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At least 379 records · Page 21

Content and Representation of Information Needed to Support Time-Constrained Problem Solving

NASA’s current mission-operations paradigm originated with Project Mercury and endured with minimum evolution through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions. At its foundation is a near-complete real-time dependence on a ground team to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. Utilizing many engineers and operators with broad and deep expertise; large, distributed datasets including extensive telemetry; and expansive analytical and computing power, this ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years. This approach must change to address challenges associated with missions beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), including infrequent resupply, reduced ability to evacuate, and delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational support. We anticipate that a necessary part of this change will be increased independence for the crew, as roles and responsibilities traditionally performed by ground teams move on board the vehicle. While many risks are associated with Earth-independent operations, one particular concern is ensuring that the crew will have adequate onboard support to perform urgent problem solving when communication with the ground is delayed or intermittent. A key resource that enables the ground team to respond to anomalies quickly and effectively is the extraordinary expertise and experience it possesses. It is comprised of 80+ experts on at any given time, with a combined 600+ years of system-specific experience across 22 unique console disciplines. A small crew will face the unprecedented challenge of independently responding to anomalies that have historically been handled by a team 20 times their size. Another important resource upon which the ground heavily relies to support procedure execution and anomaly response is data. The amount of telemetry data that each flight controller monitors is extensive. In addition, as the ground team works to further assess impacts, trouble shoot, identify workarounds, and oversee procedure execution, it accesses and synthesizes engineering and procedure information, as well as system build, test, and configuration documentation. It is not feasible nor useful to put all these data onboard as crews become more Earth independent. Each member of a small Mars mission small crew will have multiple roles beyond monitoring telemetry and data gathering, and multiple roles within anomaly resolution processes, thereby limiting their capacity for copious amounts of information. Moreover, while access is necessary, it alone is insufficient. Information will need to be compiled, refined, and represented appropriately to support the crew’s reduced attention and expertise. This work seeks to understand the content and representation of information needed to support time-constrained problem solving and decision making by the crew without real-time ground support. To build this understanding, we first surveyed the literature, focusing on how expert problem solvers construct and manipulate their mental models. Next, we interviewed expert problem solvers in spaceflight and analogous domains and surveyed industry solutions for data presentation. Finally, we analyzed current spaceflight operations by investigating flight controller anomaly resolution processes during ISS training simulations and real operational events. These methods led to creating a problem-solving framework that details common themes and features of attending to, assessing, analyzing, and acting on problems in complex, time-constrained domains. Using this framework and the results of our analysis, we identified conceptual data representations needed for crew-led problem-solving. Preliminary onboard user interface concepts to meet identified needs will be presented.

anomaly response↗

Reference Model for an Open Archival Information System

This document is a technical report for use in developing a consensus on what is required to operate a permanent, or indefinite long-term, archive of digital information. It may be useful as a starting point for a similar document addressing the indefinite long-term preservation of non-digital information. This report establishes a common framework of terms and concepts which comprise an Open Archival Information System (OAIS). It allows existing and future archives to be more meaningfully compared and contrasted. It provides a basis for further standardization of within an archival context and it should promote greater vendor awareness of, and support of , archival requirements. Through the process of normal evolution, it is expected that expansion, deletion, or modification to this document may occur. This report is therefore subject to CCSDS document management and change control procedures.

Source record↗

Application of the DNAS framework expansion to occupant population synthesis

Research in occupant behaviour is now using a more elaborate framework of building occupant interaction. Researchers often face challenges in collecting data, particularly for the data to meet the minimum number of required data points and the data interoperability requirements. Researchers address the first issue with the synthetic population and the latter with data ontologies. While synthetic population is commonly used to address the first issue, data ontology development is used to address the latter. The two solutions are complementary to each other. One of the known ontologies in building occupant behaviour research is the Drivers-Needs-Actions-Systems (DNAS) ontology, which has been used by building modelers to describe energy-related occupant behaviour. This paper describes the ontology-based synthetic population generation that can be used in the agent-based modeling (ABM) applications. This paper considers multiple data sources, including ASHRAE Thermal Comfort DB II and IEA Annex 66 data sets. A case study of an office building is used to present the workflow of DNAS framework expansion, synthetic population generation, and agent-based modeling.

