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At least 379 records · Page 21

DONKEY: A Flexible and Accurate Algorithm for Clustering

We propose an accurate clustering algorithm suitable for the varied and multidimensional data sets that correspond to temporal snapshots from on-the-fly nonadiabatic trajectory-based simulations of photoexcited dynamics. The algorithm approximates the underlying probability density function using variable kernel density estimation, with local maxima corresponding to cluster centers. Each data point is then assigned to one of the maxima by employing a maximization procedure. Finally, clusters artificially separated by minor fluctuations in the probability density are merged. The algorithm does not require parameter tuning, which ensures flexibility and reduces the risk of bias. It is tested on several synthetic data sets, where it consistently outperforms conventional clustering algorithms. As a final example, the algorithm is applied to the excited dynamics of the norbornadiene ⇌ quadricyclane (C 7 H 8 ) molecular photoswitch, demonstrating how distinct reaction pathways can be identified.

algorithms↗

Predeployment progress of the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration

This report updates the high-level test plan for evaluating surface deposition on three commercial 32PTH2 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters inside NUTECH Horizontal Modular Storage (NUHOMS) Advanced Horizontal Storage Modules (AHSMs) from Orano (formerly Transnuclear Inc.) and provides a summary of the surface sampling activities that have been conducted to date. The details contained in this report represent the best designs and approaches explored for testing as of this publication. Given the rapidly developing nature of this test program, some of these plans may change to accommodate new objectives or requirements. One goal of this testing is to collect defensible and detailed dust deposition measurements from the surface of dry storage canisters in a marine coastal environment to guide chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) research. Another goal is to provide data for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based deposition modeling. To facilitate surface sampling, the otherwise highly prototypic dry storage systems will not contain SNF but rather will be electrically heated to mimic the decay heat and thermal hydraulic environment. Test and heater design is supported by detailed CFD modeling. Instrumentation throughout the canister, storage module, and environment will provide extensive information about the thermal-hydraulic behavior of horizontal dry cask storage systems. Manual sampling over a comprehensive portion of the canister surface at regular time intervals will offer detailed quantification and composition of the deposited particulates from a realistic storage environment. Discussions of a potential host site for the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration (CDFD) are ongoing. Until a host site is chosen, testing of key CDFD hardware components including the heater assemblies, power skid, and remote data acquisition system will continue. Functional testing of the finalized heater assemblies and test apparatus started this fiscal year. These initial heater tests have shown the assemblies are performing within design specifications. Staged surface sampling of a mockup of a canister outside the AHSM on a transfer skid was also performed. Refinements to the sampling procedures and techniques were captured from observation of these activities and lessons-learned debriefs. These updated sampling procedures and techniques are planned to be tested again in the field using the mockup in order to assure personnel are using the most accurate and repeatable methods possible prior to deployment for actual CDFD testing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Demonstration of Algorithm for Sensor Placement Optimization using Simulation Data

This deliverable reports FY26 progress in advancing a neural-network-based Green’s-function framework for reconstructing neutron-flux distributions from ex-core measurements and for translating reconstruction requirements into a practical detector-layout strategy. Building on the FY25 formulation, the present work had two main objectives: (1) refine and re-evaluate the reconstruction methodology on an updated Purdue University Reactor Number One (PUR-1) model, and (2) develop a systematic, Green’s-function-guided procedure for boundary detector placement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A detailed study of pre-heating effects in electron beam melting powder bed fusion process

Metal-based additive manufacturing processes, such as powder bed fusion with electron beam (PBF-EB) process, also referred to as electron beam melting (EBM), can produce high-density parts with minimal residual stresses due to the uniform and coherent preheating of the powder bed. However, understanding and controlling the multiple stages of preheating is required to enable the production of high-quality, consistent parts of various materials. This work presents a large-scale, multi-layer, three-dimensional numerical analysis focused on studying the preheating stages for predicting thermal history during the PBF-EB process. The model follows a continuous multi-stage cyclic process, that incorporates all the main stages of the PBF-EB process for 316 L stainless steel. This includes the gradual deposition of a new powder layer, the first and second preheating levels of the powder bed, and the energy deposition during melting (excluding the actual melt-pool behavior simulation). The model employs an adaptive time-scaling approach that automatically adjusts the energy deposition for each solution time-increment. This allows for localized changes in time-resolution over an otherwise computationally expensive multi-layer procedure. The material property variations are also taken into account, with an emphasis on the subtle irreversible changes in powder effective thermal conductivity after the two requisite preheating stages of the powder bed. This effect is studied using simplified conductivity models from the literature for partially sintered powder, validated by a dedicated experiment and numerical simulation. The large-scale model is then used to estimate the actual temperatures during first and second preheating levels for 316 L steel, which is not yet fully supported commercially for PBF-EB. Model predictions are corroborated by experiments, using and analyzing IR images, taken at the completion of each layer by the machine’s built-in infrared camera. The current model also incorporates a qualitative assessment for the effects of conductivity change during pre-heating, as well as evaluates the applicability of the time-scaling approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Marginal unbiased score expansion and application to CMB lensing

