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At least 379 records · Page 21

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗

Active Learning for Language Modeling

Foreign disinformation campaigns undermine national security. Various supervised language modeling techniques in NLP can help to understand and dismantle these campaigns, but they rely heavily on large, labeled (often by humans) datasets. This work provides a solution to this problem in the form of an active learning (AL) framework, which is used to generate labeled datasets and leverage human input for detecting disinformation. The developed AL framework utilizes task adaptive pretraining to fully leverage the unlabeled data and boost the performance of the classifier used for labeling. A disinformation rhetoric metric was developed to measure the presence of common rhetorical techniques used in text that are meant to deceive, for both the classifier and human to use in the task of identifying disinformation. This metric was combined with an uncertainty criterion to create a hybrid acquisition method for AL, and this hybrid method was tested alongside other acquisition functions. A sophisticated and robust stopping strategy was developed to signal the AL process should terminate, saving human time from being wasted on iterations that would not significantly benefit classifier performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Hydro-mechanical coupled modeling of hydraulic fracturing using the mesh fragmentation technique

The inclusion of special interface elements between standard finite elements is becoming a common technique to model discontinuities in porous media using the finite element method (FEM). Recently, it was proved that high aspect ratio (HAR) elements can reproduce very satisfactorily the main features of behavior observed in a single hydraulically-induced fracture. In this paper, the mesh fragmentation technique (MFT) is proposed to extend the application of HAR elements to simulate more general problems involving the formation of hydraulic fractures in rocks by introducing this type of element in-between the standard FE of a typical mesh. The proposed framework makes use of standard FE techniques. Therefore, it is relatively easy to upgrade an existing FE program for continuous porous media to deal with evolving discontinuities. The proposed approach is verified and validated against available analytical and numerical solutions. The crack patterns predicted by the MFT are also compared with the ones observed in the laboratory. The formation of multiple fractures is also analyzed. In all cases, the proposed technique was able to properly capture the main features of rock behavior subjected to hydraulic fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - I : Theory

This paper discusses two cross section interpolation methods commonly found in popular nodal codes; the partial derivatives and multiple tables models. The motivation for choosing a model, and thus a case matrix structure, is a trade off between accuracy and computational cost. Due to decades of experience, there are default structures that are sufficient for current light water reactor analysis. However, this is not necessarily the case for advanced reactor designs. Therefore, it is advantageous to understand the sources of error in cross section interpolation models so that the quality of a case matrix may be improved. A mathematical framework for these models is presented in this work that provides a more rigorous connection between the nuclear engineering field's cross section interpolation methods and the broader mathematical field of function approximation. The two cross section models examined in this paper were found to utilize Lagrange interpolation and are a subset of Lagrange tensor products. Classical results of Lagrange polynomial error analysis were then applied to the partial derivative and multiple tables models to derive expressions for the total point-wise error. The analytical results classify the total error into two parts: the model form error and interpolation error. Finally, based on our observations, a better foundation for improving the quality of a case matrix is proposed. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Scalable and Memory-Efficient Algorithms for Controlling Networked Epidemic Processes Using Multiplicative Weights Update Method

We study the problem of designing scalable algorithms to find effective intervention strategies for controlling stochastic epidemic processes on networks. This is a common problem arising in agent based models for epidemic spread. Previous approaches to this problem focus on either heuristics with no guarantees or approximation algorithms that scale only to networks corresponding to county-sized populations, typically, with less than a million nodes. In particular, the mathematical-programming based approaches need to solve the Linear Program (LP) relaxation of the problem using an LP solver, which restricts the scalability of this approach. In this work, we overcome this restriction by designing an algorithm that adapts the multiplicative weights update (MWU) framework, along with the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, to approximately solve the linear program (LP) relaxation for the problem. To scale this approach further, we provide a memory-efficient algorithm that enables scaling to large networks, corresponding to country-size populations, with over 300 million nodes and 30 billion edges. Furthermore, we show that this approach provides near-optimal solutions to the LP in practice.