Chandra Putra, Handi↗

Lowering entry barriers to developing custom simulators of distributed applications and platforms with SimGrid

Researchers in parallel and distributed computing (PDC) often resort to simulation because experiments conducted using a simulator can be for arbitrary experimental scenarios, are less resource-, labor-, and time-consuming than their real-world counterparts, and are perfectly repeatable and observable. Many frameworks have been developed to ease the development of PDC simulators, and these frameworks provide different levels of accuracy, scalability, versatility, extensibility, and usability. Further, the SimGrid framework has been used by many PDC researchers to produce a wide range of simulators for over two decades. Its popularity is due to a large emphasis placed on accuracy, scalability, and versatility, and is in spite of shortcomings in terms of extensibility and usability. Although SimGrid provides sensible simulation models for the common case, it was difficult for users to extend these models to meet domain-specific needs. Furthermore, SimGrid only provided relatively low-level simulation abstractions, making the implementation of a simulator of a complex system a labor-intensive undertaking. In this work we describe developments in the last decade that have contributed to vastly improving extensibility and usability, thus lowering or removing entry barriers for users to develop custom SimGrid simulators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Near-wall model for compressible turbulent boundary layers based on an inverse velocity transformation

In this work, a near-wall model, which couples the inverse of a recently developed compressible velocity transformation (Griffin et al., Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., vol. 118, 2021, p. 34) and an algebraic temperature–velocity relation, is developed for high-speed turbulent boundary layers. As input, the model requires the mean flow state at one wall-normal height in the inner layer of the boundary layer and at the boundary-layer edge. As output, the model can predict mean temperature and velocity profiles across the entire inner layer, as well as the wall shear stress and heat flux. The model is tested in an a priori sense using a wide database of direct numerical simulation high-Mach-number turbulent channel flows, pipe flows and boundary layers (48 cases, with edge Mach numbers in the range 0.77–11, and semi-local friction Reynolds numbers in the range 170–5700). The present model is significantly more accurate than the classical ordinary differential equation (ODE) model for all cases tested. The model is deployed as a wall model for large-eddy simulations in channel flows with bulk Mach numbers in the range 0.7–4 and friction Reynolds numbers in the range 320–1800. When compared to the classical framework, in the a posteriori sense, the present method greatly improves the predicted heat flux, wall stress, and temperature and velocity profiles, especially in cases with strong heat transfer. In addition, the present model solves one ODE instead of two, and has a computational cost and implementation complexity similar to that of the commonly used ODE model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning Constitutive Relations From Soil Moisture Data via Physically Constrained Neural Networks

Abstract The constitutive relations of the Richardson‐Richards equation encode the macroscopic properties of soil water retention and conductivity. These soil hydraulic functions are commonly represented by models with a handful of parameters. The limited degrees of freedom of such soil hydraulic models constrain our ability to extract soil hydraulic properties from soil moisture data via inverse modeling. We present a new free‐form approach to learning the constitutive relations using physically constrained neural networks. We implemented the inverse modeling framework in a differentiable modeling framework, JAX, to ensure scalability and extensibility. For efficient gradient computations, we implemented implicit differentiation through a nonlinear solver for the Richardson‐Richards equation. We tested the framework against synthetic noisy data and demonstrated its robustness against varying magnitudes of noise and degrees of freedom of the neural networks. We applied the framework to soil moisture data from an upward infiltration experiment and demonstrated that the neural network‐based approach was better fitted to the experimental data than a parametric model and that the framework can learn the constitutive relations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ethical considerations in infectious disease modelling for public health policy: the case of school closures

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around the implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling lack an ethical framework and do not explicitly consider the ethical implications of the work. This creates a risk that the unintended consequences of interventions are overlooked or that models are used to justify decisions that are inconsistent with public health ethics. In this article, we focus on the case study of school closures as a commonly modelled intervention against pandemic influenza, COVID-19 and other infectious disease threats. We briefly review some of the key concepts in public health ethics and describe approaches to modelling the effects of school closures. We then identify a series of ethical considerations involved in modelling school closures. These include accounting for population heterogeneity and inequalities; including a diversity of viewpoints and expertise in model design; considering the distribution of benefits and harms; and model transparency and contextualization. Furthermore, we conclude with some recommendations to ensure that policy-relevant modelling is consistent with some key ethics values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the propagation of cosmic rays in the Galaxy

