wastewater treatment plants with low dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions can reduce energy costs. We report on five metagenomes and 492 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) obtained from samples collected at the Pomona water reclamation plant before and after a DO reduction from 3.5 to 0.7 mg/L.

dissolved oxygen↗

A genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress in US hybrid maize

Global climate change is increasing both average temperatures and the frequencies of extreme high temperatures. Past studies have documented a strong negative effect of exposures to temperatures >30°C on hybrid maize yields. However, these studies could not disentangle genetic adaptation via artificial selection from changes in agronomic practices. Because most of the earliest maize hybrids are no longer available, side-by-side comparisons with modern hybrids under current field conditions are generally impossible. Here, we report on the collection and curation of 81 years of public yield trial records covering 4,730 maize hybrids, which enabled us to model genetic variation for temperature responses among maize hybrids. We show that selection may have indirectly and inconsistently contributed to the genetic adaptation of maize to moderate heat stress over this time period while preserving genetic variance for continued adaptation. However, our results reveal the existence of a genetic tradeoff for tolerance to moderate and severe heat stress, leading to a decrease in tolerance to severe heat stress over the same time period. Both trends are particularly conspicuous since the mid-1970s. Such a tradeoff poses challenges to the continued adaptation of maize to warming climates due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Nevertheless, given recent advances in phenomics, enviromics, and physiological modeling, our results offer a degree of optimism for the capacity of plant breeders to adapt maize to warming climates, assuming appropriate levels of R&D investment.

Kusmec, Aaron (ORCID:000000032295385X)↗

Utah FORGE: GES Well 16A(78)-32 and Well 16B(78)-32 Stimulation Seismic Event Catalogs

This dataset contains seismic event catalogs from the hydraulic stimulation of wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site in April 2024. The data was collected by Geo Energy Suisse (GES) using a variety of seismic monitoring technologies, including 3-component (3C) geophones and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems. These technologies were deployed across several locations, including wells 16A, 16B, and Delano-1, with sensor arrays at multiple depths to capture microseismic activity during the stimulations. The catalogs provide both real-time and manually checked seismic event locations, with detailed parameters such as trigger conditions, velocity models, and data acquisition settings. The dataset includes information on the stimulation stages, event rates, and hydraulic injection conditions for each well, with a report detailing the data acquisition configuration and seismic event location methodologies. Users will need to reference the included report for a complete understanding of the sensor network, data processing techniques, and accuracy considerations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The crystal structure of Fe2S at 90 GPa based on single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques

The Fe-S system was explored in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell at 89(2) GPa and 2380(120) K to better understand the phase stability of Fe 2 S. Upon temperature quenching, crystallites of Fe 2 S were identified, and their structure was investigated using single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques. At these conditions, Fe 2 S adopts the C23 structure (anti-PbCl 2 , Co 2 P) with space group Pnma (Z = 4). This structure consists of columns of corner-sharing, FeS 4 tetrahedra, and columns of edge-sharing FeS 5 square pyramids linked along edges in the b direction. Sulfur is in ninefold coordination with Fe. This work marks the first high-pressure structural solution and refinement of Fe 2 S synthesized in a multigrain Fe+FeS sample at 90 GPa and 2400 K and establishes the stability of C23 Fe 2 S at these conditions. A previous powder diffraction study reports an orthorhombic Fe 2 S phase with a C37, Co 2 Si-like unit cell above 190 GPa. A C23–C37 structural transition is inferred to explain the previously observed unit-cell parameters at higher pressures and temperatures. These results highlight the utility of applying single-crystal X-ray diffraction techniques to high P-T multigrain samples to explore the structural properties of iron-rich phases in Earth and planetary cores.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of the Thermal and Moisture Performance of Insulating Shades