Sambaturu, Prathyush↗

The Influence of Disorder in the Synthesis, Characterization and Applications of a Modifiable Two-Dimensional Covalent Organic Framework

Two-dimensional covalent organic frameworks (2D-COFs) have been of increasing interest in the past decade due to their porous structures that ideally can be highly ordered. One of the most common routes to these polymers relies on Schiff-base chemistry, i.e., the condensation reaction between a carbonyl and an amine. In this report, we elaborate on the condensation of 3,6-dibromobenzene-1,2,4,5-tetraamine with hexaketocyclohexane (HKH) and the subsequent carbonylation of the resulting COF, along with the possibility that the condensation reaction on HKH can result in a trans configuration resulting in the formation of a disordered 2D-COF. This strategy enables modification of COFs via bromine substitution reactions to place functional groups within the pores of the materials. Ion-sieving measurements using membranes from this COF, reaction of small molecules with unreacted keto groups along with modeling studies indicate disorder in the COF polymerization process. We also present a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrates the influence of even small amounts of disorder upon both the 2D and 3D structure of the resulting COF.

carboxylated pores↗

One-Parameter Analytical Derivation in Modified Budyko Framework for Unsteady-State Streamflow Elasticity in Humid Catchments

The changes in climate and catchment properties have altered the hydrological processes significantly at different spatiotemporal scales around the world. In particular for finer time scales, changes in water storage, which has been commonly neglected for long-term temporal scales, may play an important role on hydrological processes. Nevertheless, few studies addressed this question in modifying the Budyko framework, with most of them remaining a steady-state assumption on catchment characteristics. Here, in this work, we derive new analytical formulas of unsteady-state streamflow elasticity in a modified Budyko framework, incorporating both storage change and one specific parameter for catchment properties. We study 78 humid catchments in the USA with simulation data of daily hydrological processes from a probability-distribution-based hydrological model (the modified HyMOD). As indicated by results, the annual storage change ratio is linearly correlated with the annual aridity index, and this relationship can be used to estimate elasticity coefficients with our formulas. The estimated elasticity coefficients perform well in simulating the annual streamflow with the power-law model. For different catchments, variability of the unsteady-state elasticity is higher than that of the steady-state elasticity. Unsteady-state streamflow coefficients show significant linear correlation with catchment properties, such as the average slope, average elevation, and catchment area. This study provides a new analytical approach to investigate the interannual stability of catchments with varying climate and catchment properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding EV Charging Pain Points Through Deep Learning Analysis

Current and potential electric vehicle (EV) owners express concerns about the charging infrastructure, mentioning non-functional chargers, prolonged charging times, inconvenient charger locations, long wait times, and high costs as major barriers. Addressing these issues often requires analyzing actual vehicle charging data, which is typically proprietary and inconsistent due to diverse standards and protocols. To understand and improve the EV charging experience, customer reviews are typically used to identify common customer pain points (CPPs). However, there is not a comprehensive method to map customer reviews to a standardized set of CPPs. In collaboration with the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium, this study bridges these gaps by proposing a Systematic Categorization and Analysis of Large-scale EV-charging Reviews (SCALER) framework. SCALER is an integrated, deep learning framework that segments, actively labels, analyzes, and classifies EV charging customer reviews into six CPP categories. To test its effectiveness, we used SCALER to analyze over 72,000 reviews from customers charging various EV models on different networks across the United States. SCALER achieves a classification accuracy of 92.5%, with an F1 score exceeding 85.7%. By demonstrating real-world applications of SCALER, we enhance the industry’s ability to understand and address CPPs to improve the EV charging experience.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Universal Refrigerant Charge Fault Detection and Diagnostics Method Based on Pump Down Operation

The performance of the heat pump system varies greatly depending on the refrigerant charge amount. Improving the refrigerant charge fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) method of vapor compression systems have the potential for increasing energy efficiency and reducing service cost. Previous studies to predict refrigerant charge amount are mostly empirical methods which require significant amount of experimental data for high accuracy. The primary goal of this research is to develop a universal charge fault detection method which requires only a few experimental data with high prediction accuracy.Currently, pump down operations are typical practices by HVAC technicians when they need to open the refrigerant circuit to make a repairment. In addition, compressors have a built-in low-pressure cut-off protection function, and the compressor performance maps are commonly available from manufacturers. The proposed method innovatively utilizes the typical pump down operation, the compressor low-pressure cut-off protection, and the compressor performance map. It does not require any geometry information of heat exchangers, refrigerant lines, or charge buffers.The new charge prediction method is firstly formulated through theoretical analysis, then verified and calibrated by a quasi-steady-state simulation of the pump down process for a residential heat pump system. The quasi steady-state simulation uses an HVAC system simulation framework driven by DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). Preliminary experiment validations with heat pump refrigerant leakage tests demonstrate the deviation of the proposed charge prediction method compared with measurement is within 8%. This technology makes refrigerant charge amount available at the technician’s fingertips and leads to shorter maintenance time and fewer site visits.