Cosmic ray propagation in the Galaxy is examined within the framework of the leaky-box model, whereby phenomenological aspects of diffusion and propagation are related to the physical properties of the interstellar medium. The model is parameterized by data on composition, spectra, spectral change as a function of energy, and cosmic ray particle lifetime. It is assumed that electrons and nucleons have a common source within the Galaxy (probably associated with supernova remnants). Lifetime data and leakage length are compared with radio synchrotron and gamma-ray data to establish a place of origin for cosmic rays observed at earth, i.e., at a radius of 0.5-1.0 kpc from earth. It is noted that if the escape length becomes energy independent, all nuclear spectra will flatten, while the electron spectrum remains unchanged.

Ormes, J.↗

Summary of the key features of seven biomathematical models of human fatigue and performance

BACKGROUND: Biomathematical models that quantify the effects of circadian and sleep/wake processes on the regulation of alertness and performance have been developed in an effort to predict the magnitude and timing of fatigue-related responses in a variety of contexts (e.g., transmeridian travel, sustained operations, shift work). This paper summarizes key features of seven biomathematical models reviewed as part of the Fatigue and Performance Modeling Workshop held in Seattle, WA, on June 13-14, 2002. The Workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and U.S. Department of Transportation. METHODS: An invitation was sent to developers of seven biomathematical models that were commonly cited in scientific literature and/or supported by government funding. On acceptance of the invitation to attend the Workshop, developers were asked to complete a survey of the goals, capabilities, inputs, and outputs of their biomathematical models of alertness and performance. Data from the completed surveys were summarized and juxtaposed to provide a framework for comparing features of the seven models. RESULTS: Survey responses revealed that models varied greatly relative to their reported goals and capabilities. While all modelers reported that circadian factors were key components of their capabilities, they differed markedly with regard to the roles of sleep and work times as input factors for prediction: four of the seven models had work time as their sole input variable(s), while the other three models relied on various aspects of sleep timing for model input. Models also differed relative to outputs: five sought to predict results from laboratory experiments, field, and operational data, while two models were developed without regard to predicting laboratory experimental results. All modelers provided published papers describing their models, with three of the models being proprietary. CONCLUSIONS: Although all models appear to have been fundamentally influenced by the two-process model of sleep regulation by Borbely, there is considerable diversity among them in the number and type of input and output variables, and their stated goals and capabilities.

Fatigue/physiopathology↗

Modeling with Scala

The activities and the associated formalisms for modeling and programming have many commonalities. In this paper we emphasize this point of view by modeling two examples in the programming language Scala, which have previously been modeled in the VDM specification language, and the Promela modeling language of the SPIN model checker respectively. The latter Scala model uses an internal DSL for hierarchical state machines, and a simple randomized testing framework exposing the same errors as found with SPIN. We believe, as the examples illustrate, that this use of a modern programming language for modeling is promising, especially if utilizing internal DSLs.