Heat transfer through windows accounts for a significant percentage of a building’s energy use and adds substantially to the peak heating and cooling loads of a home. Over the past 20 years, residential window attachment retrofit technologies have been developed that significantly increase the number of options available to home builders, homeowners, and utilities when considering upgrades of overall window performance. Within the interior window attachments category, honeycomb cellular shades typically have the highest R-values because of their layered or concentric designs. During the winter when the window is fully covered, however, the added insulation reduces the amount of warm indoor air that reaches the window surface, thereby lowering the temperature of the window glass and frame and increasing the potential for condensation to collect on the interior surface of the window. The degree to which this potential is realized depends on the indoor and outdoor conditions as well as the overall thermal resistance of the window and the shades. To examine the condensation buildup potential on the interior surface of the window and the conditions under which this occurs, this report describes experimental research conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in collaboration with Hunter Douglas, using a a controlled environmental test chamber at the Hunter Douglas facility in Broomfield, Colorado. The results will be used to inform the Attachments Energy Rating Council, which provides energy performance information on all rated window attachments products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System

The Illinois Green Economy Network (IGEN) is a consortium of all 39 Illinois community college districts working to grow the green economy in the state. The network aims to build capacity in sustainability and transform education by connecting business/industry and educators to resources, curating information and tools, cultivating partnerships, and advocating for change. Led by IGEN, the goal of the “Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System” project was to create and sustain a comprehensive, statewide strategy that equips education and training providers, workers, businesses, and communities with resources and tools to prepare a solar workforce. A cohort of five Illinois community colleges participated in the program based on their capacity and interest, as well as their potential for and proximity to industry growth in the state: City Colleges of Chicago, John A. Logan College, Kankakee Community College, Lewis and Clark Community College, and Lincoln Land Community College. The project had three Objectives, 1) Address an unmet need by increasing the pool of skilled solar workers, 2) Keep pace with evolving needs of the solar workforce by improving programs to be more accessible and industry-driven, 3) Strengthen IGEN’s capacity as a statewide resource for solar education, training, and workforce initiatives. Overall, over 400 students were trained in solar installation practices, with over 40 businesses engaged. Additionally. the project spurred a number of innovations and the development of effective practices related to establishing and maintaining a solar installation program at a community college. This project sought to identify effective and scalable practices for developing a solar installation program which included the following components: enrolling students into aligned programs; developing curriculum and courses which meet industry needs; placing students in solar installation or related employment; and sustaining programming past grant funding. Through this project- IGEN was able to identify critical components of a solar installation program. Detailed further in this report these components describe 1) Necessary conditions for establishing a solar installation program, 2) Program structures use cases for different contexts, 3) Effective practices related to student pipeline development and program throughout. As a result of this project- all five participating community colleges have expressed support for continuing to offer solar installation training to their students. Additionally, three nonparticipating colleges in IGEN have expressed interest in adopting practice, courses, or curriculum developed through this program. IGEN has also committed to making the curriculum, course structure and other materials available on their website for accelerated adoption of effective practices both state and nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Heating Ventilation Air-Conditioning (HVAC) System Analysis and Optimization for Revit with the OpenStudio Analytical Framework (CRADA Final Report)

This project proposes to integrate the NREL-developed OpenStudio (OS) and its accompanying Analytical Framework (OSAF) into Autodesk’s (ADSK’s) market leading suite of building information modeling (BIM) tools. As a result, BIM users will gain access to advanced (but user-friendly) building energy modeling (BEM), calibration, and design optimization capabilities. Following integration, the BIM software will automatically generate a consistent OS-based BEM model, allowing users to develop projects in an integrated manner, moving back and forth between architectural and engineering perspectives without redundancy or data loss, saving time and effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (AUSC) Pulverized Coal (PC) Plants

This report presents an independent assessment of pulverized coal (PC) power plants operating at advanced ultrasupercritical (AUSC) steam conditions. At AUSC conditions, PC plants generate electricity at higher efficiencies and with lower carbon footprints than PC plants operating at subcritical, supercritical (SC), and ultrasupercritical (USC) steam conditions, such as those examined in previous National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) reports. However, advanced materials are required for commercial operation under these AUSC steam conditions which impact plant economics. In 2001, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) with the Ohio Coal Development Office launched a research program carried out by a consortium of industry and research organizations (the AUSC Consortium) to develop the materials necessary to commercially demonstrate AUSC technology. The results contained in this report incorporate findings by the AUSC Consortium.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Precision Agriculture using Networks of Degradable Analytical Sensors (PANDAS) (Final Technical Report)