Li, Zhenning↗

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Learning-based Non-Stationary Bias Correction (NSBC)

This work develops the NSBC (non-stationary bias correction) methodology to correct temperature projection bias from E3SM. The NSBC deep learning framework consists of a three-part architecture: an auto-encoder for compressing the spatial information, an LSTM for predicting annual temperature mean, and a U-Net for capturing the residual bias in temperature. The non-stationary bias correction (NSBC) framework can correct the non-stationarity of the biases of the climate models, which significantly improves the accuracy of future temperature prediction and improves the overestimation of extreme high temperatures that many existing bias correction methods suffer from. Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The pseudo observations, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-ESM4 model (Krasting et al., 2018) are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The spatial resolution of E3SM and pseudo observation datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM and pseudo observation with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the Auto-encoder model. Python 0-autoencoder.py 3. Train the LSTM Python 1-LSTM.py 4. Generate the annual mean temperature based on trained LSTM Python 2-generate_annual_mean_LSTM.py 5. Train the U-Net. Python 3-unet.py 6. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python 4_evaluation.py Is there a deadline approaching that requires the release of yo

Lucas, Donald↗

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Prototypical Region Proposal Networks for Few-Shot Localization and Classification

Recently proposed few-shot image classification methods have generally focused on use cases where the objects to be classified are the central subject of images. Despite success on benchmark vision datasets aligned with this use case, these methods typically fail on use cases involving densely-annotated, busy images: images common in the wild where objects of relevance are not the central subject, instead appearing potentially occluded, small, or among other incidental objects belonging to other classes of potential interest. To localize relevant objects, we employ a prototype-based few-shot segmentation model which compares the encoded features of unlabeled query images with support class centroids to produce region proposals indicating the presence and location of support set classes in a query image. These region proposals are then used as additional conditioning input to few-shot image classifiers. We develop a framework to unify the two stages (segmentation and classification) into an end-to-end classification model---PRoPnet---and empirically demonstrate that our methods improve accuracy on image datasets with natural scenes containing multiple object classes.

Skomski, Steven E.↗

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

A data-driven perspective on the colours of metal–organic frameworks

Colour is at the core of chemistry and has been fascinating humans since ancient times. It is also a key descriptor of optoelectronic properties of materials and is often used to assess the success of a synthesis. However, predicting the colour of a material based on its structure is challenging. In this work, we leverage subjective and categorical human assignments of colours to build a model that can predict the colour of compounds on a continuous scale. In the process of developing the model, we also uncover inadequacies in current reporting mechanisms. For example, we show that the majority of colour assignments are subject to perceptive spread that would not comply with common printing standards. To remedy this, we suggest and implement an alternative way of reporting colour—and chemical data in general. All data is captured in an objective, and standardised, form in an electronic lab notebook and subsequently automatically exported to a repository in open formats, from where it can be interactively explored by other researchers. We envision this to be key for a data-driven approach to chemical research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A physically based mechanical model for Mullins effect in thermoplastic polyurethanes

Despite decades of research, connecting the chemical and physical structure of thermoplastic polyurethanes to their mechanical properties remains highly challenging. Of particular note are their large-deformation and rate-dependent behaviors, which vary greatly with molecular chemistry, including the type and relative content of soft and hard segments. In this work, we develop a physically motivated mechanical theory for predicting the behavior of thermoplastic polyurethanes. The theory incorporates a representation of microstructural evolution during mechanical deformation, which captures the signatures of stress softening over cyclic loading (commonly referred to as the Mullins effect). There are only eight physically motivated fitting parameters, including a direct dependence on the hard segment fraction. The model predicts that increasing the hard segment fraction leads to higher stiffness and greater energy dissipation, in quantitative agreement with published experimental data. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and validate its predictions across several independent datasets focused on mechanical characterization. Direct comparisons to experimental data demonstrate its predictive capability on the effect of loading rate, cyclic deformations, and applied tension or compression. Altogether, this work establishes a predictive framework that connects polymer chemistry and microstructure to emergent mechanical behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