Joshi, Rajeev↗

A New Theory of Nucleate Pool Boiling in Arbitrary Gravity

Heat transfer rates specific to nucleate pool boiling under various conditions are determined by the dynamics of vapour bubbles that are originated and grow at nucleation sites of a superheated surface. A new dynamic theory of these bubbles has been recently developed on the basis of the thermodynamics of irreversible processes. In contrast to other existing models based on empirically postulated equations for bubble growth and motion, this theory does not contain unwarrantable assumptions, and both the equations are rigorously derived within the framework of a unified approach. The conclusions of the theory are drastically different from those of the conventional models. The bubbles are shown to detach themselves under combined action of buoyancy and a surface tension force that is proven to add to buoyancy in bubble detachment, but not the other way round as is commonly presumed. The theory ensures a sound understanding of a number of so far unexplained phenomena, such as effect caused by gravity level and surface tension on the bubble growth rate and dependence of the bubble characteristics at detachment on the liquid thermophysical parameters and relevant temperature differences. The theoretical predictions are shown to be in a satisfactory qualitative and quantitative agreement with observations. When being applied to heat transfer at nucleate pool boiling, this bubble dynamic theory offers an opportunity to considerably improve the main formulae that are generally used to correlate experimental findings and to design boiling heat removal in various industrial applications. Moreover, the theory makes possible to pose and study a great deal of new problems of essential impact in practice. Two such problems are considered in detail. One problem concerns the development of a principally novel physical model for the first crisis of boiling. This model allows for evaluating critical boiling heat fluxes under various conditions, and in particular at different gravity levels, with a good agreement with experimental evidence. The other problem bears upon equilibrium shapes of a detached bubble near a heated surface in exceedingly low gravity. In low gravity or in weightlessness, the bubble can remain in the close vicinity of the surface for a long time, and its shape is greatly affected by the Marangoni effect due to both temperature and possible surfactant concentration being nonuniform along the interface. The bubble performs at these conditions like a heat pipe, with evaporation at the bubble lower boundary and condensation at its upper boundary, and ultimately ensures a substantial increase in heat removal as compared with that in normal gravity. Some other problems relevant to nucleate pool and forced convection boiling heat transfer are also discussed.

Buyevich, Y. A.↗

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

Marais, Karen↗

A control-oriented combustion model framework for compression ignition engines operating on low-reactivity fuel

This work focuses on zero-dimensional modeling of the heat release rate in a compression ignition engine operating on gasoline-like fuels. Due to the properties of gasoline, such as high volatility and longer ignition delay than diesel, the injection strategies can vary significantly from the operation with conventional diesel fuel. Different injection strategies are commonly used to achieve varying degrees of in-cylinder stratification in order to shape the combustion event and maximize efficiency. The proposed zero-dimensional combustion model was developed to account for the different stages in combustion caused by the fuel stratification. As the ignition delay model is an integral part of the entire combustion process and significantly affects the prediction accuracy, special attention has been paid to local phenomena influencing ignition delay. A one-dimensional spray model by Musculus and Kattke was employed in conjunction with a Lagrangian tracking approach in order to estimate the local air–fuel ratio within the spray tip, as a proxy for reactivity. The local air–fuel ratio, in-cylinder temperature and pressure were used in an integral fashion to estimate the ignition delay. Heat release rates were modeled using first-order non-linear differential equations. The proposed combustion model was validated against experimental data of a heavy-duty compression ignition engine with up to three injection events at mostly 1038 r/min and 14 bar brake mean effective pressure. Further validation of the model was carried out at other engine loads and speeds. Model prediction errors in CA50 of less than 1 °CA across all conditions were found. Modeling results of other combustion metrics such as combustion duration and indicated mean effective pressure are also highly satisfactory. In addition, the model has been shown to be capable of estimating the ringing intensity for most conditions.

Pamminger, Michael↗

Niobium's intrinsic coherence length and penetration depth revisited using low-energy muon spin spectroscopy and secondary-ion mass spectrometry

Here, we report direct, simultaneous measurements of the London penetration depth (𝜆 𝐿 ) and Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer coherence length (𝜉 0 ) in oxygen-doped niobium, with impurity concentrations spanning the “clean” to “dirty” limits. Two depth-resolved techniques—low-energy muon spin spectroscopy and secondary-ion mass spectrometry—were used to quantify the element's Meissner screening profiles, analyzed within a framework that accounts for nonlocal electrodynamics. The analysis indicates intrinsic length scales of 𝜆 𝐿 = 29.1⁢ (10)⁢ nm and 𝜉 0 = 39.9 ⁢(25)⁢ nm, corresponding to a Ginzburg-Landau parameter 𝜅 = 0.70⁢ (5). The obtained 𝜆 𝐿 and 𝜅 values, accurately quantified at the nanoscale, are smaller than those commonly used in applications and modeling, and indicate that clean niobium lies at the boundary between type-I and type-II superconductivity, supporting the contemporary view that its intrinsic state may be type I.

