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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cold Climate Heat Pump Evaluation

The use of heat pumps in cold and very cold climates increased by 63% between 2009 and 2015 [1, 2]. This can be attributed to development of heat pumps with higher heating capacity at lower temperatures and increased efficiency. A primary technology driving this trend is the use of variable-speed compressors, which come with an increase in the level of controls in the equipment. Most units with variable-speed compressors also include electronic expansion valves and variable-speed indoor (ID) and outdoor (OD) fans. With the increased complexity of these systems, developing a test procedure that is representative of typical performance and not too burdensome on manufacturers presents a difficult challenge.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions

The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height, although a poleward shift in the midlatitude jets may also play an important role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over EquatorialCentral Africa, extending from the surface to the mid troposphere which is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

Tropospheric Transport↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hurricane María tripled stem breaks and doubled tree mortality relative to other major storms

Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify under a warming climate, with uncertain effects on tropical forests. One key challenge to predicting how more intense storms will influence these ecosystems is to attribute impacts specifically to storm meteorology rather than differences in forest characteristics. Here we compare tree damage data collected in the same forest in Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Hugo (1989, category 3), Georges (1998, category 3), and María (2017, category 4). María killed twice as many trees as Hugo, and for all but two species, broke 2- to 12-fold more stems than the other two storms. Species with high density wood were resistant to uprooting, hurricane-induced mortality, and were protected from breakage during Hugo but not María. Tree inventories and a wind exposure model allow us to attribute these differences in impacts to storm meteorology. A better understanding of risk factors associated with tree species susceptibility to severe storms is key to predicting the future of forest ecosystems under climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback

The surprising increase of Earth's climate sensitivity in the most recent coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) models has been largely attributed to extratropical cloud feedback, which is thought to be driven by greater supercooled water in present-day cloud phase partitioning (CPP). Here, we report that accounting for precipitation in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE3 radiation scheme, neglected in more than 60% of CMIP6 and 90% of CMIP5 models, systematically changes its apparent CPP and substantially increases its cloud feedback, consistent with results using CMIP models. Including precipitation in the comparison with cloud–aerosol lidar and infrared pathfinder satellite observations (CALIPSO) measurements and in model radiation schemes is essential to faithfully constrain cloud amount and phase partitioning, and simulate cloud feedbacks. Our findings suggest that making radiation schemes precipitation-aware (missing in most CMIP6 models) should strengthen their positive cloud feedback and further increase their already high mean climate sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Snow Reconciles Observed and Simulated Phase Partitioning and Increases Cloud Feedback

The surprising increase of Earth's climate sensitivity in the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models has been largely attributed to extratropical cloud feedback, which is thought to be driven by greater supercooled water in present-day cloud phase partitioning (CPP). Here we report that accounting for precipitation in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE3 radiation scheme, neglected in more than 60% of CMIP6 and 90% of CMIP5 models, systematically changes its apparent CPP and substantially increases its cloud feedback, consistent with results using CMIP models. Including precipitation in the comparison with Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) measurements and in model radiation schemes is essential to faithfully constrain cloud amount and phase partitioning, and simulate cloud feedbacks. Our findings suggest that making radiation schemes precipitation-aware (missing in most CMIP6 models) should strengthen their positive cloud feedback and further increase their already high mean climate sensitivity.

Earth's climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year analysis of physical interactions between solar PV arrays and underlying soil-plant complex in vegetated utility-scale systems

Concerns over the land use changes impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) development are increasing as PV energy development expands. Co-locating utility-scale solar energy with vegetation may maintain or rehabilitate the land's ability to provide ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that vegetation under and around the panels may improve the performance of the co-located PV and that PV may create a favorable environment for the growth of vegetation. While there have been some pilot-scale experiments, the existence and magnitude of these benefits of vegetation has not been confirmed in a utility-scale PV facility over multiple years. In this study we use power output data coupled with microclimatic measurements in temperate climates to assess these potential benefits. Here this study combines multi-year microclimatic measurements to analyze the physical interactions between PV arrays and the underlying soil-vegetation system in three utility-scale PV facilities in Minnesota, USA. No significant cooling of PV panels or increased power production was observed in PV arrays with underlying vegetation. Fine soil particle fraction was the highest in soils within PV arrays with the vegetation which was attributable to the lowest wind speeds from the compounding suppression of wind by vegetation and PV arrays. Soil moisture and soil nutrient response to re-vegetation varied between PV facilities, which could be attributed to differing soil texture. No statistically significant vegetation-driven panel cooling was observed in this climate. This finding prompts a need for site-specific studies to identify contributing factors for environmental co-benefits in co-located systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback

Earth's climate stability, characterized by the global radiative feedback parameter (𝜆), varies decadally due to changing surface temperature patterns. Recent variations in 𝜆 are poorly understood as coordinated model simulations typically end in 2014. We apply a convolutional neural network trained on climate model simulations to observation-based surface temperature reconstructions to estimate variations in 𝜆 up to 2025. We find that 𝜆 reached a minimum (maximum stability) around the mid 1990s (𝜆 ≃ −3 Wm −2 /K), but has since weakened significantly (𝜆 ≃ −2 Wm −2 /K). We confirm these results with climate model simulations extended to 2022. The recent 𝜆 weakening is not significantly affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Attribution reveals that warming in the subtropical Northeast Pacific is an important driver of the recently weakened feedback, confirmed by targeted experiments in E3SMv2. Our approach enables near real-time monitoring of Earth's climate stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scattering and Absorbing Aerosols in the Climate System

Tropospheric anthropogenic aerosols contribute the second-largest forcing to climate change, but with high uncertainty owing to their spatio-temporal variability and complicated optical properties. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of aerosol observations and their radiative and climate effects. Aerosols offset about one-third of the warming effect by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Yet, in regions and seasons where the absorbing aerosol fraction is high — such as South America and East and South Asia — substantial atmospheric warming can occur. The internal mixing and the vertical distribution of aerosols, which alters both the direct effect and aerosol–cloud interactions, might further enhance this warming. Despite extensive research in aerosol–cloud interactions, there is still at least a 50% spread in total aerosol forcing estimates. This ongoing uncertainty is linked, in part, to the poor measurement of anthropogenic and natural aerosol absorption, as well as the little-understood effects of aerosols on clouds. Next-generation, space-borne, multi-angle polarization and active remote sensing, combined with in situ observations, offer opportunities to better constrain aerosol scattering, absorption and size distribution, thus, improving models to refine estimates of aerosol forcing and climate effects.

Tropospheric anthropogenic aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2013

Olivine Weathering aud Sulfate Formation Under Cryogenic Conditions

High resolution photography and spectroscopy of the martian surface (MOC, HiRISE) from orbit has revolutionized our view of Mars with one of the most important discoveries being wide‐spread layered sedimentary deposits associated with sulfate minerals across the low to mid latitude regions of Mars. The mechanism for sulfate formation on Mars has been frequently attributed to playa‐like evaporative environments under prolonged warm conditions. An alternate view of the ancient martian climate contends that prolonged warm temperatures were never present and that the atmosphere and climate has been similar to modern conditions throughout most of its history. This view has had a difficult time explaining the sedimentary history of Mars and in particular the presence of sulfate minerals which seemingly need more water. We suggest here that mixtures of atmospheric aerosols, ice, and dust have the potential for creating small films of cryo‐concentrated acidic solutions that may represent an important unexamined environment for understanding weathering processes on Mars. This study seeks to test whether sulfate formation may be possible at temperatures well below 0degC in water limited environments removing the need for prolonged warm periods to form sulfates on early Mars. To test this idea we performed laboratory experiments to simulate weathering of mafic minerals under Mars‐like conditions. The weathering rates measured in this study suggest that fine grained olivine on Mars would weather into sulfate minerals in short time periods if they are exposed to H2SO4 aerosols at temperatures at or above ‐40degC. In this system, the strength of the acidic solution is maximized through eutectic freezing in an environment where the silicate minerals are extremely fine grained and have high surface areas. This provides an ideal environment despite the very low temperatures. On Mars the presence of large deposits of mixed ice and dust is undisputed. The presence of substantial sulfur‐rich volcanism, and sulfur‐rich surface deposits also makes it very likely that sulfate aerosols have also been an important component of the martian atmosphere. Thus mixtures of ice, dust, and sulfate aerosols are likely to have been common on the martian surface. Given the fact that it is not difficult to achieve surface temperatures above ‐40degC on Mars throughout its history, it seems likely that sulfate formation on Mars is controlled by the availability of sulfate aerosols and not by the martian climate. The current polar regions of Mars and Earth provide interesting analogs. Large regions of sulfaterich material have been detected on and around the modern north polar region of Mars. The prevalence of ice‐dust mixtures in this region and the existence of sulfates within the ice cap itself are strong evidence for the origin of the sulfates from inside the ice deposits. In addition sulfates have been found in ice deposits in Greenland and Mount Fuji on Earth that have been attributed to forming within the ice deposit. These sulfates can form either through interaction with dust particles in the atmosphere or through weathering inside the ice itself.

Niles, Paul B.↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Phenology Shifts at Start vs. End of Growing Season in Temperate Vegetation Over the Northern Hemisphere for the Period 1982-2008

Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982 2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982-1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000-2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out. Keywords: climate change, growing season, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Northern Hemisphere, phenology,

Jeong, Su-Jong↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗
DOE OSTI2018

The active role of the ocean in the temporal evolution of climate sensitivity

Transient climate sensitivity has been shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of SST and Ocean Heat Uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully-coupled CO2-quadrupling CESM simulation against a partially-coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is the main factor responsible for the reduced transient climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully-coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO2 forcing in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the non-unitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully-and partially-coupled responses.

climate, ocean heat uptake, OHU, ocean, SST↗