Precision agriculture, where sensing of soil, environment and crop conditions are used to precisely synchronize inputs (such as water and fertilizer) to crop needs enhances input use efficiency. This can improve yields and farm profitability while mitigating environmental losses, improving soil carbon content and substantially decreasing energy use for food, feed and fuel crops. Unfortunately, farmers are not yet able to harness the full potential of these management technologies as there is a lack of available management information, and there is therefore a need for sensors that are able to economically measure spatio-temporal variability in soil and crop properties of extremely heterogeneous farm fields precisely at high resolution and at low cost. Real-time, in-situ monitoring of agricultural soil conditions is today carried out using devices that limit the total number of nodes that can be used economically to typically one per acre or less. Higher spatio-temporal resolution sensing would enable more precise agricultural input optimization, with significant benefits to the farmer and the environment. In order to address this issue, this project focused on developing additively manufactured, biodegradable, soil sensors with predicted costs of < $\$$1 per unit to monitor crop inputs (such as water and fertilizer) that predictably, harmlessly degrade away into the soil when no longer needed. These sensor nodes should be easy to place, accurately and continuously monitor soil and crop conditions for an entire season, be read remotely using existing farm equipment, require no ongoing maintenance, not impede farm operations and produce no persistent waste. This approach could enable a >100× increase in information density over current solutions for precision farming of row and other crops, and lead to significant reductions in input energy use and provide increased yield for biofuel crops. Over the course of this project the team at the University of Colorado Boulder, University of California Berkeley, and Colorado State University/Kansas State University investigated a wide range of printable biodegradable electronic materials and sensor designs for determining soil moisture and soil nitrate concentration. These efforts expanded the available materials set for printed soil degradable electronic materials, particularly for conductors, enabling high conductivity and stability. Printed soil moisture and nitrate sensors with suitable sensitivity and selectivity were developed and characterized. Low power and passive wireless electronic systems were integrated with the soil sensors, and testing was carried out with completed sensors to understand their functionality under agricultural conditions. Additionally, other sensor types enabled by the biodegradable materials set created during this project, such as soil microbial activity sensors, were also developed and demonstrated. Project outputs include 10 peer reviewed publications, 4 patent applications, 21 technical presentations, 3 PhD thesis, 10 media reports, 8 additional grants worth over $\$$6M, and the formation of 3 start-up companies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Trends in Light and Temperature Sensitivity Recommendations among Licensed Biotechnology Drug Products

Inherent structural and functional properties of biotechnology-derived therapeutic biologics make them susceptible to light- and temperature-induced degradation and consequently can influence their quality. Photosensitivity of therapeutic proteins continues to be examined, but the commonalities and trends of storage conditions and information about light and temperature sensitivity among currently licensed therapeutic proteins has not been previously surveyed. Using a comprehensive and relational database approach, we conducted a scientific survey of all licensed biotechnology-derived drug products with the goal of providing evidence-based information about recommended storage conditions of formulations sorted by light- and temperature-related attributes as described for each product at licensure. We report the prevalence of indications for light and temperature sensitivity in formulations categorized by their presentation type, number of doses, container type, dosage form and active molecule type. We also report the storage temperature range across formulations and diluents for reconstitution and dilution. Formulations with excipients that potentially facilitate light-induced and thermal degradation were also noted. The result of our analysis indicates that light and temperature sensitivity are prevalent across therapeutic protein formulations. However, when a formulation is reconstituted or diluted, both light and temperature sensitivity are less clear. In addition, light and temperature sensitivity are more well defined in liquid formulations than lyophilized powder formulations, and more well defined in products manufactured in autoinjectors, prefilled-syringes, and pens than products in vials. Overall, our report provides a data-driven summary of storage conditions among therapeutic protein formulations to support the development of future biologic drug products.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean↗