Particle Accelerator↗

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions From the Fifth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using a common grid sequence and multiple turbulence models for the June 2012 fifth Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing-body previously used for the 4th Drag Prediction Workshop. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Statistical analysis↗

Reliable and Efficient Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

Modern scientific experiments generate massive amounts of data at a pace much faster than humans can manually analyze. While machine learning has revolutionized commercial data analysis (such as recommending movies or recognizing faces), applying these tools to complex scientific discovery is challenging because scientific answers must be precise, interpretable, and adhere to physical laws. The research under this project aims to develop new mathematical tools and computer algorithms specifically designed for scientific applications. Major progress has been made in automatically cleaning and deconstructing messy experimental data, analyzing the visual information of physical phenomena, determining the underlying physical variables, and providing rig orous mathematical analysis of interesting algorithms and concepts widely used in machine learning. This project addressed the critical gap between our ability to generate massive scientific data and our ability to extract interpretable information from it. We established mathematical foundations for Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) aimed at effective data analytics and automated discovery. Our work focused on three core objectives: (1) developing reliable feature extraction methods for dynamic high-dimensional data, (2) establishing mathematical foundations for discovering dynamics via neural networks, and (3) creating rigorous optimization techniques for these models. Key outcomes come from two fronts. On the practical side, they include the development of algorithms that significantly enhance the extraction of signals from field data, as well as the capability to handle situations that exhibit smooth variations or physical stretching due to temperature changes. They also include the creation of an automated framework for discovering fundamental state variables from raw experimental data, demonstrating the ability to identify intrinsic physical dimensions without prior knowledge of the governing laws. On the theoretical front, the research results in theoretical advances in Optimal Transport, a widely used notion in SciML, specifically regarding functions with fixed-size nodal sets, provide sharp bounds relevant to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, the outcomes also include the establishment of convergence theories for nonlocal gradient descent methods, enabling robust optimization with noisy data in high-dimensional settings commonly encountered in scientific modeling. The project also helps creating opportunities to train the next generation of researchers, equipping them with the necessary technical skills for today’s workplace and preparing them for future advances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization-Based Fast-Frequency Estimation and Control of Low-Inertia Microgrids

The lack of inertial response from non-synchronous, inverter-based generation in microgrids makes the power system vulnerable to a large rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) and frequency excursions. Energy storage systems (ESSs) can be utilized to provide fast-frequency support to prevent such large excursions in the system. However, fast-frequency support is a power-intensive application that has a significant impact on the ESS lifetime. In this paper, a framework that allows the ESS operator to provide fast-frequency support as a service is proposed. The framework maintains the desired quality-of-service (limiting the ROCOF and frequency) while taking into account the ESS lifetime and physical limits. The framework utilizes moving horizon estimation (MHE) to estimate the frequency deviation and ROCOF from noisy phase-locked loop (PLL) measurements. These estimates are employed by a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that computes control actions by solving a finite-horizon, online optimization problem. Additionally, this approach avoids oscillatory behavior induced by delays that are common when using low-pass filters as with traditional derivative-based (virtual inertia) controllers. MATLAB/Simulink simulations on a test system from Cordova, Alaska, show the effectiveness of the MHE-MPC approach to reduce frequency deviations and ROCOF of a low-inertia microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Voltage Calculations in Secondary Distribution Networks via Physics-Inspired Neural Network Using Smart Meter Data

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) leads to voltage issues across distribution networks, necessitating voltage calculations by utilities. Electric model-free voltage calculation offers an enticing solution. However, most researches mainly focus on primary distribution networks ignoring secondary distribution networks and commonly overlook extreme voltage case calculations, which require the model’s extrapolation abilities. Here, in addressing the gaps, this paper presents a customized physics-inspired neural network (PINN) model, the structure of which is inspired by the derived coupled power flow model of primary-secondary distribution networks. To ensure precision and rapid convergence, a crafted training framework for the PINN model is proposed. The PINN’s “structure-mimetic” design enables superior extrapolation for unseen scenarios and enhances physical information awareness. We demonstrate this through two applications: hosting capacity analysis and customer-transformer connectivity. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed PINN model are validated on two public testing systems and one utility distribution feeder model.

Distribution network↗