Here, we present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as variational inference or many simulation-based inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg 2 survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ~6 million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ~10%. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification and Quantification of Beta-Emitters in Waste Packages by Segmented Gamma-Scanning - 20114

A commonly applied method for the non-destructive characterization of the radioactive inventory of waste packages (e.g. 200-l drums) is segmented gamma-scanning. The gamma-emitting inventory is identified via their characteristic lines in the measured spectra. The corresponding net peak areas allow for quantification applying appropriate models. The identification and quantification of beta-emitters present in the waste package require further evaluation. While some of them emit gamma-rays, too, which can be used for identification and quantification, pure beta-emitters contribute to the gamma-spectra only by their Bremsstrahlung-spectra. {sup 32}P, {sup 90}Sr and {sup 90}Y are typical representatives of these isotopes. A method is developed for identification and quantification of these pure beta-emitters in radioactive waste packages. Origin of the procedure is the evaluation of the measured gamma-spectrum. After the identification of all lines present in the spectrum (characteristic gamma-lines, single- and double-escape-lines, X-ray-lines, annihilation peak etc.) this information is used together with calibration data of the detection system and further a-priori information like matrix composition, cross-section data from databases etc. to simulate the spectra without the Bremsstrahlung-components by an appropriate method. This may be Monte Carlo simulations or, like in our case, a computer code taking into account mathematical descriptions of the physical effects like photo effect, (multiple) Compton scattering, backscattering etc. and the attenuation effects of the waste matrix. In any case, the resulting spectrum must simulate the real spectrum without its Bremsstrahlung-component as good as possible. Subtracting the simulated from the measured spectrum then results in the Bremsstrahlung-components caused by the beta-emitters. Prior to evaluation, a set of Bremsstrahlung-spectra is calculated and stored for different beta-emitters in different matrices using the Bethe-Heitler equation. This data set can be extended for new conditions, if necessary, and is allocated in a data base for future application. Applying a non-linear optimization using the generalized reduced gradient method for comparing the calculated with the derived Bremsstrahlung-spectra results in the identification of the beta-emitter and a factor, which is proportional to its activity. The proportionality is determined by previous calibration measurements. The application of the method is demonstrated by measurements on a 200-l mock-up drum and a real waste package. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design Optimization of A generic Fissile Solution for Mo99 production using Electron Beam-based Neutron Generator using MCNP+CFD

Molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) is a medical isotope used in 80% of all medical imaging procedures today. However, 99 Mo is not directly administered to patients for imaging; its decay product, technetium-99m ( 99 mTc), is a metastable isotope with a half-life of ~6 hours. Such a short half-life does not allow for production, separation, and application to a patient before decaying further. Therefore, the solution is to produce the precursor to 99 mTc, 99 Mo. 99 Mo has a half-life of 66 hours, long enough to produce the material and send it to the desired location before it fully decays. Under National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) highly enriched uranium (HEU) minimization mission, the Material Management and Minimization (M3) office leads the Molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) program. A major goal of the Mo-99 program is to develop methods of producing 99 Mo using low enriched uranium (LEU) opposed to the traditionally used HEU domestically in the U.S. Internationally, LEU is the new standard for use in research reactors and isotope production facility. In this study, we introduce a generic fissile solution system for 99 Mo production facility meeting the design requirement of 1) LEU usage as fissile material and 2) subcritical fissile system coupled with a horizontal electron beam (E-beam) accelerator. The focus of this research is to optimize a fissile solution configuration for maximum 99 Mo production yield using MCNP model, and ultimately implement the optimized design with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to understand thermal hydraulic behavior and solution convection characteristic. The report consists of two parts: 1) isotope yield calculation and criticality analysis with a wide range of parametric test matrix, and 2) thermal hydraulic analysis for solution mixing and cooling assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulation-driven optimization of high-order meshes in ALE hydrodynamics

Here we propose tools for high-order mesh optimization and demonstrate their benefits in the context of multi-material Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) compressible shock hydrodynamic applications. The mesh optimization process is driven by information provided by the simulation which uses the optimized mesh, such as shock positions, material regions, known error estimates, etc. These simulation features are usually represented discretely, for instance, as finite element functions on the Lagrangian mesh. The discrete nature of the input is critical for the practical applicability of the algorithms we propose and distinguishes this work from approaches that strictly require analytical information. Our methods are based on node movement through a high-order extension of the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP). The proposed formulation is fully algebraic and relies only on local Jacobian matrices, so it is applicable to all types of mesh elements, in 2D and 3D, and any order of the mesh. We discuss the notions of constructing adaptive target matrices and obtaining their derivatives, reconstructing discrete data in intermediate meshes, node limiting that enables improvement of global mesh quality while preserving space-dependent local mesh features, and appropriate normalization of the objective function. The adaptivity methods are combined with automatic ALE triggers that can provide robustness of the mesh evolution and avoid excessive remap procedures. The benefits of the new high-order TMOP technology are illustrated on several simulations performed in the high-order ALE application BLAST.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Illinois Storage Corridor, CarbonSAFE Phase III: UIC Class VI Permitting Plan

The Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project evaluated two distinct sites to determine the feasibility of commercial-scale CO₂ storage at each. The project leveraged the region's exceptional geological characteristics, particularly the well-characterized Cambro-Ordovician Storage Complex, to enable permanent geological storage of more than 50 million tonnes of CO₂ over 30 years. The two storage sites are located at One Earth Energy (OEE) facility in northcentral Illinois and Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) in southcentral Illinois. Once operational, these facilities will combine to capture and store more than 6.5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year, positioning the ISC among the largest carbon storage regions globally. Preliminary homogeneous dynamic modeling based on regional and site-specific reservoir characteristics indicates promising injection capabilities at both locations. For the OEE site, modeling predicts a maximum allowable injection rate of 3.7 MTPA, with a baseline scenario of 1.7 MTPA over 30 years producing a CO₂ plume radius of 1.4 miles at end of injection. For the PSGC site, incorporating recent well data, modeling indicates a single-well maximum injection rate of 2.1 MTPA, with a plume radius of 4.2 miles at end of injection for the 60 MT over 30 years scenario. The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase III project is to develop and submit Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) permit applications to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 5. The permitting plan outlines comprehensive site characterization, Area of Review delineation, monitoring programs, well construction designs, financial responsibility provisions, and post-injection site care procedures necessary to demonstrate safe, permanent CO₂ storage protective of underground sources of drinking water. Three UIC Class VI permit applications for the OEE site were submitted to EPA in October 2022 and are progressing through technical review, with final permit decision projected by June 2026. Through five rounds of Requests for Additional Information and responses, the applications have been refined to address computational modeling, area of review delineation, well integrity, monitoring protocols, and financial assurance requirements. For the PSGC site, finalized characterization and permitting documentation was delivered directly to the facility in July 2023 due to business constraints precluding formal federal regulatory submission. This comprehensive permitting effort builds upon extensive prior subsurface evaluations and demonstration projects that have confirmed the feasibility of widespread commercial-scale carbon storage in the region.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

The use of subchondral bone topography to approximate the center of rotation of the elbow joint in dogs

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to compare the approximate center of rotation in normal and diseased elbows in dogs. Study design Cross‐sectional study Sample population Computer tomography scans of nine dogs with unilateral fragmented medial coronoid process (FMCP). Methods A board certified radiologist confirmed that each dog had unilateral FMCP, and a normal contralateral elbow. Digital 3D models of all elbow joints were uploaded into a surgical planning software package. Four axes approximating the center of rotation (COR) of elbow joints were generated using five geometric shapes based on subchondral topography of the humeral condyle radius and ulna. Images showing the locations where axes exited the medial and lateral cortex of the humeral condyle were captured and imported into a second software package, for measurement of distances between exit points and the origin of a system of axes. Results In normal joints 20/27 (74%) axes exited the medial cortex, and 25/27 (93%) axes exited the lateral cortex cranial and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. In diseased joints 22/27 (81%) axes exited medial cortex and 19/27 (70%) axes exited the lateral cortex, caudal and distal to the medial and lateral epicondyles, respectively. Conclusion Based on CT‐ derived geometry, the COR of elbow affected with FMCP was generally more caudal than normal. Clinical significance External landmarks approximating the location of the elbow COR are provided, and while not validated, may assist in planning, creation, and assessment of procedures for FMCP.

Berger, Chen↗

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ORNL Package Testing Program Software Quality Assurance Plan

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Package Testing Program (PTP) uses commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software in performing data collection of thermal test results for package designs that contain radioactive materials. Specifically, this software is used to collect temperature data from the furnace, packages, and ambient air to prepare and execute the thermal test specified in 10 CFR 71.73, “Thermal Test.” This software quality assurance (SQA) plan sets forth the guidelines, standards, and procedures that shall be used to provide SQA for PTP software applications. This is a living document that will be maintained for the lifecycle of the PTP program. The SQA plan follows the requirements set forth in ORNL Standards Based Management System (SBMS): Information Technology; Subject Area: Software Quality Assurance. When applicable to the requirements as described in ORNL SBMS, Software Quality Assurance, the software shall be listed in the ORNL Software Registration System (SRS). Exemptions to this SBMS are COTS and firmware that are not modified; spreadsheet applications and personal productivity tools that do not have a utility or safety application, research applications, legacy software, system software, vendor-supplied software used to interface with the vendor’s services, software used within the organization to facilitate processing or management of information, and software developed for applications not specific to the US Department of Energy (DOE).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